Who do you want to replace Brian Kelly?

gkIrish

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They don't have mediocre talent. They have elite talent relative to their competition, which he deserves some credit for. The entire problem with hiring guys like Harsin, Petersen, Herman, Fleck, etc is that they're winning with a talent edge. That's the Saban model... get better players, beat them with your better players. How many coaches can do that in P5? Can they adjust to not having a talent edge? Can they also be scheme superior like an Art Briles?

I, personally, would take one of those guys. But the losses are red flags. It's the kind of thing we crucify BK for... not consistently beating inferior opponents. Having teams without mental toughness that only get 'up' for certain games.

Houston had the 92nd ranked class in 2015 and 36th ranked class in 2016. I don't view that as anything better than mediocre. Once you get outside of a certain level the difference in talent doesn't mean much. Take into account that teams view them as a big time opponent now you are going to see them lose to a couple teams they shouldn't lose to. Notre Dame has been doing it for a decade plus but with much better talent.
 

Irish YJ

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They don't have mediocre talent. They have elite talent relative to their competition, which he deserves some credit for. The entire problem with hiring guys like Harsin, Petersen, Herman, Fleck, etc is that they're winning with a talent edge. That's the Saban model... get better players, beat them with your better players. How many coaches can do that in P5? Can they adjust to not having a talent edge? Can they also be scheme superior like an Art Briles?

I, personally, would take one of those guys. But the losses are red flags. It's the kind of thing we crucify BK for... not consistently beating inferior opponents. Having teams without mental toughness that only get 'up' for certain games.

The have less talent than OK, FSU, and Louisville, which Houston will have a combined 4 wins against over the last two years should they win tonight. Believe they also beat 3 or 4 other top 25 teams as well (top 25 when played).
 

gkIrish

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Don't get me wrong, I'll swap staffs tomorrow but he's let his team lose two games they shouldn't have. Same problem we've had with BK for 6 of his 7 seasons.

Perfect candidates do not exist. Jack's task is to find the guy that has the potential to win a championship. I've said it many times...BK was not a bad hire. He checked all the right boxes. Many of the same boxes Herman checks. Plus Herman has big-program success which Kelly never had. Kelly just didn't work out. Doesn't mean you don't hire Herman because he has lost to a couple so-so teams.
 

BobbyMac

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Is he a good enough recruiter for ND?

As mentioned above, last years class was #36 nationally with 5star Oliver and 4 star Dixon headliners. This year he's still at #36 with 20 recruits on board. Shouldn't he being doing a little better down there in recruiting heaven? I mean, here's his #1 recruit this cycle:

<iframe class="twofourseven-embed" style="max-width: 100%" frameborder="0" width="600" height="200" src="http://247sports.com/PlayerSport/Mohamed-Sanogo-at-Plano-West-145904/Embed"></iframe><script async src="https://assets.247sports.com/Scripts/Shared/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

NDgradstudent

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Is he a good enough recruiter for ND?

As mentioned above, last years class was #36 nationally with 5star Oliver and 4 star Dixon headliners. This year he's still at #36 with 20 recruits on board. Shouldn't he being doing a little better down there in recruiting heaven? I mean, here's his #1 recruit this cycle:

<iframe class="twofourseven-embed" style="max-width: 100%" frameborder="0" width="600" height="200" src="http://247sports.com/PlayerSport/Mohamed-Sanogo-at-Plano-West-145904/Embed"></iframe><script async src="https://assets.247sports.com/Scripts/Shared/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It's still Houston. He'd be an improvement over Brian VanKelly.
 

Irish YJ

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Is he a good enough recruiter for ND?

As mentioned above, last years class was #36 nationally with 5star Oliver and 4 star Dixon headliners. This year he's still at #36 with 20 recruits on board. Shouldn't he being doing a little better down there in recruiting heaven? I mean, here's his #1 recruit this cycle:

<iframe class="twofourseven-embed" style="max-width: 100%" frameborder="0" width="600" height="200" src="http://247sports.com/PlayerSport/Mohamed-Sanogo-at-Plano-West-145904/Embed"></iframe><script async src="https://assets.247sports.com/Scripts/Shared/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

30s is pretty good compared to 90s and 70s (where they were before). Given what they have, and what they don't have going for them, I think he showed immediate improvement. He also showed he could develop the 2 and 3 star....

