Politics

Politics

  • Obama

    Votes: 4 1.1%
  • Romney

    Votes: 172 48.9%
  • Other

    Votes: 46 13.1%
  • a:3:{i:1637;a:5:{s:12:"polloptionid";i:1637;s:6:"nodeid";s:7:"2882145";s:5:"title";s:5:"Obama";s:5:"

    Votes: 130 36.9%

  • Total voters
    352

Irish YJ

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According to OPM, Cali has ~155K employees, which is most of any state. Based on 2018 population estimates, Cali has 39M people living there. So, 0.4% of the population is working for the Fed Gov't. That same number is 0.7% for Georgia, 0.45% for Texas, 0.75% for Alabama, and 0.57% for the US and District of Columbia. Cali could be hurt, but data would suggest the magnitude of the pain would be less than other states.

According to Nerdwallet, the top 5 states that get the most in contracts versus how much they pay in taxes is Mississippi, Alabama, Virginia, New Mexico and Maryland. It would stand to reason these states would proportionally be hurt more than California.

artwork-2018-states-most-dependent-on-the-federal-government-v1.png


The number has been moving downward over the last 10 years with wider locks in Panama. But even in your scenario, the infrastructure needed to both receive the additional containers and then distribute efficiently to areas California serves today isn't cost effective, especially with you factor in Asia shipping and the expense of going through Panama.

Per capita, that is not the case. Plus, those figures do not cover LEGAL immigrants, which outnumbers the outflow.

And the differential in tax rate would not be small. Again, 25% of the federal dollars Californians send to Washington never come back. That is also not factoring in how much other states would need to increase their taxes as they take in more money from the Feds than what they provide.

Let's start with things we can't debate. Cali is in horrible fiscal shape. The infrastructure is horrible. Pensions are blowing up. Debt is horrible. It's the most regulated state (probably the most regulated in the world). Cost of living is horrible. Quality of life is ranked worst in the states. Cali is one the few states with unemployment above 4.0 now. Wealthy, business, and middle class are moving out, with immigrants moving in (you know the math here).

And then there's things we can debate (fed employees, contracts, etc.). All the things you want to normalize. Key is, if there were a split, the current exodus of wealth and business (which already has Cali freaking out) would turn into mass exodus. The loss of that revenue (business, and income tax) to an already terrible fiscal situation would be catastrophic. Those that are exiting are typically going to a red state (TX is the biggest recipient).

So now, Cali's tax base has taken a major hit, and that revenue is now going to the red side of the split. 25% of a depleted base doesn't mean much anymore. And that would be the situation in most blue areas where the fiscal health is poor, taxes are high, cost of living is high, etc..

Take a look at the below map (showing fiscal health), and do you honestly think the blue states (dem, not color on the map below) come out on top, or even close to even?

norcross-fiscal-rankings-map-mercatus-v1_copy_0.png
 

Irish YJ

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California has now passed the U.K. for the fifth largest economy in the world. New York has the thirteenth largest economy in the world. Combined they represent one-sixth of our Gross Domestic Product. Some of the world's top countries by economic measures have significant investments in California. With the impact of tariffs China with subsequent decrease in the supply of electronic components for one instance, trade may continue to decrease some for their economy. The costs of the electronics will increase and increase further should California not be part of the U.S.

Imagine Governors pursuing their own trade agreements.
Wary of Trump's Approach, Governors Seek to Forge Own Trade Agreements (Governing)

Certainly any nation would want to trade with the fifth largest economy in the world. If California were separate, they could provide other countries a trading source for their steel without Trump tariffs. California could then supply the revised U.S. with lower cost steel but at a profit for CA. It goes without saying that the largest banking and financial institutions with global implications reside in California and N.Y. California would also be free to set their own immigration policies, free of limitations on visas of high tech foreign workers instead of seeing them pack up and leave the U.S.

That assumes their economy holds with a split. And it would not. How long do you think banking and finance stay? How much longer does tech stay? Tech is already starting to bleed eastward.

Cali is already the most regulated. Can you imagine how much more if it split.
You have business and the wealthy already leaving. Add all the immigrants you want, that doesn't bode well for fiscal stability.

And here's the million dollar question to you Legacy, looking at the map i just posted, why are the bluest states all in financial jeopardy. Sure there's a few red states, but Cali, NY, IL, NJ, and most of the NE.... they are all in bad shape. Why is that?
 

NorthDakota

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That assumes their economy holds with a split. And it would not. How long do you think banking and finance stay? How much longer does tech stay? Tech is already starting to bleed eastward.

