Kelly NFL Rumors

[woolybug25]

Actually its not 2 TD's and 2 2point conversions is 16. that 1 point make a difference at 17.

I see what you did there...

 

[irishff1014]

I see what you did there...

After i read that again it sounded like i was calling you out but i truly wasn't Wooly. Just pointing out how much of a difference it was from 16 to 17.

 

[woolybug25]

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Alabama Crimson Tide - Recap - October 18, 2014 - ESPN
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears - Recap - November 01, 2014 - ESPN
Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners - Recap - November 08, 2014 - ESPN
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Florida State Seminoles - Recap - October 04, 2014 - ESPN

Those are blowouts.

To each their own, but if 5 possession wins are the only thing you see as blowouts, then you aren't going to see many or be very happy with any wins moving forward.

I think its fair to say that a game that one team is in control to the point of the game being unreachable for their opponent could be considered a blowout. That is different for every team. It all depends on the brand of football they play.

 

[NDohio]

I love how BK was lucky to get ND to the NC game but good ole Gus is an elite coach because he took Auburn to the NC game.

Last year's Auburn team was way luckier than 2012 ND.

 

[woolybug25]

After i read that again it sounded like i was calling you out but i truly wasn't Wooly. Just pointing out how much of a difference it was from 16 to 17.

Haha.... I thought you were referring to BK's press conference. lol


My original comment was referring to the fact that a 16 point victory is typically a three possession game. I see what you mean about the 2pt conversion, but you know what I mean.

 

[wizards8507]

I think its fair to say that a game that one team is in control to the point of the game being unreachable for their opponent could be considered a blowout.

Do you remember watching any games this season that felt like we were "in control" like with should have been outside of Rice and Michigan?

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

I think I know which play you're referring to, but for reference do you have a link to a vid?

Couldn't find a video but here is a link to an article referencing it. towards the bottom.


http://irish.nbcsports.com/2014/11/10/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-notre-dame-vs-arizona-state/

 

[Whiskeyjack]

And what luck would that be? The turnover machine known as Everett Golson being suspended last year or the frozen 5 this year?

You can add Sullivan, Seeberg, Tuiasosopo to that list as well. I'd bet Golson at QB gets us 1-2 more wins last year, and the Frozen Five probably another 1-2 this year. Kelly's peers don't have to deal with that kind of stuff at other schools.

Did you read my post? I was referencing starting players and the major contributors on that roster were Weis recruits. Not the 2-deep.

(1) Almost everyone on that two-deep played quite a bit in 2012; and (2) you forgot Farley, Russell and Jones.

I really don't care about him stacking on wins or "games coached" at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan, and I doubt most outside yourself do. He is 44-18 at Notre Dame (.71%) which is his first major program. That is what's at issue here...nothing more.

How about his 34-6 record at Cinci? His earlier stops matter, because they prove that he's a program builder. Earlier coaching stops for Stoops, Saban and Meyer are legitimately included in their winning %s.

Why is it so hard to fathom this program doing better yearly then 8-5 for you? That is what we are getting right now from "elite" coach Brian Kelly. Not sure why you are so quick to dismiss the possibility of someone else improving on that mark.

It's not hard to fathom. Kelly has done it twice already, and he's likely to do it again this year. I think he's elite because I remember what our program was like for the 14 years before he arrived, and because the objective data says he's elite. I don't dismiss the possibility that someone else could do better, but when I look around the CFB coaching landscape, I don't see any plausible options.

Holy s**t! It's not his floor.....it's his average!!! Nice to see though you already have a built in excuse for any forseeable poor seasons from Kelly. That is called "beyond reproach" in case you were unfamiliar with the term.

Do you understand the concept of a "floor"? Kelly has literally never won fewer than 8 games in a season, and unless he loses out this year (including the bowl game), that will hold heading into 2015. His "average" over 13 annual games is ~9.5 wins/ season.

How do you ironclad know those guys are not interested? Your [sic] guessing. Some say Stoops was close last time. Who's to say Jon Gruden wouldn't be interested with his fathers ties to the program? How about Gary Patterson again? There are good candidates out there and nobody really knows what their true interest level is. Doesn't mean you don't take a swing at all of them if Kelly isn't the guy to get this program over the hump. Or would you rather they just keep going 8-5 or 9-4 under Kelly?

