2016 Presidential Horse Race

[stlnd01]

Too bad technology hasn't reached the point where we could clone Lincoln, Truman or Reagan. We could use some wisdom & leadership of their kind.

(Or FDR). But Amen.

 

[pkt77242]

(Or FDR). But Amen.

I would like to add Eisenhower to that list. Love me some Dwight D. Eisenhower.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Too bad technology hasn't reached the point where we could clone Lincoln, Truman or Reagan. We could use some wisdom & leadership of their kind.

...there is the green party...I'm still mulling it over. I'm mulling over anything on the ballot but Trump and Lucifer.

The Green Party candidate wants to reduce military spending by 50%. So she's toast.

 

[phgreek]

I would like to add Eisenhower to that list. Love me some Dwight D. Eisenhower.

...only cause he said "Military Industrial Complex"...

 

[Bishop2b5]

And when we accuse Trump and other Republicans of being racists, we don't mean all Republicans, we mean Republicans have a higher tendency, trend, or likelihood of being racists. It used to be true that racists in the old Confederacy were diehard Democrats. That all changed when Attorney General, RFK, sent troops to protect black students attempting to enroll in southern universities. And then Johnson pushed through Civil Rights legislation. As a result, Wallace, an avowed racist who had been a Democrat, ran as an Independent in the 1968 election and the Democrats haven't won the old south since. Guess where those voters went?

Actually, the mass migration of Southern Democrats to the Republican party didn't take place until the 70's when the Dems nominated McGovern and started down the path towards today's ultra-leftist progressiveness. Most who made the move were of similar mind as Reagan when he said, "I didn't leave the Democratic party. It left me."

 

[Buster Bluth]

While your opinion of Trump is probably rather accurate, your side is also about to vote for the most dishonest, corrupt, morally bankrupt, and completely-without-character-and-integrity candidate in the history of American politics.

The 19th century laughs at this.

You know we've had Presidents who owned people as property right? Hillary is more morally bankrupt?

The Clintons do suck though.

 

[phgreek]

The Green Party candidate wants to reduce military spending by 50%. So she's toast.

...if she would pitch a true budget cycle where every 3 years you justify your budget from 0, not last year +3% or CPI, or whatever BS they do now and call a budget cycle....I could buy in

 

[Buster Bluth]

Actually, the mass migration of Southern Democrats to the Republican party didn't take place until the 70's when the Dems nominated McGovern and started down the path towards today's ultra-leftist progressiveness.

The Democratic Party objectively moved Right in that timeframe. They moved towards the Right in the 1980s to stay alive politically due to the Reagan Revolution, and further so in the 1990s (...under Clinton...) with adopting pro-corporate stances, and even more so in the 2000s in the wake of 9/11 when they adopted neoconservative foreign policies. Obama has barely even been a modest move left in a party that has gone far Right since the 1970s.

Most who made the move were of similar mind as Reagan when he said, "I didn't leave the Democratic party. It left me."

Reagan, being a fantastic politician, told people what they wanted to hear.

The Democrats had enough of bowing to backward Southerners and passed the Civil Rights Acts. The Democratic Party left them behind alright. On many issues were still waiting for the south to catch up.

The northern Republicans slowly moved to the Democrats at the same time and no the red/blue lines are drawn oddly close to the slave/free states divide.

 

[Bishop2b5]

You know we've had Presidents who owned people as property right? Hillary is more morally bankrupt?

The Clintons do suck though.

Certainly by today's standards and beliefs, owning slaves was a much worse offense. However, keep in mind that people from a few centuries ago were raised in a different time, taught different things, and were a product of their time, no more or less than we are today. Slavery had been an accepted institution in almost every civilization for millennia and was viewed by most as perfectly normal. We view it as a horrible crime against humanity now, but I find it hard to judge too harshly those who were taught their entire lives that it was acceptable. I don't believe most slave owners, whether those in our own country 200 years ago or those of ancient Greece or Rome, were despicable, evil, morally bankrupt humans. I think they were just products of their time living by the views and values of their time.

 

[Emcee77]

Wave of battleground-state polling tells two stories for Trump, Clinton - POLITICO

It's just crazy how unliked both candidates are. It's a crazy system that nominates two unliked and unlikable people to run against each other for president.