Cali is already the most regulated. Can you imagine how much more if it split.
You have business and the wealthy already leaving. Add all the immigrants you want, that doesn't bode well for fiscal stability.

And here's the million dollar question to you Legacy, looking at the map i just posted, why are the bluest states all in financial jeopardy. Sure there's a few red states, but Cali, NY, IL, NJ, and most of the NE.... they are all in bad shape. Why is that?

Because Florida is kidnapping their upper middle class.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Walther just published a new article titled "A new anti-Trump publication is the last thing conservative media needs":

What if we had a center-right publication, broadly in favor of globalized free trade and deregulation and hawkish on foreign policy, whose columnists really hated President Trump, even when he does things they otherwise agree with, like spit in Vladimir Putin's face?

But The Washington Post already exists, you say. Exactly. Which is why I cannot figure who the audience for Steve Hayes and Jonah Goldberg's new journalism project is supposed to be. According to Axios, the former editor of The Weekly Standard and the founder of National Review Online are "seeking investors" for "a reporting-driven, Trump-skeptical" conservative periodical.

Of course they are. "Generic white #NeverTrump conservative" is already the most overrepresented type in American media. There are approximately 200 of these people in the United States, and every single one of them has a column in a major newspaper and a book about why Drumpf is the logical and polar opposite of certain ideals supposedly embodied in whatever Tocqueville quotes their research assistants have just pulled up for them. They are the same people who have spent the last two decades insisting that all the things that actually keep people voting for the GOP against their own economics interests — opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage — are yucky. They are often referred to as "neocons," but this appellation is insulting to the legacy of Irving Kristol and Christopher Lasch. A better one is "metro-conservatives," i.e., think-tank grifters.

#NeverTrump types are desperate to convince readers that clichés about "entrepreneurship," endless war, and moaning about the Founding Fathers are still cool. But nobody listens. They had their shot with roughly 15 other candidates in 2016, and the American people rejected all of them, one by one. If your ideas are so bad that social conservatives would rather vote for a twice-divorced serial philanderer than pull the lever for any of the indistinguishable blue-blazered frat boys who are mouthpieces for them, maybe you should rethink what you're doing. If the Never Trumpers had gotten the candidate they wanted, Hillary Clinton would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

They know this. They also couldn't care less. Why should they, when the paychecks continue to cash? They have been insulated from the badness of their ideas for decades; this isn't going to change, probably ever.

Oddly, or perhaps not so oddly, even the microscopic niche that this new publication hopes to occupy is already filled by The Bulwark, a website originally founded as a #NeverTrump newsletter of sorts. Imagine a handful of former Weekly Standard staffers and John McCain campaign veterans banding together to explain why the only thing more dangerous than Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's imminent hamburger ban is Trump's latest mean tweet. A few liberals will offer them the usual deceitful clemency because they too dislike the mean orange man — and because they have already given up on all the gross causes that actually keep people in Kansas voting for the GOP.

The worst thing about The Bulwark and the unnamed Goldberg-Hayes project, though, is that they are both coming along in the middle of what would otherwise be a kind of renaissance for conservative media. Even though Trump's meaningful departures from GOP orthodoxy on economic and other issues have been all-too-infrequent, his presidency has changed the conversation on the American right. Conservatives have never been less deferential toward the free market or less satisfied with the proceduralist arguments that have lost them every major argument in the Supreme Court in the last 60 years.

American Affairs, which first appeared in the fall of 2016, is one of the most interesting magazines in the country, a place where populist nationalists, post-libertarians, Marxists, and Catholic integralists argue about every question imaginable. The new American edition of The Spectator brings an old-fashioned Fleet Street irreverence to its coverage of our politics that we certainly could have used during the Bush and Obama administrations. And The American Conservative, a publication in whose pages every major development on the American right of the last 15 or so years has been prophesied, is as good as ever. Under its new editor-in-chief, Jim Antle, an old comrade of Buchananism and contributor to The Week, it would be the in-flight reading of Air Force One if anyone still read things on Air Force One. These and many other conservative publications are interesting in ways that the Bulwarks of the world not only aren't but willfully refuse to be.

Among the many topics that Goldberg-style conservatives love to bang on about is the importance of what they call "charity" — not the religious virtue, mind you, but tax-deductible philanthropy, which they define as the opposite of government intervention in the economy. Why don't they take their own advice and retreat with their enormous earnings into quiet good works? If charter schools are really the best way to fix American public education, maybe they should go teach English or journalism at one. If private health-care nonprofits are a better idea than the guaranteed universal coverage available in virtually every other industrialized country, perhaps they should volunteer at one of them in a secretarial capacity. If they are so het up on the merits of fracking, why not go west? (I would suggest that these armchair warriors pay a visit to their local Marine recruiters, but it's too late for that, alas.)

