State of the program

[autry_denson]

Since it’s the true dead period for college football, I thought I’d write down some thoughts about the “state of the program” as I see it. Take it for what it’s worth, which is just one outsider’s view of the major forces affecting the position of the program relative to all others. Most of this is obvious, some of it is likely wrong. But we focus a lot on this site on details about coaches, scholarship numbers, jucos etc. My sense is that all of this is important but it’s really driven by structural conditions that ND faces that often are left unstated.

 

[autry_denson]

My starting point is to identify what I consider to be the major structural forces affecting the program.

Structural disadvantages:
1) Location. The university’s location in South Bend will always be the biggest barrier to perennial contention for national championships. Being in Indiana, geographically removed from the talent in the south and west, in one of the many old, declining former industrial cities of the Midwest is almost impossible to overcome.
2) Race/culture: ND is a largely white institution with a very traditional Catholic culture and distinctly upper-class fan base. This may contribute to the football program’s academic success to a degree, but overall I would speculate that it’s a net negative for recruiting. The student body is passionate about football but represents a foreign social environment for nonwhite athletes, particularly those coming from primarily black neighborhoods. The alumni base is great for networking, not as great for stadium atmosphere.

Structural advantages:
3) Academic success. The biggest comparative advantage is the rank of the university and its business school and the graduation rate of athletes, particularly black athletes. This is the factor that separates ND from virtually every other major college football program, with the exception of Stanford.
4) Passion/tradition. The base of support behind ND football is unmatched by any school except for the huge state schools down south, but ND’s alumni network is better connected across the country. Combine this with the location of the hall of fame, the tradition of winning, the game day pageantry, the resources devoted to the program, and this is a huge advantage.

In my mind, these are the four structural conditions that establish the bounds for the level of success for ND football. There are other important factors that determine where ND falls within these bounds, but these are the factors that constrain everything else.

 

[autry_denson]

Two points to make here. The first is that academic success is, in my mind, the most important advantage that ND has over other schools. It’s not just a principle that the university considers important to its mission, it’s an enormous advantage b/c it allows ND to distinguish itself from other football programs in the Midwest and beyond. Secondly, the academic success of the program depends on getting recruits who will succeed academically. Of course, some marginal students will get through the program with a degree on the basis of the tremendous resources that the university devotes to tutoring and academic assistance. But figures like the graduation rate or Whiskey’s ROI depend primarily on the types of recruits brought into the program. I would argue that ND’s numbers indicating academic success are driven as much or more by selection into ND than by the resources devoted to academic success once athletes are at ND. What this means is that any discussion of lowering standards, accepting juco’s, or reaching for marginal athletes with red flags has to begin with a consideration of how this will affect our rates of academic success. Accepting a juco who has a high probability of failing out is not good for the program, b/c it undermines ND’s hugely important academic advantage.

Secondly, Coach Kelly has done very well with the structural advantages that the program enjoys, recruiting all over the country and convincing kids that ND is a smart decision for the rest of their lives. But he has also pushed against the constraints facing the program by trying to bring in a number of kids who are high risk academically or socially. This has generated tension, resulting in an instability that has become the norm with ND football. Situations like Golson, Daniels, Neal, McKensie, Sheperd, Prestwood, and Lynch are not isolated and unique, but are predictable situations that will continue to arise as long as Kelly continues to push the boundaries of the program.

 

[autry_denson]

Where does this leave the program? In my mind, these structural factors lead to a situation where ND is outside of the small number of elite college football programs but in the next tier of top 20 programs. The very elite programs have a geographic advantage that drives every aspect of the program. As long as there continues to be passion for football in states that produce tremendous talent, like FL, CA, TX, MS, GA, AL, TN, the big programs from these states are going to be the elite of college football. The specific teams at the top will shift around, but you can bet that one of USC/UCLA/CAL will be in the top 10 each year, one of TX/A&M/BAYLOR will be at the top, and so forth.

However, ND has a chance to be at or near the top of the next tier of programs. This means that ND should expect to be in the top 20 consistently, but there will be down years when ND will fall well out of the top 20 and some great years, when ND will be in the top 5. Similarly with recruiting, we should expect to see ND in the top 20 in recruiting each year, with a few years where we are top 5 and a few years where we’re down near 20. This year’s class is an excellent example. Lots of very good players from all over the country but few elite players from the south or west.

