Week Seven Prediction Poll (ND @ scUM)

[zelezo vlk]

I think this is about the time of the 2016 season where PSU's offense (what Gattis runs) really started clicking. Just an FYI

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Michigan may have a slight edge in talent, but they had a huge edge in talent against Army, Wiscy and slight edge against Penn State, and that didn't work out so well, unless you consider beating Army in OT at home a great success.

ND hasn't been spectacular this year but they look like a team that isn't going to beat themselves - they commit very few penalties/turnovers and play assignment ball on defense. Michigan isn't going to win this game relying on a slight talent advantage and ND making a crucial mistake on the road. They've done nothing this year to suggest they'll come out with their hair on fire, play a clean game and simply out-execute ND to win this game.

I admit, they did look better against PSU. However, they still managed to beat themselves. Pattycakes tossed a pic that PSU turned into a TD and then their receiver dropped a gimme TD to tie the game. It was pure Michigan.

I think this will be an evenly matched close game that can go either way. Based on what I've seen from both teams - ND plays clean, Michigan shits their pants a couple times, and ND wins by a FG or less. Call it 21-20.

EDIT: This isn't a direct challenge @ you, WB, just quoting you for my first question/point. The rest is just general observations throughout the week.

Other than WR, where is this so called talent advantage? Even given their depth at the position, I'd take Claypool over any of their "big 3" in DPJ, Black and Nico.

What about coaching staff advantages? I'd take Lea over Brown all day. Brown may dominate lesser opponents better/more consistently than ND does but Lea also hasn't gotten boat raced against any opponent either, with the longest 30 pts or less streak in the country now at 20. And don't even get me started on BK vs. Harboner. And simply put, I'd take Long over a rookie OC/playcaller.

Do people forget that PSU laid the lumber on scUM in the first half, then basically went 2018 ND vs. scUM in the second half? This was a tale of two halves in that game. People talk like they beat PSU. Last time I checked they got flat outplayed in the first half and PSU did enough to hold on with a conservative approach on both sides.

We are going to come out more motivated because we still have a season to play for. Theirs is essentially over. Jump out early and it could potentially get ugly by halftime a la PSU.

Why is our fricken fan base so scared of the Wolverines? Untuck your tails and GTFU. You don't have to be a slappy, but stop acting so defeatist in the process.

We are the better team and the only thing they have going for them is the home field advantage and maybe the refs, which a solid performance from a solid ND squad with a ton of fight within, which they've proven this season, can overcome. ND can and will win a hard fought game Saturday.

 

[koonja]

Other than WR, where is this so called talent advantage? Even given their depth at the position, I'd take Claypool over any of their "big 3" in DPJ, Black and Nico.

What about coaching staff advantages? I'd take Lea over Brown all day. Brown may dominate lesser opponents better/more consistently than ND does but Lea also hasn't gotten boat raced against any opponent either, with the longest 30 pts or less streak in the country now at 20. And don't even get me started on BK vs. Harboner. And simply put, I'd take Long over a rookie OC/playcaller.

Do people forget that PSU laid the lumber on scUM in the first half, then basically went 2018 ND vs. scUM in the second half? This was a tale of two halves in that game. People talk like they beat PSU. Last time I checked they got flat outplayed in the first half and PSU did enough to hold on with a conservative approach on both sides.

We are going to come out more motivated because we still have a season to play for. Theirs is essentially over. Jump out early and it could potentially get ugly by halftime a la PSU.

Why is our fricken fan base so scared of the Wolverines? Untuck your tails and GTFU. You don't have to be a slappy, but stop acting so defeatist in the process.

We are the better team and the only thing they have going for them is the home field advantage and maybe the refs, which a solid performance from a solid ND squad with a ton of fight withing can overcome. ND can and will win a hard fought game Saturday.

The score matters so I won't pretend it doesn't.

But ignore that for a second. Do you think this ND team would go into PSU and have 26 1st downs to their 14, 418 yards to their 283, and dominate the TOP 38 to 22?

I don't think ND is capable of that @PSU, and Michigan just did that. That gives me concern.

 

[ACamp1900]

The score matters so I won't pretend it doesn't.