 

[Bishop2b5]

The Democratic Party objectively moved Right in that timeframe. They moved towards the Right in the 1980s to stay alive politically due to the Reagan Revolution, and further so in the 1990s (...under Clinton...) with adopting pro-corporate stances, and even more so in the 2000s in the wake of 9/11 when they adopted neoconservative foreign policies. Obama has barely even been a modest move left in a party that has gone far Right since the 1970s.



Reagan, being a fantastic politician, told people what they wanted to hear.

The Democrats had enough of bowing to backward Southerners and passed the Civil Rights Acts. The Democratic Party left them behind alright. On many issues were still waiting for the south to catch up.

The northern Republicans slowly moved to the Democrats at the same time and no the red/blue lines are drawn oddly close to the slave/free states divide.

By the time the Dems moved right in response to Reagan, it was too little too late. The radical move left with McGovern and the embracing of ultra-liberalism lost the South for generations.

Your view of the South seems more stereotype than reality. Race relations in the South are probably significantly better than in the NE and Rust Belt. If your definition of being left behind or not catching up with the North is "not embracing ultra-leftist ideology" then you're correct, but the South is a far cry from what it was in '55 or '65 and bears little resemblance to the typical Northerner's stereotyped image of it.

 

[Irish#1]

Pence isn't a great pick, but he may be the safest. He should shore up most of the #NeverTrump conservatives and help fundraising, and Trump is relying on himself to continue to win over Independents.

The VP doesn't have to do much but avoid being an idiot (Palin) and most people who dislike Pence are those who would never vote Trump anyway. It's not a great pick, but seems like it could be an okay one.

I'm curious as to why you don't think he's a great pick? If anything, this should strengthen Trump IMO. He helps quell the conservatives and is a former congressman, so he'll know how to navigate the minefield that is Senate and the House. I would be very surprised if you can find any baggage on him like you can Gingrich, Christie and some others.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I'm curious as to why you don't think he's a great pick? If anything, this should strengthen Trump IMO. He helps quell the conservatives and is a former congressman, so he'll know how to navigate the minefield that is Senate and the House. I would be very surprised if you can find any baggage on him like you can Gingrich, Christie and some others.

Will he even bring his own state?

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[dublinirish]

I'm curious as to why you don't think he's a great pick? If anything, this should strengthen Trump IMO. He helps quell the conservatives and is a former congressman, so he'll know how to navigate the minefield that is Senate and the House. I would be very surprised if you can find any baggage on him like you can Gingrich, Christie and some others.

are you serious???? the guy hates women more than trump and that's saying something!

 

[Buster Bluth]

By the time the Dems moved right in response to Reagan, it was too little too late. The radical move left with McGovern and the embracing of ultra-liberalism lost the South for generations.

Just because you call it ultra-liberalism doesn't make it true.

If ending Jim Crow is ultra-Liberal, sign me up.

Pinning massive coalition swings on one presidential nominee is silly though.

Your view of the South seems more stereotype than reality. Race relations in the South are probably significantly better than in the NE and Rust Belt. If your definition of being left behind or not catching up with the North is "not embracing ultra-leftist ideology" then you're correct, but the South is a far cry from what it was in '55 or '65 and bears little resemblance to the typical Northerner's stereotyped image of it.

Of course it's gotten better since the northerners ended the South's codified racism..

 

[Irish#1]

Will he even bring his own state?

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I think he will.

are you serious???? the guy hates women more than trump and that's saying something!

No he doesn't. He has a strong view on abortion and definitely isn't a fan of the LGBT movement, but to say he hates women because of his position on those issues is silly. I've never heard a word from him that would come close to what Trump has said.

I've posted this before, but thought I would share this again. Pence's wife used to teach a couple of my kids back in the 80's. The school was having their annual "back to school" night. When we pulled in, Mike Pence had a school bus parked out front with a big "Elect Mike Pence" banner hanging from it. Pence was standing out front shaking everyone's hands asking them to vote for him. While it might not be a big deal to some, I thought it was bush league to use that opportunity to steal some votes when I was there to meet the teacher and talk about my kids. BTW.....I've never voted for Pence.

 

[NDgradstudent]

The Democrats had enough of bowing to backward Southerners and passed the Civil Rights Acts. The Democratic Party left them behind alright. On many issues were still waiting for the south to catch up.

