2016 Presidential Horse Race

[Irish#1]

I think GOP turnout is large in part due to anti-Trump Republicans

They haven't shown up yet and if they're going to, it better be sooner rather than later.

 

[Rack Em]

Either 1) Rubio or Cruz drop out, endorse the other, and Trump starts losing states 55-45, or 2) exactly what you laid out. I think it's unlikely that Trump gets to the convention with over 50% of the delegates and there's no chance the power brokers make him the nominee even if he goes in with a plurality. (Yes, I know this is undemocratic, generally bad, and will spell the end of the Republican party as we know it.)

Besides, if Trump is the nominee then the conservatives run a third party candidate in order to get the vote out so they at least win some down-ballot elections. There's no way Trump is ever POTUS. Between losing the primary, losing at the convention, or losing the general, there's zero chance he jumps all those hurdles.

I agree. The GOP would be better served if they let Trump run, create some distance from him as a candidate, he loses, and they try to build the party back up for a run against a 4th term of Obama.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Read my statement on this Thursday night's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GOPDebate?src=hash">#GOPDebate</a>. Click here: <a href="https://t.co/sdaoZQ303N">https://t.co/sdaoZQ303N</a></p>— Dr. Ben Carson (@RealBenCarson) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealBenCarson/status/705110834863800321">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I agree. The GOP would be better served if they let Trump run, create some distance from him as a candidate, he loses, and they try to build the party back up for a run against a 4th term of Obama.

That sort of strategy would require a level of self-awareness that GOP elites (and most conservative pundits) seem to be utterly lacking. Until yesterday, they were all united behind Rubio for what would essentially have been a 3rd term for Bushism. There's been virtually no recognition of their own failures, and how those failures have enabled Trump.

 

[Irish#1]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Read my statement on this Thursday night's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GOPDebate?src=hash">#GOPDebate</a>. Click here: <a href="https://t.co/sdaoZQ303N">https://t.co/sdaoZQ303N</a></p>— Dr. Ben Carson (@RealBenCarson) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealBenCarson/status/705110834863800321">March 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

"Along with millions of patriots who have supported my campaign for President".

Has he even garnered a million votes? Reads like he's getting ready to bow out which he should have done a long time ago.

 

[wizards8507]

Glenn Beck Expects To Be Banned From CPAC For Life Following His Speech On Saturday | Right Wing Watch

Say what you want about Beck, but he's somewhat uniquely positioned in the landscape right now as both anti-establishment and anti-Trump. I'd love nothing more than to see him burn down Fox News and everything they represent.

I would just say that CNN, et cetera, should carry my speech from CPAC on Saturday. I'm just saying they should carry it because there might be some things there might be newsworthy, somewhat of interest to the American people.

 

[Rack Em]

That sort of strategy would require a level of self-awareness that GOP elites (and most conservative pundits) seem to be utterly lacking. Until yesterday, they were all united behind Rubio for what would essentially have been a 3rd term for Bushism. There's been virtually no recognition of their own failures, and how those failures have enabled Trump.

I didn't say it was likely. It's hard to field other ideas when your head is that far up Ronald Reagan's dead ass.

 

[GoIrish41]

Either 1) Rubio or Cruz drop out, endorse the other, and Trump starts losing states 55-45, or 2) exactly what you laid out. I think it's unlikely that Trump gets to the convention with over 50% of the delegates and there's no chance the power brokers make him the nominee even if he goes in with a plurality. (Yes, I know this is undemocratic, generally bad, and will spell the end of the Republican party as we know it.)

Besides, if Trump is the nominee then the conservatives run a third party candidate in order to get the vote out so they at least win some down-ballot elections. There's no way Trump is ever POTUS. Between losing the primary, losing at the convention, or losing the general, there's zero chance he jumps all those hurdles.

I'm with you that Trump is highly unlikely to be the president, but neither Cruz or Rubio are going to drop out any time soon (and, we all know the clock is ticking). I think a contested convention is a real possibility, but it would take some giant balls for the GOP to deny him the nomination if he he has double the amount of delegates as the next closest candidates (and 'twice as many delegates' is assuming that either Cruz or Rubio start really kicking ass in the primaries).

