2015 Bye Week Reassessment

[Booslum31]

I think I'm staying with my pre-season prediction...11-1 and missing the play-off because of no conference championship. Hope I'm right on the record but wrong on the playoff.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Look, if you guys want to argue against math and statistics then I'm out. This is one of the dumbest discussions I've ever had on this board. Your waving your hands at the schedule and it being "not hard" and all other kinds of bullsh*t.

If you're not willing to accept F/+, SOS ratings, expected win probabilities, etc. then it is completely pointless to continue this discussion.

... but I am sure that ND is overrated, and Brian Kelly is a terrible coach.

 

[wizards8507]

I think I'm staying with my pre-season prediction...11-1 and missing the play-off because of no conference championship. Hope I'm right on the record but wrong on the playoff.

We need two of the three to happen. Not out of the realm of possibility:

1. Stanford wins the Pac.
2. Pitt wins the ACC.
3. The Big 12 eats itself alive.
4. Iowa loses two and wins the B1G.

 

[pumpdog20]

2-4 (all losses to currently ranked teams, combined losses of teams they lost to, 2, with those two losses being to top 6 teams)
2-4 (only 1 loss to non ranked team, 6, UCLA has lost to a decent ASU and Stanford, Boise St meh, and Pitt's only loss is to undefeated Iowa)
2-5 (only loss to a non ranked team is North Carolina, combined losses of those teams, 4)
1-5 (yeah, hot garbage)
6-0
4-1 (hard to tell, but in the non ND games, they've handled pretty easy)
3-3 (combined losses is 5, with 3 coming from Washington. Other than that they've lost to two top 10/11 teams.


You're combined W/L comparision is misleading by a lot. Of those combined 22 losses, there's maybe two or three bad ones in there.

Also, 18 of the 22 losses are to teams in the top 25 or getting votes.

 

[tussin]

We need two of the three to happen. Not out of the realm of possibility:

1. Stanford wins the Pac.
2. Pitt wins the ACC.
3. The Big 12 eats itself alive.
4. Iowa loses two and wins the B1G.

Assuming we are 11-1, I think we are getting in over an 11-1 Iowa B1G Champ.

 

[ACamp1900]

Ole Miss winning the SEC Championship (almost impossible but hey) would really help us too...

 

[RDU Irish]

For the record, Ole Miss sucks. And losing their best player while moonlighting as a running back is pretty epic. As is Georgia losing Chubb to injury. Just pointing it out for those that like to claim we are the only team who deals with the injury bug. Both of those teams will put those injuries to ONE player as enough to excuse the rest of the season.


Clemson than Bama, LSU, Florida, Michigan St., Michigan, Ole Miss, or Utah

None of those teams mentioned scare me. I would take any of them on in a playoff and feel like we have a 1/3rd to 2/3rd chance at beating them. That is very unlike 2012 against Bama where we thought there was a 1/3rd chance of keeping it within two scores. None of these teams are nearly as dominant as that team. (and frankly Ole Miss does not belong anywhere near that list)

 

[RDU Irish]

Which of those teams have a QB/WR tandem that really puts fear in you? I am less worried about stopping a run game than I am someone like Kessler chucking pin point shots all over the field to elite athletes. Cook is the closest thing but his WRs are not nearly as good as USCs. SEC QBs are generally pathetic, do we really think those hacks can beat us in the air? SEC defense has been an oxymoron for quite a while too.

 

[GoIrish41]

We need two of the three to happen. Not out of the realm of possibility:

1. Stanford wins the Pac.
2. Pitt wins the ACC.
3. The Big 12 eats itself alive.
4. Iowa loses two and wins the B1G.

There are four things there. Lax may be right about the math thing. We just need to keep winning and everything will sort itself out.

 

[wizards8507]

Assuming we are 11-1, I think we are getting in over an 11-1 Iowa B1G Champ.

Iowa would be 13-0 or 12-1.

 

[ulukinatme]

Iowa's schedule is a complete joke, the entire B1G West is basically a joke other than Wisconsin and they've already picked up 2 losses (One of which was 'Bama though, and the other Iowa). Conference schedule aside, the toughest team Iowa has faced is Pitt and the rest are bottom feeders. I'd say the Playoff committee is fucked if Iowa somehow won the B1G with one loss and they got in over us...cause if that happened the only decent win Iowa would have on their schedule outside of Wisconsin would be MSU/tOSU in the CCG. Obviously at 13-0 they would be guaranteed a spot, but no way they should get in with their schedule at 12-1.

