Superconferences & Realignment

[BobbyMac]

I could see Texas in the PAC 12 and I don't think the pac wants sdsu. But I could see the pac 12 going after UNLV and someone else. UNLV is on the verge of making a deal with the Raiders to build a big stadium on UNLV's campus to share and they are building a new medical school to help with qualifying to join the PAC 12

The PAC doesn't want SDSU until they need teams in large markets. UNLV would be on the list too. The only reason this thread exists is because conferences are expanding into new markets with lots of TV's.

If Texas heads to the B1G, I'd like to see ND bite the bullet and join the B1G as well. They could be in the western/weaker half of the conference and compete for a spot in a conference championship every year.

Every year, you'd (in a perfect world) see Texas/ND squaring off with OSU/scUM/Sparty in the B1G 'chip. You could throw Oklahoma in there if they decide to follow Tejas.

(I realize that it's blasphemous to discuss ND to the B1G, and ND likely is locked into the ACC if more change happens, but that's just my preference in terms of ND having a shot at the playoffs every year.)

Oklahoma will never be in the B1G. They don't qualify and have the even crappier school in Stillwater tied to their hip by law I believe. If you would be happy that ND was in a bad B1G - West just imagine how happy you'd be with the Irish in an even worse ACC - North while Clemson, FSU, Miami & Va Tech battle each other for the right to play ND in the conference championship.

 

[calvegas04]

The PAC doesn't want SDSU until they need teams in large markets. UNLV would be on the list too. The only reason this thread exists is because conferences are expanding into new markets with lots of TV's.

The reason I don't think they would invite sdsu is because the pac 12 already has the San Diego market and they can add 2 new teams that would be new markets.

 

[BobbyMac]

The reason I don't think they would invite sdsu is because the pac 12 already has the San Diego market and they can add 2 new teams that would be new markets.

In that thinking, the PAC already has Vegas & Boise too. Having a team in the city is different when it comes to the value of TV contracts and what it can charge advertisers.

 

[ulukinatme]

Yeah, money is nice, but we don't really need money that bad. Maryland needs the B1G $$$, we don't. I say if we get forced down that path, full member of the ACC (And we have to anyway I believe, according to the deal) is the way to go. Florida State and Clemson are the biggest road blocks to winning the ACC. While the B1G isn't that different, since they only has 2-3 really competitive teams at most in any given year as well, they have teams that thrive as spoilers against us like Purdue. Nothing worse than a nail biter against a team that is jazzed about playing you...and you don't care because they're Purdue. BC is the only team really in the ACC that consistently is annoying and shouldn't be.

 

[dublinirish]

Idaho dropping down to FCS apparently. Was in the works for a while I'd say

 

[NorthDakota]

Idaho dropping down to FCS apparently. Was in the works for a while I'd say

I'm surprised they are even keeping football. Once you've been to the top, JV ball has got to seem second class.

 

[pumpdog20]

I think it would be harder to make the playoffs being in the B1G than it would the ACC. But I'm still all in for the B1G, always have been.

 

[phork]

After all the butt hurt Michigan people (and to a lesser extent BIG people in general) whined about NDs "preferential" treatment and how ND turned them down "so stop playing them and they won't have games to fill their calendar"... I say F the BIG.

 

[dales5050]

I'm intrigued of being with TX and/or OK, but think I still prefer the ACC. Sexier. Southeast. Talent pool. And I'm in the ATL....

My take on it is IF you go to 4 conferences at 16 teams the money will be there for all 4 conferences. Parity in payment will eventually happen so money does not really matter if you look at it over 20 or 40 years.

Based on this, I think ND would stay in the ACC rather than jump to the Big10 for all of the reasons they have the partnership now.

If ND joins the Big10 you're going to anchor your recruiting down to the Mid-West and that's not as good as the South and East Coast that the ACC provides.

If ND joins the Big10 you're going to see them smash heads with Michigan and Ohio State over almost everything. In the ACC, ND would not have similar issues. It would be THE program.

And I'm in Charlotte.....

 

[BobbyMac]

You guys need to stop thinking 64 teams. That's not going to happen. There are 64 P5 teams already without ND. Large market teams like Temple, Houston, UNLV, SDSU, UCinn are not going to be left out.

You'll see 20 team conferences with UTSA included before you see 64.