Have you visited NDNation before? You'd fit right in over there. They've been having this same discussion for almost two decades now.

I do hope Swarbrick has a succession plan in place for when Kelly leaves, but he's a helluva lot smarter than you, and I'd bet large sums he's not currently looking to replace Kelly.

I know you are a huge Kelly apologist who tries to rationalize things any time this team falls on it's face, but we are likely headed for yet another 8-5 season and a trip to the Bumf**k Bowl under "elite" coach Kelly.

As I mentioned earlier, I remember the last three coaching regimes, and I prefer to base my arguments on objective statistical data rather than emotional outbursts.

With this in mind, some of us don't like the direction of the program and for you to chalk that up to "juvenile entitled whining" reeks of just blind homerism.

No one liked the outcome of the NW game. Kelly bears a lot of responsibility for that, which he's already owned up to. But if you want to b!tch about the "direction of the program" instead of the last few games, you don't have a leg to stand on.

 

[woolybug25]

Do you remember watching any games this season that felt like we were "in control" like with should have been outside of Rice and Michigan?

Syracuse. We were up 21-3 going into the 4th qtr. I knew we won before the final quarter started. Despite our play being complete trash in the 4th quarter and getting outscored, we still won the game by 16. That's what a blowout is, getting ahead by enough that even a dramatic turn of events cannot change the outcome. That's what happened in that game, regardless of how good it looked.

 

[IrishLion]

Do you remember watching any games this season that felt like we were "in control" like with should have been outside of Rice and Michigan?

I didn't even feel like ND was in control of the scUM game, but that's probably because I'm a shell-shocked ND fan, and thus I'm always waiting for the ceiling to collapse in some freak happening.

My friend asked me why I was still biting my finger nails when ND was up 28-0 at the end of the third. He didn't understand why I was still nervous that the game might turn.

 

[Cali_domer]

I didn't even feel like ND was in control of the scUM game, but that's probably because I'm a shell-shocked ND fan, and thus I'm always waiting for the ceiling to collapse in some freak happening.

My friend asked me why I was still biting my finger nails when ND was up 28-0 at the end of the third. He didn't understand why I was still nervous that the game might turn.

Nightmares of Denard Robinson throwing a lame duck pass?

 

[Ndaccountant]

Let's look at this a bit further

71% is "good, not great"? Did you even click on that link I provided in my last post. There are only 11 active coaches out of 128 in I-A that have a win percentage of 71% with over 100 games coached. Thank you for proving my point about unrealistic expectations.

No one is suggesting that Kelly is beyond reproach. But if you're going to suggest that Kelly isn't an elite coach, or that we'd be better off without him, prepare to be mocked.

Here are coaches with less than 100 games with a % higher than 71 (bolded are ones that I would consider peers of Kelly):
Mark Helfrich
Jimbo Fisher
Chuck Martin (ha)
Rod Carey
Guz Malzahn
David Shaw
Jim Mora
Hugh Freeze
Bo Pelini
Bobby Wilder
Dino Babers

Guys a not at 71% but I would consider peers with BK based on where their program is today:
Mark Dantonio
Todd Graham
Art Briles
Bill Snyder

So, by my count, there are approximately 14 coaches that I would put at the approximate level of BK or above - the eight men above along with Stoops, the OBC, Richt, Patterson, Saban, Meyer. Considering there are 66 power teams counting ND, that means roughly 20% of power 5 coaches are on the same level as BK. While that is clearly above average, I am not sure that equates elite.

8-5 is an awesome floor. Not great as a ceiling, but it's clearly not Kelly's ceiling, and no one here has said they'd be happy if it was either.

While 8-5 isn't a terrible floor, it doesn't seem like Kelly is spending much time at his ceiling. By definition, you should only reach your ceiling once in a 5 year time period, but he is spending a disproportionate time at his floor, which should also be more of a once every 5 year cycle too. He really hasn't had much between.

So all we're left with is juvenile entitled whining completely divorced from the reality of NDFB today

I don't think it is unrealistic to expect ND to finish inside the top 20 more than 1 year out of 5, assuming something extraordinary doesn't happen against Lville and USC.

 

[IrishLion]

Nightmares of Denard Robinson throwing a lame duck pass?

Nightmares of defensive backs inexplicably forgetting how to defend even semi-competently on a 50/50 ball.

