Foreign Policy

[calvegas04]

Some of the leaders in the UK are calling it the UK's Independence Day

 

[calvegas04]

And that does it, the BBC is announcing the UK will leave the EU. Hope the US stands by our ally and supports them.

 

[Wild Bill]

And that does it, the BBC is announcing the UK will leave the EU. Hope the US stands by our ally and supports them.

We should colonize them.

 

[BGIF]

And that does it, the BBC is announcing the UK will leave the EU. Hope the US stands by our ally and supports them.

U.S. might but Scotland may end up leaving England as the Scots voted 62% to Remain. Scotland was the largest regional supporter in the Remain vote. Scotland had a referendum in 2014 over leaving England. It failed by 55% to 45%. Brexit could make the difference if a new vote on separation is held.

Reports have England and the E.U. taking two years to work out the exit details.

 

[GATTACA!]

Anyone have a TLDR on the UK EU situation? Haven't been following very closely and I feel lost lol.

 

[calvegas04]

U.S. might but Scotland may end up leaving England as the Scots voted 62% to Remain. Scotland was the largest regional supporter in the Remain vote. Scotland had a referendum in 2014 over leaving England. It failed by 55% to 45%. Brexit could make the difference if a new vote on separation is held.

Reports have England and the E.U. taking two years to work out the exit details.

Yeah Ive been seeing that on the news, they have also said there most likely won't be a vote in Scotland to leave the UK for a while since they just had the vote and if it was to fail again it would look really bad for the nationalist.

It is also looking like some other countries might look to follow the UK and try to get a vote for their countries to leave as well.

 

[BGIF]

Northern Ireland could also be Separation issue ala Scotland. No. Ireland overall voted to Remain in the E.U. but as part of U.K. will leave. The Belfast environs voted to Leave while the outer counties voted to Remain.

No. Ireland and Ireland will have customs issues as they dismantled military border crossings with the peace accords in the 90's. The border today is largely porous. But with different trade alignments, customs/duties would be enforced. The U.K. is Ireland's largest trading partner BUT the 8% drop in the pound places Ireland at a economic disadvantage.

As E.U. immigration/resettlement policies were a factor in the Brexit vote, the U.K would probably want tighter borders controls to prevent for example, Syrian refugees from entering Ireland via the E.U. programs than simply walking across the No. Ireland border than then on to the U.K. mainland.

Much to sort out.

Ireland braces itself for 'definite' downside of Brexit | Reuters

 

[phgreek]

Northern Ireland could also be Separation issue ala Scotland. No. Ireland overall voted to Remain in the E.U. but as part of U.K. will leave. The Belfast environs voted to Leave while the outer counties voted to Remain.

No. Ireland and Ireland will have customs issues as they dismantled military border crossings with the peace accords in the 90's. The border today is largely porous. But with different trade alignments, customs/duties would be enforced. The U.K. is Ireland's largest trading partner BUT the 8% drop in the pound places Ireland at a economic disadvantage.

As E.U. immigration/resettlement policies were a factor in the Brexit vote, the U.K would probably want tighter borders controls to prevent for example, Syrian refugees from entering Ireland via the E.U. programs than simply walking across the No. Ireland border than then on to the U.K. mainland.

Much to sort out.

Ireland braces itself for 'definite' downside of Brexit | Reuters

Big day for those who would like to maybe control their borders a little bit...

 

[calvegas04]

British PM stepping down now

 

[dublinirish]

Terrible day for the UK and Europe and the world, basically

Never been more apt

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cX8szNPgrEs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[phgreek]

Terrible day for the UK and Europe and the world, basically

Never been more apt

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cX8szNPgrEs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

uploader has not made the video available for US consumption...

 

[dublinirish]

uploader has not made the video available for US consumption...

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/B7dBBCHYcZs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[phgreek]

White House Admits Uranium at Iranian Facility Probably Tied to Weapons

Lawmakers Seek to Re-Open ‘Flawed’ Iran Nuke Investigation

...good thing we decided to see how things go before we released their money...wait...

 

[nlroma1o]

So am I the only one waiting until Monday to throw money at the Pound in the Forex market?