The rise of NeverTrump publications that will be read by nobody reinforces the long-standing view that conservative media is a form of welfare. Here are people who are not clever enough to be academics, not disciplined enough to practice law or any other useful profession, with no particular skills except writing things that no one agrees with who have still ended up rich. No wonder they all believe in "charity."
 

wizards8507

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Legacy

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Wouldn't the neocons aka metro-conservatives be proud of these funding plans from the Administration?

Long-Term Implications of the 2019 Future Years Defense Program (CBO)

In most years, the Department of Defense (DoD) produces a five-year plan, called the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), that is associated with the budget it submits to the Congress. This report describes CBO’s analysis of the 2019 FYDP, which was issued in April 2018 and summarizes DoD’s expectations about the costs of its plans from 2019 through 2023. Because decisions made in the near term can have consequences for the defense budget in the longer term, CBO projected the costs of that plan through 2033.

DoD’s Budget Plans for 2019 Through 2023
The 2019 FYDP comprises DoD’s budget request for 2019 and its planned budgets for 2020 through 2023. The 2019 budget request called for $686 billion in funding for DoD. Of that total, $617 billion was for the base budget, which funds normal, peacetime activities, such as day-to-day operations and the development and procurement of weapon systems. The remaining $69 billion was for the overseas contingency operations (OCO) budget, which is intended to fund temporary, wartime activities, such as those associated with the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.(Appropriations enacted in September 2018 provide DoD with $616 billion in base-budget funding and $69 billion in OCO funding for 2019—approximately the same amounts that the Administration requested.) Adjusted for inflation, the total amount DoD requested (and received) for 2019 was 1 percent more than what was appropriated for 2018.

Under DoD’s 2019 FYDP, total annual costs (measured in 2019 dollars) would remain about the same over the 2020–2023 period as in 2019. However, DoD plans to make an "OCO-to-base" shift that would move the cost of many enduring activities currently funded in the OCO budget into the base budget. As a result, costs included in the base budget would be, on average, $47 billion higher per year (about $665 billion), and costs included in the OCO budget would be reduced by about the same amount. Over that period, DoD’s annual base-budget costs would be greater than in any year over the past several decades. DoD intends to offset any real growth (that is, growth after removing the effects of inflation) in its costs through 2023 with savings from improving the efficiency of its operations. However, plans in the 2019 FYDP for an increase in the number of military personnel may make it difficult to prevent real increases in spending over that period.

In several areas of DoD’s base budget, costs have historically grown more rapidly than DoD projected in the 2019 FYDP. For example, increases in the costs of military and civilian compensation are smaller in the 2019 FYDP than they have been in recent experience. Similarly, DoD has frequently underestimated costs in other areas, such as the acquisition of weapon systems. To assess the possible effects of such factors, CBO prepared an alternative estimate of the costs of implementing DoD’s 2019 plans that incorporates policies and patterns of growth that are more consistent with the changes in costs DoD has experienced over the past several decades. Using estimates based on those trends, CBO projects that total costs from 2019 through 2023 would be about $85 billion (or 3 percent) higher than indicated in the 2019 FYDP.

National defense funding for the 2019–2021 period is subject to caps set by the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) as modified by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018. The funding DoD requested for its base budget in 2019 (and the amount that was later appropriated) adhered to the cap for that year. However, the caps are significantly lower after 2019. Estimated base-budget costs in the FYDP would exceed DoD’s historical share of the caps by $129 billion in 2020 and $123 billion in 2021, measured in 2019 dollars. (OCO funding is not constrained by the BCA’s caps.)

CBO’s Projection of DoD’s Costs for 2024 Through 2033
On the basis of DoD’s estimates, CBO projects that the costs of DoD’s 2019 plans would increase steadily after 2023: The base budget would reach $735 billion (in 2019 dollars) by 2033, an increase of 11 percent in real terms over those 10 years. Several factors would contribute to that increase:

- The costs of compensation for military personnel, which have grown faster than inflation in 20 of the past 30 years;
- The costs of operation and maintenance (O&M), which have also grown steadily in real terms (after adjusting for changes in the size of the military) over the past several decades; and
- The acquisition of weapon systems, including several new types of aircraft and enough ships to increase the size of the Navy’s fleet, and the development of land-based weapon systems to fulfill the Army’s objectives for modernization.