 

[kmoose]

And he's had some sh!t luck over the last two years. It's almost as if he has very little room for error with the roster management issues that are inherent at ND, which prevents us from overcoming misfortune like other programs can.

And what luck would that be? The turnover machine known as Everett Golson being suspended last year or the frozen 5 this year? Roster restrictions and all, we are still fielding better talent on Saturdays then most of the college football universe, and while it sucks, are the roster management issues always going to be the "get out of jail free" card for Kelly? Apparently for some it will be.

Take a look a the 2-deep. At least half of those guys were Kelly recruits.

Did you read my post? I was referencing starting players and the major contributors on that roster were Weis recruits. Not the 2-deep.

71% is "good, not great"? Did you even click on that link I provided in my last post. There are only 11 active coaches out of 128 in I-A that have a win percentage of 71% with over 100 games coached. Thank you for proving my point about unrealistic expectations.

I really don't care about him stacking on wins or "games coached" at Grand Valley State and Central Michigan, and I doubt most outside yourself do. He is 44-18 at Notre Dame (.71%) which is his first major program. That is what's at issue here...nothing more.


No one is suggesting that Kelly is beyond reproach. But if you're going to suggest that Kelly isn't an elite coach, or that we'd be better off without him, prepare to be mocked.

Why is it so hard to fathom this program doing better yearly then 8-5 for you? That is what we are getting right now from "elite" coach Brian Kelly. Not sure why you are so quick to dismiss the possibility of someone else improving on that mark.

Did you sleep through the previous three coaching regimes?

LOL

Strawman. No one here would be happy going 8-5 for the foreseeable future. That's Kelly's floor, and his ceiling is obviously much higher than that, since he brought us to the title game in 2012. Is it high enough that we should expect to make it back there again before he leaves? I don't know. Maybe not, and if we don't, I think it'll more likely be attributable to institutional restrictions than any short-coming with Kelly himself.

Holy s**t! It's not his floor.....it's his average!!! Nice to see though you already have a built in excuse for any forseeable poor seasons from Kelly. That is called "beyond reproach" in case you were unfamiliar with the term.

The NW loss sucked, and it's perfectly natural to want to vent. But the objective data indicates that Kelly is an elite coach, and we're damn lucky to have him. If you think he's taken ND as far as he's capable of, then tell me which coach Swarbrick can go hire today who: (1) would come to ND; and (2) would definitely do a better job than Kelly. You can't, because that guy ain't out there. Stoops, Saban and Meyer are the only coaches out there who have a more impressive body of work, and none of them would voluntarily hamstring themselves by laboring under ND's academic and roster management restrictions.

How do you ironclad know those guys are not interested? Your guessing. Some say Stoops was close last time. Who's to say Jon Gruden wouldn't be interested with his fathers ties to the program? How about Gary Patterson again? There are good candidates out there and nobody really knows what their true interest level is. Doesn't mean you don't take a swing at all of them if Kelly isn't the guy to get this program over the hump. Or would you rather they just keep going 8-5 or 9-4 under Kelly?

 

[IrishLion]

Did you read my post? I was referencing starting players and the major contributors on that roster were Weis recruits. Not the 2-deep.

Posted this a bit ago, but to reference your argument on key contributors in 2012:

Golson - Kelly
Rees - Weis
Wood - Weis
Riddick - Weis
Atkinson - Kelly
Jones - Weis
Daniels - Kelly
Toma - Weis
Eifert - Weis
Niklas - Kelly
Entire OL - Weis
Kap - Weis
Tuitt - Kelly
Nix - Himself
Day - Kelly
Teo - Weis
Fox - Weis
Spond - Kelly
Shembo - Weis
Russell - Kelly
Jackson - Weis
Farley - Kelly
Motta - Weis


Of the key contributors that had big impacts on that run, 9 were recruited by Kelly, 13 by Weis. Not a bad split when some try to portray that run as being keyed only by guys recruited by Weis.

(Also, this debate is dumb in the first place. Of course Kelly had success with Weis's recruits; that's the point. You bring in a coach that knows how to develop players.)

 

[NDRock]

Of the key contributors that had big impacts on that run, 9 were recruited by Kelly, 13 by Weis. Not a bad split when some try to portray that run as being keyed only by guys recruited by Weis.

