I've been thinking a lot about this issue recently and this post inspired some research. I currently coach HS ball in Massachusetts, but have spent the past 6 years involved with football nationally and internationally. I'm frustrated with the stringent rules governing the sport in MA and see our players develop at a much slower pace than the rest of the country. It's not only the rules but also the coaches' approach to off-season development.
After seeing the numbers below, it's difficult not to agree with Tom that more lenient rules governing the off-season are a BIG reason why some states thrive and others don't. Of course the big missing piece to this is racial demographics, but just looking at population, the South is pretty dominant.
I also added Utah, Hawaii and American Samoa to the list because their numbers are a clear indication of the talent polynesian players bring to the table (the main reason I want Luatua at ND!).
I used this article from Rivals.com for the data:
Rivals.com Football Recruiting - Where the FBS signees come from
NY and Illinois are likely lagging due to the reasons listed by Buster. Pennsylvania, NC, NJ and Virginia are respectable while Ohio is where they should be. Michigan is the only "northern" state outperforming their population while ALL of the southern states I looked at (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Louisianna) are.
1) California
(251 signees, 104k playing, 416 ratio) - Rank #12
2) Texas
(346 signees, 167k playing, 485 ratio) - Rank #16
3) New York
(27 signees, 35k playing, 1,317 ratio) - Rank #34
4) Florida
(332 signees, 41k playing, 124 ratio) - Rank #1
5) Illinois
(77 signees, 47k playing, 617 ratio) - Rank #20
6) Pennsylvania
(63 signees, 26k playing, 419 ratio) - Rank #13
7) Ohio
(145 signees, 46k playing, 321 ratio) - Rank #8
8) Georgia
(184 signees, 32k playing, 178 ratio) - Rank #2
9) Michigan
(62 signees, 42k playing, 690 ratio) - Rank #24
10) North Carolina
(73 signees, 35k playing, 485 ratio) - Rank #15
11) New Jersey
(56 signees, 25k playing, 419 ratio) - Rank #14
12) Virginia
(79 signees, 25k playing, 323 ratio) - Rank #10
14) Massachusetts
(10 signees, 19k playing, 1,987 ratio) - Rank #36
23) Alabama (
83 signees, 22k playing, 274 ratio) - Rank #6
25) Louisiana
(81 signees, 20k playing, 251 ratio) - Rank #5
POLYNESIANS
34) Utah
(36 signees, 8k playing, 229 ratio) - Rank #3
40) Hawaii
(20 signees, 5k playing, 244 ratio) - Rank #4
NA American Samoa
(5 signees, 300 playing, 60 ratio) - Would be ranked #1