Last week in this space, I suggested that Michigan's harrowing, 28–24 scare against a MAC doormat, Akron, was a meaningless fluke that said nothing about the Wolverines' prospects for the rest of the season. I will stand by that. But a harrowing, 28–24 scare against a MAC doormat, immediately followed by a harrowing, 24–21 scare against an American Athletic doormat? Fool me twice, shame on me.
The big problem, as usual, is turnovers. Against Akron, Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner was responsible for all four of his team's giveaways, including an interception return for a touchdown that put the impossible within reach in the fourth quarter. Against Connecticut, he was responsible for three of four, including two interceptions and a fumble return for a touchdown that put the Huskies up by two touchdowns in the third. (The other turnover on Saturday was a muffed punt by Da'Mario Jones that set up UConn's second touchdown "drive" from the Michigan 9-yard line.) Nationally, the only team with more giveaways through the first four weeks is Western Kentucky.
The Devin Gardner we saw against Notre Dame was a confident, competent star in the making who lived up to every expectation, save for one inexplicably reckless play under pressure – a minor, correctable kink to smooth out amid all the positives. No one after that game could have predicted the Gardner we'd see against arguably the two worst teams on the schedule would look more like the guy who temporarily lost his mind in the end zone. After scoring on seven of eleven possessions against the Irish, against the Zips and Huskies the offense has only scored on eight of twenty-five. Towson had a better night against UConn than Michigan did, in every respect.
Again, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that we're talking about a team that's 4–0 with one of the most impressive victories of the season under its belt, followed by back-to-back rallies from fourth-quarter deficits. Strictly from a talent perspective, the Wolverines have an edge on everyone they play until the finale against Ohio State; that also goes for Gardner against every opposing quarterback between here and Braxton Miller. The Big Ten standings don't incorporate style points. At this rate, though, Gardner's decision-making is looking increasingly like a time bomb waiting to go off, equally feared by everyone in the stadium on both sides. The next opponent, Minnesota, just moved to 4–0 itself with one of its most validating victories in years (see below) and boasts the best turnover margin in the conference. A team with championship ambitions can only afford so many close calls.