Coaches Poll Top 25 (ND #7)

[DomeX2 eNVy]

Being an admitted hypocrite, it kind off sucks USC lost last night - of course I was cheering Utah on to score to beat them: what a game! As much as my head wanted USC to win for our SOS, in the moment I couldn't give them any good wishes.
Anyway, two points:
1. With USC going down, it leaves ASU as our only quality opponent to get a win against, unless Louisville catches fire. Without a championship game, it puts us at a committee disadvantage; but I still think an 11-1 Irish will advance thanks to what everyone now knows (even if they won't admit) was a BS end to the FSU game at FSU. Utah is a tough, physical team on both sides if you haven't seen them play. They have a great run game with Booker as a true featured back. I think it is an advantage to us that we get ASU right after they play Utah and may be dinged up a bit. Hopefully we get our D through the Navy game without injuries.
2. So the Utah/USC game was #19 v #20. The winner jumps all the way to - - - - #18 in both BS polls, while the loser drops out of the top 25; despite losing on the road in the final seconds. Yet look at the AP poll with Ole Miss and LSU - hmmm, what SEC media bias Mr. Fowler?????? I think Utah fans have the right to be feeling disrespected for a good 6-1 team in the Pac12.

 

[ickythump1225]

Actually you got it completely wrong. Its optimistics that make realists look "pessimistic". Optimism is based on hope, realism is based on actual evidence. Pessimism would be saying that ND had no chance, which was never once mentioned.

Your "we win and everything will work out" situation is not really based on evidence other than your own wishful thinking, however my actual argument where I showed you the different scenarios on how teams can end up and can challenge ND's playoff spot, are based on evidence.

What showed was a bunch of long shot scenarios in which your doomsday predictions will come true. We go through this every season in college football. Most of the time there are 2 or 3 1 loss or less teams tops. No we have a loss and a lot of pessimists come out think this is the year there will be like 8 or 9 1 loss teams. The odds of all of those other teams winning out while we win out is not very probable.

The odds aren't stacked in your favor. It is far more REALISTIC that at least a couple of those 1 loss teams (to include ND) lose at least 1 more game. Your argument is not "based on evidence" it's based on your pessimistic thinking and is nothing more than your own imagination working things out so your outlook looks more "realistic."

What I am saying is, if we win out we have a very good shot at making the postseason because it is very likely that at least a few of those other teams drop a game along the way. Not to mention a lot of the other teams we're jockeying against are from the same division. Alabama still has to play Auburn and Miss St. Auburn has to play Georgia and Alabama. Miss St. still has to play Alabama and Auburn. There is so much time left for SECw cannibalization.

People just need to relax good lord. Even if we win out and through some minor miracle at least 4 other teams have 1 loss or less and the committee chooses them over us then oh damn well. We'll get a great bowl game, hopefully win, and be 12-1 with a stacked team coming back next year. But no one knows how the committee will vote, and until I see actual rankings coming from them it is too early to panic about what might happen.

Why make up worst case scenarios to fret about? Let us actually get to 11-1 and let the chips fall where they may. If we get to 11-1 and don't get selected then you can fret all you want but there's still 5 games left to be played so why worry about it?

 

[Rhode Irish]

This is where im at too. I wouldn't be shocked to see us come in at 9.

I think we will be 5th. Writers and coaches don't really pay attention to teams they don't cover or coach against. Plus, there is a ton of politics involved. The committee is paid to study this and should come up with something much better than these polls.

You'd have to be drunk or stupid to have Michigan State or Oregon ahead of Notre Dame. Auburn may deserve to be ahead of us for now, but they will lose again. I don't think Mississippi State finishes with only one loss, either. I think people saying that if ND wins out they will be in are being very realistic. It isn't a lock, but it is very likely. I'd put it at 80/20.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Even if we are 9th, when has a P5 team that was in ninth in late October not had a chance to move into the top 4? It will work itself out if we can handle our own business.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Last year there were 6 P5 teams who were undefeated or had 1 loss at the end of the year. FSU, Auburn, Bama, and Sparty were top 4, and Baylor & OSU were the ones who missed out. They both lost very late in the season. The #9 team after Week 9 was Missouri, who had a chance to be top 4 if they had won the SECCG.

