Do you remember in early 2016 when Tom Herman was the next "can't miss" hire because he was winning at Houston? He barely made it four years at Texas. I could easily see Aranda's career having a similar trajectory.
Lots of guys can do Xs and Os and kiss teenage ass on the recruiting trail, but very few can build and maintain a healthy culture. That's why it's so hard to win at dysfunctional blue bloods like UT and USC. Odds are good that whoever they get is gonna fail.
One thing that I think might separate Aranda is that he has a real awareness about him that many coaches lack. I've followed Baylor a bit because their QB played locally, and I thought this article from last summer was pretty insightful.
https://www.texasfootball.com/artic...the-wide-zone-offense?ref=article_preview_img
From the article, "Aranda coached in the Big Ten and SEC before arriving at Baylor, and found that each conference has its own personality. The Big Ten was filled with bulky developmental gap-fillers. The SEC was built around plug-and-play defensive linemen who needed the game simplified to play as freshmen.
In the Big 12, on the other hand, players tend to sacrifice developmental bulk in exchange for quickness. Defensive linemen play more in the 270-pound range than past 300, which creates opportunities for stunts and twists to create havoc against inside zone and man blocking schemes. "
The whole point was he saw he needed to go a different direction with the offense tailored to what would make his program successful as opposed to sticking with what he saw win at LSU and bingo bango turnaround time. Can he replicate this at a blue blood? I don't know but I'd be more inclined to give him a chance than many one year wonder types because of that experience.