But ignore that for a second. Do you think this ND team would go into PSU and have 26 1st downs to their 14, 418 yards to their 283, and dominate the TOP 38 to 22?

I don't think ND is capable of that @PSU, and Michigan just did that. That gives me concern.

Yes, I think we are totally capable of going into a totally overrated PSU's house and dominating and winning... just being real.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Yes, I think we are totally capable of going into a totally overrated PSU's house and dominating and winning... just being real.

Serious question: does PSU have any position groups better than ND? Maybe linebackers?

 

[ThePiombino]

The score matters so I won't pretend it doesn't.

But ignore that for a second. Do you think this ND team would go into PSU and have 26 1st downs to their 14, 418 yards to their 283, and dominate the TOP 38 to 22?

I don't think ND is capable of that @PSU, and Michigan just did that. That gives me concern.

Look, I agree that this is not going to be an easy game and that we may actually be against the 8ball here; HOWEVER, put the above into perspective. PSU was playing with a lead -- a large lead most of the game -- so they didn't really need to be as aggressive on offense and A LOT of UM's stats were 2nd half desperation mode. They couldn't possibly be expected to sustain at that rate against a defense as solid as ours.

Also, one other observation I would like to point out from the PSU/UM game -- and maybe I'm completely wrong because I didn't see anyone else mention this -- but it appeared to me that Patterson was not only going to his 1st read more times than not, but he was SERIOUSLY STARING THEM DOWN. Like egregiously staring them down.

I just don't think the 2nd half of that game should be much of an indication of what's going to happen this Saturday. I think the one thing that sucks is that it probably gave their offense a little confidence and we all know a little confidence can go a long way, but again -- as others have stated -- I have more faith in Lea than in UM's ability to be consistently good on offense.

My biggest concern is the offense -- mainly Long and Book. I don't have faith in either of them to get out of their own way. Really hoping Armstrong is back and healthy becuase God knows he came through BIG TIME last year with two TDs. Could use him in the passing game out of the backfield this year to counter the blitz. Also hoping we utilize Lenzy and Keys a little more than the past couple big games.

 

[koonja]

Look, I agree that this is not going to be an easy game and that we may actually be against the 8ball here; HOWEVER, put the above into perspective. PSU was playing with a lead -- a large lead most of the game -- so they didn't really need to be as aggressive on offense and A LOT of UM's stats were 2nd half desperation mode. They couldn't possibly be expected to sustain at that rate against a defense as solid as ours.

Also, one other observation I would like to point out from the PSU/UM game -- and maybe I'm completely wrong because I didn't see anyone else mention this -- but it appeared to me that Patterson was not only going to his 1st read more times than not, but he was SERIOUSLY STARING THEM DOWN. Like egregiously staring them down.

I just don't think the 2nd half of that game should be much of an indication of what's going to happen this Saturday. I think the one thing that sucks is that it probably gave their offense a little confidence and we all know a little confidence can go a long way, but again -- as others have stated -- I have more faith in Lea than in UM's ability to be consistently good on offense.

My biggest concern is the offense -- mainly Long and Book. I don't have faith in either of them to get out of their own way. Really hoping Armstrong is back and healthy becuase God knows he came through BIG TIME last year with two TDs. Could use him in the passing game out of the backfield this year to counter the blitz. Also hoping we utilize Lenzy and Keys a little more than the past couple big games.

This is a very reasonable post and if I can shake the "hold me I'm Irish" feeling, this is how I'd look at the game going into it.

 

[ThePiombino]

This is a very reasonable post and if I can shake the "hold me I'm Irish" feeling, this is how I'd look at the game going into it.

I get it. PTSD from the past 25 years of Notre Dame football will do that to a person.

 

[IrishLax]

Look, I agree that this is not going to be an easy game and that we may actually be against the 8ball here; HOWEVER, put the above into perspective. PSU was playing with a lead -- a large lead most of the game -- so they didn't really need to be as aggressive on offense and A LOT of UM's stats were 2nd half desperation mode. They couldn't possibly be expected to sustain at that rate against a defense as solid as ours.

