Russia Invades Ukraine

[Rack Em]

I read a decent argument on Twitter today that we rolled out the Marshall Plan for western Europe because we were already being pressured by the USSR. Russia didn't get the same treatment in 1992 because we weren't worried about China at the time, and assumed we'd be looking at many decades of easy peace as the global hegemon.

Now we're worried about China, so let's hope that motivates them to bring Russia back into the fold rather risk turning them into interwar Germany.

"Not gonna happen. Moar War!!!"
- Lindsey Graham

 

[NorthDakota]

Barry Pepper did the same thing to that Nazi bastard.

Then he hit 61 home runs breaking the babe's record. And dont even get me started on his combat photography with the 7th Cav in Nam

 

[PerthDomer]

The Ukraine disaster is about an easier, cheaper, and more secure (for Russia) transport corridor for heavy natural resource goods. Putin if he had more than two neurons to rub together should have stuck to the plan of undercutting Ukrainian governance in the eastern Ukrainian provinces, and then used the chaos to negotiate the corridor through the rest of Ukraine while leaving the actual pro-Ukraine part of Ukraine intact and without need to kill thousands of people with moronic moves.

Those two eastern provinces WERE rallying against central government and would probably truly "welcome their Russian friends as liberators" allowing Putin to install puppet governments in the two "new states." (note that Russia has already long recognized their "national status.") Why are those two "different"? I'm going to guess that this is the result of an old Soviet plan long before Putin. The Soviets took areas which looked potentially strategic and removed most of the native populace and replaced them with persons not native to the areas, including many Russians. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are prominantly structured this way (Samarkand being about 50% Russian citizens) and guess what?: that's where most of the natural resources are. Those eastern Ukrainian provinces were ripe for "revolution." But because Putin is either a powerful buffoon, or a not quite so powerful politician, he went full-stupid and decided to grab it all. Thus the sanctions as his reward.

Will these sanctions "destroy the Russian economy?" Well, no. They will constrict it temporarily and hurt the population, and even the oligarchs, but destroy it? No. Unless Russia was bombed back to the Stone Age, its economy will persist and grow over time. Why? Because it is a resources Giant. As long as the rest of the world keeps chasing technological growth as fast as can be possible (no one should doubt the global economy's intent there) the racers will desire Oil, Gas, liquid fuels, other oil products, coal even, Iron, Titanium, Aluminum, rare metals, fiber (a la lumber), and a lot of things that I no longer remember from studies done before I got old. ... and no, you can't just go to another "store" and buy them --- not at the speed and competition that the global economy demands.

So Russia's economy will rebound. Germany will still want {badly) the energy resources. Russia was on the path to a major upgrade in its economy unless something stupid happened. Putin happened. When he's gone, the Russian economy will join the Globe again.

Russia's issue is that they're good at extraction if they have tech support. Look at what happened to Venezuela under Chavez/Maduro. They lost foreign investment/support at strangled the Golden goose. Russia is in steep terminal demographic decline and young people who can leave do. Their only real future without a rapprochement to Europe is to be a Chinese vassal.

 

[PerthDomer]

Putin's placed 5 FSB members (used to be KGB) under house arrest. It looks like purges might be starting...

Putin Places Spies Under House Arrest

After two weeks of halting war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin just suddenly launched an attack in a surprising direction — his beloved agency, the FSB.

cepa.org

 

[irishog77]

"Not gonna happen. Moar War!!!"
- Lindsey Graham

 

[BrownerandFry]

No issue. I should have used a font or something. My apologies.

I actually like that veterans and citizens are stepping up going over there to fight against Russians. I believe it to be true.

Seeing multiple people on boards and social media not believing anything about anything as it relates to a lot of pro Ukraine news, posts, videos, etc. If I didn't know any better, I think a few are Putin sympathizers. To each their own. We must respect everyone's opinions.

No there is a subtle difference

We live in a society where each person is allowed to have
and express their own opinions.

I mightily resist any allegation that I must "respect everyone's opinions." Tolerate? Yes, but not respect

no more than in Germany I would have "respected" Dolph and Joey and Reynard's opinions about the "Final Solution."

 

[IrishLax]

Putin's placed 5 FSB members (used to be KGB) under house arrest. It looks like purges might be starting...

Putin Places Spies Under House Arrest

After two weeks of halting war against Ukraine, Vladimir Putin just suddenly launched an attack in a surprising direction — his beloved agency, the FSB.

cepa.org

Yup, right out of the Stalin playbook. Cut the stems of all of the tall flowers if you're worried about a coup.

 

[IrishLax]

It's shocking how bad most leaders must be at poker. Even if this is how you feel you gain nothing and give up a lot by saying "we're not willing to engage Russia under any circumstances." This is the kind of shit that gives them a tacit green light to use chemical weapons, etc. Literally Diplomacy 101 style stuff about how to posture and use rhetoric.