 

[Buster Bluth]

White House Admits Uranium at Iranian Facility Probably Tied to Weapons

Lawmakers Seek to Re-Open ‘Flawed’ Iran Nuke Investigation

...good thing we decided to see how things go before we released their money...wait...

That fits in line with what most people knew. Iran, after we named them to the Axis of Evil and decided they were next on George Bush's Middle East Wild Ride, likely scurried towards having a nuclear weapon.

The benefit of having a nuclear weapon is that the US won't invade you, and you get a bigger seat at the table. Ask Pakistan if they think nuclear weapons makes the US treat them differently...

But at the same time Iran probably wasn't going to actually build one. It wouldn't have made sense given their positions in the Middle East chess match with the Arabs. Plus once the US desire to topple Iran was vanquished, they didn't need a weapon for defense. If Iran developed a bomb in, say, 2014, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey would acquire theirs shortly after. Would that have made sense for them considering how well Iran is doing lately? I think not, I think Iran wanted to develop the capabilities but not actually conduct a test.

 

[Buster Bluth]

The EU isn't going to stop trading with Britain if they leave. Britain would be one of their biggest export markets and they need them.

On the flip side, the EU allowing the UK to have its cake and eat it too (even more than they already were let's be honest) would only encourage more EU states to consider leaving the EU too. Germany/France will almost certainly be looking to make an example of the Leave victors.

What's the explanation for Switzerland? Highest quality of life in Europe, low taxes, low unemployment, high GDP, regularly trades with the EU yet they're not a member.

Switzerland (and Norway, etc) still have to trade within EU rules and they don't get any say in how those rules are made. They are at the mercy of the EU in that sense. I read yesterday that they all pay into the EU too. Regardless, these Swiss-EU deals have been made over decades of negotiation and an ongoing neutrality relationship on Switzerland's end, whereas the UK has no experience negotiating new trade deals by itself.

How many points of GDP growth would you take in exchange for ceding our national sovereignty to the UN? Totally incommensurable goods. These sorts of arguments in favor of Remain strike me as particularly inappropriate coming from Americans. We'd never do the same.

Well we kinda did the same in the aftermath of the Revolutionary War when we decided we were better together.

The best argument for Remain is that the EU is already headed toward a crackup, and Britain's got a pretty good deal at the moment, so the more prudent course is to avoid paying the (modest) upfront costs of leaving just to accelerate a process that will happen naturally anyway.

This assumes the EU was on a course for implosion, which now we will never know.

The modest upfront cost may end up being that Scotland leaves, Ireland unifies, and England is on its own for the first time in 800 years. There will likely be a recession and losing a few points of GDP growth over the course of a decade plus is anything but modest.

But those in favor of leaving inarguably have the moral high ground. National sovereignty, particularly given Britain's history, is a precious thing. And the EU is horribly incompetent at governing.

That's like saying voting for Trump to hit the reset button has the moral high ground.

And that does it, the BBC is announcing the UK will leave the EU. Hope the US stands by our ally and supports them.

Well the tricky thing here is that we are strong allies with both sides.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Well we kinda did the same in the aftermath of the Revolutionary War when we decided we were better together.

Yes, the states ceded some sovereignty to their own Federal government in the course of forming a brand new nation. But that was right after we collectively told the Royalists to f*ck off, because we were fed up with a distant and unaccountable bureaucracy.

There was never going to be a "United States of Europe", because outside of a cosmopolitan elite, no one really wanted an "ever closer union". Europe is made up of separate peoples in separate nations with their own traditions, languages and history spanning hundreds (and in some cases, thousands) of years. Good for Britain for deciding they'd rather rule themselves rather than receive dictates from unelected technocrats in Brussels.

This assumes the EU was on a course for implosion, which now we will never know.

Populist and nationalist movements have been on the rise all across Europe for years now. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while.

The modest upfront cost may end up being that Scotland leaves, Ireland unifies, and England is on its own for the first time in 800 years. There will likely be a recession and losing a few points of GDP growth over the course of a decade plus is anything but modest.