 

[Cackalacky]

F+ is about as useless as FPI, which currently has USC at number 6.


Florida has played the 12th toughest schedule per Sagarin.

Regardless, our SOS is skewed high because we don't play many (any?) teams that are truly terrible. Georgia Tech and Virginia have an average Sagarin ranking of 61. Eastern Kentucky and LSU have an average Sagarin ranking of 65. So in a hypothetical two-game season, the team that plays Georgia Tech and Virginia has a stronger SOS than the team that plays Eastern Kentucky and LSU. But let me ask you, which team is more likely to lose a game? Which set of games is tougher to get through undefeated? It would be much better for Notre Dame to have a marquee win or two and then some "filler" wins against crap competition than to consistently beat mediocre teams.


We absolutely build a strong schedule. It's just that, this year, that schedule has failed to perform as we thought it would.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

F+ is about as useless as FPI, which currently has USC at number 6.

 

[wizards8507]

You guys want to go back to the BCS computers? Because that's essentially what F+ is. Statistical models are meaningless in a 12-game season.

 

[Cackalacky]

You guys want to go back to the BCS computers? Because that's essentially what F+ is. Statistical models are meaningless in a 12-game season.

 

[wizards8507]

 

[Cackalacky]

Calatiste!!!!

 

[SoDakDomer]

We absolutely build a strong schedule. It's just that, this year, that schedule has failed to perform as we thought it would.

This is the instance that hurts us in not playing in a conference. If you play in a conference you will always end up having played rated teams. Whether they are artificially inflated rankings because of the conference standings is truly hard to decipher because very few out of conference games between other power conferences happen each year. You don't truly get a feel for which conferences were overrated until after bowl season.

 

[Luckylucci]

-I'm very very happy with the result, being 6-1 and a chance for a playoff run is great and at the very least a big time bowl game at 10-2 is very achievable.

-I haven't been entirely pleased with the way the team has played and gives me some pause that we can win out. All the injuries we've overcome to be at 6-1 is remarkable. However, knowing that 7-0 was achievable with this same group is slightly frustrating.

-Kizer has exceeded expectations and seems to be getting better, that bodes well for an end of the year run.

-CJ has exceeded expectations and then some.

-Happy for Crob to bounce back the way he did.

- Kudos to Chris Brown for stepping up at the #2 guy without a real TE threat and some others struggling early.

- Even though he turned the ball over on Saturday I'd like to see Hunter Jr. become more of the gameplan as we'll have 2 weeks to look at where and how.

-CJ Sanders on returns has really taken those groups to a different level. He'll be fun to watch on O in the future.

-The defense is still too sporadic for my liking. I want a defense to be consistent and we are far from that right now. The end results have been there but like Coach Kelly said we need to be able to play 4 qtrs. of good defense. Hasn't happened since Texas. I still think there is too much scheming going on, which looks a little like guessing.

-I'm fairly disappointed that we can't get some development from any other MLB. I know its beating a dead horse but there's a reason for it. Interested to see Murtaugh's breakdown of Schmidt's play.

-Bye week comes at a good time as we can rest some guys who have been playing a lot of snaps. Also, hopefully Q. Nelson will be back to 100% by the time we take on Temple.

 

[phillyirish]

Our schedule is severely underrated, and I feel the second half is the tougher part. Pitt, Temple, and BC are all top 10 in defensive yards.

 

[stlnd01]

It's hard to be unhappy with 6-1 and a very close 1. Especially given injuries, etc.
Will be thrilled if we hold serve and go into Stanford 10-1. Then win and let the playoff cards fall where they may.
But would certainly help our case if Stanford wins the Pac 12, Temple and/or Pitt finishes ranked and Texas and USC finish better than they started. All are quite possible.

 

[Guest]

This isn't a 162-game Major League Baseball season. 12 games. Not statistically sufficient.

Sure it is, because all teams play roughly the same amount of games per year. So for comparison purposes among the population of teams, it is perfectly relevant.

 

[ickythump1225]

Our schedule is good enough to not be the reason we don't make the playoffs. If we had beat Clemson we would have nothing to worry about. In the end I think 11-1 ND with a win over Stanford and Clemson but a loss to USC has a far better shot to get into the playoffs over 11-1 ND with a "good" loss to USC.