The last point is the most important: I think this is the best ND can hope for. If you want to make an argument about how the program can improve, you have to start by considering these 4 structural forces (or other ones that I’ve missed). If you think the program can improve by over-signing, you have to consider whether this is going to undermine the program’s biggest advantage: the ability to tell a recruit that he is on scholarship for four years and is going to graduate. If you want juco’s, you have to be damn sure they’re not going to hurt that graduation rate and it will help if they don’t undermine Whiskey’s ROI calculation.

I think ND is in a very good place. Kelly is a great football coach and an excellent recruiter, and the team is full of high quality players with a few elite players. My sense is that Kelly should continue to take some risky bets in bringing in a few marginal players who have the potential to be elite, but he probably has to scale back a bit. If the number of suspensions and transfers grows, the advantage that ND has in academics starts to fade a bit. Our best bet is to be in the second tier of programs and hope that every few years we get a few special players who bring the team to a higher place.

 

[kmoose]

My starting point is to identify what I consider to be the major structural forces affecting the program.

Structural disadvantages:
1) Location. The university’s location in South Bend will always be the biggest barrier to perennial contention for national championships. Being in Indiana, geographically removed from the talent in the south and west, in one of the many old, declining former industrial cities of the Midwest is almost impossible to overcome.

The numbers don't bear this out. If you look at the recruits that ND has signed, from 2000-2013, 4 of the top 6 states that they have recruited from include the high school football hotbeds of California(1), Florida(2), Ohio(3), and Texas(6). I saw this breakdown on und.com, in their signing day coverage. It's a very interesting breakdown, at the bottom of the page:

Notre Dame Football 2014 Signing Day Central - Presented By American Family Insurance :: UND.COM - University of Notre Dame Official Athletic Site

 

[Whiskeyjack]

If you want juco’s, you have to be damn sure they’re not going to hurt that graduation rate and it will help if they don’t undermine Whiskey’s ROI calculation.

Sadly, it's already affecting ND's outstanding ROI. I'm in the process of updating it now.

 

[autry_denson]

The numbers don't bear this out. If you look at the recruits that ND has signed, from 2000-2013, 4 of the top 6 states that they have recruited from include the high school football hotbeds of California(1), Florida(2), Ohio(3), and Texas(6). I saw this breakdown on und.com, in their signing day coverage. It's a very interesting breakdown, at the bottom of the page:

Notre Dame Football 2014 Signing Day Central - Presented By American Family Insurance :: UND.COM - University of Notre Dame Official Athletic Site

Right, and ND has to convince these guys to come to South Bend, IN. They have been successful for specific recruits b/c of the two major structural advantages, academics and tradition.

Examples of cases where they have overcome the structural disadvantage of geography is not evidence that this is not a disadvantage.

 

[autry_denson]

Sadly, it's already affecting ND's outstanding ROI. I'm in the process of updating it now.

This is the tradeoff you make when you go after marginal guys. Making the right bets is probably key to the future of hte program.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Right, and ND has to convince these guys to come to South Bend, IN. They have been successful for specific recruits b/c of the two major structural advantages, academics and tradition.

Right. And even when we win the recruiting battles, we're still asking egocentric high school athletes to come to a hostile climate far from home, which has contributed to the high # of transfers and general roster instability.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Great stuff, Autrey. As usual. I think your analysis is on the money and you've identified the most important factors impacting the ND football program, for better or worse.

It is also fantastic that someone puts together a super-thoughtful, well-reasoned series of posts to kickoff a thread that could produce a pretty interesting discussion on not only the state of the program, but the future of the program, and the first response is a mindless objection to a seemingly unarguable point. Classic IE.

 

[autry_denson]

Great stuff, Autrey. As usual. I think you're analysis is on the money and you've identified the most important factors impacted the ND football program, for better or worse.

It is also fantastic that someone puts together a super-thoughtful, well-reasoned series of posts to kickoff a thread that could produce a pretty interesting discussion on not only the state of the program, but the future of the program, and the first response is a mindless objection to a seemingly unarguable point. Classic IE.

Thanks, hope it does generate some productive discussion.

And honestly, the one thing that I assumed would not be controversial is the role of geography. When hundreds of elite players don't have ND in their top 100 they don't specifically say "I don't want to go to South Bend." They don't know where South Bend is, they've never even considered going anywhere in Indiana, and it's not on their radar. Beyond all of the transfers and the guys who seem to love ND but stay close to home, the fact that ND is in Indiana means that we aren't even considered by most elite prospects. This is the effect of location.