 

[ickythump1225]

Last year there were 6 P5 teams who were undefeated or had 1 loss at the end of the year. FSU, Auburn, Bama, and Sparty were top 4, and Baylor & OSU were the ones who missed out. They both lost very late in the season. The #9 team after Week 9 was Missouri, who had a chance to be top 4 if they had won the SECCG.

This season with the SECw being so over represented all of those teams are going to sustain more losses. OSU and MSU play each other still. A lot of time for cannibalism to happen.

 

[Bishop2b5]

For what it's worth, my opinion is that if ND wins out, your one loss being to FSU gives you about a 90% chance of being in the playoff. I can't see any other one loss team having a better claim to a spot, other than a one loss SEC champion. Miss. St. won't go undefeated and that means that at most, FSU will be the only 12-0 team. The other 3 teams will have a loss. Your schedule and the quality of your one loss will be more than enough to earn one of those spots.

 

[IrishinSyria]

This season with the SECw being so over represented all of those teams are going to sustain more losses. OSU and MSU play each other still. A lot of time for cannibalism to happen.

Double edged sword tho. A lot of time for cannibalism, or a lot of opportunity for teams to build better resumes than ours.

It's pretty easy to imagine scenarios where the SEC sends two teams to the playoffs. I don't feel like breaking down schedules, but I think the phrase don't forget Georgia sums it up pretty nicely.

If TCU gets by their next 2 games they can pretty much coast into a playoff spot. Conversely, if they lose to K-State, K-State has a clear path to Baylor. Want to bet that the winner of 1-loss K-State vs. 1-loss Baylor makes it in?

I agree that there's a lot of football left to be played and a lot of time left for teams to trip up, but I am starting to worry that we're getting to a point where one of our rivals tripping is just going to provide a boost to another one.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

What showed was a bunch of long shot scenarios in which your doomsday predictions will come true. We go through this every season in college football. Most of the time there are 2 or 3 1 loss or less teams tops. No we have a loss and a lot of pessimists come out think this is the year there will be like 8 or 9 1 loss teams. The odds of all of those other teams winning out while we win out is not very probable.

The odds aren't stacked in your favor. It is far more REALISTIC that at least a couple of those 1 loss teams (to include ND) lose at least 1 more game. Your argument is not "based on evidence" it's based on your pessimistic thinking and is nothing more than your own imagination working things out so your outlook looks more "realistic."

What I am saying is, if we win out we have a very good shot at making the postseason because it is very likely that at least a few of those other teams drop a game along the way. Not to mention a lot of the other teams we're jockeying against are from the same division. Alabama still has to play Auburn and Miss St. Auburn has to play Georgia and Alabama. Miss St. still has to play Alabama and Auburn. There is so much time left for SECw cannibalization.

People just need to relax good lord. Even if we win out and through some minor miracle at least 4 other teams have 1 loss or less and the committee chooses them over us then oh damn well. We'll get a great bowl game, hopefully win, and be 12-1 with a stacked team coming back next year. But no one knows how the committee will vote, and until I see actual rankings coming from them it is too early to panic about what might happen.

Why make up worst case scenarios to fret about? Let us actually get to 11-1 and let the chips fall where they may. If we get to 11-1 and don't get selected then you can fret all you want but there's still 5 games left to be played so why worry about it?

You conveniently left out the biggest threats: Oregon and the MSU/OSU winner. Great chance to run the table along with a conference championship. I'm not saying ND has zero chance. I'm not saying ND has 100% chance. But as long as Oregon, MSU/OSU keep winning, ND will have a tough time getting in ahead of them. You can count on that. Beating ASU will help ND's case, but w/o a conference championship to win, I'm not convinced it's as simple as the "win and ND's in" mentality that some people tend to have around here.

Just recently the committee released some criteria for playoff selection and conference championships were listed. I don't care what power 5 conference you come from, if you win it and have a good record, you're going to get serious consideration. This is where MSU/OSU come in to play. The Big 12 and ND will almost certainly feel the pressure based on conference champions alone. They also mentioned common opponents. ND and Oregon will most likely have ASU as a common opponent. That game is very important.

