January 1 | Oklahoma State | Fiesta Bowl

[Whiskeyjack]

Check out which former disgraced ND D Coordinator is pictured on the website:

http://boniksports.com/services

Welcome to the BONE ZONE.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Bill Connelly's SP+ predicts we beat Okie State 26-22, with a 59% chance of at least outright victory:

 

[calvegas04]

Bill Connelly's SP+ predicts we beat Okie State 26-22, with a 59% chance of at least outright victory:

Strange Bama only has a 59% to beat cincy? I think they are going to destroy them

 

[Dizzyphil]

I think the Irish D is going to eat up OK St. Look for at least two, possibly three interceptions. Been watching replays online, Sanders is not that accurate of a passer.

 

[Irishize]

When’s the last time ND played a decent D and won…Wisconsin? They faced trash the 2nd half of the season so the offense may be in for a rude awakening initially. Keep Coan upright and 2-step drop and he should be able to buy enough time to find their footing. Won’t be easy.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Strange Bama only has a 59% to beat cincy? I think they are going to destroy them

Ironically, Cinci matches up against them pretty well. Bama hasn't been able to run the ball reliably for most of the year. They're winning with a Heisman QB and freak WRs. But the Bearcats can rush the passer, and have a pair of NFL- bound CBs.

With a little turnover luck, they could definitely pull an upset.

 

[IrishBoognish]

Ironically, Cinci matches up against them pretty well. Bama hasn't been able to run the ball reliably for most of the year. They're winning with a Heisman QB and freak WRs. But the Bearcats can rush the passer, and have a pair of NFL- bound CBs.

With a little turnover luck, they could definitely pull an upset.

Could you explain to me how Bama only sitting 59% chance yet the spread is 13.5?

(I think I will be betting a lump for Bama to beat the spread on this...)


Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound shitty... I honestly don't get it and you're a reliably knowledgeable poster on here

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Could you explain to me how Bama only sitting 59% chance yet the spread is 13.5?

(I think I will be betting a lump for Bama to beat the spread on this...)


Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound shitty... I honestly don't get it and you're a reliably knowledgeable poster on here

To be clear, I don't expect them to win. But Cinci's strengths line up pretty well with 'Bama, so I doubt it'll be a blow out.

 

[dankgesang]

Could you explain to me how Bama only sitting 59% chance yet the spread is 13.5?

(I think I will be betting a lump for Bama to beat the spread on this...)


Edit: I didn't mean for that to sound shitty... I honestly don't get it and you're a reliably knowledgeable poster on here

13.5 is the Vegas spread, 59% is Connelly's odds. 13.5 points historically works out to about 85% chance of winning. In other words, Vegas likes Alabama a lot more than SP+ does.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Ironically, Cinci matches up against them pretty well. Bama hasn't been able to run the ball reliably for most of the year. They're winning with a Heisman QB and freak WRs. But the Bearcats can rush the passer, and have a pair of NFL- bound CBs.

With a little turnover luck, they could definitely pull an upset.

I think what you listed out is true But one thing you didn't talk about is how Cinci is going to score. Against ND, 10 of their 24 points came on two drives that combined to total 20 yards. Basically gifts. So 14 points thereafter, and this is before the ND defense has really started to gel and mesh.

I think Cinci has the defense to slow Bama down. But I see this playing out similarly to how the Auburn game went from Auburns perspective. Auburn only scored when they were given a short field. I fully expect Bama to completely shut down Cinci's offense.

My prediction is a dominant 31-10 or 31-13 type of game. Cinci may be able to keep it close on the scoreboard for awhile, but everyone watching will know that there is no hope for Cinci. Basically, I think it will be similar to what Bama did to ND last year.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Any chance we see someone besides Salerno back to return punts? Was just thinking about that since Kyren is out.

 

[ACamp1900]

If Cinnci or scUM wins all be very surprised,… either can happen like us beating Bama last year could happen,….

 

[Wild Bill]

If Cinnci or scUM wins all be very surprised,… either can happen like us beating Bama last year could happen,….

I'll be floored if cincy wins for the reasons NDAcc notes above. Bama's struggled most of hte year, at least for their standards, but their defense has looked pretty good. Cincy isn't doing shit unless Ridder plays out of his mind.

I will not be surprised at all by a Michigan win over Georgia. Georgia is more talented but you can't feel good about Stetson Bennett lining up for you to win a big game. That was basically the difference against Bama - Young >>>>Bennett. Michigan isn't trotting out a heisman winner but McNamara is maybe >> better than Bennett. Michigan's run game is bettter, imo. I'm sure some may disagree but I'll take Haskins and Corum over White whoever else they have.

Georgia's D is loaded but Michigan has the best player on the field who routinely shows up in big games as a difference maker.

Kirby shits his pants in big games b/c he's an idiot. Harbaugh shits his pants in big games b/c he's stubborn. I'll take harbs over kirby here.