 

[stlnd01]

RE: Location. I think certain places (USC, Miami, Texas) have a distinct appeal because they are in big and/or cool cities in good climates. But let's face it, Tuscaloosa and Gainesville and College Station aren't exactly awesome towns either - you're just choosing a hot summer vs. a cold winter. So the "South Bend sucks" argument only goes so far.
What is unique about South Bend is the Notre Dame Bubble. The rather isolated setting of campus relative to the city where it's located. That's different than most large college towns (and most major college football programs). It's certainly different than Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison and other Midwest schools in less-than-ideal climates but cool towns.
This is compounded by some institutional quirks, like single sex dorms and the on-campus-living situation and that pesky "going to class" thing. And by the fact that we recruit nationally, for kids who may not appreciate January in South Bend and against schools who have a much easier lifestyle to sell. Or who might get tired of winter and head back to the comforts of California.
All of this adds up to what Kelly likes to refer to as "shopping down a different aisle." I get how it may knock us out of the box for maybe half of the Top 100 recruits, but I think we ought to embrace it, myself. Own that shit. And go win the half who think what we offer might be worth the hassle. We'll never get the kids who want South Beach. But we can still build a pretty good team out of the kids who are fine with South Bend.

 

[Rhode Irish]

RE: Location. I think certain places (USC, Miami, Texas) have a distinct appeal because they are in big and/or cool cities in good climates. But let's face it, Tuscaloosa and Gainesville and College Station aren't exactly awesome towns either - you're just choosing a hot summer vs. a cold winter. So the "South Bend sucks" argument only goes so far.
What is unique about South Bend is the Notre Dame Bubble. The rather isolated setting of campus relative to the city where it's located. That's different than most large college towns (and most major college football programs). It's certainly different than Ann Arbor, Columbus, Madison and other Midwest schools in less-than-ideal climates but cool towns.
This is compounded by some institutional quirks, like single sex dorms and the on-campus-living situation and that pesky "going to class" thing. And by the fact that we recruit nationally, for kids who may not appreciate January in South Bend and against schools who have a much easier lifestyle to sell. Or who might get tired of winter and head back to the comforts of California.
All of this adds up to what Kelly likes to refer to as "shopping down a different aisle." I get how it may knock us out of the box for maybe half of the Top 100 recruits, but I think we ought to embrace it, myself. Own that shit. And go win the half who think what we offer might be worth the hassle. We'll never get the kids who want South Beach. But we can still build a pretty good team out of the kids who are fine with South Bend.

You're missing a key (really, the key) point about the location thing. It isn't that South Bend is a better or worse town than Tuscaloosa or Gainesville. The point is that the players are near Tuscaloosa and Gainesville, not South Bend. If all the best athletes were from Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois, then maybe the temperature alone of College Station or Tuscaloosa or where ever wouldn't matter so much. But the players aren't in Indiana and the surrounding areas, so you have to convince them to come there.

Somebody pointed out earlier that ND has signed players from Texas and Florida and California, which is both great and absolutely necessary, but they generally aren't pulling the best player in Louisiana or Texas or Florida to South Bend. Could they do it once in a while with the perfect kid? Maybe, but they aren't going to clean up the best those areas have to offer with regularity.

 

[stlnd01]

You're missing a key (really, the key) point about the location thing. It isn't that South Bend is a better or worse town than Tuscaloosa or Gainesville. The point is that the players are near Tuscaloosa and Gainesville, not South Bend. If all the best athletes were from Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and Illinois, then maybe the temperature alone of College Station of Tuscaloosa or where ever wouldn't matter so much. But the players aren't in Indiana and the surrounding areas, so you have to convince them to come there.

Yes. Of course. Much like we got Jaylon Smith because he wanted to stay close to home, Bama and LSU and Florida get lots of elite kids because they want to stay close to home. Meanwhile we're competing with Michigan and Ohio State for the kids who live nearby but want to stay close to home, and we're not going to win every time. We do go father afield than most, but pulling a kid away from the hometown school can be hard. This is compounded by the fact that Notre Dame is often a "harder" place to be than the schools we recruit against. Again we're not going to win every time out.
My point was mainly that the "South Bend sucks" argument isn't really the issue. It's all the other stuff piled on top of being no one's hometown program. We have to work harder and sell kids on what Notre Dame offers. Good news is it still offers a lot.