The economic argument seems to be little more than fear-mongering by the advocates of Remain. It does not follow that reclaiming national sovereignty will automatically lead to tariffs and other protectionist policies. And as I mentioned before, even if there is an economic cost to doing so, how is one supposed to value national sovereignty? For what price would you sell your legal autonomy, Buster? That Americans are making this argument is f*cking depressing.

That's like saying voting for Trump to hit the reset button has the moral high ground.

Except it's not, because the UK hasn't voted someone like Trump into office (nor do they have an office as powerful as our presidency anyway). This is the equivalent of a non-binding national referendum by Americans to devolve power from the Federal government back to the states to increase democratic accountability, which I would whole-heartedly support.

I'm still skeptical that the UK will actually leave. The EU has been rebuffed by national votes many times before, but they always find some undemocratic way to enforce their will anyway.

Well the tricky thing here is that we are strong allies with both sides.

Our relationship with France and Germany isn't really comparable to the UK. Like calvegas04, I hope we do whatever we can to help the UK navigate this transition as smoothly as possible. But our own Federal government is full of the same sneering "global citizen" types that populate Brussels, so I expect we'll hang them out to dry in favor of a soulless, unaccountable supranational government.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If the EU were a functional political union it would be Juncker and Merkel, not Cameron and Corbyn, whose jobs were on the line today.</p>— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) <a href="https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/746336900701691904">June 24, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[wizards8507]

Except it's not, because the UK hasn't voted someone like Trump into office (nor do they have an office as powerful as our presidency anyway). This is the equivalent of a non-binding national referendum by Americans to devolve power from the Federal government back to the states to increase democratic accountability, which I would whole-heartedly support.

#Texit

 

[BGIF]

Nexit, Frexit or Italeave? British vote fires up EU's 'Outers' | Reuters



<iframe width="930" height="565" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0GN2kpBoFs4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[phgreek]

Yes, the states ceded some sovereignty to their own Federal government in the course of forming a brand new nation. But that was right after we collectively told the Royalists to f*ck off, because we were fed up with a distant and unaccountable bureaucracy.

There was never going to be a "United States of Europe", because outside of a cosmopolitan elite, no one really wanted an "ever closer union". Europe is made up of separate peoples in separate nations with their own traditions, languages and history spanning hundreds (and in some cases, thousands) of years. Good for Britain for deciding they'd rather rule themselves rather than receive dictates from unelected technocrats in Brussels.



Populist and nationalist movements have been on the rise all across Europe for years now. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while.



The economic argument seems to be little more than fear-mongering by the advocates of Remain. It does not follow that reclaiming national sovereignty will automatically lead to tariffs and other protectionist policies. And as I mentioned before, even if there is an economic cost to doing so, how is one supposed to value national sovereignty? For what price would you sell your legal autonomy, Buster? That Americans are making this argument is f*cking depressing.



Except it's not, because the UK hasn't voted someone like Trump into office (nor do they have an office as powerful as our presidency anyway). This is the equivalent of a non-binding national referendum by Americans to devolve power from the Federal government back to the states to increase democratic accountability, which I would whole-heartedly support.

I'm still skeptical that the UK will actually leave. The EU has been rebuffed by national votes many times before, but they always find some undemocratic way to enforce their will anyway.



Our relationship with France and Germany isn't really comparable to the UK. Like calvegas04, I hope we do whatever we can to help the UK navigate this transition as smoothly as possible. But our own Federal government is full of the same sneering "global citizen" types that populate Brussels, so I expect we'll hang them out to dry in favor of a soulless, unaccountable supranational government.

AMEN!

 

[Legacy]

#Texit

And now Texit: Texans consider seceding after Brexit — especially if Donald Trump loses election


From Brexit to Texit: Texas secession movement targets 2018 ballot

The Lone Star State was the 28th to join the Union in 1845, following nine years of being an independent republic. And based on its present day $1.6 trillion economy, if it did become a separate nation, it would be among the 10 top economies in the world, Miller says.

"It's a whole other country."

 

[ACamp1900]

I'm just pissed cause it looked like Celtic to the English system was really, finally, going to happen... Then this shit went down and looks to halt everything. Freaking Brits with their, 'progress'

 

[Buster Bluth]

Yes, the states ceded some sovereignty to their own Federal government in the course of forming a brand new nation. But that was right after we collectively told the Royalists to f*ck off, because we were fed up with a distant and unaccountable bureaucracy.