Also, one other observation I would like to point out from the PSU/UM game -- and maybe I'm completely wrong because I didn't see anyone else mention this -- but it appeared to me that Patterson was not only going to his 1st read more times than not, but he was SERIOUSLY STARING THEM DOWN. Like egregiously staring them down.

I just don't think the 2nd half of that game should be much of an indication of what's going to happen this Saturday. I think the one thing that sucks is that it probably gave their offense a little confidence and we all know a little confidence can go a long way, but again -- as others have stated -- I have more faith in Lea than in UM's ability to be consistently good on offense.

My biggest concern is the offense -- mainly Long and Book. I don't have faith in either of them to get out of their own way. Really hoping Armstrong is back and healthy becuase God knows he came through BIG TIME last year with two TDs. Could use him in the passing game out of the backfield this year to counter the blitz. Also hoping we utilize Lenzy and Keys a little more than the past couple big games.

Yes, most of their successful second half offense was single read stuff where he got the snap, stared at his receiver, and then delivered the ball. I just want someone to explain to me why they think that won't work against Notre Dame. Our corners have not played well this year, and everything single Michigan WR will be favored in their 1v1 matchup at all times.

 

[Luckylucci]

Yes, most of their successful second half offense was single read stuff where he got the snap, stared at his receiver, and then delivered the ball. I just want someone to explain to me why they think that won't work against Notre Dame. Our corners have not played well this year, and everything single Michigan WR will be favored in their 1v1 matchup at all times.

Why do they have to be in 1 on 1's? Amon-Ra is what really stressed the defense inside out. You can cover outside like we did against USC without having to worry as much about Amon-Ra in the slot. Also, I don't think we'll drop our LB's nearly as deep and/or be as passive with our front. I get the second half defense gave people a bad taste but you can run that backend coverage without being as passive upfront. Which is what most agree we should've done more of. I think you'll see that this week.

 

[Wild Bill]

Serious question: does PSU have any position groups better than ND? Maybe linebackers?

I'm not sure they have a better position group. Maybe LBers or the interior of the defensive line. Hamler is a difference maker that ND simply doesn't have, and was the difference in the game against Michigan. I'm not so sure I'd swap receivers with PSU, but they have Hamler and we do not.

EDIT: This isn't a direct challenge @ you, WB, just quoting you for my first question/point. The rest is just general observations throughout the week.

Other than WR, where is this so called talent advantage? Even given their depth at the position, I'd take Claypool over any of their "big 3" in DPJ, Black and Nico.

I think they're pretty even or ND has a slight talent advantage, but I think you can reasonably believe Michigan is a slightly more talented team, especially on paper (as if that means somethign).

QB - Patterson has more talent than Book but I'd take Book over him all day. Some may disagree.

RB - Charbonnet is more talented than any of our backs but he's young and inexperienced. TJ is a solid back with a ton of experience. I'd probably take TJ but I don't think it's crazy to believe Charbonnet would put up better numbers than TJ with our Oline.

OL - I'll take ND's line.

Receivers - Claypool may be the best receiver on the field but overall I'd say Michigan has a slight advantage. They have four guys with above average talent and potential to make a big play. We have Claypool and a bunch of guys that have played average, at best.

Tight End - I'll take ND

Just lump in the front 7 - I think it's close. Not sure who has more talent

Secondary - I'd give a slight advantage to ND, especially if Crawford is playing.

What about coaching staff advantages? I'd take Lea over Brown all day. Brown may dominate lesser opponents better/more consistently than ND does but Lea also hasn't gotten boat raced against any opponent either, with the longest 30 pts or less streak in the country now at 20. And don't even get me started on BK vs. Harboner. And simply put, I'd take Long over a rookie OC/playcaller.

Based on the performaces thus far, ND staff is better. ND is more prepared, plays with discipline, plays relatively mistake free and ND staff gets more with the roster than Michigan.

 

[Irish#1]

Yes, most of their successful second half offense was single read stuff where he got the snap, stared at his receiver, and then delivered the ball. I just want someone to explain to me why they think that won't work against Notre Dame. Our corners have not played well this year, and everything single Michigan WR will be favored in their 1v1 matchup at all times.