 

[Rudy89]

Not to stir the pot or upset anyone but while the academics do make us look good to parents it seems like a lot of the top talent at what are considered elite programs now to borrow a phrase from a silly bucknut "aint there to play no school there to football" so while it does make our program look good does it hurt us from getting some of those top athletes. I know this is a touchy subject and I dont mean to sound like a jerk but thats something as a fan I go back and fourth on during different days. Some days im proud I support a school that mold those kids into good people outside of football other days those players will prolly never meet me anywhere and I wanna win bragging rights over the Oregon, Missou, Bama, and OSU fans I work with or see at the gym.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

IMO, academics are what is keeping the program afloat. ND can still get the occasional heavy hitter selling the "40 year decision." These kids have no memory of tradition, etc, and if you took away the prestigious degree, then selling spending 4 years in Indiana instead of California, Florida, or Texas takes a huge hit.

 

[BostonND]

I've said something like this before, and it might not be a popular opinion, but I'd much rather root for a 10 win team that does things the right way than a national champion that doesn't. That doesn't mean I'm conceding that we can win a championship - I think we can have our cake and eat it too - but I would be way more devastated at some sort of academic scandal at ND than some of the football losses we've suffered recently.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I have, as usual, a different view. This, as always, increases my potential for being completely wrong, but what-the-heck, you have to live with who you are.

My view is that Notre Dame's uniqueness is a rousing beast just about to roar again. My view is that Notre Dame STILL has a huge special following among all sorts of parents, coaches, teachers that no other school has. This uniqueness hasn't been a particular advantage because we haven't won enough.

But we will.

Consider what would be true today if Kelly had had ONE DAMM QB of an excellent nature. His win total would probably have been 10+10+12+11. What would the high school kids think then? What increased influence would the ND-sympathetic parents, coaches, teachers have then?

We don't have to get the best guy out of GA, LA, FL, CA, TX. We just have to get two or three of their best. Add the best from MI, OH, IN, IL, PA, the Carolinas, NJ, and we're the Behemoth of the North.

Kelly can do this. He has been VERY close already. AND, he's a better Coach/developer than almost all those "other guys".

The other guys may have the Sun in winter, but none of them have the still existing Notre Dame social infrastructure nor the Notre Dame "we do it right and you all know it" aura.

Powerful Leprechaun Green Days coming.... pass the Koolaid.

 

[vmgsf]

OMM I totally agree. IF IF IF - Kelly, Father Jenkins and the administration and Swarbrick continue to work together effectively there will be more national championship years stamped on "Slap the Sign".

It is true Notre Dame is Catholic big C but it is also catholic small c. It welcomes young men and women of all faiths who are guided by their faiths and have a strong moral compass. Notre Dame is not and will never be and should not want to be Stanford. Stanford is an excellent university but Stanford is not guided by a moral and ethical compass. Standford should be and it is agnostic.

The reasons I am very optimistic.

Father Jenkins and the administration.

Training table established.

NO oversigning but very aggressive Preferred Walk on Program being established. Joe Schmidt is only the first of the coming dividends from this program.

Cody Riggs - the adminstration and Kelly worked closely and seamlessly on this. Whether Cody Riggs comes to Notre Dame or not - making Notre Dame a great place for good football players who are good students and college graduates who want to set themselves up for the future with a business degree from Notre Dame seems a pretty good business decision for Notre Dame and for the young man.

Paying assistant coaches fairly so your head coach can hire outstanding assistant coaches. Do you think BVG would have left the New York Jets to come to Notre Dame (along with his son who is a PWO) if he was not being fairly compensated? Father Jenkins and the university are compensating assistant coaches so that Brian Kelly can hire and retain outstanding assistant coaches.

I am a very old timer. My experience following Notre Dame football. Recruits are looking at three things - first, preparing for the NFL which requires outstanding assistant coaches and an outstanding S&C coach and the training table etc.; second, hot and easy women, nice climate, $$$$$ ($EC F$U, Clem$on, Josh Lautua etc. etc. etc. etc.), and finally education not having to be a real student and never having to go to class or "play school" OR actually work and earn a meaningful college degree that will help to set you up for the rest of your life.