I think we'll know how this will end after the 1st quarter. If Michigan can run the ball at all in the first quarter, I think they control the game, their defensive ends terrorize Bennett in second half and they win. If Georgia locks them down like they have everyone else not named Bama, they'll score enough points to win ugly. No matter what happens, we all lose.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I think we'll know how this will end after the 1st quarter. If Michigan can run the ball at all in the first quarter, I think they control the game, their defensive ends terrorize Bennett in second half and they win. If Georgia locks them down like they have everyone else not named Bama, they'll score enough points to win ugly. No matter what happens, we all lose.

That could definitely happen, but Georgia's defense was on another planet before they played Bama. Their DFEI is still 1.78.

The Tide won with a Heisman-winning QB throwing the ball deep to freakish WRs, which the skunkbears don't have. Odds are much better that UGA smothers UM than that UM finds a way to run on the Dawgs.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

That could definitely happen, but Georgia's defense was on another planet before they played Bama. Their DFEI is still 1.78.

The Tide won with a Heisman-winning QB throwing the ball deep to freakish WRs, which the skunkbears don't have. Odds are much better that UGA smothers UM than that UM finds a way to run on the Dawgs.

100% agree and I said very similar in the gambling thread. UM just is not going to bully UGA in the run game…not gonna happen, and they simply dont have the QB talent or athletes to attack UGA the way Bama did. UMs entire season is getting too much credit on the back of the OSU win. They struggled with some pretty mediocre teams all year long. Yea UGAs scheduled was a paper tiger until the SECCG but look at what they did to that schedule.

 

[IrishBoognish]

100% agree and I said very similar in the gambling thread. UM just is not going to bully UGA in the run game…not gonna happen, and they simply dont have the QB talent or athletes to attack UGA the way Bama did. UMs entire season is getting too much credit on the back of the OSU win. They struggled with some pretty mediocre teams all year long. Yea UGAs scheduled was a paper tiger until the SECCG but look at what they did to that schedule.

OSU lost to the Ducks.

The Ducks were not not not good. I live in Eugene and watched em every week.

OSU is crazy talented, but I don't think they're terribly well coached outside of their wide outs. Their D is way suss and they can obviously get beat by teams that lose to the likes of MSU and Utah twice.

ND would wipe the floor with Oregon, Utah, and MSU. I know I know.tranistory principals are a fallacy but come on.

Michigan is gonna get sex murdered.

 

[arndtjc]

Any chance we see someone besides Salerno back to return punts? Was just thinking about that since Kyren is out.

Should be Styles

 

[tko]

Wonder if Freeman believes in fair catching everything?

 

[ab2cmiller]

Wonder if Freeman believes in fair catching everything?

LOL. To be fair, there was a significant increase in attempted punt returns this year. BK was living on the edge.

 

[tko]

LOL. To be fair, there was a significant increase in attempted punt returns this year. BK was living on the edge.

Yes, we definitely had some good returns. I get the conservative approach from time to time, but how awesome would it be to have that part of the game a weapon for us? That kid from Utah comes to mind, so dangerous.

 

[Blazers46]

I rewatched OSU ND Fiesta Bowl. The game was close in the 3rd. I honestly think talent wise we were there. Just lost control of the game in the 2nd half.

 

[rtrn2glory]

I rewatched OSU ND Fiesta Bowl. The game was close in the 3rd. I honestly think talent wise we were there. Just lost control of the game in the 2nd half.

We definitely were there talent wise. Probably the best roster we've had in the past decade at least just unfortunately coupled with the worst DC as well

 

[Riddickulous]

I rewatched OSU ND Fiesta Bowl. The game was close in the 3rd. I honestly think talent wise we were there. Just lost control of the game in the 2nd half.

Kept it pretty close despite no Jaylon and BVG calling plays. It's said all the time on this board, but with a competent DC we could've won the natty that year.

 

[NDFAN420]

Kept it pretty close despite no Jaylon and BVG calling plays. It's said all the time on this board, but with a competent DC we could've won the natty that year.

Could have sure but it would have been difficult having a poor Sat HC, as opposed to a darn good Mon-Fri HC. Kelly was frequently out-coached by the other sideline.

 

[Free Manera]

Rees and McNulty are talking to the media now. Rees said the biggest difference so far is how Freeman runs practice. It is a lot of good on good, stressing competition and intensity.

 

[Free Manera]

McNulty said Freeman is stressing sending everyone out as (Fiesta Bowl) champions. This and my last post are night and day different from Kelly. Kelly was business-like, work on our traits, nameless faceless opponent, etc.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Ironically, Cinci matches up against them pretty well. Bama hasn't been able to run the ball reliably for most of the year. They're winning with a Heisman QB and freak WRs. But the Bearcats can rush the passer, and have a pair of NFL- bound CBs.

With a little turnover luck, they could definitely pull an upset.

Don't you dare bring that juju here! If by some miracle UM wins, the last thing we need is for them to play Cincy for a national title.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

Rees and McNulty are talking to the media now. Rees said the biggest difference so far is how Freeman runs practice. It is a lot of good on good, stressing competition and intensity.

Where are you seeing this?

 

[ACamp1900]

Where are you seeing this?

They talk about this in detail in the last KH inside the garage podcast

 

[Free Manera]

Where are you seeing this?

https://247sports.com/college/notre...Bowl-Fighting-Irish-Oklahoma-State-178833565/