SBNation's 2012 Notre Dame Football Preview

[Whiskeyjack]

This preview is probably the best one you'll read all off-season. Some choice snippets:

Notre Dame lost five games in 2011; in only one (Stanford 28, Notre Dame 14) were they beaten beyond the turnover points margin.

Defining Success

Notre Dame's schedule features just three games versus teams projected worse than 45th. Yikes. Trips to Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC should tamp the win total down even if the Irish improve (and get some bounces). We'll set the success-or-not bar at eight wins, but this is an awkward time for Brian Kelly. He certainly won't get fired for going 8-4 -- not even close -- but the natives will probably begin to get restless. "Yeah, but the stats say we're getting better!" doesn't tend to work when it comes to rallying the fanbase. At some point, you'll need to actually break through. It probably won't be this year.

Prognosis

It is difficult to ignore just how well Notre Dame has recruited recently, just how much the stats like them, and just how much turnovers -- a notoriously fickle statistic from year to year -- conspired against what might have otherwise been a 10- or 11-win season last year. However, it is almost good, in my case, that the schedule is so difficult because it allows me to hedge my bets.

Question marks at wide receiver and perhaps cornerback could prevent the Irish from improving on last year's F/+ ranking of 13th. But even if they do improve, they could still only be looking at a ceiling of nine or 10 wins. But the good news is that, with players like Everett Golston (or whoever either defeats or succeeds Rees), Amir Carlisle, George Atkinson III, Louis Nix III, Stephon Tuitt, Troy Niklas, Ishaq Williams, and Josh Atkinson, the Irish have a wealth of freshmen and sophomores who have shown just enough to suggest that Notre Dame's ceiling is only going to get higher in 2013 and beyond. And if I'm lucky, I'll get to call them underrated for the third consecutive season next fall. Can't wait.

 

[rock_knutne]

IMO, ND will be better than the experts think, especially Andre Ware.

 

[NDhoosier]

Ware is an idiot, but I agree with this SBNation assessment. It all comes down to Turnovers in my opinion... There is a difference between an inexperienced QB throwing an INT every now and then, when compared to fumble at the opposing 1 yard line and getting scored on, which is essentially a 14 point swing.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Bill Connelly just became one of my favorite sportswriters. That was perfect.

 

[rock_knutne]

Ware is an idiot, but I agree with this SBNation assessment. It all comes down to Turnovers in my opinion... There is a difference between an inexperienced QB throwing an INT every now and then, when compared to fumble at the opposing 1 yard line and getting scored on, which is essentially a 14 point swing.

Good post, especially on the turnovers.......100% agree.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Bill Connelly just became one of my favorite sportswriters. That was perfect.

+1

If you're into CFB stats, I strongly suggest following @bcfremeau and @SBN_BillC

Bill and Brian are the two guys behind Football Outsiders, and their analysis is better than anyone's (even Phil Steele's). Brian is an ND grad to boot.

 

[ACamp1900]

We have no quarter back.......... against this schedule...... I am expecting more frustration, then dust ourselves off and move forward from there... hopefully with a decent recruiting class still intact.

I still can not believe this team didn't break through last year... had to have 2011.

 

[DCirishfan]

Eh, let's see us win...

 

[no.1IrishFan]

Personally, I look at this team, and schedule, and have reserved expectations for this season. But, in the back of my mind I think of what this team would be like with a reliable, consistant QB. We are a good QB away from being a serious contender, even with the holes in the defensive backfield.
I know it's a stretch but consider this years team with a JC or BQ taking snaps!
We're not as far away as some people think.

 

[ACamp1900]

We're not as far away as some people think.

That's what made last season especially hard...

 

[johnnykillz]

I didn't appreciate him misspelling Golson's last name.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

One of my few major concerns about Diaco is reflected in the following:

Now, about those turnovers: Notre Dame somehow managed to force just eight fumbles a year ago. Only ten teams forced fewer; you almost accidentally force more than that in a given year. No defender forced more than one, and somehow in the course of 95.0 tackles, Te'o forced none. Notre Dame fumbled 10 more times than its opponents in 2011, and you are obviously going to lose the turnover battle when that is the case (especially when your quarterbacks throw nearly 20 interceptions to boot).

The good news: Of the 18 teams that forced eight or fewer fumbles in 2010, 15 improved their totals in 2011, and 10 forced at least 12.

The bad news: One of the teams that didn't improve was Notre Dame, which also forced eight in 2010. Ouch. You can write off one iffy season in this regard, but two almost becomes a personality defect.

There is just enough new blood in this year's rotation that it's possible some Notre Dame defenders with better ball-stripping skills will have a chance to play their trade in 2012. But chances are good that this defense just isn't going to force many fumbles. And considering the secondary must replace three starters, including both cornerbacks, chances are good that they won't pick off many passes either. They are one of the best defenses in the country in simply stopping the opponent; but were not big on big plays and turnovers, and they probably will not be in 2012.

Part of me worries that Diaco's 3-4 might be schematically incapable of generating TOs at a normal pace. One wouldn't expect Diaco's conservative Cover-2 to generate many TOs, especially given his reluctance to blitz. But the anemic rate at which we've generated defensive TOs over the last two seasons might be more than a statistical anomaly, and it's been every bit as problematic as our offensive TOs.