There was never going to be a "United States of Europe", because outside of a cosmopolitan elite, no one really wanted an "ever closer union". Europe is made up of separate peoples in separate nations with their own traditions, languages and history spanning hundreds (and in some cases, thousands) of years. Good for Britain for deciding they'd rather rule themselves rather than receive dictates from unelected technocrats in Brussels.

I think plenty of Europeans desired to openly trade and travel instead of more wars. The Post-World War II European peace, brought about by the United States' role as a superpower and combining the economies of European powers, has done tremendous good for the average European whether they recognize it or not.

They're going to receive dictates from Brussels whether they like it or not. They simply will not get free trade without agreeing to freedom of movement.

Might I ask, should Britain withdraw from NATO? Surely the UK receives dictates from their American bosses. Should they follow de Gaulle's lead and try to reaffirm their independence in that sense? Thta'd be nonsense, the British quickly realize their best bet was to give up some of that precious sovereignty in return for being best friends with the big dawg on the block. This week they got the chance to choose whether some sovereignty is worth not being a part of the biggest free trade block in the world...

International treaties are complicated, I'm afraid you're too quickly boiling it down to philosophy and your distaste for liberalism.

Populist and nationalist movements have been on the rise all across Europe for years now. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while.

That doesn't mean it's good, or that the British should encourage them.

On a side note, I'm honestly curious to hear how you (or the Catholic Church) compare nationalism with Christianity. It would seem to me that those two philosophies cannot coexist. Surely a Christian worldview has no regard for arbitrary political boundaries. That's not to say one should sign on for being subdued by bureaucrats, but I can't imagine the Church, or you, see the rise of the far Right in Europe and smiles.

The economic argument seems to be little more than fear-mongering by the advocates of Remain. It does not follow that reclaiming national sovereignty will automatically lead to tariffs and other protectionist policies. And as I mentioned before, even if there is an economic cost to doing so, how is one supposed to value national sovereignty? For what price would you sell your legal autonomy, Buster? That Americans are making this argument is f*cking depressing.

Obviously it's a complicated process. But it's a fantasy to think the Germans or French will allow Britain to show the other EU states how easy it is to get an a la carte deal from the EU. The repercussions will be large in my opinion.

Somewhere Napoleon is smiling at the idea of Britain not being able to trade with mainland Europe on favourable terms.

Except it's not, because the UK hasn't voted someone like Trump into office (nor do they have an office as powerful as our presidency anyway). This is the equivalent of a non-binding national referendum by Americans to devolve power from the Federal government back to the states to increase democratic accountability, which I would whole-heartedly support.

I'm still skeptical that the UK will actually leave. The EU has been rebuffed by national votes many times before, but they always find some undemocratic way to enforce their will anyway.

I think it's very much like Trump. Pointing the finger broadly at immigration because the elites have directed the economy away from benefitting the middle class. I, like you I assume, did smile at the idea of the 1% in Europe receiving this wake up call loud and clear. Will its effects amount to a 1848? I doubt it, but sure it is nice to have leaders rethink their policies.

But as someone on the BBC said, that is no excuse to tank the economy. What sort of moral high ground is there in blowing a hole in the economy you and your neighbours participate in?

Our relationship with France and Germany isn't really comparable to the UK. Like calvegas04, I hope we do whatever we can to help the UK navigate this transition as smoothly as possible. But our own Federal government is full of the same sneering "global citizen" types that populate Brussels, so I expect we'll hang them out to dry in favor of a soulless, unaccountable supranational government.

Let's not act like our relationship with the EU isn't important. A quarter of our exports head to Europe.

Yes, we have a special relationship with Britain. But as I mentioned earlier, isn't that an odd coincidence considering the call for increased sovereignty?

I think we should have free trade with Britain, and all of the Anglo-sphere. And really all of the Western World.

On a somewhat separate note, we've also had a special relationship with Scotland this whole time, do we hurry and back them when they vote for independence? What position do we take if a reunification charge in Ireland leads to terrorism?

