Russia Invades Ukraine

[chicago51]

Putin now saying he ordered a halt to the attack because of talk of negotiations. But now says attack will resume.

Ukraine says there was NO offer for talks.

Either Putin is trying to save face for his attack being repelled. Or Ukraine trying to act like they repelled Russia when it was just Putin halting the attack.

Either way there's major propaganda going on from someone.

 

[ShamrockOnHelmet]

What better time to go than under a geriatric scared old man leading the only superpower?

You can believe it is a smart move to do something without liking that someone does it. If Russia wants to assert their dominance over Ukraine, this was probably the best time to do so.

That doesn't mean it's a good thing or the right thing to do as far as the western world is concerned. Are you one of them people who thinks everyone on an opposing team is stupid? Thats illogical. Pretty sure American troops and generals have acknowledged foreign adversaries smarts and savviness in the past. Does that mean they have a soft spot?

I mean, it’s not looking real “smart” now, is it? Believe Ukraine media or not, but even Russia isn’t claiming they have air superiority, and that should have happened in first 36 hours. The fact is they have their hands full when they thought this would be a cakewalk.

 

[GATTACA!]

Putin now saying he ordered a halt to the attack because of talk of negotiations. But now says attack will resume.

Ukraine says there was NO offer for talks.

Either Putin is trying to save face for his attack being repelled. Or Ukraine trying to act like they repelled Russia when it was just Putin halting the attack.

Either way there's major propaganda going on from someone.

Seems unlikely that you'd ask for help from Chechnya and Kazakhstan if you weren't struggling.

 

[Johannes]

What better time to go than under a geriatric scared old man leading the only superpower?

You can believe it is a smart move to do something without liking that someone does it. If Russia wants to assert their dominance over Ukraine, this was probably the best time to do so.

That doesn't mean it's a good thing or the right thing to do as far as the western world is concerned. Are you one of them people who thinks everyone on an opposing team is stupid? Thats illogical. Pretty sure American troops and generals have acknowledged foreign adversaries smarts and savviness in the past. Does that mean they have a soft spot?

I agree with you, but not for the same reason.

I'm not writing this to (further) antagonize you, ND, but the whole "smart/savvy" commentary has bewildered me all week and now I feel like venting. We've seen this cold war playbook how many times now? Sow division, create chaos, sprinkle in propaganda, do superpower things. It's a well-trodden path, and the Russians know it well.

Putin's been working the long game on Ukraine since Maidan threw out his last puppet. Dumping money, weapons, and operatives into separatist groups. The Minsk agreements were designed to fail. He almost succeeded at getting internal US politics to tear down the Zelensky regime, which would have been the master stroke. But no, here we are in 2022 and his sphere of influence is still waning. Time to cash in the chips, I agree, but it didn't matter who was in the White House.

What gets me is the sheer laziness of the end game over the past few weeks leading up to this invasion. All the trouble the Kremlin went through to prop up these separatist groups before recognizing their sovereignty, and did they even try to sell the "genocide" that was supposed to justify it? Was the flim flam about the "car bomb" and the old gasline explosion really going to generate the reasonable doubt that would give cover on the world stage? Maybe all the manufactured evidence didn't make its way to western media (doubtful, they slurp that shit up), but you expect better from Putin.

And then the coup de grace - his speech on Monday that undermines all of it. He went out said the quiet part out loud: it was NATO all along and, P.S., Ukraine doesn't deserve to exist as a sovereign entity in the first place. What the fuck? At least Bush and Company stuck to the WMD charade. Why go through all the trouble just to throw it away at the end?

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

 

[TorontoGold]

One thing is for sure..

i know most or your views lean as strong left ss possible, but it actually is still a real thing in the world to be able to have thoughts/opinions, and make statements of thought/observation that are held separate from one’s actual emotions and feelings. One does not need to be necessarily tied to the other.
Im not sure why it wouldnt be reasonable for him to observe something as smart or well timed, while also not supporting it or believing it is just or right.

Not sure where my prior opinions play into the question of whether it is a good thing to be touting something as smart when it's done by a brutal dictator.

Please share your thoughts and observations on why it is smart.

Using grammar/original thought will make your points hold weight.

 

[TorontoGold]

What better time to go than under a geriatric scared old man leading the only superpower?

You can believe it is a smart move to do something without liking that someone does it. If Russia wants to assert their dominance over Ukraine, this was probably the best time to do so.

That doesn't mean it's a good thing or the right thing to do as far as the western world is concerned. Are you one of them people who thinks everyone on an opposing team is stupid? Thats illogical. Pretty sure American troops and generals have acknowledged foreign adversaries smarts and savviness in the past. Does that mean they have a soft spot?

Is it really smart though? Destroying your economy, alienating your people, and signing up for USSR 2.0 (which was a smashing success the first time) does not seem to be a smart move IMO.

 

[IrishLax]

For why? What is his his sin?

Every Russian oligarch is complicit. Putin is basically a feudal lord that depends on their support to retain power. They could oust him at the drop of a hat if they wanted.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Surprised to see so many advocating for an American-imposed NFZ over Ukraine. That would involve a de facto declaration of war against Russia. Why would anyone want a hot conflict between two nuclear powers?

 

[calvegas04]

This could either be the thermobaric weapons recently sent to the area.

Or

 

[tussin]

Surprised to see so many advocating for an American-imposed NFZ over Ukraine. That would involve a de facto declaration of war against Russia. Why would anyone want a hot conflict between two nuclear powers?

I made that case earlier.