Edit: Forgot to add that I do agree with posters that the SEC and Big 12 will cannibalize themselves, most likely. However, as mentioned above, we can't forget about Georgia. I've been saying this for over a week now that if Georgia wins the SEC, it will not surprise me one bit to see Georgia AND a representative from the SEC-W get in. Someone from the Big12 will have to run the table to get in. Without a conf. champ, they don't have a prayer unless someone rolls the rest of the way.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think we will be 5th. Writers and coaches don't really pay attention to teams they don't cover or coach against. Plus, there is a ton of politics involved. The committee is paid to study this and should come up with something much better than these polls.

You'd have to be drunk or stupid to have Michigan State or Oregon ahead of Notre Dame. Auburn may deserve to be ahead of us for now, but they will lose again. I don't think Mississippi State finishes with only one loss, either. I think people saying that if ND wins out they will be in are being very realistic. It isn't a lock, but it is very likely. I'd put it at 80/20.

I agree on MSU but not Oregon. ND has not beat a currently ranked team, yet. They may have the "better" loss, but Oregon killed current ranked MSU. And their one loss is to current ranked Arizona. I'm not going to debate who is better, ND or Oregon, but at this point I'm not so sure that "You'd have to be drunk or stupid to have (Michigan State or) Oregon ahead of Notre Dame."

 

[ulukinatme]

We really do need Oregon to drop another game, hopefully against Stanford. Of course, we need to win out too, and I think that's going to be a difficult task. ASU will be good and Graham always coaches well against us. USC will be a game, even if their depth is weak. Louisville will be challenging.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I am not 'fretting" about anything. You asked for evidence and I showed it to you. It's not my problem that you have rationalized yourself into thinking that other conferences are just not that good and can be thrown out of the equation without legitimacy. I highly doubt the committee will just throw out Big 10 and Big 12 champs and just let ND walk right in. I just don't let homerism cloud my vision of reality. I personally prefer to know reality of the situation. Its better for planning in life.

You showed me no evidence, you simply posted a list of teams that only have one loss. You didn't explain how the scenario plays out that any of them end up with only one loss and ahead of ND for the 4th spot in the playoff.

I'm not just throwing them out of the equation. I systematically looked at each of the B1Gs schedules and realized that a 1-loss tOSU or MSU team has no marquee victories. MSU would be most dangerous, because their one loss would be to Oregon but that means Oregon has to win out or it looks less impressive. tOSU's loss to VT was bad and their marquee win would be MSU. Comparable games had us blanking Michigan and beating Purdue by a couple of scores.

The BIG 12 is a little different. Baylor, WVU, KSU and TCU will work itself out. At the end of the day, if we win out, I like our body of work over those other 3 programs. Baylor puts up video game numbers but also gives up video game numbers. KSU has to play each of Baylor, WVU and TCU in the coming weeks. TCU has WVU and KSU in back to back games.

Their could be a bit of a war if KSU wins out but there is a lot of football left to be played between that scenario and where we stand today.

Oregon has Stanford and Utah and may be the only true threat I see but once again, all the Irish can control are the games in front of them. Arizona has UCLA, Utah, ASU.

Condescension aside, I agree that a clear view is imperative to life planning and understanding. What I've just described seems to be a reasonable, non-homer way to view things.

Another thing I've learned is that it's pointless to worry about things outside of your control. Control what you can and let the rest play itself out. If you are on the losing end, receive it graciously and hope for better circumstances next time.

Notre Dame is capable of one thing: winning every game left on the schedule. They can do it convincingly or in the waning moments, they can add style points or run a high-powered offense, lock down on defense or skim by each of their opponents. These are the only things in their control.

I'll let the season play out and root for Notre Dame. If I happen to see some other games, I'll root for those in front of us to lose. But as has been said, win and everything else will take care of itself.

If a 1-loss ND team is held out of the playoffs then we'll look forward to whatever bowl game we have, hope to close out recruiting in a strong fashion and bring back nearly 22 starters from a 1-loss team.

If we lose another game then it was moot. Go Irish!