Not picking on you, but it seems most of these type posts are based on the idea that Lea is going to employee the same defense that he did against USC. I don't think that's going to happen. Keep in mind that if Lea does employee this defense, he's had time to analyze and make some corrections/adjustments.

 

[Armyirish47]

Not picking on you, but it seems most of these type posts are based on the idea that Lea is going to employee the same defense that he did against USC. I don't think that's going to happen. Keep in mind that if Lea does employee this defense, he's had time to analyze and make some corrections/adjustments.

I can't remember which podcast I listened to yesterday but they made it pretty clear that ND worked on a USC package for about a month.

 

[IrishLax]

Not picking on you, but it seems most of these type posts are based on the idea that Lea is going to employee the same defense that he did against USC. I don't think that's going to happen. Keep in mind that if Lea does employee this defense, he's had time to analyze and make some corrections/adjustments.

What I'm talking about is the opposite. We saw against UVA and Georgia what happens when our DBs are left 1v1 with players that are better than them. Against USC we mostly played zone.

 

[Luckylucci]

What I'm talking about is the opposite. We saw against UVA and Georgia what happens when our DBs are left 1v1 with players that are better than them. Against USC we mostly played zone.

I think in theory you could still run Cover 2 over top with man underneath to take away those big plays while being more aggressive upfront.

Not saying you but I think what some are missing is the first half was a very reasonable game plan. We did some of the above while also mixing in zone pressures and drops. The second half was a majority of actual prevent defense using number of possible possessions and lead to our advantage. Cover 2/2 deep S's doesn't mean we have to rush 3 and 4 as much as we did. Or that we need to have our LB's in bail technique. That's where we overreacted, IMO.

 

[ThePiombino]

I think in theory you could still run Cover 2 over top with man underneath to take away those big plays while being more aggressive upfront.

Not saying you but I think what some are missing is the first half was a very reasonable game plan. We did some of the above while also mixing in zone pressures and drops. The second half was a majority of actual prevent defense using number of possible possessions and lead to our advantage. Cover 2/2 deep S's doesn't mean we have to rush 3 and 4 as much as we did. Or that we need to have our LB's in bail technique. That's where we overreacted, IMO.

I believe this to be a fair assessment.

 

[T Town Tommy]

What I'm talking about is the opposite. We saw against UVA and Georgia what happens when our DBs are left 1v1 with players that are better than them. Against USC we mostly played zone.

My opinion is that there are some out here that are downplaying the Michigan WR's. They are a much, much better position group than either Ga or Va. Whether Patterson can get the ball to them consistently is a whole other story. But make no mistake, they are better than the Irish secondary who will be covering them. Let's hope the front seven get home enough to disrupt Patterson.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I think in theory you could still run Cover 2 over top with man underneath to take away those big plays while being more aggressive upfront.

Not saying you but I think what some are missing is the first half was a very reasonable game plan. We did some of the above while also mixing in zone pressures and drops. The second half was a majority of actual prevent defense using number of possible possessions and lead to our advantage. Cover 2/2 deep S's doesn't mean we have to rush 3 and 4 as much as we did. Or that we need to have our LB's in bail technique. That's where we overreacted, IMO.

If you run cover 2 over the top, you better hope the LB's can cover in space. That could get a bit tricky IMO, especially if you're not getting enough pressure on the QB.

 

[ThePiombino]

If you run cover 2 over the top, you better hope the LB's can cover in space. That could get a bit tricky IMO, especially if you're not getting enough pressure on the QB.

JOK sure as shit can.

 

[T Town Tommy]

JOK sure as shit can.

LoL....I do think the biggest advantage for the Irish is Lea vs. Gattis. I don't believe there is a bigger gap on or off the field.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

If you run cover 2 over the top, you better hope the LB's can cover in space. That could get a bit tricky IMO, especially if you're not getting enough pressure on the QB.

ND's personnel is actually fairly well suited to try the old Tampa 2. Gilman can definitely handle a gap assignment, JOK can handle the slot and Bilal is decent in coverage. You'd probably have to bench White, though.

 

[T Town Tommy]

ND's personnel is actually fairly well suited to try the old Tampa 2. Gilman can definitely handle a gap assignment, JOK can handle the slot and Bilal is decent in coverage. You'd probably have to bench White, though.

