ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[PANDFAN]

not buying the okl st hype train....they beat some directional michigan/ark teams, texas san antonio, 3 point win vs texas, 2 point win vs terrible ksu team, 7 pointer to wvu, gave up 50 points to texas tech and beat good an over hyped tcu...the tcu team's best win was over WVU who is 4-4....sorry folks, just not buying it

 

[Blaise]

not buying the okl st hype train....they beat some directional michigan/ark teams, texas san antonio, 3 point win vs texas, 2 point win vs terrible ksu team, 7 pointer to wvu, gave up 50 points to texas tech and beat good an over hyped tcu...the tcu team's best win was over WVU who is 4-4....sorry folks, just not buying it

Well we don't have to "buy" anything... If they run the table they are in.. If they drop a game they are out.. They have to prove it on the field

 

[ulukinatme]

Hype train or not, if they run the table they'll most likely get in. At only one loss, probably every Big 12 team is out aside from Oklahoma.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Three teams with three wins vs FEI top 30: Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU <a href="https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ">https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ</a></p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/663708586573471744">November 9, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Blaise]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Three teams with three wins vs FEI top 30: Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU <a href="https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ">https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ</a></p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/663708586573471744">November 9, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Which is what scares me about LSU... If they win out... They could get in... Rooting hard for MSU or MICH to beat OSU... The less undefeateds the better

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Three teams with three wins vs FEI top 30: Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU <a href="https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ">https://t.co/JLK1sCjfBQ</a></p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/663708586573471744">November 9, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Huge stat. You have to think the committee has a similar metric that takes that fact into account.

 

[ulukinatme]

Which is what scares me about LSU... If they win out... They could get in... Rooting hard for MSU or MICH to beat OSU... The less undefeateds the better

Definitely, although I think we can expect that some team from the SEC and B1G conferences will get in at this point along with Clemson. Chaos can still happen though and make things interesting, it has a tendency of doing that in November.

 

[Booslum31]

Our SOS is going to take a big hit in the next two weeks. Hope we can hang on. We will definitely need shit to happen. But I'll be rooting for Clemson and Stanford for sure...and eveyone else that we have played especially Navy.

 

[koonja]

LSU's late TD really sucks because that game was a dominant performance with LSU giving up over 400 yards and not reaching 200 yards. It kind of showed there's no way LSU is on the same level as the best team in the country. Maybe true for other teams too, but can't say that because so many haven't faced Bama,

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

I have seen this posted on the boards a few times, but it could not be reiterated enough. If we win out, everything else will work itself out. This is college football folks, and it is hard to come out and win a game every single week. look how many teams are undefeated. Look how many finished undefeated last year. Teams are going to lose, it always happens. Always. But point being, win out, take care of business, and we have a 95% chance to make the playoffs IMO.

 

[Booslum31]

I have seen this posted on the boards a few times, but it could not be reiterated enough. If we win out, everything else will work itself out. This is college football folks, and it is hard to come out and win a game every single week. look how many teams are undefeated. Look how many finished undefeated last year. Teams are going to lose, it always happens. Always. But point being, win out, take care of business, and we have a 95% chance to make the playoffs IMO.

I hear ya. But if OSU, Bama, Baylor, and Clemson win out then I think we are on the outside looking in.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

538's model gives us a 35% chance of making the playoff, which moves ND into the top 4.

 

[Cackalacky]

Which is what scares me about LSU... If they win out... They could get in... Rooting hard for MSU or MICH to beat OSU... The less undefeateds the better

Yeah.... LSU is still in it. I don't think Florida makes it even if they win the championship, too much ground to make up IMO. Obviously we know more tomorrow but I can't imagine the Committee being too impressed with a struggle at home against Vandy.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

I hear ya. But if OSU, Bama, Baylor, and Clemson win out then I think we are on the outside looking in.

I agree with that 100%. Id like to see the odds of that scenerio

 

[Old Man Mike]

Unless there's a BIG12 undefeated, this is no discussion at all --- I am of course assuming an 11-1 ND. But I don't believe that there will be an OBVIOUS favorable discussion even to an unbeaten BIG12 team. Why?