 

[ickythump1225]

You conveniently left out the biggest threats: Oregon and the MSU/OSU winner. Great chance to run the table along with a conference championship. I'm not saying ND has zero chance. I'm not saying ND has 100% chance. But as long as Oregon, MSU/OSU keep winning, ND will have a tough time getting in ahead of them. You can count on that. Beating ASU will help ND's case, but w/o a conference championship to win, I'm not convinced it's as simple as the "win and ND's in" mentality that some people tend to have around here.

Just recently the committee released some criteria for playoff selection and conference championships were listed. I don't care what power 5 conference you come from, if you win it and have a good record, you're going to get serious consideration. This is where MSU/OSU come in to play. The Big 12 and ND will almost certainly feel the pressure based on conference champions alone. They also mentioned common opponents. ND and Oregon will most likely have ASU as a common opponent. That game is very important.

Edit: Forgot to add that I do agree with posters that the SEC and Big 12 will cannibalize themselves, most likely. However, as mentioned above, we can't forget about Georgia. I've been saying this for over a week now that if Georgia wins the SEC, it will not surprise me one bit to see Georgia AND a representative from the SEC-W get in. Someone from the Big12 will have to run the table to get in. Without a conf. champ, they don't have a prayer unless someone rolls the rest of the way.

Well if the committee is going to take conference championships so seriously, as you suggest, they can't really take a team that didn't win their conference right? I mean it is easy to explain why we won't have a conference title at the end of the year, but if you are in a conference and you don't win it...how do you deserve to go? You can't worry about conference championships as a deterrent to ND's chances but then overlook that aspect to place a second SEC team in the playoffs.

 

[phork]

Conference championships will certainly be looked at favourably. However, they won't be that big of an indicator.

I laugh at ESPNs power rankings that say ND hasn't played anyone and lost to the best team on their schedule while in the same breath laugh off Oregons loss to Arizona.

 

[gkIrish]

Conference championships will certainly be looked at favourably. However, they won't be that big of an indicator.

I laugh at ESPNs power rankings that say ND hasn't played anyone and lost to the best team on their schedule while in the same breath laugh off Oregons loss to Arizona.

Arizona isn't a bad loss as they are the #15 team in the country. Oregon beat the #5 team in the country. Why does everyone think Oregon's resume is so much worse than ours? I think it's clearly better right now.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Arizona isn't a bad loss as they are the #15 team in the country. Oregon beat the #5 team in the country. Why does everyone think Oregon's resume is so much worse than ours? I think it's clearly better right now.

I actually agree with you right now. Oregon's resume is better as it stands and more can be determined after this next week. We need to put up a convincing win and hope that Oregon has trouble with Stanford.

Our loss looks better than their loss but their best win is better than ours so far. If we are able to beat ASU and USC and Louisville (& assuming the others) then I think we have a better resume before conference championships. Now, if they demolish Stanford that'll be ahashmark in their favor.

We also have the tougher schedule to close out the season so I think it allows us to create some momentum as the regular season comes to a close but I'm still worried about simply winning because that isn't guaranteed.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Make of these what you will. Undefeated and one-loss teams in the BCS rankings (post-conference championships, pre-bowl games):

2013:
1. FSU 13-0 (won ACC)
2. Auburb 12-1 (won SEC)
3. Alabama 11-1
4. Michigan State 12-1 (won BIG)
5. Stanford 11-2 (won PAC)
6. Baylor 11-1
7. Ohio State 12-1 (lost BIG)

2012:
1. ND 12-0
2. Alabama 12-1
3. Florida 11-1
4. Oregon 11-1
5. K-State 11-1

2011:
1. LSU 13-0
2. Alabama 11-1
3. OK State 11-1
4. Stanford 11-1
5. Oregon 11-2
6. Arkansas 10-2
7. Boise State 11-1

2010:
1. Auburn 13-0
2. Oregon 12-0
3. TCU 12-0
4. Stanford 11-1
5. Wisconsin 11-1
6. Ohio State 11-1
...
9. Michigan State 11-1
0. Boise State 11-1

2009:
1. Alabama 13-0
2. Texas 13-0
3. Cincinnati 13-0
4. TCU 12-0
5. Florida 12-1
6. Boise State 13-0

 

[IrishinSyria]

Make of these what you will. Undefeated and one-loss teams in the BCS rankings (post-conference championships, pre-bowl games):

