2016 Presidential Horse Race

[wizards8507]

The article states why they changed the methodology. What a shocker. When the people doing the number gathering do a better job of getting more accurate numbers from Hispanic areas, there is less adjustment needed.

Also the numbers are relatively accurate (not exactly accurate), so the 90% confidence interval of 11.1 to 12.2 million is rather accurate

Finally come up with a more accurate way.

Holy actual shit. There ISN'T a more accurate way, that's my whole point. I'm not saying "this is a shit method so we need a better method." I'm saying there is no method that will get us an accurate number, so staying 12 million as a matter-of-fact is horseshit.

 

[wizards8507]

They're gonna spin this into a positive somehow....

Of course they are. They did this on purpose. The entire campaign is a giant troll job and people are still surprised when they troll everyone.

 

[Legacy]

How Mike Pence wrote the Republican Planned Parenthood attack playbook

Before Mike Pence was Donald Trump’s running mate, he served in Congress for 12 years.

 

[IrishLax]

You all can spout what you have heard about immigrants assimilating. Knock yourself out. But some of the proudest immigrants that have done the best job of assimilating, did not abandon the culture of their homelands. Expecting them to is part of the great white is right problem this country faces.

See, it isn't about exactly what he said, it's that he said anything at all. Think about it for a minute - - part of the real old-timers approach was to leave each to his own. Want to list the customs, parades, and other cultural events that we have maintained over the last two and a half hundred years from other cultures?

For any who don't understand the hypocrisy of his comments, or defending them. Here is a post :


Dan Wolken
✔ ‎@DanWolken

HE COACHED A TEAM CALLED THE FIGHTING IRISH https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …
1:50 PM - 19 Jul 2016
141 141 Retweets
194 194 likes

and another :


Luke Zimmermann ‎@lukezim


said a guy who made a career for himself coaching a team called the Irish https://twitter.com/woodruffbets/status/755457370663313409 …

1:52 PM - 19 Jul 2016
34 34 Retweets
17 17 likes

For one, I am glad my ancestors didn't give up any more of their culture than they did. I think America is a better place for it.

Bogs, I think you hit the nail on the head, and really got to the core of what people are trying to say.

People shouldn't want people to abandon their culture, and they likewise should attempt to be respectful of other people's cultures/whatever the culture is of the country they immigrated to.

This, IMO, has very little to do with typical immigrants to the United States... however, it has been illustrated in places like England, etc. where some Muslim immigrants have refused to accept cultural norms and instead have had "takeovers" of neighborhoods where they try to impose Sharia law. I think most would agree that it's not acceptable to voluntarily move to a place and then try to disrupt the lives of those living their to fit contradictory cultural norms.

 

[pkt77242]

Holy actual shit. There ISN'T a more accurate way, that's my whole point. I'm not saying "this is a shit method so we need a better method." I'm saying there is no method that will get us an accurate number, so staying 12 million as a matter-of-fact is horseshit.

there is no method that will give us an exactly accurate measure. There is however a method that give us a relatively accurate answer. That answer is that it there is a 90% probability of between11.1 and 12.2 million illegal immigrants. Perfect no, most likely accurate, yes. It is meant to give us a ballpark number and it does.

 

[MJ12666]

More disturbing, to me, was the confirmation that Trump is in this for Trump. The man has no moral compass and no desire to help anyone but himself. He's an unbelievably careless liar who tries to bully and manipulate people in order to get his way. If he doesn't, then it's a condescending "Have a nice life," for you as he hangs up the phone and throws a Trump tantrum. In no way, shape, or form should the POTUS act like Trump acts on a regular basis.



You should read the article. I completely understand dismissing a piece based on the writer, etc. But this is not one of those cases. As pointed out, this is an interview with the author of Trump's book. He spent 18 months shadowing Trump. During which time, he was so close to him that Trump's current wife was upset he spent more time with him than she did. This guy got a glimpse of the real Trump that almost no one else has and the things he had to say about him are appalling and confirm some of our biggest fears (if he were to become President). Donald Trump is a selfish, lying, desperate for attention, manipulating scumbag who will go to great lengths to get his way and help himself before helping anyone else.