 

[dales5050]

You guys need to stop thinking 64 teams. That's not going to happen. There are 64 P5 teams already without ND. Large market teams like Temple, Houston, UNLV, SDSU, UCinn are not going to be left out.

You'll see 20 team conferences with UTSA included before you see 64.

Sorry but I disagree.

The money for the Superconferences would come from about 15 to 25 teams. Just like now when ESPN pays for a conference like the SEC...they are buying rights to Bama not Vanderbilt or Kentucky.

Just how do you think UCinn or SDSU would force their way in? They don't have any real power compared to the Blue Bloods. That's the product.

 

[IrishLion]

I've gotta stop the UCinn thing.

Cincy or UC. UCinn is too close to UConn for comfort.

 

[phork]

You guys need to stop thinking 64 teams. That's not going to happen. There are 64 P5 teams already without ND. Large market teams like Temple, Houston, UNLV, SDSU, UCinn are not going to be left out.

You'll see 20 team conferences with UTSA included before you see 64.

They'll be left out. Because they offer nothing. No money, little history. I can see a future where they try and hash out which teams would make the 64 and if the task gets too tedious you'll see the NDs, UMs, OSUs, Floridas, Bamas all pull out and do it their own way. They have absolutely zero leverage.

 

[BobbyMac]

Sorry but I disagree.

The money for the Superconferences would come from about 15 to 25 teams. Just like now when ESPN pays for a conference like the SEC...they are buying rights to Bama not Vanderbilt or Kentucky.

Just how do you think UCinn or SDSU would force their way in? They don't have any real power compared to the Blue Bloods. That's the product.

TV pays for markets and viewership. Conferences collect markets/viewership in a portfolio to sell. Did Maryland and Rutgers force their way into the B1G or were they absorbed for market penetration and TV's? I can tell you right now the #4 and #5 largest cities in America, Houston and Philly, will each have a team in any radically different conference format.

 

[NorthDakota]

TV pays for markets and viewership. Conferences collect markets/viewership in a portfolio to sell. Did Maryland and Rutgers force their way into the B1G or were they absorbed for market penetration and TV's? I can tell you right now the #4 and #5 largest cities in America, Houston and Philly, will each have a team in any radically different conference format.

Who has more fans in Houston? The Cougs or the Horns/Aggies?

Maryland and Rutgers are the teams people follow in those areas, aren't they?

 

[dales5050]

TV pays for markets and viewership. Conferences collect markets/viewership in a portfolio to sell. Did Maryland and Rutgers force their way into the B1G or were they absorbed for market penetration and TV's? I can tell you right now the #4 and #5 largest cities in America, Houston and Philly, will each have a team in any radically different conference format.

It's really markets or viewership.

Tuscaloosa and South Bend are not major markets but Bama and ND have viewership.

My point is IF superconferences happen the divide between the top 64 and outside schools is going to become so big that people in markets like Philly or Houston will simply find a P64 school the follow. It's not like people in Philly or Houston are going to give up CFB if they don't have a P64 school.

 

[BobbyMac]

They'll be left out. Because they offer nothing. No money, little history. I can see a future where they try and hash out which teams would make the 64 and if the task gets too tedious you'll see the NDs, UMs, OSUs, Floridas, Bamas all pull out and do it their own way. They have absolutely zero leverage.

1. They do offer money. Take for example Temple, if they were to join the ACC, the ACC then includes the #5 city in America and it's regional viewership of E. Pa and Jersey cutting into the B1G's numbers. That is huge. Temple in the ACC is a done deal at some point.

2. Houston doesn't offer as much of a grab for the SEC or the Big 12 at the moment because they both have regional powers nearby but if/when the Big 12 dissolves with Texas' departure and the PAC comes to Texas to grab teams... Houston and TCU are first on the list because of huge markets. The SEC will be calling on them too.

3. The idea of a top 32 or so leaving and doing their own thing is often kicked around but it won't happen. It would leave too may markets to share with the new second class division. The idea is to grow and eliminate competition, not get smaller and create it. For example, if Texas and A&M are the only two programs from Texas in the new smaller elite conference, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU Baylor, Tech & UTSA are going to have a lot of money to share as they cover every large market except Austin.

Who has more fans in Houston? The Cougs or the Horns/Aggies?