2013:
1. FSU 13-0 (won ACC)
2. Auburb 12-1 (won SEC)
3. Alabama 11-1
4. Michigan State 12-1 (won BIG)
5. Stanford 11-2 (won PAC)
6. Baylor 11-1
7. Ohio State 12-1 (lost BIG)

2012:
1. ND 12-0
2. Alabama 12-1
3. Florida 11-1
4. Oregon 11-1
5. K-State 11-1

2011:
1. LSU 13-0
2. Alabama 11-1
3. OK State 11-1
4. Stanford 11-1
5. Oregon 11-2
6. Arkansas 10-2
7. Boise State 11-1

2010:
1. Auburn 13-0
2. Oregon 12-0
3. TCU 12-0
4. Stanford 11-1
5. Wisconsin 11-1
6. Ohio State 11-1
...
9. Michigan State 11-1
0. Boise State 11-1

2009:
1. Alabama 13-0
2. Texas 13-0
3. Cincinnati 13-0
4. TCU 12-0
5. Florida 12-1
6. Boise State 13-0

We're f*cked

 

[Circa]

Anyone interested in what a real OPI looks like, needs to look no further. Steve Smith’s Potential Game Winning Touchdown Negated by Offensive Pass Interference Call | The Big Lead

 

[Grahambo]

This is why the Coaches Poll is absolutely worthless. Also, hasn't coached since 2008. Also doesn't think Condi Rice deserves to be on the CFB Playoff Committee because she hasn't coached or played football...despite two other members not having coached or played.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"Knowledgeable" Tommy Bowden ranks Michigan St third, Oregon sixth. <a href="http://t.co/8TIcH5oxhF">http://t.co/8TIcH5oxhF</a> Betting Condi knows they played each other</p>— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanWetzel/status/526909515502219265">October 28, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishLax]

This is why the Coaches Poll is absolutely worthless. Also, hasn't coached since 2008. Also doesn't think Condi Rice deserves to be on the CFB Playoff Committee because she hasn't coached or played football...despite two other members not having coached or played.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"Knowledgeable" Tommy Bowden ranks Michigan St third, Oregon sixth. <a href="http://t.co/8TIcH5oxhF">http://t.co/8TIcH5oxhF</a> Betting Condi knows they played each other</p>— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanWetzel/status/526909515502219265">October 28, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I have zero faith in the system. None. Too many people are ignorant or biased that wield power in things like polls... and the selection committee is just another poll with lots of $$$ and prestige attached to it.

 

[BobD]

I have zero faith in the system. None. Too many people are ignorant or biased that wield power in things like polls... and the selection committee is just another poll with lots of $$$ and prestige attached to it.

I will have zero faith in the system if they rank us low and complete faith if they rank us high. Every year no matter how well we're playing.

 

[Irish Insanity]

On MNF halftime Herbie just listed Oregon and Alabama as his #3 and #4 with ND and TCU knocking on the door.

 

[Grahambo]

I have zero faith in the system. None. Too many people are ignorant or biased that wield power in things like polls... and the selection committee is just another poll with lots of $$$ and prestige attached to it.

You should read his reasoning behind his rankings.

 

[BGIF]

Arizona isn't a bad loss as they are the #15 team in the country. Oregon beat the #5 team in the country. Why does everyone think Oregon's resume is so much worse than ours? I think it's clearly better right now.

It's neither.

Sagarin ranks Oregon with the 34th Toughest Schedule and ND with the 36th.

 

[ACamp1900]

Is Bowden on the committee??

Whatever I'm resigned to/ cool with whatever happens so long as ND wins ten and gets one of the big bowls (even outside the playoff)

 

[NCND]

Is Bowden on the committee??

Whatever I'm resigned to/ cool with whatever happens so long as ND wins ten and gets one of the big bowls (even outside the playoff)

Nah he is not. I agree, get into one of the major bowls and I will be happy.

 

[ickythump1225]

Is Bowden on the committee??

Whatever I'm resigned to/ cool with whatever happens so long as ND wins ten and gets one of the big bowls (even outside the playoff)

Of course I want ND to make the playoffs and wreck worlds and win the title. However if the worst thing that happens to this team is that they win 11 or 12 games and win a big bowl game I won't be too upset.