Obviously, I don't want Trump to be President under any circumstances, but I am truly disturbed at the tremendous pressure that is on the GOP this year, even if it was self-inflicted and maybe a little inevitable. I've said many times in this thread and the political thread that a strong Republican Party is a good thing for America. They provide a vital counterbalance to extremes in my party. This is not a shot at republicans, but what is happening in your party is not only bad for the party, but bad for America.

For once, between now and the general election we can get on board with the single-minded goal of not allowing that nutjob into the White House. We might have slightly different motivations for wanting that end (you to spare your party the long term damage, and me to spare the country from the same). I never thought I'd say this, Wiz, but we are on the same team if Trump wins that nomination.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

For once, between now and the general election we can get on board with the single-minded goal of not allowing that nutjob into the White House. We might have slightly different motivations for wanting that end (you to spare your party the long term damage, and me to spare the country from the same). I never thought I'd say this, Wiz, but we are on the same team if Trump wins that nomination.

If Trump's candidacy accomplishes nothing else, it at least brought this board together politically for once.

 

[wizards8507]

If Trump's candidacy accomplishes nothing else, it at least brought this board together politically for once.

#YoungEducatedMiddleClassWhiteGuysAgainstTrump2016

 

[GoIrish41]

If Trump's candidacy accomplishes nothing else, it at least brought this board together politically for once.

And we will all have that memory to sustain us through the dark days of a Trump presidency.

 

[GoIrish41]

#YoungEducatedMiddleClassWhiteGuysAgainstTrump2016

Some younger than others. I am 51 years old. LOL

 

[calvegas04]

I'd love nothing more than to see him burn down Fox News and everything they represent.

Fox news the espn of the news world?

 

[wizards8507]

Some younger than others. I am 51 years old. LOL

You ruined it. Sympatico destroyed. Get out.

 

[BGIF]

...

CNN just reported Carson has announced he will stay in the race. Dana Bash then raised the possibility of the GOP approaching Carson with the suggestion to drop out of the presidental race to pursue the Senate Seat Rubio is vacating.

Dana Bash looking prescient.


3/2/16 2:48 ET

Ben Carson doesn't see 'a political path forward' - CNNPolitics.com

Ben Carson doesn't "see a political path forward" in the Republican presidential nomination process, and will not attend Thursday's GOP presidential debate in his hometown of Detroit, he said in a statement.

The retired neurosurgeon and his aides reached the decision after a staff meeting Wednesday morning in Baltimore after a disappointing finish on Super Tuesday.

Carson said he's not planning on formally suspending his presidential campaign and will go into more detail during an appearance at the Conservative Political Action Committee Conference near Washington on Friday.

But it appears to end what once seemed like a promising campaign for the first-time political candidate. He was the first GOP candidate to overtake Donald Trump in the polls for a period of several weeks around October 2015. But as fall turned to winter, Carson consistently lost ground to Trump and later Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Republican operatives, looking to move Carson out of the race as they try to remove obstacles to finding a challenger to Donald Trump, were planning Wednesday to suggest he drop out and instead run for the U.S. Senate seat in Florida. He also suggested the five remaining candidates meet before the Detroit debate to try and work out their differences.

Carson never made a cogent argument for his candidacy, running mostly on his biography rather than policy and political views. Carson undisputedly had an impressive personal story to tell. He overcame a troubled youth in inner-city Detroit, becoming a star student and eventually a world-class neurosurgeon. He won international acclaim in the late 980s after successfully separating conjoined twins.

In June 2008, President George W. Bush awarded Carson the Medal of Freedom, the nation's highest civilian award. "For a time, young Ben Carson was headed down that same path," Bush said at the time. "Yet through his reliance on faith and family, he turned his life into a sharply different direction."

But Carson's origin story took a hit after a CNN report raised questions about claims he made about violent episodes as a youth. Trump, rising in the polls, took to mocking Carson, particularly over a story from the surgeon's memoir about Carson attempting to stab a friend -- the knife broke in a half after hitting a large belt buckle.

Carson's debate performances didn't help, either. He often seemed halting in his speech patterns in a forum that prizes quick and snappy soundbites. And his command of policy appeared shaky -- he asserted that the Chinese were in Syria, a claim the White House disputed. He repeatedly deflected questions on how to confront ISIS, among other foreign policy challenges. Even on health care, Carson's seeming specialty, he didn't have many specifics to offer beyond saying that Obamacare should be abolished.