IIRC, in a recent article Lou Somogyi broke down ND's 2011 TO woes, and it turns out our offensive TOs (while coming at absurdly terrible times) weren't unexpectedly high; our terrible TO margin was due mainly to our defense's inability to generate TOs.

If that continues in 2012, with a green QB under center, we may be in for a long season.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

One of my few major concerns about Diaco is reflected in the following:



Part of me worries that Diaco's 3-4 might be schematically incapable of generating TOs at a normal pace. One wouldn't expect Diaco's conservative Cover-2 to generate many TOs, especially given his reluctance to blitz. But the anemic rate at which we've generated defensive TOs over the last two seasons might be more than a statistical anomaly, and it's been every bit as problematic as our offensive TOs.

IIRC, in a recent article Lou Somogyi broke down ND's 2011 TO woes, and it turns out our offensive TOs (while coming at absurdly terrible times) weren't unexpectedly high; our terrible TO margin was due mainly to our defense's inability to generate TOs.

If that continues in 2012, with a green QB under center, we may be in for a long season.

True, we went from Tenuta blitzing 3 out of 4 downs, to Diaco rarely blitzing. There has to be some middle ground if we are to create more turnovers.

 

[Downinthebend]

One of my few major concerns about Diaco is reflected in the following:



Part of me worries that Diaco's 3-4 might be schematically incapable of generating TOs at a normal pace. One wouldn't expect Diaco's conservative Cover-2 to generate many TOs, especially given his reluctance to blitz. But the anemic rate at which we've generated defensive TOs over the last two seasons might be more than a statistical anomaly, and it's been every bit as problematic as our offensive TOs.

IIRC, in a recent article Lou Somogyi broke down ND's 2011 TO woes, and it turns out our offensive TOs (while coming at absurdly terrible times) weren't unexpectedly high; our terrible TO margin was due mainly to our defense's inability to generate TOs.

If that continues in 2012, with a green QB under center, we may be in for a long season.

How can you tell what coverage ND plays?

 

[FLDomer]

How can you tell what coverage ND plays?

look at it and watch

 

[Downinthebend]

look at it and watch

I mean, he (whisky) characterized ND as a cover 2 team, i'm not curious how he determined that.

 

[arrowryan]

Is this a tough schedule? Yes. Can we have 9 win season with this kind of schedule? Yes.

 

[STLDomer]

We definitlely play cover 2 most, I know this by looking and watching the games

We do not blitz enough and our DBs were not looking for INTs enough. Seems to me we get turnovers when we are "loose" and not feeling pressure aka our last two bowl games

We also do play teams that either are good or pride themselves in not turning it over ( The Academys)

 

[ACamp1900]

True, we went from Tenuta blitzing 3 out of 4 downs, to Diaco rarely blitzing. There has to be some middle ground if we are to create more turnovers.

I will take Diaco's any day though... nothing was worse than blitzing on every play without ever reaching the QB or applying pressure

 

[NDdomer2]

As for the turnover issue I ask this. What position group should create the most fumbles? Is it dline, lbs, or dbs? Clearly, I think you can rule out db's but without looking I bet they tied for the lead last year in forced fumbles by position group. Personally, I think it should be dline. We did pressure the qb better than in years past but it didn't result in more forced fumbles, which I think comes from lack of attempting to strip by our dline. The other reason I choose the dline is they also get in on the run game. Even if a lineman is fully engaged you can stick a hand out and punch a ball out. As for interceptions, our db's need to be markedly better at creating interceptions. Even if the on ball defender just gives the rest of the teammates a chance by the ol' "tip drill." However, I would love to see our lb's getting more involved in interceptions. When I think back to the USC game, they didn't really give our db's a chance to make any plays. They just PA bootlegged and through intermediate knowing our lb's were nowhere to be found. Hopefully we can see more plays from our lb's like Ishaq made in the spring game.

 

[irishpat183]

Just win. I don't wanna hear anymore excuses.

Great teams don't have excuses.

 

[woolybug25]

Just win. I don't wanna hear anymore excuses.

Great teams don't have excuses.

Somebody had to do it...

 

[Rhode Irish]

Just win. I don't wanna hear anymore excuses.

Great teams don't have excuses.

In your mind, what is the difference between conducting analysis and making excuses? Because I don't see any way to look at last season and talk about it in any meaningful way without acknowledging the turnover problem. Putting the turnover problem in proper context isn't making excuses. At least not to me.

 

[phork]

Somebody had to do it...

Some would say 2 men....

 

[Rack Em]

As for the turnover issue I ask this. What position group should create the most fumbles? Is it dline, lbs, or dbs? Clearly, I think you can rule out db's but without looking I bet they tied for the lead last year in forced fumbles by position group. Personally, I think it should be dline. We did pressure the qb better than in years past but it didn't result in more forced fumbles, which I think comes from lack of attempting to strip by our dline. The other reason I choose the dline is they also get in on the run game. Even if a lineman is fully engaged you can stick a hand out and punch a ball out. As for interceptions, our db's need to be markedly better at creating interceptions. Even if the on ball defender just gives the rest of the teammates a chance by the ol' "tip drill." However, I would love to see our lb's getting more involved in interceptions. When I think back to the USC game, they didn't really give our db's a chance to make any plays. They just PA bootlegged and through intermediate knowing our lb's were nowhere to be found. Hopefully we can see more plays from our lb's like Ishaq made in the spring game.

