Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[ab2cmiller]

Aren't lines set by Vegas to where they think gambling will be 50/50 on each side? Seems entirely determined by public feeling.

This is correct. Lines are not set on what they think the final score will be. The lines are set with a goal of 50/50 on each side. They get to much action on one team, the line moves.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Okay, this is the last I'll say on the matter because it's getting circular. I'm only being negative when juxtaposed with the over-the-top positivity. I'm actually quite positive, but temperately so. I'm very happy with the job Kelly is doing this season. Calling that negative is akin to calling a Corvette "cheap" because it's not as expensive as a Ferrari.

It is irrational to insist that we credit your "eye ball" test over objective measures of SoS that indicate we've played one of the toughest slates in the country thus far.

It is also deeply cynical: (1) to be nit-picking Kelly's play-calling when our offense is putting up historically good numbers; and (2) to be policing enthusiasm levels on the board when we're still in contention for a play-off spot despite absurd levels of attrition. For f*ck's sake, as an alumnus you should be enjoying Team 127 immensely instead of speculating about who might do a better job than Kelly. That's textbook NDNation douche baggery.

 

[wizards8507]

I've never gambled on sports, and didn't want to ask, but I personally have no idea how Vegas makes money on sports lines. Isn't if like, if the spread is -11, they want half of the people to take the over, half to take the under, then Vegas prays the game ends an exact 11 point difference, then they collect from both sides?

Is that at all accurate?

There's usually a commission, so it's not a 1:1 payout even if action is 50/50 on both sides.

 

[koonja]

There's usually a commission, so it's not a 1:1 payout even if action is 50/50 on both sides.

But that is what they go for, correct? And if so, why do they ever have .5 point spreads? They would theoretically never win those?

 

[IrishLax]

I would be very curious to know who is actually playing calls. I don't get the feeling it's BK. As with any coach calling plays there are times I scratch my head, but I don't think the offense has the same 'BK feel' that it has had in the past.

Sanford has been calling plays all year. I actually thought I posted something to that effect awhile ago in this very thread.

 

[ACamp1900]

There's usually a commission, so it's not a 1:1 payout even if action is 50/50 on both sides.

yeah the goal is to typically make their money on the 'commission' while the actual wins and loses mostly cancel each other out...

 

[yankeeND]

Sanford has been calling plays all year. I actually thought I posted something to that effect awhile ago in this very thread.

And it shows!

 

[tussin]

Sanford has been calling plays all year. I actually thought I posted something to that effect awhile ago in this very thread.

I don't doubt that to be true, but how do you know this? Even the ISD guys haven't publicly indicated one way or another.

 

[IrishLax]

This is correct. Lines are not set on what they think the final score will be. The lines are set with a goal of 50/50 on each side. They get to much action on one team, the line moves.

No, this isn't true anymore. It used to be how things are done. Casinos found that they weren't making enough money trying to predict public opinion and set 50/50 lines (and were also opening themselves up to greater risk on the line movement).

Casinos now basically do a bit of "betting on themselves" and have certain risk thresholds they try to manage. Some weekends, they'll tons of money... on others, they will take a bath. They don't try to just live off the 10% vig anymore.

 

[tussin]

That's pretty much a myth based on the antiquated way that lines used to be set. Books used to try to have all of their lines set such that even money was bet across the board and the casino would make their money on the "vig." These days, lines are basically set towards whatever the oddsmaker considers a "probable outcome"... it's not very uncommon to see 70% or 80% of public money on one side of a bet these days.

The evolution in how lines are set has been gradual and it's pretty complex. Casinos still adjust lines based on where the money is coming in if its exceeding their acceptable threshold for a particular game, and there still is an element of "perception" involved. But no, casinos do not set their lines in a direct attempt to achieve a 50/50 split, and sources that say they do are either 1) out of date 2) uninformed about the process.

This is correct. Lines are not set on what they think the final score will be. The lines are set with a goal of 50/50 on each side. They get to much action on one team, the line moves.

I love that these two posts were back to back.

Lax, you seem to be pretty well informed on this. Thanks for the explanation.

 

[IrishLax]

I don't doubt that to be true, but how do you know this? Even the ISD guys haven't publicly indicated one way or another.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Sanford has been calling plays all year. I actually thought I posted something to that effect awhile ago in this very thread.

That's odd another posted cited a player as a source that Kelly has last say on the play calls and control.

 

[IrishLax]

That's odd another posted cited a player as a source that Kelly has last say on the play calls and control.

Sanford is the play caller. He radios them down to Kelly, I'm sure Kelly retains veto power. All head coaches do.

I'd be interested to know how often he says "nah, we're running XYZ instead" or otherwise pushes back. Also, play calling is often a bit of a two-way street... I don't think anyone knows how often Sanford says he wants Play X and Kelly just straight calls it in.