To be fair, one of your 13 is the entire offensive line. That being said, Weis was awful. I hope Kelly stays, just wish he would address some issues (run game, special teams). Can't imagine who we could get that would better.

 

[IrishLion]

To be fair, one of your 13 is the entire offensive line. That being said, Weis was awful. I hope Kelly stays, just wish he would address some issues (run game, special teams). Can't imagine who we could get that would better.

Welp, that certainly changes the ratio... but taking some other dude's players to a national championship in just three seasons, while 1/3 of the key contributors are your own recruits, even though you've only had two full recruiting classes in the books, is pretty damn good in my eyes.

But what do I know? Kelly had a rough game and now he's a bum who could only win with Weis's players.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

So, by my count, there are approximately 14 coaches that I would put at the approximate level of BK or above - the eight men above along with Stoops, the OBC, Richt, Patterson, Saban, Meyer.

And why do you think all 22 of those coaches are as good or better than BK? Very few of them have a comparable body of work. Helfrich, for instance, could very easily turn out like Shaw--the successor to an outstanding coach who will ride the program's momentum for a bit before falling back to his individual level of competence. And who among them could outperform Kelly given ND's unique challenges and would come if Swarbrick offered?

While 8-5 isn't a terrible floor, it doesn't seem like Kelly is spending much time at his ceiling. By definition, you should only reach your ceiling once in a 5 year time period, but he is spending a disproportionate time at his floor, which should also be more of a once every 5 year cycle too. He really hasn't had much between.

I don't think it is unrealistic to expect ND to finish inside the top 20 more than 1 year out of 5, assuming something extraordinary doesn't happen against Lville and USC.

First, reps for advancing your argument without being a condescending douche bag. Second, I get that it's "Year 5", but the program was at its nadir when Kelly took over. Was a top-20 finish a reasonable expectation in 2010 or 2011? Probably not considering where we were coming from.

Then we had the magical 2012 season, followed by 2013 and 2014, which were both massively impacted by suspensions over which Kelly had no control. I honestly believe that if we'd had Golson in 2013 and the Frozen Five this year, Kelly would be sitting on an extra 2-4 wins, and we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.

 

[stlnd01]

Speaking of recruits, OFD has a pretty good piece today pointing out that our defense (which is the real problem right now) will have just four guys from the entire 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes who are likely to play meaningful minutes on Saturday - Jones, Farley, Okwara and Shumate. That's kind of astounding.

Notre Dame's defensive struggles can be traced back to poor defensive recruiting - One Foot Down

Lotsa reasons for that - some Kelly's fault, some not - but this situation 'a been a long time coming.

 

[wizards8507]

Welp, that certainly changes the ratio... but taking some other dude's players to a national championship in just three seasons, while 1/3 of the key contributors are your own recruits, even though you've only had two full recruiting classes in the books, is pretty damn good in my eyes.

It's pretty damn good in the context of the 2012 season, I agree. In general, it's harder to win with someone else's guys than with your own guys. BK was obviously able to win with someone else's guys. With that in mind, why can't he win with his own guys (which should, in theory, be easier)? Maybe they're the wrong guys (recruiting)? Maybe Weis' guys were further along than Kelly has been able to bring his guys (development)?

It's like in the NCAA video game. You might be able to pick up the controller and win the national championship with the Notre Dame team that comes pre-loaded on the game. The real test is when you get to season 5 and 6 in your Dynasty and all of the players are the ones you recruited and developed.

 

[gkIrish]

And why do you think all 22 of those coaches are as good or better than BK? Very few of them have a comparable body of work. Helfrich, for instance, could very easily turn out like Shaw--the successor to an outstanding coach who will ride the program's momentum for a bit before falling back to his individual level of competence. And who among them could outperform Kelly given ND's unique challenges and would come if Swarbrick offered?

Kind of OT but I would hold off on dismissing Shaw so easily. 11-2, 12-2, and 11-3 in his first three seasons. Stanford has 5 losses but could easily win out and go 8-5, assuming UCLA is the fraud most of us think they are. Could Stanford continue to be an average team going forward? Maybe. But one 5-6 loss season doesn't mean he isn't a good coach. Shaw is 2-2 head to head against BK, with the two losses coming down to the last play essentially.

 

[wizards8507]

And why do you think all 22 of those coaches are as good or better than BK? Very few of them have a comparable body of work. Helfrich, for instance, could very easily turn out like Shaw--the successor to an outstanding coach who will ride the program's momentum for a bit before falling back to his individual level of competence.