Good points. I played one year of organized football so somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

In 2010 and 2011 we didn't generate many sacks. In fact, our pass rush was anemic in 2010 but somewhat improved last year. I have no statistics but just going off of how much football I watch, the player that seems to fumble the most is the QB.

Running backs go through drills on ball security and they expect to get hit every play they touch the ball. In roughly 2003, Tiki Barber had a bad case of the fumbles and corrected this by carrying the ball at a 45 degree angle in his chest versus carrying it horizontal to the ground. RBs have the ability to make those adjustments to how they hold the ball to make it harder for DL and LB to knock it out. Additionally, you expect bruising RBs (like LenDale White at USC) to use 2 hands on short yardage situations.

QBs, I feel, are the most likely to fumble. The hold the ball away from their chests in the pocket and aren't trained (as much) to secure the ball when they take off. How many times has a guy like Denard Robinson or Vince Young or Pat White held the ball away from their body with one hand when the pocket collapses and they take off to run? I've seen mobile QBs do that a lot. Think about Lynch's sack on Kirk Cousins last season. Cousins wasn't expecting to get hit and lost the ball. A RB in that situation expects to get hit and subconsciously knows to secure the ball.

I fully expect that a more dominant pass rush would allow our DL, and LBs, to force more sacks and therefore fumbles.

 

[NDdomer2]

Good points. I played one year of organized football so somebody correct me if I'm wrong.

In 2010 and 2011 we didn't generate many sacks. In fact, our pass rush was anemic in 2010 but somewhat improved last year. I have no statistics but just going off of how much football I watch, the player that seems to fumble the most is the QB.

Running backs go through drills on ball security and they expect to get hit every play they touch the ball. In roughly 2003, Tiki Barber had a bad case of the fumbles and corrected this by carrying the ball at a 45 degree angle in his chest versus carrying it horizontal to the ground. RBs have the ability to make those adjustments to how they hold the ball to make it harder for DL and LB to knock it out. Additionally, you expect bruising RBs (like LenDale White at USC) to use 2 hands on short yardage situations.

QBs, I feel, are the most likely to fumble. The hold the ball away from their chests in the pocket and aren't trained (as much) to secure the ball when they take off. How many times has a guy like Denard Robinson or Vince Young or Pat White held the ball away from their body with one hand when the pocket collapses and they take off to run? I've seen mobile QBs do that a lot. Think about Lynch's sack on Kirk Cousins last season. Cousins wasn't expecting to get hit and lost the ball. A RB in that situation expects to get hit and subconsciously knows to secure the ball.

I fully expect that a more dominant pass rush would allow our DL, and LBs, to force more sacks and therefore fumbles.

To further with the Dline and creating fumbles via the qb. Our dline was pretty young last year. Two true freshman and a "redshirt" soph. We look to be pretty young upfront again this year, but hopefully they are learning their roles/gaps better and can start focusing on smaller things like stripping.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

ND was frustratingly conservative in almost every facet of the game last season: very little blitzing, no throwing downfield, almost no use of the no-huddle offense, pulling Crist for the steady hand QB, and don't get me started on the punt return unit...

The USF debacle was probably the catalyst but it was frustrating to watch the Irish play to avoid losses. They basically spent the Wake and Maryland games pumping the breaks and waiting for the clock to expire.

Brian Kelly wasn't brought here to be Dick Jauron and the sooner he he gets schematically aggressive the better.

 

[Downinthebend]

We definitlely play cover 2 most, I know this by looking and watching the games

We do not blitz enough and our DBs were not looking for INTs enough. Seems to me we get turnovers when we are "loose" and not feeling pressure aka our last two bowl games

We also do play teams that either are good or pride themselves in not turning it over ( The Academys)

I haven't really seen the same about cover 2 when I went through the FSU game again of the plays I could see it looked like ND had a one-high look more than a two high look in coverage postsnap, but used them all (cover 1 and cover 2 man and zone). I wouldn't call it mostly anything. But it doesn't really matter; the point is that we are a conservative team on defense, which is certainly true.

 

[phork]

ND was frustratingly conservative in almost every facet of the game last season: very little blitzing, no throwing downfield, almost no use of the no-huddle offense, pulling Crist for the steady hand QB, and don't get me started on the punt return unit...

The USF debacle was probably the catalyst but it was frustrating to watch the Irish play to avoid losses. They basically spent the Wake and Maryland games pumping the breaks and waiting for the clock to expire.

Brian Kelly wasn't brought here to be Dick Jauron and the sooner he he gets schematically aggressive the better.

I really hadn't thought of it quite that way, very nice insight. Be nice to see the beast unleashed.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Is this a tough schedule? Yes. Can we have 9 win season with this kind of schedule? Yes.

/thread