If you implement it under the NATO (or American) flag, what options does Putin have? He either: 1) caves to pressure and retreats, 2) fights conventionally, completely loses air power and gets drawn into an unfavorable ground battle with Ukraine, or 3) goes nuclear and Putin is dead within 72 hours. I think he’s enough of a self-preservationist and logical enough to avoid option #3 and he’s in an undesirable position in either of the other two options. A NFZ may actually limit civilian casualties as it doesn’t appear that the Ukrainians are giving in anytime soon.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

lmao

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I made that case earlier.

If you implement it under the NATO (or American) flag, what options does Putin have? He either: 1) caves to pressure and retreats, 2) fights conventionally, completely loses air power and gets drawn into an unfavorable ground battle with Ukraine, or 3) goes nuclear and Putin is dead within 72 hours. I think he’s enough of a self-preservationist and logical enough to avoid option #3 and he’s in an undesirable position in either of the other two options. A NFZ may actually limit civilian casualties as it doesn’t appear that the Ukrainians are giving in anytime soon.

We have never openly warred with a nuclear-armed opponent before. Risking the end of the world on a hunch that Putin probably isn't ready to die yet doesn't seem wise.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Surprised to see so many advocating for an American-imposed NFZ over Ukraine. That would involve a de facto declaration of war against Russia. Why would anyone want a hot conflict between two nuclear powers?

Pretty sure a UN GA could implement a NFZ. It would not have to be a NATO thing and it wouldn’t have to be led by USA though we would still be involved just like other countries with an Air Force.

 

[tussin]

We have never openly warred with a nuclear-armed opponent before. Risking the end of the world on a hunch that Putin probably isn't ready to die yet doesn't seem wise.

I don’t think implementing a NFZ is analogous to “open war”. At its most extreme, I think it’s more akin to the proxy wars of the Cold War era. Even that’s a stretch IMO.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Pretty sure a UN GA could implement a NFZ. It would not have to be a NATO thing and it wouldn’t have to be led by USA thoigh we would still be involved just like other countries with an air force were in IRAQ

Would Russia on the Security Council complicate this at all though? Declaring a NFZ seems a bit late now, though I'm not sure if there's precedent for this. Perhaps if both sides were targeting civilians in air strikes? It's been a very long time since I've paid close attention to foreign policy.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Would Russia on the Security Council complicate this at all though? Declaring a NFZ seems a bit late now, though I'm not sure if there's precedent for this. Perhaps if both sides were targeting civilians in air strikes? It's been a very long time since I've paid close attention to foreign policy.

NFZs were authorized by the UN in Lybia and Bosnia. I thought it was Iraq as well but that was a US coalition NFZ without UN approval. Im not certain of the UN rules for such and I guess the Security council veto could be a problem but if it is able to passed in GA then I see no way Russia can claim the US is provoking war. As of now the US is letting the European countries make announcements on sanctions and such and taken a back seat there even though we know they are heavily involved in all aspects of this current situation.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don’t think implementing a NFZ is analogous to “open war”. At its most extreme, I think it’s more akin to the proxy wars of the Cold War era. Even that’s a stretch IMO.

It would still result in nuclear-armed opponents shooting at each other. No Western country has ever dared risk that.

 

[zelezo vlk]

NFZs were authorized by the UN in Lybia and Bosnia. I thought it was Iraq as well but that was a US coalition NFZ without UN approval

Right I know that NFZs have been imposed before but do they go through the Security Council?

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[Cackalacky2.0]

Right I know that NFZs have been imposed before but do they go through the Security Council?

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I think so initially but o don’t think that prohibits a country not on the council from originating a proposal on the GA. I could be wrong

 

[chicago51]

Our NATO allies Europe wouldn't want the US to risk war over a no fly zone even less than we would . The US might be able to shoot down an ICBM before reaching the US mainland (though if Russia shot enough of them and enough decoys, we'd still be fucked). But Putin could make England, Germany, France, etc a nuclear waste land in 10 minutes. Yeah we could do the same to him but if he just absolutely loses it he might not care.

 

[notredomer23]

 

[tussin]

It would still result in nuclear-armed opponents shooting at each other. No Western country has ever dared risk that.

So what is the real benefit of military deterrence if our enemies have an asymmetrical appetite for risk? Bad actors with nukes get to do whatever they want because the West would never dare use them? At what point does the the civilian bombing in Kiev get bad enough that NATO kicks Putin to the side like the dog he is?

I don’t know the answers but just asking questions here.

 

[NorthDakota]

You are a 3L, looking for a good law firm position and submitting motions to judicial staff soon.
I have been trying to tell you for a couple of years now North Dakota.

Bro i have no idea who you are. You have no idea what I plan on doing with my degree.

 

[NorthDakota]

Surprised to see so many advocating for an American-imposed NFZ over Ukraine. That would involve a de facto declaration of war against Russia. Why would anyone want a hot conflict between two nuclear powers?

Yeah I don't know all the rules but interfering at that level at this point would be problematic if that's the deal.

 

[Irish8248]

If I recall correctly, GA could say do a NFZ but USA UK FRA RUS CHI all have veto power. And there's some weighted vote to the process that makes a Rus/Chi coalition pretty heavy. I guess my point is I don't know how likely any of this is.

UN = NCAA

 

[NDRock]

What the fuck are you talking about? I dont have a soft spot for Vlad lol. I get that Russia sees Ukraine as part of their dominion/country/whatever. That doesn't make them right. I have been pretty hawkish on putting boots in the ground prior to the invasion because I was thinking that was the best way to stop an invasion from happening.

Literally go fuck yourself dude.

My bad. I thought you were just some douche bag who likes talking shit on here. I had no idea you were so “hawkish” and willing put put others in harm’s way. Didn’t know you were such a badass. Mea culpa.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Well…

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Putin has now put his 'nuclear deterrence' forces on high alert. He just stepped up the potential for mass casualty 100x

 

[notredomer23]

Probably fruitless but it’s something