Maryland and Rutgers are the teams people follow in those areas, aren't they?

What if the PAC goes after Houston along with TCU? The PAC has now doubled it's presence in Top 10 markets with a footprint in 4 of them and diluted the SEC's negotiating strength in SE Texas.

 

[BobbyMac]

It's really markets or viewership.

Tuscaloosa and South Bend are not major markets but Bama and ND have viewership.

My point is IF superconferences happen the divide between the top 64 and outside schools is going to become so big that people in markets like Philly or Houston will simply find a P64 school the follow. It's not like people in Philly or Houston are going to give up CFB if they don't have a P64 school.

I'm sorry but that's just not how it works. Markets matter. Footprint matters. Viewership matter. When Temple joins the ACC, it will have a longterm negative effect on PSU football market strength. That is a fact even if Temple sucks.

Anyways, If it goes to four 16 team conferences... who does ND replace? Does Wake get kicked out?

 

[dales5050]

I'm sorry but that's just not how it works. Markets matter. Footprint matters. Viewership matter. When Temple joins the ACC, it will have a longterm negative effect on PSU football market strength. That is a fact even if Temple sucks.

Sorry. I just don't agree. Charlotte is the 24th largest market. No big team here. Portland is 22. Orlando is 19. Tampa is is 13.

Each of these markets are 'covered' by teams that are hours away. Philly and Houston will be covered by other teams. This is not the NFL, where your view would be 100% accurate. It's college football.

All ESPN or the networks are going to care about is people watching games. They will be able to sell to Philly or Houston without an issue.

Anyways, If it goes to four 16 team conferences... who does ND replace? Does Wake get kicked out?

Why would Wake get kicked out of a 14 team ACC if ND joined?

As for who would be kicked out of the 64..I don't know. Maybe Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky or Vanderbilt. It's not like the 'we play basketball card' would matter here.

I am looking at this over a 50 year window. Not based on what programs are right now. Part of the reason why I don't take Temple serious. They have been 'OK' for a heartbeat.

Put it this way, if we were having this conversation in the early 80s people would say how can you even think of leaving out SMU or BYU. But CFB moves on, adjusts and that's what would happen with any shift.

 

[BobbyMac]

Sorry. I just don't agree. Charlotte is the 24th largest market. No big team here. Portland is 22. Orlando is 19. Tampa is is 13.

Each of these markets are 'covered' by teams that are hours away. Philly and Houston will be covered by other teams. This is not the NFL, where your view would be 100% accurate. It's college football.

All ESPN or the networks are going to care about is people watching games. They will be able to sell to Philly or Houston without an issue.



Why would Wake get kicked out of a 14 team ACC if ND joined?

As for who would be kicked out of the 64..I don't know. Maybe Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky or Vanderbilt. It's not like the 'we play basketball card' would matter here.

I am looking at this over a 50 year window. Not based on what programs are right now. Part of the reason why I don't take Temple serious. They have been 'OK' for a heartbeat.

Put it this way, if we were having this conversation in the early 80s people would say how can you even think of leaving out SMU or BYU. But CFB moves on, adjusts and that's what would happen with any shift.

I spent 15 years doing market development for one of the big cable companies and have had this conversation a gazillion times with the guys who put together the numbers the conferences and networks use. If you are going to use 50 year thinking you might want to rethink your position regarding Temple's worthlessness in America's #5 market when they have 40,000 students and it's 4 hours away from the flagship school... in a town that already considers itself it's own entity, separate from the state.

 

[Cali_domer]

I spent 15 years doing market development for one of the big cable companies and have had this conversation a gazillion times with the guys who put together the numbers the conferences and networks use. If you are going to use 50 year thinking you might want to rethink your position regarding Temple's worthlessness in America's #5 market when they have 40,000 students and it's 4 hours away from the flagship school... in a town that already considers itself it's own entity, separate from the state.

But the problem is with these networks(BTN, PAC 12, SECN)) they don't need multiple teams in the same state. They get paid an in-state Rate(Bundling) already because PSU is in the conference, I believe it's 90 cents, out of market(Like Texas for Big 10) pays I think .10 (Bundling). Adding Temple would not make that rate go up otherwise everyone would add all the New York teams or Cali Teams. It's about carriage on the Cable and Satellite companies. The Pac 12 is have an absolute nightmare of time because no carriers are picking up the channel.