 

[wizards8507]

It is irrational to insist that we credit your "eye ball" test over objective measures of SoS that indicate we've played one of the toughest slates in the country thus far.

I never said you should, not even close. It is simply my opinion that strength of victory is more important than overall strength of schedule because strength of schedule gives you credit for playing tough teams, even if you lose to them. Do you think it's better to beat Texas and lose to Baylor, or to beat Alabama and lose to Kansas? Strength of schedule would say that the former is better. I believe that the latter is better. I'll take an elite win and a bad loss over a mediocre win and an "acceptable" loss. We're doing the same thing we did after Florida State last year; acting like our "best win" is a loss to Clemson. CLEMSON is the reason our SoS is so high, not any of the teams we've beaten.

For f*ck's sake, as an alumnus you should be enjoying Team 127 immensely...

I am!

...instead of speculating about who might do a better job than Kelly.

I'm not! Unless we could get Saban, Dantonio, or Harbaugh, I'll let it ride with Kelly. And we can't, so here we are. That doesn't mean it's an invalid topic of discussion on this Notre Dame football discussion board.

 

[NDohio]

Sanford has been calling plays all year. I actually thought I posted something to that effect awhile ago in this very thread.

I thought so. And in one of the Showtime clips I thought I heard someone in the booth tell Sanford "nice play call" after a Fuller TD.

The whole feel of the offense is different this year.

 

[koonja]

SOMEONE ANSWER MY BETTING QU. What is this commissions thing? Commissions aside, does the casino only make money when it lands exactly on the spread? So a -11 spread, casino would only win in some score that makes ND beat USC by 11?

And if so, why would they ever have like a 10.5 or 11.5 spread?

 

[Irish Insanity]

Sanford is the play caller. He radios them down to Kelly, I'm sure Kelly retains veto power. All head coaches do.

I'd be interested to know how often he says "nah, we're running XYZ instead."

Ah. True.

 

[gkIrish]

Do you not understand how ATS works? I'm asking seriously, not rhetorically. You sound like a crazy old man standing on his porch right now raving about the Government coming to take his guns or something... that is how little sense you are making.

MSU's 1-6 ATS record is absolutely indicative of them looking like crap this year. They've looked really bad against really bad teams, and lucked out against Michigan (the only time they covered the spread).

So per what you just posted, there are no Power 5 teams with an equivalent ATS to Notre Dame. Thanks for affirming the point.

Ok I think arguments from this thread and maybe others got melted together in my mind at some point. I thought you were arguing that our 6-1 record ATS shows how great our team has been. If that's not your argument than we can ignore everything I said.

But I know that your argument is that Notre Dame has exceed Vegas's expectations for o/u win total so basically everything I've said does still apply. You are using Vegas measurements to determine whether or not we've performed at a historic level. That's bogus. In your article you write:

Few appreciate the job Brian Kelly is doing, and even fewer realize how much worse this team should be performing given the circumstances. What we’re witnessing is nothing short of a historically great coaching job

What are you talking about here? Considering the opponents, which teams did you think we should have lost to outside of Clemson. Your argument is that we should be performing worse than we actually have. That is my issue with your argument. It's absolutely disingenuous to argue that you would expect a 5-2 record at this juncture against this schedule. As I said earlier, 6-1 is absolutely in the range of acceptable records. This is Notre Dame. We aren't Indiana University. We should never expect to lose to Navy or UMass or Virginia.

 

[kmoose]

I'd rather see an offense consistently get five to ten yards.

Look up............ your chances of seeing God are better. Who calls those 70 yard bombs, and since they aren't called on a regular basis, then someone must be calling them at just the right time to be successful? I'm not arguing that Kelly's play calling is perfect; it's not. But it sure as fvck isn't "utterly horrible"........... no matter what parallel universe someone might reside in.

 

[wizards8507]

So a -11 spread, casino would only win in some score that makes ND beat USC by 11?

That would be a tie and nobody wins. Notre Dame 28, USC 17 means that ND -11 is 17-17.

And if so, why would they ever have like a 10.5 or 11.5 spread?

It eliminates the push.

 

[kmoose]

What are you talking about here? Considering the opponents, which teams did you think we should have lost to outside of Clemson. Your argument is that we should be performing worse than we actually have. That is my issue with your argument. It's absolutely disingenuous to argue that you would expect a 5-2 record at this juncture against this schedule. As I said earlier, 6-1 is absolutely in the range of acceptable records. This is Notre Dame. We aren't Indiana University. We should never expect to lose to Navy or UMass or Virginia.

It doesn't, or at least shouldn't, take a rocket scientist to guess that he is considering the injuries that have bitten ND this season.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

But that is what they go for, correct? And if so, why do they ever have .5 point spreads? They would theoretically never win those?