About 25 percent of the total growth from 2024 through 2033 would be in military personnel costs, 55 percent in O&M costs, and 20 percent in costs to develop and purchase weapon systems.

Using estimates based on historical trends, CBO projects that DoD’s total costs from 2024 to 2033 would be about $395 billion (or 6 percent) greater than the amounts projected on the basis of DoD’s estimates. Total costs from 2019 through 2033 would be about $480 billion (or 5 percent) greater.

Uncertainties in Projections of DoD’s Plans
The possibility that cost estimates might be inaccurate is not the only source of uncertainty when projecting DoD’s long-term costs. The projections of base-budget costs in the FYDP and CBO’s extended projections through 2033 are estimates of the long-term costs of executing the specific plans that DoD articulated in its 2019 budget and supporting documents. If those plans change as a result of factors such as international events, Congressional decisions, and unanticipated advances in technology, DoD’s costs would probably change as well. Furthermore, even if DoD’s plans generally remained unchanged, many program-level policies that underlie DoD’s projections of its costs may not come to pass. For those reasons, CBO’s projections should not be viewed as predictions of future funding for DoD; rather, the projections are estimates of the costs of executing the department’s 2019 base-budget plans without changes.

Costs for OCO are highly uncertain because they depend on how ongoing conflicts evolve and whether new conflicts arise. This report does not include projections of OCO costs.

The bolded indicates that of our military expenditures 89% is for our base budget.

I did enjoy Walther's last paragraph.
The rise of NeverTrump publications that will be read by nobody reinforces the long-standing view that conservative media is a form of welfare. Here are people who are not clever enough to be academics, not disciplined enough to practice law or any other useful profession, with no particular skills except writing things that no one agrees with who have still ended up rich. No wonder they all believe in "charity."
 
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ACamp1900

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"If the Never Trumpers had gotten the candidate they wanted, Hillary Clinton would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."

That has to be the dumbest take I've read in months. Marco Rubio would have gotten 350 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton.

Smh, fun times,...
 

NorthDakota

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"If the Never Trumpers had gotten the candidate they wanted, Hillary Clinton would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."

That has to be the dumbest take I've read in months. Marco Rubio would have gotten 350 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton.

Where do you think he'd have won to pick up the extra votes? I like lil Marco. Just curious why you think that
 

wizards8507

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Where do you think he'd have won to pick up the extra votes? I like lil Marco. Just curious why you think that
Trump's states plus Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado. Donald Trump was the second worst presidential nominee in my lifetime.
 

Whiskeyjack

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"If the Never Trumpers had gotten the candidate they wanted, Hillary Clinton would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania."

That has to be the dumbest take I've read in months. Marco Rubio would have gotten 350 electoral votes against Hillary Clinton.

You edited this before I could respond. It originally suggested he should have won all those states as well, which is absurd. There's no reason to think a bunch of underemployed blue collar Midwesterners would have voted for Rubio. He supports all the same failed policies Walther is ridiculing here. The kingmakers in DC like him because they think the same stale bullshit in younger Latino packaging will be enough to tip the scales (despite the fact that identity politics has never worked for the GOP).

He's more pro-family than most Congressmen, and he's shown flashes of understanding the real divides in American politics, so I bear him no ill will. But confidently asserting that Lil Marco would have beaten Hillary is a stupid counter-factual. You could say the same of many other Republicans who failed to win the primary.
 

wizards8507

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You edited this before I could respond. It originally suggested he should have won all those states as well, which is absurd. There's no reason to think a bunch of underemployed blue collar Midwesterners would have voted for Rubio. He supports all the same failed policies Walther is ridiculing here. The kingmakers in DC like him because they think the same stale bullshit in younger Latino packaging will be enough to tip the scales (despite the fact that identity politics has never worked for the GOP).



He's more pro-family than most Congressmen, and he's shown flashes of understanding the real divides in American politics, so I bear him no ill will. But confidently asserting that Lil Marco would have beaten Hillary is a stupid counter-factual. You could say the same of many other Republicans who failed to win the primary.
My comment was not pro-Rubio, it was anti-Trump. Substitute Kasich or Christie or Romney or whoever you'd like.

Those rust belt voters didn't vote FOR Trump, they voted AGAINST HRC. Any generic Republican would have outperformed Trump in both the popular and electoral vote. The anti-Hillary vote wouldn't have changed and the GOP would have maintained the loyalty of traditional Republicans disgusted by Trump. Rubio's "New American Century" platform would have fooled the rubes just as well as Trump's race-baiting and tarrifs.

