That would result in:
Germany 6
USA 4
Portugal 1
Ghana 0
Not a lock to advance. Ghana would be eliminated but Portugal could beat Ghana and pass us on GD if we lose to Germany
I don't see how that's the best result. It would make it easier to win the group because Germany would have less points but we just need to advance.
Yeah, we'd be coming into the Germany game +1 and Portugal would be -4 in differential. We'd also be net +2 in the goals scored. So basically Portugal would have to out-result us by 5 goals AND pick up 3 goals in overall goals scored to get through... i.e.
Germany 2 USA 0 coupled with Portugal 3 Ghana 0... or Germany 1 USA 0 coupled with Portugal 4 Ghana 0. Germany 3 USA 1 coupled with Portugal 3 Ghana 0 or similar would put us into more tiebreakers and I think to drawing lots... simply put, if Germany wins today then it's going to take a HORRID showing against Germany and an all-time great showing by Portugal against Ghana for us to be eliminated. The odds of both those happening is less than 5%.
Mathematically a draw between Ghana and Germany gives us more "outs" to get through but in reality it would mean Germany would bring their A game in match 3. If Germany is instead at 6 points and through the odds are strongly against them running up the score.
