I think both the Pac12 and remaining Big12 are cooked. I think people are underestimating the role ESPN is implicitly or explicitly playing here. Here are the facts....
- ESPN has lost ~10 million subscribers over the last 5 years....you think it's a coincidence many of the bigger name people have left?
- ESPN just spent hundreds of millions (reportedly $300M annually) to secure SEC game of the week media rights, not including the investment in the SEC network. Plain and simple, ESPN is "all in" on SEC as their overall top-line fees diminish, yet they are allocated more.
- Big Ten TV rights expire in 2023, one year before Pac 12 and 2 years before the Big 12
- There is no "anchor" left in the Big 12 and the Pac 12 Network has been a massive disappointment and is also losing subscribers annually. The Pac 12 is getting far less exposure (not a coincidence they have receded respect nationally) and the amount of cashflow to sink into programs is limited for most of their programs.
- NIL is likely to be tied to exposure and SEC currently has a leg up and that will certainly
- ND contract with NBC is up in 2025
Once UT/OU are gone, what value does the rest of the league bring? You think people are going to tune and watch Okie State play Kansas versus watching Auburn versus Oklahoma? Likewise, the Pac 12 has awful timing and will be picking up the scraps. Their own regional and "national" PAC12 network is about to be downsized or bailed on all together. If you are USC / Oregon and to a lesser extent, UW, you have to wonder if your football program can compete long term within the Pac 12.
The ACC isn't in a good spot either, really. Their TV deal is widely known as one of the worst and significantly lags both the Big 10 and the SEC. In 2020 FY, ACC had the lowest distribution to teams of the P5. So if you are, say, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, etc. you are looking over your shoulder and wondering if you can survive until 2036 when all the other schools in region have significantly more resources (hint, nope). Something major needs to happen with the ACC or they will end up like Big 12.
Big 10 meanwhile, is sitting in a nice spot all things considered. Their payouts are strong and the Big10 network remains viable. But, the gap to the SEC has shrunk financially and will continue to do so when Texas and OU join while the product on the field worsens as well from a conference standpoint. Ohio State has to be looking at the rest of the league and wondering if their perch at the top alongside Alabama is sustainable long term. They have picked off quite a bit of talent from Texas and the UT/OU news figures to make it harder to maintain that pipeline.
Who know where this goes next, but I have this suspicion that something else is afoot but ND is the piece to make it work. Here are some wild ideas to consider...
1) ND / ACC / Big 10 Merger - Very unlikely, but this could be the end point many years from now so just go it now?
2) ACC / Big Ten / ND announce a new arrangement for some wort of ACC / Big 10 challenge each year with exclusive rights from one provider
3) We see bigger schools test the independence waters (USC?) and wait out the inevitable 40-50 team super league that breaks from the NCAA
4) ND partners with a few select schools (additional independents?) to strike a richer TV rights deal with Amazon or Apple, aided in part by enhanced NIL for the players and guaranteed scheduling.
5) Clemson/FSU/Miami bails on the ACC and it dissolves, forcing ND into the Big 10 or SEC (most likely SEC).
I have this nagging feeling that Clemson is going to jettison out of the ACC and ND is going to have a really hard decision to make,