A). If Clemson sweeps, they'll stay number 1, and we'll bask in the glow;
B). If we become nested at the number4 position, and psychologically supported by Clemson's august felt eminence, we are very unlikely to be budged out of there going down the stretch;
--- this is human psychology --- the Committee is going to begin to believe that everything that they HAVE believed the previous several weeks is still true; and one of those things is: why be impressed with the BIG12 beating each other, when it's questionable whether ANY of them are close to playoff worthy?
C). Along comes the final week, and we're still #4; Stanford has crept up close to the magic numbers themselves, and their resume is looking better to the Committee than anyone's in the BIG12. AND WE WIN.

Then "we in."

And with Clemson at number 1, and ND at number 4, we play Clemson --- something else that the Committee might like to see. {OSU and Alabama can then beat each other up in the other semi}.

 

[koonja]

Big12 will jump us in next 2 weeks if OK ST wins, but we'll jump them right back if Stanford wins through our game and we beat them. And if that's not enough, if Stanford goes on to win the pac 12, I see no way we're not in, even if OK ST is undefeated.

 

[NDRock]

Tennessee is a lock to finish 8-4 (vs. North Texas, at Mizzou, vs. Vandy), and will 100% be ranked to finish the year. Their losses were by 7 points to Oklahoma, 1 point to Florida, 4 points to Arkansas, and 5 points to Bama.

IF both ND and OU finish 11-1, it will be interesting. They will have 4 wins over Top-25 opponents....including three straight to end the season. Their loss was to Texas was bad, but we would really need Stanford to win the PAC-12 and USC/Navy/Temple to all finish ranked for us to be clearly ahead of them in the final rankings.

Of course, if they go 11-1 and tie with another 11-1 Big-12 team...the committee might say screw the Big-12 like last season.

This is where the Big-12 screws themselves. If they can't even decide who the best team in their own conference is, how can the Committee. I think they would have had a much better chance to get in last year if they had one conference champion instead of this 3-way tie b.s.

 

[RDU Irish]

538's model gives us a 35% chance of making the playoff, which moves ND into the top 4.

ND's odds IF we win out is the real question. They probably give us a 50% chance of winning out which might double our odds to 70% under the assumption we win. Probably a fair number given B1G, SEC, B12 odds of ALL jumping a one loss ND.

So they give MSU a 10% chance of making the playoff but Iowa 8%? That is really odd to me as a B1G champ is only controlling their own destiny if they are undefeated. To me the question to ND - what are the odds of OSU OR Iowa coming out unblemished? Maybe something like 50% (which assumes Iowa is more than 8% likely to run the table)? A one loss B1G champ takes a back seat to the Irish, IMO.

Whoever comes out of the SEC CCG with one loss is in. I have no doubt they will make room for a one loss SEC winner. The rest of the world has to blow up for TWO SEC teams to come in - I think they will give preference to more conferences being represented. So what are the odds of Florida OR Alabama coming out of the CCG with one loss? Maybe something like 75% if I think Florida is a coin flip against FSU and Bama is not going to be horribly challenged to finish the year.

 

[ulukinatme]

This is where the Big-12 screws themselves. If they can't even decide who the best team in their own conference is, how can the Committee. I think they would have had a much better chance to get in last year if they had one conference champion instead of this 3-way tie b.s.

"One True Champion!"

 

[ab2cmiller]

I can't remember the exact rankings but ESPN had projected what the SOS rankings will be at the end of the season (obviously making assumptions on who would win the remaining games) and ND's SOS ranking was still around 15 while nobody from the Big 12 was very close even with the top teams schedules being backloaded. As long as Stanford keeps winning we will be fine.

As far as Oklahoma State goes, I think they will get beat twice by Baylor and Okalahoma. Oklahoma St. beat TCU because of 4 interceptions by Boykins, 3 of which led directly to Touchdowns. Unless they can generate those kinds of turnovers against Baylor and Oklahoma, they will lose.

 

[NDRock]

"One True Champion!"

I personally like the 10 team conference where you actually play everyone in your conference. They just need to figure out some tiebreaker system and only have one champion.

 

[Blaise]

Big12 will jump us in next 2 weeks if OK ST wins, but we'll jump them right back if Stanford wins through our game and we beat them. And if that's not enough, if Stanford goes on to win the pac 12, I see no way we're not in, even if OK ST is undefeated.