 

[IrishLax]

This guy gets it:

 

[Whiskeyjack]

This guy gets it:

NATO vs Russia would not be WWIII. Russia doesn't have the military capability to win a conventional war against many junior members of the Alliance, much less all 30 member countries.

By definition, a war that is localized entirely in Ukraine cannot be a world war. Just because Biden referred to WWIII as a rhetorical device in an explanation for why we're not shooting at Russian troops directly doesn't prove his stupid theory right.

Abramson is a small step up from Eric Garland and Louise Mensch. Would not recommend taking him seriously.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's shocking how bad most leaders must be at poker. Even if this is how you feel you gain nothing and give up a lot by saying "we're not willing to engage Russia under any circumstances." This is the kind of shit that gives them a tacit green light to use chemical weapons, etc. Literally Diplomacy 101 style stuff about how to posture and use rhetoric.

I agree that it's ill-advised to publish this, but he's doing it because he's getting attacked from the left for not being willing to risk nuclear war.

If you'd like our Democratic president to not be forced to say the quiet part out loud, then all the newly bloodthirsty liberals and Progressives need to remember 2003, stop credulously consuming so much "mainstream media", and STFU about Ukraine when they've been tragically wrong about every war of choice we've opted into over the last 30 years.

 

[Wild Bill]

NATO is sticking with their script from the Cold War. Both sides constantly sent their proxies gear that could be used by infantry, but they didn't often send expensive high-tech stuff like fighter jets. MiGs obviously aren't cutting edge compared to an F-35, but they're still a helluva lot more expensive and threatening than shoulder-fired rockets. NATO's brass feels like having a member deploy that sort of materiel--even if it's not piloted by a NATO soldier--is a little too close to outright war.

Sending migs or any other type of military aid that may prompt Russian retaliation could be a non starter bc NATO may internally believe any level of aid short of NATO troops will do nothing to reinforce or support what's left of Ukrainian military.

I have little doubt the Russians are hard at work dismantling Ukraine's military right now, even if it's been a greater struggle than they initially anticipated.

Crossed my mind the last couple days and Biden's recent tweet makes more sense if it's true.

I think you're right, he's signaling to Americans but it may be a public signal to Ukraine to start thinking about concessions and a deal.

Who the hell knows.

 

[drayer54]

Did Biden chicken out on giving Ukraine those migs?

 

[NorthDakota]

Ukraine is burying their people in mass graves while NATO continues to do minimal to help

That may be true. But we don't know

Ukraine has absolutely been waging an information war. I dont blame them for doing it. But they are absolutely telling lies to try and pull us in. Their president told us we have blood on our hands for not going to nuclear war.

I forget the dude's name... but ten years ago he warned everyone that our actions were gonna get Ukraine demolished. He was right. We let them think we'd help them. And how they are getting jailsexed.

There was a time to do something big. That time was months and years ago. They are going to make a deal.

 

[NorthDakota]

Did Biden chicken out on giving Ukraine those migs?

I dont want them to get Migs. People keep pretending this is David v. Goliath where David can win. Ukraine isn't David.

The sooner they make a deal the better. Russia has probably gotten the message that Ukraine has limited interest in reforming the soviet republics. But Russia will be doing what it takes to seize the Russian areas.

All the weird cheerleading in the US is creepy to me. People are literally cheering for kids to go get killed while we change Twitter profile pics to Ukraine flags.

Time for Ukraine to make a deal.

 

[GATTACA!]

Time for Ukraine to make a deal.

 

[PerthDomer]

If Russia takes Kiev they'll lose tens of thousands more soldiers and face months more under sanctions. If they take Kiev they'll have to keep going and face a resistance worse than what they saw in Afganistan. Russia could maybe "take" Kiev, but that risks internal instability, and they would win more conventional war and an ongoing insurgency. They're not a big enough country to pull that off in the long term.

 

[Te'o4Heisman]

It's shocking how bad most leaders must be at poker. Even if this is how you feel you gain nothing and give up a lot by saying "we're not willing to engage Russia under any circumstances." This is the kind of shit that gives them a tacit green light to use chemical weapons, etc. Literally Diplomacy 101 style stuff about how to posture and use rhetoric.

100% but it should not surprise anybody. Biden is a buffoon. Im not sure that Putin ever would, but why eliminate the process of him having to calculate “what if”.

 

[Rack Em]

Send cigs not MiGs.

 

[NDRock]

I dont want them to get Migs. People keep pretending this is David v. Goliath where David can win. Ukraine isn't David.

The sooner they make a deal the better. Russia has probably gotten the message that Ukraine has limited interest in reforming the soviet republics. But Russia will be doing what it takes to seize the Russian areas.

All the weird cheerleading in the US is creepy to me. People are literally cheering for kids to go get killed while we change Twitter profile pics to Ukraine flags.

Time for Ukraine to make a deal.