If I recall correctly from last year the committee doesn't penalize too hard for "bad" losses, they care more about good wins. We didn't get any credit for almost beating FSU, and conversely OSU got forgiven for their bad loss. The BCS system was far more forgiving for "good" losses.

Clemson is going to shake out to have the perfect schedule. 10 games that range from easy to only moderately difficult and two big time primetime games that give them a chances to nab big wins. If they go 12-1, winning the ACC and have wins over ND and FSU no one is going to deny them the playoffs even if they drop a game to Miami or some other meddling team.

 

[NDohio]

Before assessing where the team is at the bye, go back and read the Virginia game day thread after Malik was injured.

This is the first ND team in a while that are flat out fun to watch play. Yeah they give me heart failure from time to time, but I love this team.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

BK said it in his post game presser. 2 games on the road, UVA and Clemson. Barely squeaked by UVA and lost at Clemson. ND needs to learn to get the strong W on the road (Temple, Pitt, BC) and soundly defeat the inferior teams. I'm a believer. Palo Alto at 10-1. Hopefully against another playoff team.

Another thought. I'm sure BK will allow the team to rest and get some much needed recovery but at the same time, use this break to bring the younger guys like Morgan and Kizer (more) up to speed. I can see Morgan playing more in the second half of the season and Kizer making a small leap forward after this bye week.

Kelly said the whole team was gone Monday, until Friday or Saturday, I believe. (I love that they are not off on the actual bye weekend, that would be a prescription for stupidity.)

I think what this team needs is time off. The schedule, the early start to camp, or the late first game, however you want to look at it, the kind of teams we played, two triple options, followed by our two arguably toughest opponents, and the myriad of injuries, all have contributed to the erratic play and tackling wiffs. I think with some rest and sunshine under their belts the gang will come back with more energy and renewed attitudes. And that will make a significant improvement by itself!

 

[OCIrish]

Great thread, Cack.

If you told me before the season started that we would go through Texas, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and USC with one loss, be ranked in the top 10, and cover the spread in six out of seven games, I would've begrudgingly taken it... if you also told me our only loss would be to Clemson on the road by the slimmest of margins, and that would we destroy Texas and Georgia Tech and handle USC by double digits, I would've for sure taken it.

But if you told me we'd lose Zaire, Folston, Jones, Smythe, etc. and we'd do that... I don't think anyone on this board would've turned it down. It is truly remarkable how well this team has played given the hand that they were dealt... with the exception of the trip to UVA, ND has outperformed expectations in every. single. game. ND was pegged as a 9 win team by Vegas BEFORE injuries, so anything at 10+ wins should be considered unmitigated success.

When you consider we spent the entire fall tailoring an offense to Malik Zaire+Folston and lost both of them... and somehow we have the #5 offense in the country with a RS frosh QB who got no reps and might not even know the meaning of the word "progressions" and a converted WR that had never played RB before in his life being asked to carry the ball 20+ times a game, it's truly absurd.

Lax, best post I've seen in some time!!! Reps my friend, and I couldn't agree more with your thoughts!!!

 

[RDU Irish]

Excellent scheduling to put the bye week on the tail end of Fall Break on campus. I always hated home games during Fall Break, cut into attendance of students. Keeping the team on campus after mid terms for what is normally a big match up (Stanford or USC) was good in that they could focus 100% but bad because it was so far out of the routine and gave them no down time. If fall break is so great for regular students, I would think football players need it worse.

 

[Irish Insanity]

In the SI mid-season bowl projections we are playing Memphis in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

[ulukinatme]

In the SI mid-season bowl projections we are playing Memphis in the Fiesta Bowl.

How is that going to work since we're going to the playoff?

In all seriousness, I hope Memphis loses a game. That's not exactly a sexy matchup, even if we execute well and crush them.

 

[ickythump1225]

How is that going to work since we're going to the playoff?

In all seriousness, I hope Memphis loses a game. That's not exactly a sexy matchup, even if we execute well and crush them.

Don't care about that shit anymore. I wanted Alabama in the 2012 NCG too, because it was "sexy" and I wanted to play the best. Looking back I wish like hell KSU had gone 12-0. We'd have been National Champions that year.