 

[Irish YJ]

There are reasons for the growing populist and nationalists movements. Until you deal honestly and logically with those reasons in lieu of hiding behind liberal rhetoric, those movements will continue to gain steam.

I'm sure the libs are thumbing their nose at the UK right now. They should be paying attention before things creep across the pond.

 

[Legacy]

Brexit a historic slap in the face for US foreign policy (dw)

What British, European, and American Policymakers Need to Do Now (Harvard Business Review)

What Brexit Means for the Openness of the World Economy (Harvard Business Review)

Post-Brexit Defense Policy (Foreign Policy)

Brexit and Europe's new insurgent parties

 

[Buster Bluth]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XHypqZXDMzk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

I thought this was a good speech on Brexit from a Conservative Party MP.

 

[Buster Bluth]

There are reasons for the growing populist and nationalists movements. Until you deal honestly and logically with those reasons in lieu of hiding behind liberal rhetoric, those movements will continue to gain steam.

I'm sure the libs are thumbing their nose at the UK right now. They should be paying attention before things creep across the pond.

You know the Conservatives over there were against Brexit too right?

I think you're absolutely right about politicians taking notice. As podcaster Dan Carlin (among other I'm sure) have pointed out, it doesn't matter if the middle class is actually worse off, it only matters if they think they're worse off. Knowing politicians, I think they will take the easy path and pour gasoline on the fire rather than rework policy.

I think in the future we will wonder "shouldn't it have been fucking obvious?" after reactionaries drive economies off cliffs.

 

[EddytoNow]

Yes, the states ceded some sovereignty to their own Federal government in the course of forming a brand new nation. But that was right after we collectively told the Royalists to f*ck off, because we were fed up with a distant and unaccountable bureaucracy.

There was never going to be a "United States of Europe", because outside of a cosmopolitan elite, no one really wanted an "ever closer union". Europe is made up of separate peoples in separate nations with their own traditions, languages and history spanning hundreds (and in some cases, thousands) of years. Good for Britain for deciding they'd rather rule themselves rather than receive dictates from unelected technocrats in Brussels.



Populist and nationalist movements have been on the rise all across Europe for years now. The writing has been on the wall for quite a while.



The economic argument seems to be little more than fear-mongering by the advocates of Remain. It does not follow that reclaiming national sovereignty will automatically lead to tariffs and other protectionist policies. And as I mentioned before, even if there is an economic cost to doing so, how is one supposed to value national sovereignty? For what price would you sell your legal autonomy, Buster? That Americans are making this argument is f*cking depressing.



Except it's not, because the UK hasn't voted someone like Trump into office (nor do they have an office as powerful as our presidency anyway). This is the equivalent of a non-binding national referendum by Americans to devolve power from the Federal government back to the states to increase democratic accountability, which I would whole-heartedly support.

I'm still skeptical that the UK will actually leave. The EU has been rebuffed by national votes many times before, but they always find some undemocratic way to enforce their will anyway.



Our relationship with France and Germany isn't really comparable to the UK. Like calvegas04, I hope we do whatever we can to help the UK navigate this transition as smoothly as possible. But our own Federal government is full of the same sneering "global citizen" types that populate Brussels, so I expect we'll hang them out to dry in favor of a soulless, unaccountable supranational government.

England has opted to leave the European Union, an organization they voluntarily joined and could choose to leave at any time. The votes in both Scotland and Northern Ireland were for continuing membership in the EU. So do Scotland and Northern Ireland have the right now to opt out of the British Commonwealth and rejoin the EU? Using the logic of those who support England's right to leave the EU, both Northern Ireland and Scotland have a similar right to be independent. Northern Ireland has a right to seek re-unification with the Irish Republic or complete independence. Scotland also has the right to independence, and I would expect them to ask for another referendum on Scottish independence in the near future.

So carrying the logic one step further, does Ted Cruz lead a Texas independence movement after Hillary Clinton is elected this fall?

 

[calvegas04]

How would it work if Scotland leaves the UK? They share their military and they also use the Pound would switching over to the Euro cripple their economy?