 

[BobbyMac]

But the problem is with these networks(BTN, PAC 12, SECN)) they don't need multiple teams in the same state. They get paid an in-state Rate(Bundling) already because PSU is in the conference, I believe it's 90 cents, out of market(Like Texas for Big 10) pays I think .10 (Bundling). Adding Temple would not make that rate go up otherwise everyone would add all the New York teams or Cali Teams. It's about carriage on the Cable and Satellite companies. The Pac 12 is have an absolute nightmare of time because no carriers are picking up the channel.

How does this change Temple's value to the ACC in the Philly and E. PA/NJ?

 

[dales5050]

I spent 15 years doing market development for one of the big cable companies and have had this conversation a gazillion times with the guys who put together the numbers the conferences and networks use. If you are going to use 50 year thinking you might want to rethink your position regarding Temple's worthlessness in America's #5 market when they have 40,000 students and it's 4 hours away from the flagship school... in a town that already considers itself it's own entity, separate from the state.

Sure. I'll give you that Temple could be 'made' just like other schools could be forced into the shadows. But that choice would not be made it Temple. It would be based on the power schools deciding who are the haves and have nots.

But you still have not explained how Temple could force their way in. If this was 2005, right before they hired Golden and right after getting booted from the Big East...do you honestly want to claim that at that point in time if Superconferences were being discussed someone would have said...hey you need to do something about Temple because we need the Philly market? 40,000 students and the Philly TV market didn't matter back then.

Just don't buy it.

If the Blue Bloods of CFB sat down with the networks and said...hey we're going to do this with this number of teams...the only thing they would hear is how much do you want. That's my opinion.

 

[Cali_domer]

How does this change Temple's value to the ACC in the Philly and E. PA/NJ?

If a network is carried(if ACC gets one) why would they double up in Pennsylvania? They have Pitt already. Adding Cincy would make sense because they have no team in Ohio.

 

[ND NYC]

which do you think happens first?:
-playoff goes beyond 4 teams or
-"super" conferences are created

 

[BobbyMac]

Sure. I'll give you that Temple could be 'made' just like other schools could be forced into the shadows. But that choice would not be made <by> Temple. It would be based on the power schools deciding who are the haves and have nots.

But you still have not explained how Temple could force their way in. If this was 2005, right before they hired Golden and right after getting booted from the Big East...do you honestly want to claim that at that point in time if Superconferences were being discussed someone would have said...hey you need to do something about Temple because we need the Philly market? 40,000 students and the Philly TV market didn't matter back then.

Just don't buy it.

If the Blue Bloods of CFB sat down with the networks and said...hey we're going to do this with this number of teams...the only thing they would hear is how much do you want. That's my opinion.

I never said Temple has to force it's way in. The prettiest girls don't demand dates. Temple just has to wait for the ACC to come to them. 2005 doesn't matter anymore, the world of college football tv contracts have changed 3x over since. There wasn't even the B1G Network yet which started the empire building by the conferences.

 

[BobbyMac]

If a network is carried(if ACC gets one) why would they double up in Pennsylvania? They have Pitt already. Adding Cincy would make sense because they have no team in Ohio.

It's not as simple as that. There is a difference in formulas per flat state rate and home market vs other distant in state markets in the negotiating process. I will dig up a proposal that outlines the value of Houston to the SEC or PAC and how it would devalue the SEC financial position in SE Texas if they went west.

...and I agree with UC. They belong in the ACC but I also have an article saved on how Cincy is on the SEC's short list of grabs if and when the move to 4 happens.

 

[BobbyMac]

which do you think happens first?:
-playoff goes beyond 4 teams or
-"super" conferences are created

I'd obviously love to see an 8 team playoff but Texas could change it all before that happens.

 

[IrishLion]

which do you think happens first?:
-playoff goes beyond 4 teams or
-"super" conferences are created

I'd bet that superconferences form before the playoff expands.

BUT that also depends on how the playoff shakes out in the next three or four years. If we get a year where 5 Power teams all win their leagues and they each have one loss, the powers that be might see no choice but to go to 6 or 8 with the playoff.

It also depends on if the Big XII expands and how the dominoes fall after that.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Didn't know where else to put this:

http://notredame.247sports.com/Bolt...ng-ACC-would-commence-network-launch-45606945