Notre Dame has been and will be extremely successful when it provides an excellent path to the NFL. Notre Dame's commitment to truly educating student athletes and preparing them for living a successful life has been and will always be there. Enough outstanding high school football players from across America - including California - will come to Notre Dame when they believe they will get excellent coaching and preparation to play in the NFL and an outstanding education.

Max Redfield? Do you think he noticed what this coaching staff and Harrison Smith did together? Zach Martin a walking, living endorsement for Harry H and Longo. Nix and Tuitt and Martin all in the first or second round possibly. Do you think recruits notice this?

When their parent or parents beg and plead with them - enough outstanding young football players will be willing to forego the hot and easy women, nice climate, $$$$$ $EC F$U, Clem$on etc., and not having to be a real student and never having to go to class or "play school" and come to Notre Dame when Notre Dame provides them an excellent path to the NFL and an excellent education.

 

[Crazy Balki]

I think the big recruiting issue has nothing to do with what ND does. It's this 1 simple truth: Most elite recruits don't want to hear it. The fact is, even if you're a 5-star athlete, your odds of making it big in the league are slim. Looking back, I remember just as many 3 or 4-star players make it than 5-stars. The fact of the matter is, ND is simply the best place to go for success regardless of your position. If you bust in the league, you have that college education to fall back on. Heck, even when you hang up your cleets for good, what are you gonna do then? Most players don't last more than 5-10 years in the league. Simply put, ND gives you the best combination of academic and athletic success. But the problem is, recruits don't want to be told what could happen if their big "All-Pro, Multi-Million dollar contract" plan falls through. They're spoonfed this bullshit for months or years and it puts them in a position where they want to go to the best school that will get them ready to play in the league. Not even worrying about class. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if a ND player has been to more classes in 1 year than an Alabama player has in 4. Simply put, most elite prospects suffer from MAJOR tunnel vision and don't think of any backup plans for football. Now, some recruits SAY they want an education. Take DeShawn Hand for example. He stated he wanted to go to a school with a huge engineering department. So obviously, being from Virginia, Va Tech would be the obvious choice, right? Nope. He cuts them from the list. Uh, okay, so I guess Michigan is the next bet. A tradition power and a great engineering department right? No? THEN HOW ABOUT ALABAMA!? Y'know that school every elite recruit wants to go to and NOT get their degree, 3-and-out their way to the league and not even bother going to class more than a quarter of the time. Oh but Alabama must have a fantastic engineering department to lure Hand away right? Well, if by "fantastic" you mean "fantastically meh" then sure. Honestly, it's not Notre Dame, it's the recruits. If only they got their heads out of their asses and realized. "Gee...what if this whole NFL thing doesn't work out? Maybe I should get a degree while I'm at this sch-ool."

 

[Andy in Sactown]

I think the big recruiting issue has nothing to do with what ND does. It's this 1 simple truth: Most elite recruits don't want to hear it. The fact is, even if you're a 5-star athlete, your odds of making it big in the league are slim. Looking back, I remember just as many 3 or 4-star players make it than 5-stars. The fact of the matter is, ND is simply the best place to go for success regardless of your position. If you bust in the league, you have that college education to fall back on. Heck, even when you hang up your cleets for good, what are you gonna do then? Most players don't last more than 5-10 years in the league. Simply put, ND gives you the best combination of academic and athletic success. But the problem is, recruits don't want to be told what could happen if their big "All-Pro, Multi-Million dollar contract" plan falls through. They're spoonfed this bullshit for months or years and it puts them in a position where they want to go to the best school that will get them ready to play in the league. Not even worrying about class. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if a ND player has been to more classes in 1 year than an Alabama player has in 4. Simply put, most elite prospects suffer from MAJOR tunnel vision and don't think of any backup plans for football. Now, some recruits SAY they want an education. Take DeShawn Hand for example. He stated he wanted to go to a school with a huge engineering department. So obviously, being from Virginia, Va Tech would be the obvious choice, right? Nope. He cuts them from the list. Uh, okay, so I guess Michigan is the next bet. A tradition power and a great engineering department right? No? THEN HOW ABOUT ALABAMA!? Y'know that school every elite recruit wants to go to and NOT get their degree, 3-and-out their way to the league and not even bother going to class more than a quarter of the time. Oh but Alabama must have a fantastic engineering department to lure Hand away right? Well, if by "fantastic" you mean "fantastically meh" then sure. Honestly, it's not Notre Dame, it's the recruits. If only they got their heads out of their asses and realized. "Gee...what if this whole NFL thing doesn't work out? Maybe I should get a degree while I'm at this sch-ool."