Okay now you're talking out of both sides of your mouth a bit. Kelly is awesome because he took (mostly) Weis' guys and went to the national championship before regressing back to 8-5. Shaw sucks because all of his success is attributable to his predecessor.

Kind of OT but I would hold off on dismissing Shaw so easily. 11-2, 12-2, and 11-3 in his first three seasons. Stanford has 5 losses but could easily win out and go 8-5, assuming UCLA is the fraud most of us think they are. Could Stanford continue to be an average team going forward? Maybe. But one 5-6 loss season doesn't mean he isn't a good coach. Shaw is 2-2 head to head against BK, with the two losses coming down to the last play essentially.

Right, this.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Okay now you're talking out of both sides of your mouth a bit. Kelly is awesome because he took (mostly) Weis' guys and went to the national championship before regressing back to 8-5. Shaw sucks because all of his success is attributable to his predecessor.

I don't think many here would dispute that: (1) our football program was a mess when Kelly arrived; and (2) Harbaugh is a genius who built Stanford into a juggernaut, of which Shaw was the beneficiary. So I think it's completely fair to note that their current programs were in very different places when each took over.

The rest is (maybe wishful) projection by me, of course, but I'm unimpressed with Shaw as a coach. I do think he's been riding Harbaugh's coat-tails, and that Stanford will regress back to the mean now that a less talented coach is running the show. But I could be wrong.

 

[IrishLax]

Shaw is literally the most overrated coach in the entire country.

 

[Ndaccountant]

And why do you think all 22 of those coaches are as good or better than BK? Very few of them have a comparable body of work. Helfrich, for instance, could very easily turn out like Shaw--the successor to an outstanding coach who will ride the program's momentum for a bit before falling back to his individual level of competence. And who among them could outperform Kelly given ND's unique challenges and would come if Swarbrick offered?



First, reps for advancing your argument without being a condescending douche bag. Second, I get that it's "Year 5", but the program was at its nadir when Kelly took over. Was a top-20 finish a reasonable expectation in 2010 or 2011? Probably not considering where we were coming from.

Then we had the magical 2012 season, followed by 2013 and 2014, which were both massively impacted by suspensions over which Kelly had no control. I honestly believe that if we'd had Golson in 2013 and the Frozen Five this year, Kelly would be sitting on an extra 2-4 wins, and we wouldn't be having this conversation right now.

First, I think it's unrealistic any of them would come. It's rare for a top level coach at a top-ish level program to jump ship to another.

Next, let's play the game that resources are unlimited and we could have our pick of the litter. I think most, if not all, could produce similar results as BK. With that said, I am of the mind that what ND lacked in the Boob, TW and Chaz eras was a happy marriage between bringing in balanced talent along with good coaching. Boob could recruit well, especially defensively. Everything else was blah. TW was god awful and Chaz could recruit positions he was interested in, and OL and defense wasn't an interest. But Chaz was important in that he showed that top level talent (albeit unbalanced) could be recruited to South Bend post TW. From this POV, BK has clearly been head and shoulders above those three. However, I feel any coach that has a vision and strategy can recruit players to ND.

Which brings me to why I feel most on that list would succeed at ND.....from what I have seen up until this point, those guys run a program in a way that BK does. Yes, some are younger and the book is still out. But when I look at a guy like Gus, I see a guy that has it put together in his mind on how it should be and is able to execute it. Time will tell, but I don't see him dropping off.

I think to say definitively any could outperform with certainty is foolhardy, but it's in my nature to avoid giving the impression of certainty. I do believe many could replicate his results up until this point.

 

[gkIrish]

Shaw is literally the most overrated coach in the entire country.

Steve Spurrier and Sumlin are the most overrated IMO.

 

[Emcee77]

I don't think many here would dispute that: (1) our football program was a mess when Kelly arrived; and (2) Harbaugh is a genius who built Stanford into a juggernaut, of which Shaw was the beneficiary. So I think it's completely fair to note that their current programs were in very different places when each took over.

The rest is (maybe wishful) projection by me, of course, but I'm unimpressed with Shaw as a coach. I do think he's been riding Harbaugh's coat-tails, and that Stanford will regress back to the mean now that a less talented coach is running the show. But I could be wrong.