If a power 5 conference team is undefeated.. there is NO way they don't make the playoff

 

[irishfan]

Unless there's a BIG12 undefeated, this is no discussion at all --- I am of course assuming an 11-1 ND. But I don't believe that there will be an OBVIOUS favorable discussion even to an unbeaten BIG12 team. Why?

A). If Clemson sweeps, they'll stay number 1, and we'll bask in the glow;
B). If we become nested at the number4 position, and psychologically supported by Clemson's august felt eminence, we are very unlikely to be budged out of there going down the stretch;
--- this is human psychology --- the Committee is going to begin to believe that everything that they HAVE believed the previous several weeks is still true; and one of those things is: why be impressed with the BIG12 beating each other, when it's questionable whether ANY of them are close to playoff worthy?
C). Along comes the final week, and we're still #4; Stanford has crept up close to the magic numbers themselves, and their resume is looking better to the Committee than anyone's in the BIG12. AND WE WIN.

Then "we in."

And with Clemson at number 1, and ND at number 4, we play Clemson --- something else that the Committee might like to see. {OSU and Alabama can then beat each other up in the other semi}.

TCU was #4 last year going into conference championship week. They finished #6.

 

[woolybug25]

I'm not sweating Okst. They still play Baylor and Oklahoma.

 

[Blaise]

I'm not sweating Okst. They still play Baylor and Oklahoma.

I watched Baylor against K St and I am not impressed with the fresh qb... I think they handle them... We need Oklahoma to mack them down

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

I watched Baylor against K St and I am not impressed with the fresh qb... I think they handle them... We need Oklahoma to mack them down

Right. I think it is very unlikely Baylor gets passed Oklahoma, OK ST, and TCU three weeks in a row. especially when you consider their games against Kstate(31-24) and Iowa St(45-27).

 

[ab2cmiller]

It would be kind of funny if Iowa State upsets them and costs them a chance at the playoff like they cost them a chance for the BCS game 4 years ago.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

TCU was #4 last year going into conference championship week. They finished #6.

TCU was #4 with three weeks left to play. Those games were Kansas, Texas, Iowa State. Not exactly cream of the crop. It's why they got bumped by OSU (who straight dominated in their championship game, a game that doesn't exist in the Big12 btw). They got bumped by Baylor as well due to head-to-head.

The ACC, SEC, and B1G should get a team in. ND will potentially haven beaten out the PAC representative, leaving only a rep from the Big12 fighting for a 4th spot. At that point, one has to be undefeated to even sniff a chance at pushing out ND because any 1-loss Big12 team will not win out in SOS vs ND.

 

[Blaise]

TCU was #4 with three weeks left to play. Those games were Kansas, Texas, Iowa State. Not exactly cream of the crop. It's why they got bumped by OSU (who straight dominated in their championship game, a game that doesn't exist in the Big12 btw). They got bumped by Baylor as well due to head-to-head.

The ACC, SEC, and B1G should get a team in. ND will potentially haven beaten out the PAC representative, leaving only a rep from the Big12 fighting for a 4th spot. At that point, one has to be undefeated to even sniff a chance at pushing out ND because any 1-loss Big12 team will not win out in SOS vs ND.

I think its silly to assume a 1 loss LSU is eliminated... If Bama wins out.. LSU is in same boat as us... One loss to a top 2 team... If they dominate teams down the stretch, don't be surprised.. It will be interesting to see where they are ranked tomorrow.. If they are still top 7 or 8.. Watch out

 

[koonja]

I think its silly to assume a 1 loss LSU is eliminated... If Bama wins out.. LSU is in same boat as us... One loss to a top 2 team... If they dominate teams down the stretch, don't be surprised.. It will be interesting to see where they are ranked tomorrow.. If they are still top 7 or 8.. Watch out

But those losses aren't the same. LSU had like 184 total yards and gave up 450.

We outgained Clemson by 148 yards and gave up 4 fumbles. There's no way the committee will look at those losses to the 2 best teams and say they're the same. And with beating Stanford, we'll have the 'best win' between us and LSU.