BLOCK OF TEXT! RAWR!

 

[Redbar]

I love the thread and the OP's argument, thanks Autry, BRILLIANT!, as usual. I have one other structural factor that I think is impacting the program and I believe it is becoming a big enough issue to call it a major structural disadvantage, and that is the oversight (or lack thereof) of the NCAA. In different eras there were attempts by the NCAA to create a parity for all D1 college football teams: limiting scholarship number, limiting full time coaches, limiting the amount of time spent on your sport, etc...In the last 20 or 30 years we have seen some programs and some coaches make a complete mockery of the rule book to their advantage. In previous years there was money in college football, but now that the numbers are astronomical, it seems that the NCAA has shifted their focus from creating a more equal playing field for all member schools, to protecting the cash cow conferences and teams that drive the profit model. If the NCAA had not stepped in years ago and changed some of this stuff teams like ND and the other old powerhouses' advantage would be greater than it is today. They put their finger on the scales way back when and maybe it's time they insert the enforcement of rules back into the equation so that we can quit this "race to the bottom" that puts a team like ND at a huge disadvantage.

 

[autry_denson]

Interesting responses here.

Redbar argues that improved enforcement of NCAA regs could enhance ND's advantage by giving kids less of an "incentive" to head to the SEC or some other dirty program and thus amplifying the academic advantage provided by ND. This is intriguing, given the possibility of small payments to student/athletes sometime in the near future. Maybe this could reduce the lure of dirty programs and allow a place like ND to become a more attractive possibility for low-income recruits w very real financial constraints on their minds but also with an eye toward the future?

OMM argues that a few more wins per year gives ND the cachet it needs to reach the tipping point where the structural advantages outweigh the disadvantages. I see the point and it's compelling, but I think this might lead to a situation where ND is the hot program for a few years while things are good, before returning to its current "second tier" status after a few years at the top. This would be fantastic to watch, but I don't think it changes the fundamental argument - our structural disadvantages would re-emerge and the period at the top would be short-lived, if it ever happens.

Again, this is not meant to be a hopeless, pessimistic forecast for the future. Rather, the original post was designed to lay out some basic observations about what we're up against in being a consistently elite program. The upshot is that there may be circumstances that lead to a few years of glory, but the current forecast is for 2nd tier status with a few years up or down mixed in. Unless there is a structural change along the lines of what Redbar proposes I still don't see us having the chance to occupy the position that places like Texas, Bama, LSU and FL/FSU have.

 

[Onemanwolfpack]

I love the thread and the OP's argument, thanks Autry, BRILLIANT!, as usual. I have one other structural factor that I think is impacting the program and I believe it is becoming a big enough issue to call it a major structural disadvantage, and that is the oversight (or lack thereof) of the NCAA. In different eras there were attempts by the NCAA to create a parity for all D1 college football teams: limiting scholarship number, limiting full time coaches, limiting the amount of time spent on your sport, etc...In the last 20 or 30 years we have seen some programs and some coaches make a complete mockery of the rule book to their advantage. In previous years there was money in college football, but now that the numbers are astronomical, it seems that the NCAA has shifted their focus from creating a more equal playing field for all member schools, to protecting the cash cow conferences and teams that drive the profit model. If the NCAA had not stepped in years ago and changed some of this stuff teams like ND and the other old powerhouses' advantage would be greater than it is today. They put their finger on the scales way back when and maybe it's time they insert the enforcement of rules back into the equation so that we can quit this "race to the bottom" that puts a team like ND at a huge disadvantage.

First, off great thread and discussion. Redbar mentions a key point that may be one of ND's greatest disadvantages - oversigning. From 2002-2010 ND averaged 20 players a class, but several teams averaged from the mid 20s to 28 players a class (cough cough Auburn). See the numbers on oversigning.com. Any way you look at it, this is a pretty big structural disadvantage because the margin for error on your roster is already razor thin. Having 6-8 extra recruits a year is a significant advantage for all programs who pushed against the spirit of the NCAA rules to run off players, grayshirt, and consistently oversign.

 

[kmoose]

Right, and ND has to convince these guys to come to South Bend, IN. They have been successful for specific recruits b/c of the two major structural advantages, academics and tradition.