Carson's campaign also suffered internal conflicts, with competing power centers often at odds. In the run-up to the Iowa caucuses, a contest that was crucial to his chances because of his connections with evangelicals, the tensions came to a head, with his top advisers leaving the campaign. Adding to the turmoil, Carson's former advisers were unusually public in their criticism of Carson as a candidate and of his campaign structure.

When voting actually began, with the February 1 Iowa caucuses, Carson wasn't much of a factor except as a spoiler. He finished fourth at 9.3%. His New Hampshire primary showing was even worse. Carson finished eighth, with only 2.3% of the vote -- ahead only of candidates who had dropped out of the race but whose names remained on the ballot. Then in the February 20 South Carolina primary, Carson finished sixth, with less than 8% of the vote.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Group Hug

 

[woolybug25]

I never thought I'd say this, Wiz, but we are on the same team if Trump wins that nomination.

If Trump's candidacy accomplishes nothing else, it at least brought this board together politically for once.

#YoungEducatedMiddleClassWhiteGuysAgainstTrump2016

He is well aware...

“I really unify and bring people together,” Trump said. "A lot of people would say the exact opposite. I can really bring people together."

 

[gkIrish]

I apologize if this has already been discussed but does Trump even actually want to be President....or does he just want to win the election? How is he going to run his businesses and be president at the same time? Is he going to give up living in whatever penthouse he lives in to be in the White House? Does he want to travel to random countries and play the diplomat? Does he want to take photos with random people who did him a favor?

I guess he could choose not to do some of those things but I don't get how this would work logistically....

 

[calvegas04]

I apologize if this has already been discussed but does Trump even actually want to be President....or does he just want to win the election? How is he going to run his businesses and be president at the same time? Is he going to give up living in whatever penthouse he lives in to be in the White House? Does he want to travel to random countries and play the diplomat? Does he want to take photos with random people who did him a favor?

I guess he could choose not to do some of those things but I don't get how this would work logistically....

His son is already running his company for him

 

[Irish#1]

I apologize if this has already been discussed but does Trump even actually want to be President....or does he just want to win the election? How is he going to run his businesses and be president at the same time? Is he going to give up living in whatever penthouse he lives in to be in the White House? Does he want to travel to random countries and play the diplomat? Does he want to take photos with random people who did him a favor?

I guess he could choose not to do some of those things but I don't get how this would work logistically....

Did you forget about his huge ego?

 

[GATTACA!]

I apologize if this has already been discussed but does Trump even actually want to be President....or does he just want to win the election? How is he going to run his businesses and be president at the same time? Is he going to give up living in whatever penthouse he lives in to be in the White House? Does he want to travel to random countries and play the diplomat? Does he want to take photos with random people who did him a favor?

I guess he could choose not to do some of those things but I don't get how this would work logistically....

To be the most powerful person in the world? Yeah I think he'd give up running his business for a few years for that.

 

[RDU Irish]

Either 1) Rubio or Cruz drop out, endorse the other, and Trump starts losing states 55-45, or 2) exactly what you laid out. I think it's unlikely that Trump gets to the convention with over 50% of the delegates and there's no chance the power brokers make him the nominee even if he goes in with a plurality. (Yes, I know this is undemocratic, generally bad, and will spell the end of the Republican party as we know it.)

Besides, if Trump is the nominee then the conservatives run a third party candidate in order to get the vote out so they at least win some down-ballot elections. There's no way Trump is ever POTUS. Between losing the primary, losing at the convention, or losing the general, there's zero chance he jumps all those hurdles.

Wishful thinking, IMO. March 15th is when "winner take all" starts in full swing - 295 delegates on that day alone will be decided by that method. No way Rubio/Cruz become wonder twins by then. Florida is a an 800lb gorilla in that room with 99 winner take all delegates. Trump has more support in polls in Rubios home state than Rubio and Cruz combined which is the case in most states.

If Trump sweeps those 295 delegates it will be inevitable since he likely has the current 319 plus probably 40% of those between now and March 15 (equal to about 168) totaling 782 with about 1000 other delegates to be decided.