For this to work the DL must get home however. Patterson isn't great but you can't let him sit back there either. His career has been defined by mistakes due to pressure. Anyways, I am not too worried about Lea and his game plan. I am confident he makes Gattis work for every inch he gets.

 

[Irish#1]

from 247.....In reference to scUM passing like USC.

From BK......"“This one requires, from our perspective, less of a change to our structure than it did preparing for USC. "

"You can’t give up 50-50 balls (to Michigan),” said Kelly, “so how do you turn that factor into your favor? You have to play some zone coverage. You’ve got to take away the high percentage 50-50 balls because of their size."

"A variety of coverages will be key against the Wolverines.”


Expect the look that Patterson gets to change a lot to keep him guessing which will result in him either pulling it down and running or hanging on to the ball a little longer giving our rush the edge. The D sacked him three times last year. You know he's aware of that.

 

[Luckylucci]

If you run cover 2 over the top, you better hope the LB's can cover in space. That could get a bit tricky IMO, especially if you're not getting enough pressure on the QB.

Obviously there is a lot that goes into it like matching up personnel, down and distance etc, but I guess the greater takeaway is, I'd be shocked if the staff isn't more multiple for this game than they were in the second half versus USC.

 

[Wild Bill]

Yes, most of their successful second half offense was single read stuff where he got the snap, stared at his receiver, and then delivered the ball. I just want someone to explain to me why they think that won't work against Notre Dame. Our corners have not played well this year, and everything single Michigan WR will be favored in their 1v1 matchup at all times.

I thought Slovis did a good job of looking off some coverages, going through his progressions and finding the open receiver against ND. Better than I would have predicted for a freshman. I agree, he went to the first man a few times but most of those decisions were correct - like the TD throw to St Brown over the middle (he caught ND safety stepping up off the play action) and Vaughn TD (he was singled and he gave his receiver a shot). Patterson has the ability to do the same but I've never seen him as patient as Slovis was against ND.

Crawford is back. Assuming he's healthy, that's an upgrade from what ND had against USC. Michigan's receivers are really good and are all capable of winning one on one matchups but they are not as talented as USC trio, IMO. Would a single Michigan receiver start at USC over Pittman, Vaughn or St Brown? I don't think they would but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[ThePiombino]

I thought Slovis did a good job of looking off some coverages, going through his progressions and finding the open receiver against ND. Better than I would have predicted for a freshman. I agree, he went to the first man a few times but most of those decisions were correct - like the TD throw to St Brown over the middle (he caught ND safety stepping up off the play action) and Vaughn TD (he was singled and he gave his receiver a shot). Patterson has the ability to do the same but I've never seen him as patient as Slovis was against ND.

Crawford is back. Assuming he's healthy, that's an upgrade from what ND had against USC. Michigan's receivers are really good and are all capable of winning one on one matchups but they are not as talented as USC trio, IMO. Would a single Michigan receiver start at USC over Pittman, Vaughn or St Brown? I don't think they would but maybe I'm wrong.

I wouldn't expect to see him in much more than 3rd and longs, basically anything that doesn't require run support.

 

[koonja]

I'm setting the O/U for Crawford at 12 plays. BK is always overly optimistic about injuries, but even he pulled back at the end. "We think he can help us in certain scenarios".

 

[Irish#1]

I'm setting the O/U for Crawford at 12 plays. BK is always overly optimistic about injuries, but even he pulled back at the end. "We think he can help us in certain scenarios".

Kmet played full time against UGA.

 

[irishtrooper]

I'm setting the O/U for Crawford at 12 plays. BK is always overly optimistic about injuries, but even he pulled back at the end. "We think he can help us in certain scenarios".

It’s probably a tolerance thing. This isn’t a soft tissue lower body injury that you risk long term risk as much coming back to early. I bet it’ll be braced up and Crawford plays quite a bit. Add Vaughn to the mix and I really feel pretty good about the secondary.

 

[greyhammer90]

Literally the only reason we should lose this game is because I'm accustomed to being hurt. ND by 9. Our offense doesn't play great, but like last year they just can't score and despite the close score it becomes obvious that Michigan doesn't have the horses to pull out a win.