Seriously try and be a little objective. If you spent 18 months following around HRC what do you think she would be like. Mother Teresa? She had the nerve to stand on a stage with Sanders to get his endorsement. And there he was talking about income inequality and HRC is bobbing her head after she and her husband a sexual pervert pulled in $20M in speaking fees. But you are concerned that Trump is selfish?

 

[NorthDakota]

Go home, Bog. You're drunk!

Until the whole transcript is available, none of us know exactly what Lou's mindset or intent was. This is nothing more than people who want to be offended by something, anything, using this as an excuse to be offended.

I feel like when i have a chance to see it, I'll probably agree with Dr. Lou. I pretty well agree with the bits and pieces of it that are supposed to be so bad anyway.

 

[TDHeysus]

...They're gonna spin this into a positive somehow....

its part of the media cycle, in order to get the most out of it, it needs to cycle thru again. And the media, being the savage insatiable beasts they are, will be more than happy to oblige. its been happening every week with the Trump campaign since the start, its why Trump has spent the least $$$ in media coverage, and got the most out of it. Just about everything that Trump does/says is talked about as the most egregious thing that can happen, until next week when the next thing happens (and all of the current narrative goes away for the next thing)

rinse and repeat. Trump is a master of media manipulation

example: remember back in november when the media wanted Trump to be pro-David Duke...that lasted about 2.5 days, but during those 2.5 days it was headline #1. Now no one mentions it.

This 'speech stuff' too shall pass.....

 

[Ndaccountant]

Bogs, I think you hit the nail on the head, and really got to the core of what people are trying to say.

People shouldn't want people to abandon their culture, and they likewise should attempt to be respectful of other people's cultures/whatever the culture is of the country they immigrated to.

This, IMO, has very little to do with typical immigrants to the United States... however, it has been illustrated in places like England, etc. where some Muslim immigrants have refused to accept cultural norms and instead have had "takeovers" of neighborhoods where they try to impose Sharia law. I think most would agree that it's not acceptable to voluntarily move to a place and then try to disrupt the lives of those living their to fit contradictory cultural norms.

No dog in the fight, but thought I would add to this, since the history of the topic is fascinating to me. The quintessential example of how short term policy can have an incredibly large, unforeseen negative impact long term.

After WW2, there were labor shortages and many western European countries relied on labor from Eastern Europe and the Middle East / North Africa to fill the void. Hell, Britain allowed immigration from Pakistan in the 1950's since it was part of the empire. This was all well and good until the economy slowed and in the early 1970's there was a downturn. What happened was that those who immigrated didn't leave and it bothered / surprised the governments at the time. Fearing they were trying to become permanent citizens, the governments put in immigration stops starting around 1973. In a not so thought out plan, the stop prevented additional workers from coming, but continued to allow family members of existing immigrants to come. Naturally, those who were still in Europe quickly had their families join them out of fear that loophole would be closed. When that happened, the dynamics of the worker went from living along / with a few co-workers to bringing over the extended family and making it "home". When that happened, the incentive to assimilate was drastically reduced and now the immigrants had to think about needs like schooling, religious accommodations, etc. Naturally, they set their own up or encouraged local governments to aid them, since they were now surrounded by friends and family.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

From this NYT article:

If true, basically confirms the theory that Trump has no interest in actually governing. Raise your hand if you're comfortable with Mike Pence being "the most powerful vice president in history"...

 

[pkt77242]

If true, basically confirms the theory that Trump has no interest in actually governing. Raise your hand if you're comfortable with Mike Pence being "the most powerful vice president in history"...

 

[Irish#1]

Lou Holtz's comments are an embarrassment to the university. I used to respect Lou, because I thought he showed great respect for others. His comments demonstrate that he, in fact, does not respect those culturally different than himself. Lou's life has been blessed with good fortune. It's too bad he's lost touch with his immigrant roots.

Are they also an embarrassment for the U of Arkansas, U of Minn or U of South Carolina?

 

[wizards8507]

From this NYT article:

If true, basically confirms the theory that Trump has no interest in actually governing. Raise your hand if you're comfortable with Mike Pence being "the most powerful vice president in history"...

Pretty much what I was saying before Pence was announced, and the reason I thought Trump should have gone with Newt. He's a creepy, slimy bastard but a Newt Gingrich shadow regime could have actually Made America Great Again (TM).

