OKLAHOMA (–3.5) at NOTRE DAME• 3:30 pm (NBC)
The oddsmakers' faith in Oklahoma on the road reflects their faith in quarterback Blake Bell, who finally shed his one-dimensional, "Belldozer" reputation by passing for 413 yards and four touchdowns in his first career start, a 51–20 blowout over Tulsa. That was a far cry from the blueprint in the previous game, a low-scoring, mistake-filled slog against West Virginia, in which the Sooners kept the ball on the ground on 57 of 78 snaps and pulled starter Trevor Knight for Bell in the fourth quarter. (We learned later that Knight played part of the game on a bad knee, but that means little to a fan base that second-guessed the decision to start Knight over Bell in the first place.) With Knight, the Sooners were taking a shot on an undersized scrambler they hoped could do for them what Johnny Manziel did to them in last January's Cotton Bowl. With Bell, they're reverting back to their comfort zone: A big, statuesque presence in the pocket with an arm trustworthy enough to put the ball in the air 40 times per game. If nothing else, what he lacks in accuracy and consistency compared to Sam Bradford and Landry Jones, he makes up for in his value as a short-yardage runner.
In fact, Oklahoma's offense may look more like the attack that Notre Dame's defense held to 13 points last year than vice versa. Against Michigan, the Irish were torched for 41 points on 460 yards of total offense, numbers the 2012 defense would not have dreamed of allowing to anyone except Alabama. More reassuring box scores against Michigan State and Purdue haven't been able to mask how badly the defense misses Manti Te'o in the middle, as well as Stephon Tuitt as a reliable force in the pass rush. (Last week against MSU was Tuitt's best game of the early season, by far, an encouraging sign that he may be rounding back into 2012 form.) Landry Jones came out of last year's game with more yards (364) and a higher efficiency rating (124.2) than any other quarterback against Notre Dame in the regular season, but had no run support and barely made a dent on the scoreboard. These Irish have been just forgiving enough against the run to predict more time for Bell, and more importantly, more time for his receivers against a very vulnerable secondary.
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Oklahoma 28, Notre Dame 23