The difference between the North and the South is that Northern whites are wealthy enough to live in all-white areas. Segregation is simply enforced by wealth, not by law. This leads to some hilarious limousine liberal moments in places like NYC.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Just because you call it ultra-liberalism doesn't make it true.

But that's exactly what it was, unless you'd prefer I use the term Radical Leftism or Radical Progressivism.[/QUOTE]

If ending Jim Crow is ultra-Liberal, sign me up.

I don't consider that ultra-liberal at all. It was a needed product of the Kennedy-era Democratic party, not the party that had taken a radical swing left a decade later. The South didn't abandon the Dems after the Civil Rights Act or its associated bills & measures in the 60's. It abandoned the Dems in the 70's when the mindset that caused you to nominate a McGovern took over the party.

Pinning massive coalition swings on one presidential nominee is silly though.

Of course. It wasn't just one candidate, though. It was the Democrats moving from being the party of Truman & Kennedy to becoming the party of the radicals from the 60's.

Of course it's gotten better since the northerners ended the South's codified racism..

Your view of the South is based a lot more on stereotypes, propaganda, caricatured TV show characters, and what you've seen in movies than on reality. Watching a couple of episodes of Scooby Doo doesn't make one an expert on dogs. Watching Mississippi Burning and reading the NYT hasn't left you with an accurate, factual understanding of Southerners either.

 

[Irish#1]

Like it or not, it's Pence.

 

[irishfan]

Why Mike Pence Was Trump’s Least Worst Choice | FiveThirtyEight

Haven't been a fan of Silver's analysis this political season, but this is pretty spot on IMO.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> Great pick. <a href="https://twitter.com/mike_pence">@mike_pence</a> is rock solid.</p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/753967610841010177">July 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is what he needs. Let Pence be the social conservative who reassures the GOP base. He'll shore up most of the #NeverTrump crowd and be a huge help in fundraising. The base Trump has is weirdly rock-solid. There aren't many people who are pro-Trump who change their minds. He should be able to keep slowly pivoting to the center and picking off Independents.

He probably has to go 3/3 in FL, OH, PA to win based on the electoral map (barring VA/CO polls being off), but this could give him a chance to do that.

 

[wizards8507]

I just saw a great analogy from Ben Shapiro on the problem with Trump.

Bush was driving us towards the cliff at 30 MPH. Obama is driving us towards the cliff at 90 MPH. Hillary would drive us towards the cliff at 120 MPH. Trump would drive us towards the cliff at 100 MPH, but he'd rip out the reverse gear.

 

[woolybug25]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> Great pick. <a href="https://twitter.com/mike_pence">@mike_pence</a> is rock solid.</p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/753967610841010177">July 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is what he needs. Let Pence be the social conservative who reassures the GOP base. He'll shore up most of the #NeverTrump crowd and be a huge help in fundraising. The base Trump has is weirdly rock-solid. There aren't many people who are pro-Trump who change their minds. He should be able to keep slowly pivoting to the center and picking off Independents.

He probably has to go 3/3 in FL, OH, PA to win based on the electoral map (barring VA/CO polls being off), but this could give him a chance to do that.

If there was one of his three top candidates that I thought was worst in regards to swaying independents... It would be Pence. A guy that supported "conversion therapy" for homosexuals and was one of the faces of the recent rash of lgbt legislation. He also doesn't even mesh with Trump's platform. He supported "stealth amnesty", said banning Muslims was "offensive and unconstitutional" and vehemently supports NAFTA, CAFTA, and the TPP.

If Kaine is picked by Hillary, he will also get absolutely obliterated in vp debates.

 

[dshans]

So ... buckle up!

Check to see if your airbags are functional and not subject to a recall.

A cliff is a cliff is a cliff.



Unless it's a Norm.

 

[RDU Irish]

I think it is kind of a lame pick - also don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things. Seems Trump wants the spotlight all to himself and picked the most unknown and forgettable persona in the mix. Shoring up the conservatives is a dumb reason if indeed that is the motivation. The same weak willed pukes that created this mess are epically all talk, no walk - calling their #neverTrump bluff is about the easiest poker play in history.

I would have liked to see Newt JUST from a "guy that can really get crap done and work over Washington" perspective. Also know Newt has a sharp enough tongue to score some points. Too many people probably dislike Newt though.