The article frames Trump's victory over a crowded field as if it indicates some kind of mandate against the establishment from GOP primary voters, but in fact it indicates the opposite. Trump would have lost to The Establishment (TM) 70-30 if it was one-on-one but the field was too big and the Establishment too incompetent to consolidate opposition so he was able to win 30-10-10-10-10-10-10-10.

The last competitive primary was Wisconsin, which Cruz won 48-35-14, meaning 65% of industrial Midwest primary voters were still anti-Trump even when he was the clear frontrunner nationally.

Competitive contests ended after Wisconsin, so Trump was able to jack up his national margin of victory in uncontested campaigns. Even then, he was unable to get to a majority.
 
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Irishize

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Where do you think he'd have won to pick up the extra votes? I like lil Marco. Just curious why you think that

HRC was the presumptive next POTUS. In hindsight, I think Dems assumed she would win so they didn’t bother to vote & the moderates whose votes were up for grabs decided that no way in hell would they vote for her.

Hasn’t it been reported that even Trump didn’t expect to win?At worst, it was viewed as a great self-marketing campaign for him. He’s a populist (not a conservative) which can succeed in either party if there’s a void to be filled. It’s funny how the Left tries to paint him as some right-wing caricature of the past who believes in everything that conservatives believe. I give him credit, he played the electorate & his competitors like a fiddle.

HRC has to be the worst POTUS candidate in our lifetime after letting BHO upset her in the primaries of 2008 w/ only one term in the Senate where he did little to nothing congressionally. Then she chokes the easiest win in history to a grifter who had impeccable timing.
Regardless of what one thinks about Trump, I was relieved that HRC lost.

I also think rational Dems need to distance themselves from the AOCs & other radicals of the Left who are promising free stuff to everyone and consequences to their party members if they don’t get in line. It’s a gift for the Republicans.
 
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Irishize

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My comment was not pro-Rubio, it was anti-Trump. Substitute Kasich or Christie or Romney or whoever you'd like.

Those rust belt voters didn't vote FOR Trump, they voted AGAINST HRC. Any generic Republican would have outperformed Trump in both the popular and electoral vote. The anti-Hillary vote wouldn't have changed and the GOP would have maintained the loyalty of traditional Republicans disgusted by Trump. Rubio's "New American Century" platform would have fooled the rubes just as well as Trump's race-baiting and tarrifs.

The article frames Trump's victory over a crowded field as if it indicates some kind of mandate against the establishment from GOP primary voters, but in fact it indicates the opposite. Trump would have lost to The Establishment (TM) 70-30 if it was one-on-one but the field was too big and the Establishment too incompetent to consolidate opposition so he was able to win 30-10-10-10-10-10-10-10.

The last competitive primary was Wisconsin, which Cruz won 48-35-14, meaning 65% of industrial Midwest primary voters were still anti-Trump even when he was the clear frontrunner nationally.

Competitive contests ended after Wisconsin, so Trump was able to jack up his national margin of victory in uncontested campaigns. Even then, he was unable to get to a majority.

IIRC, Trump’s percentage of votes in those swing states were similar to what both GWB & Romney received when they ran.
 

ACamp1900

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I get where wiz is coming from and thought it a bad take too,... I’m just tired of hearing about all the wrong problems,
 

Legacy

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You edited this before I could respond. It originally suggested he should have won all those states as well, which is absurd. There's no reason to think a bunch of underemployed blue collar Midwesterners would have voted for Rubio. He supports all the same failed policies Walther is ridiculing here. The kingmakers in DC like him because they think the same stale bullshit in younger Latino packaging will be enough to tip the scales (despite the fact that identity politics has never worked for the GOP).

He's more pro-family than most Congressmen, and he's shown flashes of understanding the real divides in American politics, so I bear him no ill will. But confidently asserting that Lil Marco would have beaten Hillary is a stupid counter-factual. You could say the same of many other Republicans who failed to win the primary.

I see politics divided into four parties - the Tea Party/anti-big government, establishment Republican, established Democratic, and progressive. We're just forced to choice between two candidates. It's symptomatic of the state of politics today that power is best achieved by further division pitting cultural differences by highlighting acts that are extreme and anathema to most bases. Power is gained and/or maintained by the establishment players in two of those four parties. It's illuminating to see a section of the population who values their moral and ethical beliefs and who attribute their worsening financial situations vote for a candidate who would seem to be so anathema to those values and whose success in business includes four bankruptcies, blatant self-interest and self-promotion, apparently a non-practitioner of any sort of religion and disgusting in his actions to his spouse and to other women. That voting base is also so vocal about the preservation of some of the biggest entitlement programs and parts of Obamacare that are funded by federal subsidies to provide affordable health care for their chronic diseases. I don't have time to address the discordance in the voting habits of the other side.