I think recruiting in general is hard to gauge at Houston. The kids he's recruiting know he's likely to head somewhere else shortly, so it's not like a lot of blue chips are going to come to Houston just to play for him. Regardless, he did show he could quickly improve, and quickly develop compared to his predecessor
 

gkIrish

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Is he a good enough recruiter for ND?

As mentioned above, last years class was #36 nationally with 5star Oliver and 4 star Dixon headliners. This year he's still at #36 with 20 recruits on board. Shouldn't he being doing a little better down there in recruiting heaven? I mean, here's his #1 recruit this cycle:

<iframe class="twofourseven-embed" style="max-width: 100%" frameborder="0" width="600" height="200" src="http://247sports.com/PlayerSport/Mohamed-Sanogo-at-Plano-West-145904/Embed"></iframe><script async src="https://assets.247sports.com/Scripts/Shared/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The highest ranked class at Houston before Herman got there (going back to 2005) was 56. So no, he shouldn't be doing a little better.
 

BGIF

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The highest ranked class at Houston before Herman got there (going back to 2005) was 56. So no, he shouldn't be doing a little better.


The highest recruiting ranking Navy had through 2012, current rosters, was 81.

2012 - 2016: 87th, 81, 114, 114, 118 for a 103 average.

Navy hasn't had a #5 ranked (caliber) player like Oliver since Joe Bellino in 1960 and Roger Staubach in the 1963.



Following your logic, ND should be offering Niumatalolo the ND Endowment.
 

gkIrish

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The highest recruiting ranking Navy had through 2012, current rosters, was 81.

2012 - 2016: 87th, 81, 114, 114, 118 for a 103 average.

Navy hasn't had a #5 ranked (caliber) player like Oliver since Joe Bellino in 1960 and Roger Staubach in the 1963.



Following your logic, ND should be offering Niumatalolo the ND Endowment.

What is your point? Every coach in America has lost to inferior teams. The relevant questions are (1) How often does this happen and (2) How often do they beat better teams?
 

BobbyMac

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The highest ranked class at Houston before Herman got there (going back to 2005) was 56. So no, he shouldn't be doing a little better.

So you think if Urban went there he would still be in the 30's?

If he's the real deal, I'd say he should be the #3 recruiter in the state of Texas behind the Big 2.
 

gkIrish

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So you think if Urban went there he would still be in the 30's?

If he's the real deal, I'd say he should be the #3 recruiter in the state of Texas behind the Big 2.

You are trying to compare apples and oranges. 2016 Urban Meyer would have a top 10 class at literally any program with reasonable resources. Pre-Florida Urban Meyer would have a 30 ish class at best.
 

gkIrish

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That your spin is specious.

Niumatalolo beat Herman with a lot, lot less material.

BGIF you have been around long enough to know that there are exceptions to literally every argument someone can make in the realm of sports. If the existence of an exception invalidates the argument, then let's all just log off right now and quit.

Nick Saban has lost to inferior talent too. Guess we can cross his name off our list?
 

BGIF

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BGIF you have been around long enough to know that there are exceptions to literally every argument someone can make in the realm of sports. If the existence of an exception invalidates the argument, then let's all just log off right now and quit.

Nick Saban has lost to inferior talent too. Guess we can cross his name off our list?


Nick Saban lost to UAB in the Blazers 5th year in Div 1A, I watched the game.

Saban's also won five national championships at two different schools and was 3-0 against ND at MSU.

Saban's coached something like 260 games, Herman less than 25.

Kelly won 85%, 850 of his games at Cincinnati, a program that was below .500 for it's history before he came there. How well has that success at a non-Power 5 program carried out at ND? Better than Davie, Willingham, and Weis but not by much, has it?

Faust was one of the greatest high school coaches of all-time when he came to ND and found he was in over his head. He was possibly the best recruiter of all time cranking out #1 classes. Weis had a fantastic record as a NFL OC and a schematic advantage. How well did that transfer to success at ND?