Examples of cases where they have overcome the structural disadvantage of geography is not evidence that this is not a disadvantage.

It's not just a couple of kids.......... California is the #1 state that ND gets recruits from! Your contention was that the location of ND was holding back the success of the program, because it is nearly impossible to convince kids from, say, California, to come to South Bend. Well, regardless of whether it takes effort or not, the fact that California is represented more than any other state, in recruiting, is evidence that South Bend's location is NOT holding us back. It may make it more difficult, but we are meeting that challenge, so it isn't holding us back.

 

[stlnd01]

Unless there is a structural change along the lines of what Redbar proposes I still don't see us having the chance to occupy the position that places like Texas, Bama, LSU and FL/FSU have.

What position is that?
Saban's got Bama in a good place, and FSU obviously's atop the sport right now. But both have had fallow periods not so long ago. I'd put our performance up against Texas and Florida the last few years. LSU? Thanks, but I'll pass on all the issues there. There's about 15 programs that have the resources, coaching, recruiting base, etc. to expect to compete for major bowls/titles every year. We're one of them. But no one's going to win every year, and we've got things trending in a good direction for a change.

The things we can control (short of throwing academic standards out the window), we are. The things we can't (oversigning, demographic shifts), there's nothing we can do about. We need to focus on recruiting the kinds of kids who want to be here, who are good fit - "shopping down a different aisle" - and winning games and helping them to the NFL. Show recruits that you can win at football and at life. Some of them are smart enough to appreciate that, and we only need 20 a year.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

OMM argues that a few more wins per year gives ND the cachet it needs to reach the tipping point where the structural advantages outweigh the disadvantages. I see the point and it's compelling, but I think this might lead to a situation where ND is the hot program for a few years while things are good, before returning to its current "second tier" status after a few years at the top. This would be fantastic to watch, but I don't think it changes the fundamental argument - our structural disadvantages would re-emerge and the period at the top would be short-lived, if it ever happens.

I in large part agree with this. It's no coincidence that we had the best recruiting year of BK's career (2013 class) following our NC appearance. Following a nearly disastrous (in hindsight) 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes, it's the 2013 and 2014 classes that BK's going to have to ride-or-die with. If we establish ourselves as a winning program, the recruiting is only going to get better, and can become a long term powerhouse again.

 

[Crazy Balki]

I in large part agree with this. It's no coincidence that we had the best recruiting year of BK's career (2013 class) following our NC appearance. Following a nearly disastrous (in hindsight) 2011 and 2012 recruiting classes, it's the 2013 and 2014 classes that BK's going to have to ride-or-die with. If we establish ourselves as a winning program, the recruiting is only going to get better, and can become a long term powerhouse again.

I don't necessarily agree with that thinking. 2011's class isn't as great as I originally thought, but for different reasons. They got the players to go there, some things happened and they fell through on the way there. 2012 is in a similar boat. ND had the makings of a top 10 class, and all of it fell apart late in the cycle, but it was out of their control. Tee Shepard wasn't going to cut it academically, and Greenberry wasn't coming without Tee there. Darby decided not to come, because ND's track team wasn't good enough...yeah, sounds legit. Then Kiel, Ferguson and Neal jumped ship for different reasons. Just can't control that. Heck, even the 2013 wasn't without it's drama (Anzalone and Vanderdoesn't). That's what I love about this class (fingers crossed), there was no major drama in the cycle, and hopefully that will continue throughout their 4 years in South Bend.

 

[AgentJ]

My starting point is to identify what I consider to be the major structural forces affecting the program.

Structural disadvantages:
1) Location. The university’s location in South Bend will always be the biggest barrier to perennial contention for national championships. Being in Indiana, geographically removed from the talent in the south and west, in one of the many old, declining former industrial cities of the Midwest is almost impossible to overcome.

South Bend is hardly declining.... the city has been declining since Studebaker closed in the 60s.

Pete Buttegieg actually tied with Bloomberg for Mayor of the Year in 2013.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm not particularly worried about big talent when it comes to weather in South Bend. It's very easy to say "You're looking to play in the NFL? Guess what? You don't get to choose which team you land with, and there are several teams that don't play indoors. Time to get ready for cold weather football."

I'd be more worried about those decent, undervalued 3 stars and some 4 stars that don't necessarily have NFL aspirations and are looking to have fun in college in a temperate climate.