How the centrifical forces that benefit the establishment in both parties will change with a distributist economy pushes the limits of my insight. Walther regarded the American Conservative, which did have Distributism Is the Future

Much of this may also have been similar to Irishize's observations.
 
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Irish YJ

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I see politics divided into four parties - the Tea Party/anti-big government, establishment Republican, established Democratic, and progressive. We're just forced to choice between two candidates. It's symptomatic of the state of politics today that power is best achieved by further division pitting cultural differences by highlighting acts that are extreme and anathema to most bases. Power is gained and/or maintained by the establishment players in two of those four parties. It's illuminating to see a section of the population who values their moral and ethical beliefs and who attribute their worsening financial situations vote for a candidate who would seem to be so anathema to those values and whose success in business includes four bankruptcies, blatant self-interest and self-promotion, apparently a non-practitioner of any sort of religion and disgusting in his actions to his spouse and to other women. That voting base is also so vocal about the preservation of some of the biggest entitlement programs and parts of Obamacare that are funded by federal subsidies to provide affordable health care for their chronic diseases. I don't have time to address the discordance in the voting habits of the other side.

How the centrifical forces that benefit the establishment in both parties will change with a distributist economy pushes the limits of my insight. Walther regarded the American Conservative, which did have Distributism Is the Future

Much of this may also have been similar to Irishize's observations.

is anathema your intellectual word of the week?

your description of Trump could easily be applied to the Clintons. what is obvious, is that both candidates were horrible dishonest people. the difference is, most that voted for Trump had no dishonest illusion that Trump was some saint. they may like his bullish style, but they didn't like him as a person. they held their nose and voted for him. on the other side, most HRC voters bought into her fake righteousness and voted with pride.

and i'd say that the Left has a third party now. dem socialists.... they are beyond typical progressives.
 

IrishLax

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My comment was not pro-Rubio, it was anti-Trump. Substitute Kasich or Christie or Romney or whoever you'd like.

Those rust belt voters didn't vote FOR Trump, they voted AGAINST HRC. Any generic Republican would have outperformed Trump in both the popular and electoral vote. The anti-Hillary vote wouldn't have changed and the GOP would have maintained the loyalty of traditional Republicans disgusted by Trump. Rubio's "New American Century" platform would have fooled the rubes just as well as Trump's race-baiting and tarrifs.

The article frames Trump's victory over a crowded field as if it indicates some kind of mandate against the establishment from GOP primary voters, but in fact it indicates the opposite. Trump would have lost to The Establishment (TM) 70-30 if it was one-on-one but the field was too big and the Establishment too incompetent to consolidate opposition so he was able to win 30-10-10-10-10-10-10-10.

The last competitive primary was Wisconsin, which Cruz won 48-35-14, meaning 65% of industrial Midwest primary voters were still anti-Trump even when he was the clear frontrunner nationally.

Competitive contests ended after Wisconsin, so Trump was able to jack up his national margin of victory in uncontested campaigns. Even then, he was unable to get to a majority.

Yeah, Kasich would've undoubtedly won Ohio and Pennsylvania in landslides. Probably the other rust belt states too outside of Illinois. Kasich (or Rubio or anyone) also would've won in Virginia, etc.

That article was pretty insane, starting with them tongue-in-cheek calling WaPo "center right" and then pretending that that the overwhelming majority of the Republican base is Trump diehards when all relevant polling data points the other way... true #AlwaysTrump loyalists are at most 20-30% of Republican base. The vast majority of voters (and pundits and media and everyone else) is either ambivalent or anti-Trump.
 

RDU Irish

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I don't buy a lot of the theories of other Rs running away with the crown. They all would have played too nice. One of my biggest gripes about Republicans in general and especially the swamp class ilk is their refusal to get in the mud and really fight. Mittens and McCain were great examples of what a lot of folks are tired of - too busy trying to get along with everyone instead of really fighting for anything. And that is not to mention how they would have responded to whatever garbage would inevitably been thrown their way.