I'm not interested in the coach du jour. I'm not looking for a coach that can improve from 8-5 to 9-4 AT NOTRE DAME, like you apparently are. Spare me the Herman spin. He's played Sagarin's 88 Toughest Schedule and tonight he beat a team whose success came against the 80th Toughest Schedule. The only teams in the Top 25 with softer schedules than UH and UL are WMU, 105th, and SDS, 126th.

Herman's beat FSU, OU, and UL in two years. That's great. ND faces 3 to 8 opponents like that in a year and can see a tougher lineup in 3 consecutive weeks. ND doesn't get to play "teams" like Lamar (who the fuck is Lamar) in between the tough opponents. Notre Dame hasn't played a punching bag like Lamar (All-Time winning percentage .464 since the 1930's.

Where Kelly has to plug in an 18 or 19 year old underclassmen to replace an Elmer or a Robinson, at Houston herman plugs in an instant starter like 22 year JUCO like Na'Ty Rogers.

You quibble about the existence of an exception invalidating an argument, when your argument is a collection of quibbles which ignore the fundamental requirements and restrictions for the head coaching job at Notre Dame.

Parseghian lost to Xavier as a head coach when he was at Ohio. He never played a small college at Northwestern. Opponents were all Big Ten with OOC opponents like ND, OU, and Stanford. He was a head coach for 13 years before coming to ND and came within 2 minutes of a National Championship in his first season. He won 84% of his games at ND. He was prepared for the ND when he arrived on campus. There was no O.J.T. required. When asked about his prior experience preparing him for the ND job, Ara responded, "I needed every year to prepare for the demands of Notre Dame."
 

IrishLax

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BGIF you have been around long enough to know that there are exceptions to literally every argument someone can make in the realm of sports. If the existence of an exception invalidates the argument, then let's all just log off right now and quit.

Nick Saban has lost to inferior talent too. Guess we can cross his name off our list?

The point is more that Herman has negatives that must be appreciated, chief of which is his short track record and quizzical losses to terrible teams while always showing up when the underdog against top level Power 5 competition. That sample size is 3 total games, though.

He came out and beat FSU in a bowl game last year, the only other P5 team they played was an 8-5 Louisville team. This year they played Oklahoma and Louisville and frankly dominated both of those games. That's three for three against teams you'd expect Kelly & Notre Dame to not win regularly, much less dominate.

But he had an inexplicable loss to a terrible UCONN team last year, and his team has basically played like dog shit for a whole month this year... losing to Navy and a terrible SMU teams, and needing miracles to beat lowly UCF and Tulsa. The product on the field was crap. In F/+, which is the best measure of "on field product" that we have, Houston ranks outside the top 25 and one spot in front of this terrible Notre Dame team.

It is reasonable for people to question whether Herman is a flash in the pan when you watched his team play in October. It's also reasonable to point at his wins and go "holy shit all this guy does is win big games." I think he'd be a high upside hire, but he has a ton of risk and I think people are lying to themselves if they don't see that.

It should also be noted that it is very easy to win at Houston and get quality players relative to their conference peers. Everyone knows recruiting rankings aren't accurate for schools without "pub" and that are outside the P5 because the services choose not to scout most kids without major P5 offers. When you look at what Briles and Sumlin did before him they both out-scheme and out-talented the competition. Briles proved that his schemes were so good that it translated to P5 success. Sumlin has had mixed results once up jumped. What kind of results will Herman have? It's the same discussion people had for years about Boise State in the Mountain West... well, Peterson is doing great at Washington. It turns out he didn't need to have the talent edge over his peers to be successful, and people should've seen that coming because of his bowl game success. Same logic should apply to Herman, IMO, looking at this big games. I think his proven ability to consistently beat highly ranked teams proves he can make the jump with success.

I would personally take Fleck over Herman because Fleck built the Western Michigan program... which was one of the worst in the MAC, and had never been ranked... into a power. Whereas Herman is winning at the school that should win his conference ever year.
 

ThePiombino

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BGIF you have been around long enough to know that there are exceptions to literally every argument someone can make in the realm of sports. If the existence of an exception invalidates the argument, then let's all just log off right now and quit.