 

[phgreek]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump">@realDonaldTrump</a> Great pick. <a href="https://twitter.com/mike_pence">@mike_pence</a> is rock solid.</p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/753967610841010177">July 15, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is what he needs. Let Pence be the social conservative who reassures the GOP base. He'll shore up most of the #NeverTrump crowd and be a huge help in fundraising. The base Trump has is weirdly rock-solid. There aren't many people who are pro-Trump who change their minds. He should be able to keep slowly pivoting to the center and picking off Independents.

He probably has to go 3/3 in FL, OH, PA to win based on the electoral map (barring VA/CO polls being off), but this could give him a chance to do that.

This thing is about to go social issues, as the press will now skewer Trump and Pence on their opinions and stances. The press will remain near silent on economy and national security (including border). Pence's recent record in Indiana is about to go on trial...I don't think he helps expand Trump's numbers.

The good news for Trump is, Pants Suit Lucifer has to actually get out in front of people now, and she sucks at campaigning....and she rarely goes 8 months w/o a scandal. So we'll see.

 

[woolybug25]

This thing is about to go social issues, as the press will now skewer Trump and Pence on their opinions and stances. The press will remain near silent on economy and national security (including border). Pence's recent record in Indiana is about to go on trial...I don't think he helps expand Trump's numbers.

The good news for Trump is, Pants Suit Lucifer has to actually get out in front of people now, and she sucks at campaigning....and she rarely goes 8 months w/o a scandal. So we'll see.

The juxtaposition between Trump and Pence's beliefs set them up terribly for debates. As you said, social issues will become the topic of choice. In which case, one or the other will have a stance that is easily attackable.

LGBT issues? Trump actually has been pretty fair and non offensive in this regard (probably the only thing), but then he has Pence talking about conversion therapy. Doh.

Muslims? Pence didn't support the divisive comments of late... Unfortunately his running partner coined them. Doh

Immigration? Pence supports amnesty, Trump wants to build a huge Trump Wall. Doh.

If it does go economic in debate...

Free Trade? Pence is an unpolegetic supporter of NAFTA. Trump says he'll terminate the agreement. Doh.


How does this possibly work out for them. It's a terrible pairing.

 

[EddytoNow]

This thing is about to go social issues, as the press will now skewer Trump and Pence on their opinions and stances. The press will remain near silent on economy and national security (including border). Pence's recent record in Indiana is about to go on trial...I don't think he helps expand Trump's numbers.

The good news for Trump is, Pants Suit Lucifer has to actually get out in front of people now, and she sucks at campaigning....and she rarely goes 8 months w/o a scandal. So we'll see.

And Trump rarely goes 7 days without saying something racist, derogatory, or stupid. Trump actually does best when something else dominates the news cycle and he disappears from the public eye. And you know Trump isn't going to stay in the background for long.

 

[phgreek]

And Trump rarely goes 7 days without saying something racist, derogatory, or stupid. Trump actually does best when something else dominates the news cycle and he disappears from the public eye. And you know Trump isn't going to stay in the background for long.

...totally false. Come on Eddy.

It is well known that Mrs. Clinton benefits from media silence, and events in the news other than her....NOT TRUMP. TRUMP has thrived on attention...constant attention.

I know you hate Trump like I hate Lucifer...but what you've just said is inaccurate. People have been bitching since Trump got in that he seems like Teflon. He is not held to account on his statements....now had you said that he will not expand his following because of the things he says...yea.

But his numbers aren't going to drop over any of it either....if that were the case the things he's said, coupled with the intentional misrepresentation in the press of the things he said would have caused that already. The press has successfully put a rope around him, and stopped his growth...adding pence will tighten that rope, but lets not act like Trump is the one who generally benefits from disasters in the news...

 

[phgreek]

The juxtaposition between Trump and Pence's beliefs set them up terribly for debates. As you said, social issues will become the topic of choice. In which case, one or the other will have a stance that is easily attackable.

LGBT issues? Trump actually has been pretty fair and non offensive in this regard (probably the only thing), but then he has Pence talking about conversion therapy. Doh.

Muslims? Pence didn't support the divisive comments of late... Unfortunately his running partner coined them. Doh

Immigration? Pence supports amnesty, Trump wants to build a huge Trump Wall. Doh.

If it does go economic in debate...

Free Trade? Pence is an unpolegetic supporter of NAFTA. Trump says he'll terminate the agreement. Doh.


How does this possibly work out for them. It's a terrible pairing.

YUP. I agree.