Also - rust belt has been ignored by Rs and taken for granted by Ds forever. Anyone really think Cruz or Rubio were going to walk in to Michigan or Wisconsin and take it straight to the Dem base? Not a chance. Immigration resonates in the midwest - nobody else has been serious about it for eternity. Tariffs are horrible policy but very popular in Rust Belt. He is making good on a lot of promises of high importance to the MI/WI/OH area and blue dog dems everywhere. Politically people underestimate these things, IMO.
 

Whiskeyjack

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Those rust belt voters didn't vote FOR Trump, they voted AGAINST HRC. Any generic Republican would have outperformed Trump in both the popular and electoral vote. The anti-Hillary vote wouldn't have changed and the GOP would have maintained the loyalty of traditional Republicans disgusted by Trump. Rubio's "New American Century" platform would have fooled the rubes just as well as Trump's race-baiting and tarrifs.

So the fact that Trump was the first candidate from either party in decades to campaign hard in those states by telling them: (1) their problems weren't the inevitable providential will of some invisible hand but the result of specific policy choices made by people who hate them; and (2) that he'd fight for their interests... was entirely irrelevant to his upset victory? You think the GOP was guaranteed to win, even if they had trotted out any empty bow-tied blue blazer to shill for further lowering the top marginal rate and endless war? That's a dumb take.

The article frames Trump's victory over a crowded field as if it indicates some kind of mandate against the establishment from GOP primary voters, but in fact it indicates the opposite. Trump would have lost to The Establishment (TM) 70-30 if it was one-on-one but the field was too big and the Establishment too incompetent to consolidate opposition so he was able to win 30-10-10-10-10-10-10-10.

That's not how primaries work. Even if that were true, it would be a damning indictment of the GOP leadership for allowing an allegedly "can't lose" party platform to be derailed by nothing but a crowded field. In reality, no one in that crowded field could distinguish himself because they were all reading off the same discredited script, while Trump wasn't beholden to it.

The last competitive primary was Wisconsin, which Cruz won 48-35-14, meaning 65% of industrial Midwest primary voters were still anti-Trump even when he was the clear frontrunner nationally.

True. The more religious and tight-knit a community, the less likely they were to vote for Trump. Unfortunately those places are few and far between these days, largely because of policies that the GOP has supported. This gets back to liberalism being parasitic on Christendom, undermining the very virtue it requires to work, etc.

There's no going back to the way things were before Trump. American "conservatism" has always been a weird alliance between capitalists, libertarians and hawks; there's no real reason for those three camps to be part of the same political coalition, and none of them are "conservative" in any meaningful sense of the word. This unholy fusionism needs to die, and that death looks like an inevitably at this point. What comes after it is an open question though.

Did you see the dust-up on Twitter recently about The Bulwark sending a hardcore abortion-supporter to cover CPAC? They got blasted for it, and most of the grifters Walther's article was criticizing came straight out and said they'd cut the pro-life movement loose in a second if they could afford to. I've got no use for these f*cking people.

Yeah, Kasich would've undoubtedly won Ohio and Pennsylvania in landslides. Probably the other rust belt states too outside of Illinois. Kasich (or Rubio or anyone) also would've won in Virginia, etc.

That article was pretty insane, starting with them tongue-in-cheek calling WaPo "center right" and then pretending that that the overwhelming majority of the Republican base is Trump diehards when all relevant polling data points the other way... true #AlwaysTrump loyalists are at most 20-30% of Republican base. The vast majority of voters (and pundits and media and everyone else) is either ambivalent or anti-Trump.

Did we read the same article? Walther is criticizing what passes for our conservative intelligentsia right now; not discussing counter-factuals about who could have beaten Hillary and how.
 

RDU Irish

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Yeah, Kasich would've undoubtedly won Ohio and Pennsylvania in landslides. Probably the other rust belt states too outside of Illinois. Kasich (or Rubio or anyone) also would've won in Virginia, etc.

That article was pretty insane, starting with them tongue-in-cheek calling WaPo "center right" and then pretending that that the overwhelming majority of the Republican base is Trump diehards when all relevant polling data points the other way... true #AlwaysTrump loyalists are at most 20-30% of Republican base. The vast majority of voters (and pundits and media and everyone else) is either ambivalent or anti-Trump.

I liked Kasich but he had no chance in the primary. Not convinced he would have had Wisconsin and he wasn't taking Michigan. He is too nice and his message was boring and would have only gotten more stale. People would have been too bored to show up and vote for him. Too nice to really take it to Hillary.
 

RDU Irish

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Oh yes, Whiskey. Good point on the endless war party that Trump was not anchored to.
 