Nick Saban has lost to inferior talent too. Guess we can cross his name off our list?

Yes, but it has more to do with the fact that Saban wouldn't bang us with a 10' pole and someone else pushing...
 

BGIF

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The point is more that Herman has negatives that must be appreciated, chief of which is his short track record and quizzical losses to terrible teams while always showing up when the underdog against top level Power 5 competition. That sample size is 3 total games, though.

He came out and beat FSU in a bowl game last year, the only other P5 team they played was an 8-5 Louisville team. This year they played Oklahoma and Louisville and frankly dominated both of those games. That's three for three against teams you'd expect Kelly & Notre Dame to not win regularly, much less dominate.

But he had an inexplicable loss to a terrible UCONN team last year, and his team has basically played like dog shit for a whole month this year... losing to Navy and a terrible SMU teams, and needing miracles to beat lowly UCF and Tulsa.[/B] The product on the field was crap. In F/+, which is the best measure of "on field product" that we have, Houston ranks outside the top 25 and one spot in front of this terrible Notre Dame team.

It is reasonable for people to question whether Herman is a flash in the pan when you watched his team play in October. It's also reasonable to point at his wins and go "holy shit all this guy does is win big games." I think he'd be a high upside hire, but he has a ton of risk and I think people are lying to themselves if they don't see that.

It should also be noted that it is very easy to win at Houston and get quality players relative to their conference peers. Everyone knows recruiting rankings aren't accurate for schools without "pub" and that are outside the P5 because the services choose not to scout most kids without major P5 offers. When you look at what Briles and Sumlin did before him they both out-scheme and out-talented the competition. Briles proved that his schemes were so good that it translated to P5 success. Sumlin has had mixed results once up jumped. What kind of results will Herman have? It's the same discussion people had for years about Boise State in the Mountain West... well, Peterson is doing great at Washington. It turns out he didn't need to have the talent edge over his peers to be successful, and people should've seen that coming because of his bowl game success. Same logic should apply to Herman, IMO, looking at this big games. I think his proven ability to consistently beat highly ranked teams proves he can make the jump with success.

I would personally take Fleck over Herman because Fleck built the Western Michigan program... which was one of the worst in the MAC, and had never been ranked... into a power. Whereas Herman is winning at the school that should win his conference ever year.



I question Fleck for the same reasons I question Herman although he has a little more experience. I'm curious about (not championing) Mike MacIntyre from CU. He turned SJS around despite having Kent Baer as his DC and now he's having a incredible year at a dogmeat program.
 

Irish#1

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Don't get me wrong, I'll swap staffs tomorrow but he's let his team lose two games they shouldn't have. Same problem we've had with BK for 6 of his 7 seasons.

.
 
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Classic Irish

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Nick Saban lost to UAB in the Blazers 5th year in Div 1A, I watched the game.

Saban's also won five national championships at two different schools and was 3-0 against ND at MSU.

Saban's coached something like 260 games, Herman less than 25.

Kelly won 85%, 850 of his games at Cincinnati, a program that was below .500 for it's history before he came there. How well has that success at a non-Power 5 program carried out at ND? Better than Davie, Willingham, and Weis but not by much, has it?

Faust was one of the greatest high school coaches of all-time when he came to ND and found he was in over his head. He was possibly the best recruiter of all time cranking out #1 classes. Weis had a fantastic record as a NFL OC and a schematic advantage. How well did that transfer to success at ND?

I'm not interested in the coach du jour. I'm not looking for a coach that can improve from 8-5 to 9-4 AT NOTRE DAME, like you apparently are. Spare me the Herman spin. He's played Sagarin's 88 Toughest Schedule and tonight he beat a team whose success came against the 80th Toughest Schedule. The only teams in the Top 25 with softer schedules than UH and UL are WMU, 105th, and SDS, 126th.

Herman's beat FSU, OU, and UL in two years. That's great. ND faces 3 to 8 opponents like that in a year and can see a tougher lineup in 3 consecutive weeks. ND doesn't get to play "teams" like Lamar (who the fuck is Lamar) in between the tough opponents. Notre Dame hasn't played a punching bag like Lamar (All-Time winning percentage .464 since the 1930's.