 

[BobbyMac]

.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Seriously try and be a little objective. If you spent 18 months following around HRC what do you think she would be like. Mother Teresa? She had the nerve to stand on a stage with Sanders to get his endorsement. And there he was talking about income inequality and HRC is bobbing her head after she and her husband a sexual pervert pulled in $20M in speaking fees. But you are concerned that Trump is selfish?

I was waiting for it and you didn't disappoint. I am NOT a Hillary supporter and the problem with your thought process (and anyone else's like it) is that you view any anti-Trump statement or anti-R statement as pro-HRC/pro-Dem. It's insane. And you tell me to be objective? No shit Hillary is awful. But we aren't talking about Hillary. Whenever you (or anyone else for that matter) immediately go on the defensive when your party or your candidate gets called out by spinning the discussion towards someone else comes across as ridiculously insecure. Maybe it's you who should be more objective, eh?

 

[EddytoNow]

Are they also an embarrassment for the U of Arkansas, U of Minn or U of South Carolina?

Yes, they are, but Lou's name is more closely aligned with the University of Notre Dame, especially for participants on this forum.

 

[ND NYC]

Are they also an embarrassment for the U of Arkansas, U of Minn or U of South Carolina?

definitely NOT to Arkansas or South Carolina...of that much I am sure

 

[Buster Bluth]

The only reason this is "offensive" is because he said it at the RNC so the sheeps of the world will twist it into being "hateful."

Well that is the issue, but I think you're wrong in saying it's not meant to be hateful. It was drenched in xenophobia, a disliking of people who don't resemble the 1950s myth of America currently worshipped by Trump followers.

Unless I'm mistaken, he didn't suggest a balance in welcoming immigrants--even legal ones--and recognizing that America is at best a wonderful combination of many ethnicities living and working together peacefully. He didn't describe assimilation the way Wizards did as a balance of keeping one's culture and joining ours. No instead he volunteered to be a speaker at one of the most intellectually sorry gatherings known to man, a political rally, and toss out a speech definitely heard by those in the room as "you're either my version of America or fuck off."

Holtz should be ashamed for generalizing the most vulnerable among us, immigrants and the poor, with his speech.

 

[kmoose]

Well that is the issue, but I think you're wrong in saying it's not meant to be hateful. It was drenched in xenophobia, a disliking of people who don't resemble the 1950s myth of America currently worshipped by Trump followers.

Unless I'm mistaken, he didn't suggest a balance in welcoming immigrants--even legal ones--and recognizing that America is at best a wonderful combination of many ethnicities living and working together peacefully. He didn't describe assimilation the way Wizards did as a balance of keep ones culture and joining ours. No instead he volunteered to be a speaker at one of the most intellectually sorry gatherings known to man, a political rally, and toss out a speach definitely hears by those in the room as "you're either my version of America or fuck off."

Holtz should be ashamed for generalizing the most vulnerable among us, immigrants and the poor, with his speech.

So telling immigrants to assimilate into American culture is now a bad thing? FFS........

 

[IrishLax]

Well that is the issue, but I think you're wrong in saying it's not meant to be hateful. It was drenched in xenophobia, a disliking of people who don't resemble the 1950s myth of America currently worshipped by Trump followers.

Unless I'm mistaken, he didn't suggest a balance in welcoming immigrants--even legal ones--and recognizing that America is at best a wonderful combination of many ethnicities living and working together peacefully. He didn't describe assimilation the way Wizards did as a balance of keep ones culture and joining ours. No instead he volunteered to be a speaker at one of the most intellectually sorry gatherings known to man, a political rally, and toss out a speach definitely hears by those in the room as "you're either my version of America or fuck off."

The bolded is my problem. He's (rightfully and wrongly) being judged by the venue he chose to speak at. He's (only wrongfully) being judged for clipped quotes with no context under guise of people "knowing" what he said/meant.

Holtz should be ashamed for generalizing the most vulnerable among us, immigrants and the poor, with his speech.

I'm extremely confused how he's "generalizing the poor" by saying he doesn't want to celebrate other culture's holidays that aren't his own.