Might be an age gap but I find it completely strange when people aren’t “rooting“ for Ukraine. Maybe I’m a product of growing up during the Cold War or in a time when America’s own David vs Goliath origin story was more celebrated. Screw Russia and the British Royal family.

Anyone who takes Russia’s side probably roots for the IRS or the casino in blackjack.

 

[Bishop2b5]

I dont want them to get Migs. People keep pretending this is David v. Goliath where David can win. Ukraine isn't David.

The sooner they make a deal the better. Russia has probably gotten the message that Ukraine has limited interest in reforming the soviet republics. But Russia will be doing what it takes to seize the Russian areas.

All the weird cheerleading in the US is creepy to me. People are literally cheering for kids to go get killed while we change Twitter profile pics to Ukraine flags.

Time for Ukraine to make a deal.

I just find it impossible to stomach simply standing by and letting Putin get away with this. It's setting a horrible precedent, encouraging bad behavior, and makes us look weak. I understand Whiskey's reasoning that it's not worth a nuclear war, and he's right, but just letting this happen to Ukraine and letting Putin bully his way into getting what he wants sticks in my craw also. I don't know what the correct answer is, but I know I don't like this one.

 

[calvegas04]

I dont want them to get Migs. People keep pretending this is David v. Goliath where David can win. Ukraine isn't David.

The sooner they make a deal the better. Russia has probably gotten the message that Ukraine has limited interest in reforming the soviet republics. But Russia will be doing what it takes to seize the Russian areas.

All the weird cheerleading in the US is creepy to me. People are literally cheering for kids to go get killed while we change Twitter profile pics to Ukraine flags.

Time for Ukraine to make a deal.

Did you lose a lot of stock in the russian market or something? It is pretty gross how pro putin you are

 

[Wild Bill]

Might be an age gap but I find it completely strange when people aren’t “rooting“ for Ukraine. Maybe I’m a product of growing up during the Cold War or in a time when America’s own David vs Goliath origin story was more celebrated. Screw Russia and the British Royal family.

Anyone who takes Russia’s side probably roots for the IRS or the casino in blackjack.

Just think about the last thirty years of American foreign policy and look at the people pushing the hardest for war, some of the worst humans you can imagine, and you may find it a bit less strange.

I find it strange how comfortable people are with engaging a nuclear armed country and how quick people are to ridicule level headed restraint.

Whatever. I rest easy knowing my position is the exact opposite of John Bolton. He's a great resource for trying to figure out these nuanced foreign policy issues - always do the opposite of what he says and you'll be right.

 

[NDRock]

Just think about the last thirty years of American foreign policy and look at the people pushing the hardest for war, some of the worst humans you can imagine, and you may find it a bit less strange.

I find it strange how comfortable people are with engaging a nuclear armed country and how quick people are to ridicule level headed restraint.

Whatever. I rest easy knowing my position is the exact opposite of John Bolton. He's a great resource for trying to figure out these nuanced foreign policy issues - always do the opposite of what he says and you'll be right.

Couldn’t agree more, guys like Bolton are the worst. Unsurprisingly , the ones who beat the drums for war loudest never served when they had the opportunity.

 

[BrownerandFry]

If Russia takes Kiev they'll lose tens of thousands more soldiers and face months more under sanctions. If they take Kiev they'll have to keep going and face a resistance worse than what they saw in Afganistan. Russia could maybe "take" Kiev, but that risks internal instability, and they would win more conventional war and an ongoing insurgency. They're not a big enough country to pull that off in the long term.

The irony here is historic.

Napoleon sent 600,000 soldiers to Russia. 100,000 returned.

Hitler sent 3 million to Russia. Didn't end well.

Putin invaded Ukraine and committed war crimes (fill in the blank)__________________________________________

 

[IrishLax]

Sad.

 

[IrishLax]

This is a very interesting read.

 

[GATTACA!]

This is a very interesting read.

Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle.

You love to see it.

 

[PerthDomer]

Think about this. Russia has lost 3 major generals in 2 weeks. Putin has apparently fired 8. Europeans estimate Russia had about 10k KIA before this weekend with massive material losses. Pitin has already put 5 high ranking spies on house arrest. As the Russians move closer to Kiev casualties will get higher. Economic sanctions will compound in country. Putin is racing against time and can't get a strategic win

We're also following the great power playbook of the cold war. No American soldiers, but sharing of weapons and intelligence. It's what the Soviets did in Vietnam and what we did in Afganistan.

The kicker is Russia is smaller and weaker than the US and the USSR. Ukraine is bigger/better armed than Vietnam in the 60s or Afganistan in the 80's. Putin took a big gamble with a bad hand. It's our job to make it clear this is direct Russia/Ukraine conflict and not bring nato in directly. But It's not our job to massage Putin's ego.

 

[Rasputin]

At the rate this war is going at what point do the US/EU have to sit down with China to figure out how to divide up Russia into East Russia and West Russia (East Ukraine)?