Koon to better explain how the 50/50 line setting was intended to work...Vegas would set a line in an an attempt to get 50/50 action on each side. Their intent was not that the game would fall exactly on the spread though and they would win both sides...in that case the bet would be a push.

Betting lines would require a "vig", "commission" or "juice", normally at -110 or some instances -120.
At -110, if you bet $100 and you won, you would win $100. If you lost, you would lose $110.
At -120, if you lost you would lose $120.

The idea being that the winners and losers would cancel each other out and the casino would make their money on that extra 10 or 20% the losing bets paid.

 

[koonja]

That would be a tie and nobody wins. Notre Dame 28, USC 17 means that ND -11 is 17-17.


It eliminates the push.

So the casino doesn't even win if it lands directly on -11?

And so the .5 is to declare a winner of one of the 50/50 sides?

 

[wizards8507]

By the way, it's awesome to be told how wrong I am by the same people who told me we'd be throttled by Georgia Tech when I said they weren't that good; the same people who ripped me for criticizing Golson's pocket presence and mental capacity for the position after the Rice game; the same people who thought we'd be doomed without Malik and Folston when I argued that their backups would be competent replacements.

I'd say it gets old, but it does not.

 

[Rocket89]

Same place I've been since 2012. Stop running jet sweeps on the opponent's four yard line. Run the ball when you're up 10 in the 4th quarter. Don't throw bubble screens to Corey Robinson or fades to Chris Brown. Use your tight ends.

I think Brian Kelly is a great (elite?) program manager, including recruiting and talent development. If this were the NFL, he'd be an outstanding GM. My questions with him are on his gameday skills. Playcalling, the playbook in general, and motivation (especially opening drives / quarters).

This is part or maybe the whole of your problem. I mentioned it way back in this thread--anyone whose main gripe is playcalling, when the offense isn't terrible, almost by definition cannot be a rational fan. That's because you'll have these gripes with any coach or with anyone who calls plays. It's not about Kelly or Sanford. It's about you.

This isn't to say there aren't real issues sometimes but I'm just pointing out using playcalling as a crutch for criticisms, or worse the main issue for criticisms, typically isn't a smart way to judge a team or coaching staff.

That's why you immediately have to belittle the offensive achievements this year. There's always going to be something you don't like about the offense, therefore you have to counter anything that shines a light on all the good things.

Whiskey is right about your irrationality and why it so closely resembles NDN. You've set things up so that you will almost certainly never be happy and always have something to complain about--in this instance I'm talking about playcalling.

 

[koonja]

By the way, it's awesome to be told how wrong I am by the same people who told me we'd be throttled by Georgia Tech when I said they weren't that good; the same people who ripped me for criticizing Golson's pocket presence and mental capacity for the position after the Rice game; the same people who thought we'd be doomed without Malik and Folston when I argued that their backups would be competent replacements.

I'd say it gets old, but it does not.

I do have to say he told me so on a couple of these. Touche.

 

[kmoose]

SOMEONE ANSWER MY BETTING QU. What is this commissions thing? Commissions aside, does the casino only make money when it lands exactly on the spread? So a -11 spread, casino would only win in some score that makes ND beat USC by 11?

And if so, why would they ever have like a 10.5 or 11.5 spread?

The casino makes money when they pay out less money on the winner than was bet on the loser. That sounds simple, but the odds affect how much is paid out so that's really the only "set standard" I can think of.

 

[Corry]

SOMEONE ANSWER MY BETTING QU. What is this commissions thing? Commissions aside, does the casino only make money when it lands exactly on the spread? So a -11 spread, casino would only win in some score that makes ND beat USC by 11?

And if so, why would they ever have like a 10.5 or 11.5 spread?

You're looking at it wrong. It's not like a casino is a place for friends to place bets. If you make a bet in a casino you're betting against the house. So if you lose they win. If you win, they lose, minus a commission. The point spread is just a prediction, and way to even the playing field.

 

[wizards8507]

Whiskey is right about your irrationality and why it so closely resembles NDN. You've set things up so that you will almost certainly never be happy and always have something to complain about--in this instance I'm talking about playcalling.

Except I am happy. General happiness is not the same as "everything is perfect." Can't I be generally happy while discussing those things that I think could be better?

This board be like...

 

[koonja]

I thank you guys for answering - but I need to go back to class because I still don't understand how the money gets moved on betting. And I'm still unsure what happens when it's -11 and the score lands right on that. I assumed that's when the casino wins BOTH over/under side's money, but apparently it's a tie for all (casino included).

But I'll start a new thread about betting. Don't want to derail this one.

Now, as we were, FIRE LONGO!