 

[gkIrish]

Well that is the issue, but I think you're wrong in saying it's not meant to be hateful. It was drenched in xenophobia, a disliking of people who don't resemble the 1950s myth of America currently worshipped by Trump followers.

Unless I'm mistaken, he didn't suggest a balance in welcoming immigrants--even legal ones--and recognizing that America is at best a wonderful combination of many ethnicities living and working together peacefully. He didn't describe assimilation the way Wizards did as a balance of keep ones culture and joining ours. No instead he volunteered to be a speaker at one of the most intellectually sorry gatherings known to man, a political rally, and toss out a speach definitely hears by those in the room as "you're either my version of America or fuck off."

Holtz should be ashamed for generalizing the most vulnerable among us, immigrants and the poor, with his speech.

I agree with most of this. I think you can spin what he said in a positive way but I think in the context of where/when he said it, it was clearly meant to appeal to supporters of building a wall.

I don't think liberals have any right to complain considering the stuff they have complained about (i.e. the 4th of July thing someone mentioned earlier) but I don't think Lou should be given a pass.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Go home, Bog. You're drunk!

Until the whole transcript is available, none of us know exactly what Lou's mindset or intent was. This is nothing more than people who want to be offended by something, anything, using this as an excuse to be offended.

Really, kmoose? That's what you are going with?

My whole point is it's not about mindset. Just as there are certain things you cannot say in a crowded room, there are certain things that just saying them in a specific venue gives them a meaning and your comments a life of their own. People have to think about opening their mouths, before they do. When asked Mark Twain explained his silence : "I would rather remain mute even if it left some people suspect of my stupidity, than open my mouth and remove all doubt!" Lou just didn't need to remove all doubt. That's all!

Bogs, I think you hit the nail on the head, and really got to the core of what people are trying to say.

People shouldn't want people to abandon their culture, and they likewise should attempt to be respectful of other people's cultures/whatever the culture is of the country they immigrated to.

This, IMO, has very little to do with typical immigrants to the United States... however, it has been illustrated in places like England, etc. where some Muslim immigrants have refused to accept cultural norms and instead have had "takeovers" of neighborhoods where they try to impose Sharia law. I think most would agree that it's not acceptable to voluntarily move to a place and then try to disrupt the lives of those living their to fit contradictory cultural norms.

Thank you very much. Apparently I picked the right nail!

 

[Buster Bluth]

I'm extremely confused how he's "generalizing the poor" by saying he doesn't want to celebrate other culture's holidays that aren't his own.

I'm referring to his 47% comment.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm referring to his 47% comment.

Ah.

Well, let's break it down:

And he said new immigrants need to assimilate better. Holtz added that his grandparents learned English after immigrating to the U.S. from Ukraine, and insisted his family learn it as well. New immigrants to this country, he continued, need to learn and speak English and “become us.”

So he says "my family were immigrants, and I think immigrants should do what my family did." Not offensive.

He then makes a joke about soccer teams. I understand (slight) offense there.

The 47% comment:

47% of people make a living by the way they vote

What's offensive about accurately noting that most poor people rationally vote in their own financial self-interest? Is it the implication that they aren't working hard to provide for themselves because he says "make a living"? I guess I see that point. But...

When Holtz was asked to elaborate on that final thought, he talked about his impoverished upbringing before saying that his family had no "welfare, no food stamps, no safety net. ... Here's what I learned (from those experiences): I was born in this country and was willing to work hard and get an education and be held accountable for the choices I make. And my parents said, 'We'll take care of you when you're young, you take care of us when we're old.'"

Once again, Holtz is talking from what he thought worked for him as a poor person and drove him to succeed. So I guess it's fine to fault his language choices, but I think it's completely disingenuous to attribute his comments to "malice" as many are doing in the media.

 

[kmoose]

Really, kmoose? That's what you are going with?

My whole point is it's not about mindset. Just as there are certain things you cannot say in a crowded room, there are certain things that just saying them in a specific venue gives them a meaning and your comments a life of their own. People have to think about opening their mouths, before they do. When asked Mark Twain explained his silence : "I would rather remain mute even if it left some people suspect of my stupidity, than open my mouth and remove all doubt!" Lou just didn't need to remove all doubt. That's all.

Really!