Where Kelly has to plug in an 18 or 19 year old underclassmen to replace an Elmer or a Robinson, at Houston herman plugs in an instant starter like 22 year JUCO like Na'Ty Rogers.

You quibble about the existence of an exception invalidating an argument, when your argument is a collection of quibbles which ignore the fundamental requirements and restrictions for the head coaching job at Notre Dame.

Parseghian lost to Xavier as a head coach when he was at Ohio. He never played a small college at Northwestern. Opponents were all Big Ten with OOC opponents like ND, OU, and Stanford. He was a head coach for 13 years before coming to ND and came within 2 minutes of a National Championship in his first season. He won 84% of his games at ND. He was prepared for the ND when he arrived on campus. There was no O.J.T. required. When asked about his prior experience preparing him for the ND job, Ara responded, "I needed every year to prepare for the demands of Notre Dame."

Excellent post. Needless to say, all of this talk about Herman is moot given that:
1) Kelly will be back next year
2) nobody knows if Herman would even be interested in the ND job (other programs may be a better fit for him)

I, for one, would like to see more than two seasons at Houston before seriously considering Herman.
 

Classic Irish

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I would personally take Fleck over Herman because Fleck built the Western Michigan program... which was one of the worst in the MAC, and had never been ranked... into a power. Whereas Herman is winning at the school that should win his conference ever year.

It's my understanding that Fleck has some personal issues though. There are rumors (not sure if they are true) that he is a serial philanderer, and I doubt (though I could be wrong) that ND would be thrilled hiring a guy who's on his second wife by the age of 35. We both know how much ND is concerned with image.
 

NDohio

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Excellent post. Needless to say, all of this talk about Herman is moot given that:
1) Kelly will be back next year
2) nobody knows if Herman would even be interested in the ND job (other programs may be a better fit for him)

I, for one, would like to see more than two seasons at Houston before seriously considering Herman.

Yes.

My reservation for hiring Herman is that he is simply a continuation of Brian Kelly.
 
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koonja

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Tom Herman has more big wins in Thursdays at a sub division team than BK does in 7 years. Herman would be 1000 times better than BK.
 

NDohio

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Tom Herman has more big wins in Thursdays at a sub division team than BK does in 7 years. Herman would be 1000 times better than BK.

Sorry I have a reservation of him being the coach at ND(thank goodness he won't be). I hadn't seen that you had spoken in absolute terms that he would be so good. I stand corrected...
 
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koonja

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Sorry I have a reservation of him being the coach at ND(thank goodness he won't be). I hadn't seen that you had spoken in absolute terms that he would be so good. I stand corrected...

I have reservations of BK being the coach at ND. Like 4-8 reservations with a soft team.
 

NDohio

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I have reservations of BK being the coach at ND. Like 4-8 reservations with a soft team.

Interesting. So you think that the fact that I don't want Herman here because I think he is a continuation of what we currently have means I want to keep what we currently have?
 
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koonja

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Interesting. So you think that the fact that I don't want Herman here because I think he is a continuation of what we currently have means I want to keep what we currently have?

No. Didn't Mean to come off that way and make it seem it was an either or. Herman is young, has HC experience, and to me has proven he will over achieve and can stand his ground in big games. I'd happily take him at ND.
 

gkIrish

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I'm not interested in the coach du jour. I'm not looking for a coach that can improve from 8-5 to 9-4 AT NOTRE DAME, like you apparently are. Spare me the Herman spin. He's played Sagarin's 88 Toughest Schedule and tonight he beat a team whose success came against the 80th Toughest Schedule. The only teams in the Top 25 with softer schedules than UH and UL are WMU, 105th, and SDS, 126th.

You have not been paying attention if you think I am looking for a coach that will improve our record to 9-4.
 

gkIrish

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Interesting. So you think that the fact that I don't want Herman here because I think he is a continuation of what we currently have means I want to keep what we currently have?

What do you mean by "a continuation of what we currently have" ?
 

gkIrish

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Do you guys want to guess how many top 10 teams Brian Kelly beat at Cincinnati?
 
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