I mean, California is winner take all. You really think Trump isn't going to take down those 172 at the end? Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota are all final states with CA and add up to another 107 winner take all delegates.

In total there are 843 winner take all up for grabs. So far Trump as lost Cruz's home state(s) of Texas and Oklahoma along with Iowa, Alaska and Minnesota. He is 10 out of 15 and if he keeps that average for winner take all states he is well over what is needed to get over half the delegates.

Like it or not, Trump is building momentum and going to take some fancy footwork to prevent his nomination. I would call it the opposite of a sure thing.

 

[Blaise]

Either 1) Rubio or Cruz drop out, endorse the other, and Trump starts losing states 55-45, or 2) exactly what you laid out. I think it's unlikely that Trump gets to the convention with over 50% of the delegates and there's no chance the power brokers make him the nominee even if he goes in with a plurality. (Yes, I know this is undemocratic, generally bad, and will spell the end of the Republican party as we know it.)

Besides, if Trump is the nominee then the conservatives run a third party candidate in order to get the vote out so they at least win some down-ballot elections. There's no way Trump is ever POTUS. Between losing the primary, losing at the convention, or losing the general, there's zero chance he jumps all those hurdles.

Seem to be hedging that bet Wiz..... It's like saying team X won't win 10 games, but if they do they def won't make the 4 team playoff, but if they do they def won't win the national championship...

I agree I don't see any way Trump becomes POTUS.. but its looking more and more likely he will be the nom

 

[RDU Irish]

I'm with you that Trump is highly unlikely to be the president, but neither Cruz or Rubio are going to drop out any time soon (and, we all know the clock is ticking). I think a contested convention is a real possibility, but it would take some giant balls for the GOP to deny him the nomination if he he has double the amount of delegates as the next closest candidates (and 'twice as many delegates' is assuming that either Cruz or Rubio start really kicking ass in the primaries).

Obviously, I don't want Trump to be President under any circumstances, but I am truly disturbed at the tremendous pressure that is on the GOP this year, even if it was self-inflicted and maybe a little inevitable. I've said many times in this thread and the political thread that a strong Republican Party is a good thing for America. They provide a vital counterbalance to extremes in my party. This is not a shot at republicans, but what is happening in your party is not only bad for the party, but bad for America.

For once, between now and the general election we can get on board with the single-minded goal of not allowing that nutjob into the White House. We might have slightly different motivations for wanting that end (you to spare your party the long term damage, and me to spare the country from the same). I never thought I'd say this, Wiz, but we are on the same team if Trump wins that nomination.

I know math is not a liberal strong suit but if Trump has double the next highest candidate in a three person race that would guarantee he has over half the delegates. While there is an outside chance Kasich and Carson's meager delegate count and Rubio/Cruz being neck and neck would open up the possibility of less than half, it would be an large outlier in a range of potential outcomes.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

He is well aware...

Just as Hitler brought the Allied powers together.

 

[woolybug25]

Just as Hitler brought the Allied powers together.

The knuckle-draggers instinctively flock, like the salmon of Capistrano...

 

[kmoose]

The knuckle-draggers instinctively flock, like the salmon of Capistrano...

For the love of God, get it right would you?


It's San Juan Capistrano!

 

[kmoose]

Greedy rich old white men. They exist in both parties, but they have more influence with Republicans, who favor cutting their taxes and, at the same time, cutting back programs that benefit the less fortunate, the poor, the elderly, the sick, etc.

If Trump is the nominee, then it doesn't matter, because Trump will thumb his nose at the RNC just as quickly as he will at the DNC. So what is the Democrats' answer? Completely submarine the one guy on their side who could withstand his party's pressure to appease a bunch of greedy rich old white guys, in favor of a no-talent hack who has taken at least $20M from "Wall Street types". Their hypocrisy is almost comical.

 

[GoIrish41]

Another one bites the dust. Which candidates will his nine supporters gravitate toward?

Ben Carson Super Tuesday results: No 'political path' to GOP nomination he can see - POLITICO

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Another one bites the dust. Which candidates will his nine supporters gravitate toward?

Ben Carson Super Tuesday results: No 'political path' to GOP nomination he can see - POLITICO

Trump.

From gifted hands, to gifted hair.