Circa

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NorthDakota

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I can't be the only one that is finding her more and more attractive the more she proves to be literally dumb as shit... More than ever, "Welcome to the Thunder Dome"

I'm a sucker for latin women. Her eyes and chompers sorta scare me but....
 

Irish#1

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I can't be the only one that is finding her more and more attractive the more she proves to be literally dumb as shit... More than ever, "Welcome to the Thunder Dome"

Quit looking at the shiney car and pop the hood to see what you're really getting.

1. Extreme leftist
2. Charming smile only when you agree with her.
3. Bat sh!t crazy.
4. On a power trip to force her beliefs on you.
5. No logical or common sense.
6. Unwilling to meet in the middle.
7. Threatens to ruin peoples careers.
8. Thinks she's smarter than she is.
9. Would love to cut off your nuts and feed them to you.
 

Legacy

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Heather Wilson, Secretary of the Air Force, and Martha McSally, Sen. from Arizona both have backgrounds in the Air Force and have ascended to powerful political positions. After the Air Force Academy, both went in different directions. Wilson went to Oxford with a Rhodes scholarship and was an AF officer for seven years and with NATO, was on the National Security Council under Bush and in Congress from N.M. on a Committee in charge of Intelligence. General Mattis' first call to fill the Secretary position was to Wilson. McSally became a fighter pilot and was the first female combat commander and then also was elected to the House where she serves on the Armed Forces Committee.

After Mattis stepped down from Secretary of Defense, it was rumored that Wilson could take his place. Wilson and McSally have interacted and recently, Wilson went to Arizona where she was hosted by McSally, Sen Krysten Sinema (D) and Rep. Diane Lesko (R) touring Luke A.F. Base home of AF Fighter Wings including personnel who are training to fly fifth generation planes, the F-35. McSally as well as the other were active in obtaining funding for Luke, specifically for military construction as it expanded its role. Wilson long advocated for NM labs in Congress and became a lobbyist for them and Lockheed after her tenure in the House. Lockheed runs Sandia Labs in N.M. One of McSally's major contributors to her 2018 campaign for Senate was Raytheon, which is involved in space tracking for missile defense and land missile defense systems.

McSally is advocating for Luke that none of the military constructions funds budgeted for them be tapped for Trump's border wall, which she supports. With Trump announcing he wants to establish a sixth branch of the military for a Space Force, Wilson, who has been an advocate for including that within the AF, has disagreed. She reportedly angered Trump with a memo that such a separate branch instead of including it in the AF, would cost $13 Billion for the next five years, a some much larger than what he is saying. Reportedly in Foreign Policy, Trump was considering firing her for "with what is seen as a campaign to undermine the Space Force effort". Wilson, before Congress, testified that a sixth branch would jeopardize the AF's efforts to integrate space with other war-fighting operations.

Wilson and the AF have recently submitted appropriations requests for fiscal 2020 for 72 F-35s to replace aging F-15s, a fourth generation plane by Boeing. But the Pentagon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation Office was a key backer of the F-15X, a revised design, and was able to garner the support of the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Mattis has not been officially replaced. Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan was involved in the decision to buy eight of Boeing's F-15x with an expectation to buy eighty in the future. The last time the AF bought F-15s was in 2001. Lockheed, who was Wilson's major donor as noted, manufactures the F-35. Shanahan is a former Boeing executive. It is reasonable to assume McSally would want an expansion of the F-35s.

A Space Force would be a plum for any state and for their representatives in Congress to obtain. An independent Space Force vs including in the AF has brought Wilson into conflict with Rep. Mike Rogers (R, Ala) who may want a base for it at Red Stone Arsenal's Missile and Space Intelligence. Rogers, who is on the House Armed Forces Committee, has been rumored to be Mattis' replacement.

Wilson, who reportedly came from a "troubled" home regarding a step-father, and McSally, who yesterday reported sexual abuse and rape at the hands of a commander are advocates for reporting and disciplining sexual abuse in the military. Wilson was one of the first female graduates of the Air Force Academy. McSally will run in 2020 for the Senate to take John McCain's position. Wilson, a devout Christian, is a friend of V.P. Pence.
 
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Irish#1

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AOC finding herself on the other end of the poking stick.

"Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, one of the strongest advocates for reducing the influence of dark money of undisclosed origin on political campaigns, is under fire after her chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti, allegedly funneled more than $1 million from two political action committees into two of his companies, possibly in violation of campaign finance laws.

At this point, it is unclear whether this was unintentional or a purposeful attempt to break the law."
 
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