Put another way, all Lou did was concentrate on what he didn't want from 'people.' As if it was a real hardship for him to put up with these people as they were acting in their present status.

I don't recall Lou saying anything about anything being a hardship for him. He stated his opinion that immigrants should integrate themselves into American communities, instead of trying to turn American communities into "Little Tijuana" or "Little Mogadishu", or whatever other community they left. Americans have a long history of accepting other cultures' celebrations.......... St Patricks Day, Kwanza, Cinco de Mayo, etc. But don't complain about an American flag in a public building in an American city. And you have no right to demand that social services be provided to you in your native language. If you want the help of American taxpayer money, then learn enough English to at least be able to apply for it. Or befriend someone who can go with you and translate for you.

So, anyone who could be described as being in this state would take it as an attack, lecture, and see the desired results as these people abandoning their cultural roots.

You don't know that. I know plenty of immigrants who came here and worked menial jobs until they learned enough English to put their real skills to use. I used to work with a guy in Oregon who had a Bachelors Degree from the Moscow Aeronautical Institute. He bagged groceries in a store, until he learned enough English to get hired on as an Instrument Technician at the helicopter company that I worked at. He about quintupled his income. He was ALWAYS VERY critical of those Russian immigrants who came to America and didn't bother to learn the language. They wanted to be Russian, on the American taxpayers' dime, according to Pavel.

Conversely, anyone who would not identify as being part of this, or these groups, particularly if they have a lack of imagination or empathy wouldn't see a problem with it.

So anyone who doesn't agree with your interpretation of the meaning of Holtz's words is just a dumb, insensitive white man?

For any keeping score, Lou's comments are directly in opposition to the teachings of the church, opinions of organizations of American Clerics, the American Bishops, and Pope Francis. Just saying.

Who cares? I'm a Catholic. That doesn't mean that I have to automatically buy into everything the Church or its representatives tell me. Thomas had doubts, and he was a fucking Apostle. So I don't think its any kind of sin to not blindly follow every single thing that men in the Church have to say.

 

[pkt77242]

The 47% comment:

What's offensive about accurately noting that most poor people rationally vote in their own financial self-interest? Is it the implication that they aren't working hard to provide for themselves because he says "make a living"? I guess I see that point. But...

I think that the problem with it is that as a statistic is is "red meat" but way too simplified, not that I am really disagreeing with how you see Lou's comment but more in the statistic itself and its meaning.

The first problem with it is that a significant portion of people in the 47% don't vote. I would guess that about only 55% of people making <50k (which is about the median income) voted in the last election.
How to Reduce the Voting Gap | Demos

As for how they vote, it is true that they are more likely to vote Democratic but especially in the male 25-50K range it is close to a 50/50 break. It is true as you say that most of the 47% vote in their interest (when they vote), but there is a significant chunk that don't (probably a 1/3 to 40%, on the higher side for males, lower for women). So there is a large chunk of voters in that pool who will vote Republican, and sometimes the comments that Republicans make, seems like they are ignoring a portion of their base.

Does Your Wage Predict Your Vote? - The Atlantic



*I have also seen the idea that it isn't "income" that changes voting, but that it is more tied to race. I think that it is an interesting idea but I would like to see some stats on it before I agree or disagree with it.

 

[ND NYC]

Here's where I'm at: would Father Hesburgh ever have said what Lou said?

didn't think so

 

[kmoose]

Here's where I'm at: would Father Hesburgh ever have said what Lou said?

didn't think so

Again............... so what?

 

[woolybug25]

So now that the Trump campaign has admitted to plagiarism, are all of you guys that were acting like it was an accident or coincidence going to eat crow? Or just the typical ignore, deflect and move onto next ridiculous argument?

Trump speechwriter apologizes for plagiarism in Melania Trump&apos;s speech - Chicago Tribune

 

[kmoose]

So now that the Trump campaign has admitted to plagiarism, are all of you guys that were acting like it was an accident or coincidence going to eat crow? Or just the typical ignore, deflect and move onto next ridiculous argument?

Trump speechwriter apologizes for plagiarism in Melania Trump&apos;s speech - Chicago Tribune

What do you think is the appropriate level of outrage for it? Burn Melania at the stake? Imprison her in a gulag for 30 years? Fine her $10B?