I don't think you're wrong. That looks like what's happening to me. I know you hate the eye-test, but fwiw, there's a clear eye-test difference between Stanford now and Stanford a couple years ago. It looks like a program on the decline to me.

 

[irishog77]

Steve Spurrier and Sumlin are the most overrated IMO.

Wut? Dude is an amazing coach.

Duke, Florida, and South Carolina were not good programs. He did well at all 3.

 

[ickythump1225]

I've been vocally hammering BK over the past few days because the NW was just ridiculous. However I can't really believe that ND fans who have been fans for at least 10 or so years can so easily dismiss the thought of getting rid of Kelly as it is no big deal. I have my doubts about Kelly being able to take us over the top but my god why in the hell would any ND fan think of BK leaving and go "meh good riddance?"

Wizards and his merry band of trolls just assume we're going to get this coach who is so much better than BK but that s**t is no guarantee. We could very well end up with another Davie, Willingham, or Weis. My faith in BK has been shaken but seriously survey the current HC landscape and ask yourself "Would this coach be objectively better than Kelly and would he actually come here and would he actually be able to navigate the recruiting restrictions?" The list of coaches who meet all of those criteria is very very small.

Meyer, Stoops, and Saban who I consider the top 3 coaches in college football currently are not coming here. Why would they? They all coach at football factories making big bucks already with little to no interference into their plans by pesky things like "academics" or "ethics." The whole college football world saw the "Frozen 5" drama. Could you even fathom that happening at OSU? Alabama? Hell no. Alabama's HC will never wake up in a world where his starting QB is suspended for the year due to academic reasons. OSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma never have to worry if their stud recruit will meet academic requirements unless said recruit is just a complete and total toolbox. (then again Courtney Upshaw played for Alabama).

We aren't living in the 1970s anymore, Notre Dame is no longer perceived to be the premier coaching job in the country at any level. Urban Meyer isn't leaving Ohio State to come to Notre Dame just because. Nick Saban certainly is never leaving Alabama for another college gig. If Bob Stoops decides to leave Oklahoma he'll have his pick of coaching jobs. Florida and Michigan are going to be on the market.

So we're left looking at up and coming coaches but that is another gamble. There's no guarantee that McElwain (to use a name bandied about alot) will be successful at this level. Brian Kelly right now for a myriad of reasons is the best coach for Notre Dame. If BK goes to Florida they will be elite in 2 years. BK without any recruiting restrictions or B.S. interference from the university administration is a top 5 coach in the country. Hell BK with 1 hand tied behind his back and his other hand restrained is still a top 10 coach.

I say all of this as someone who is very pissed and frustrated at BK at the moment by the way. Losing to NW in year 5 is unacceptable and I'm sure BK feels the same way. I just remember Willingham and Weis (wasn't into ND during Davie) and shudder to think what could happen if BK left. I also understand ND's present day reality. ND used to have every advantage in recruiting, now the tables have turned and we're at a disadvantage. College football caught up to us and the game has changed. We can still compete for and win a title but we'll never be the preeminent dynasty in college football ever again. To win at the level of Alabama you need a lot of things ND will never, for a lot of reasons, have.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Which brings me to why I feel most on that list would succeed at ND.....from what I have seen up until this point, those guys run a program in a way that BK does.

Can you expound on that? It seems like being a successful CFB HC requires a very rare mix of very specific skills-- the political savvy of a career politician, the schematic chops of a football nerd, and the organizational/ motivational skills and vision of a successful CEO. The job is brutally difficult, expectations are sky high, and very few people can pull all that together, which is why the average HC's tenure is something like 3-4 years (and getting shorter every year, as the coaching carousel accelerates). Yet BK has built multiple programs (GVSU, CMU, UC) from the ground up into champions as a HC. That's a very rare achievement; which is why I'm skeptical of your impression that there are lots of guys who could do what BK does, simply because very few can touch his resume.

I don't think you're wrong. That looks like what's happening to me. I know you hate the eye-test, but fwiw, there's a clear eye-test difference between Stanford now and Stanford a couple years ago. It looks like a program on the decline to me.

If there's another program out there that labors under restrictions similar to ND, it's Stanford. What Harbaugh accomplished was truly remarkable; so even if Shaw is well-above average in his coaching ability, Stanford is probably still in for a steep decline.