Path to the CFP?

[BleedingGold]

I love the BYU 5-0 record in the Pac-12 this year.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

We played five ACC teams this year: VT (6-6), UVA (6-6), UNC (6-6), FSU (5-7) and GT (3-9). Five other ACC teams (Duke, Miami, BC, Syracuse and Louisville) had similarly bad records, and wouldn't have moved the needle at all had we played them.

That leaves Pitt, Wake, NC State and Clemson has the only other teams that we might have played in conference that had better records than the ones we beat. Three of those (Pitt, Wake and NC State) would not have given us any more credit than 8-4 Purdue and 8-4 Wisconsin. Knocking off 9-3 Clemson is the only one that might have improved our resume, but: (1) the ACC wouldn't put us in their division if we joined; and (2) doubters could still refuse to count that as a "marquee victory" since they're down this year.

This isn't the year to argue for conference membership. The ACC did us no favors, so playing more of their teams likely would have weakened our resume.

Playing in the ACC championship vs Pitt or Wake would give us a better shot at the playoffs than staying idle at home. It would also be a better win than anything on our current resume. So even in a down year you are guaranteed to have a marquee match-up at the end to prove your mettle.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Funny what a year can do.... why I believe the pre-season rankings are bullshit.

Also could be argued ND being in the ACC elevates the conference perception and can impact silly things like preseason rankings (which shouldn't, but absolutely do influence CFP rankings).

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Playing in the ACC championship vs Pitt or Wake would give us a better shot at the playoffs than staying idle at home. It would also be a better win than anything on our current resume. So even in a down year you are guaranteed to have a marquee match-up at the end to prove your mettle.

It would be Wake, because the ACC would put us in the Coastal.

We'd presumably keep USC and Navy for tradition, Toledo as the "tune-up" game (lol), and then Cincinatti or Wisconsin as our big OOC game. We'd keep FSU as this year's cross-divisional game. So being in the ACC this year would have meant trading Purdue, Wisconsin/ Cinci, and Stanford for Pitt, Miami and Duke. That's clearly a downgrade in SoS.

Yes, we'd have the elusive 13th data point coming up in a conference title game against mighty Wake Forest, but that's not going to impress anyone. We'd still be in the same position of needing Georgia to beat 'Bama, and then at least one upset in the B1G, Big-12 or Group of 5. Absolutely not worth giving up our independence for such a marginal benefit.

 

[phork]

Not really a CFP thought. But how did this Utah team lose 3 games this year? It's hard to beat a team twice but they've rolled and smoked Oregon twice now.

 

[Fbolt]

The Irish need a messaging campaign for the CFB committee. Eye Test has been used against them more times than I can count-but it should be NDs message this year.

 

[Dale]

Not really a CFP thought. But how did this Utah team lose 3 games this year? It's hard to beat a team twice but they've rolled and smoked Oregon twice now.

Rising wasn’t the QB for the BYU game and came up short coming in for Brewer during the SDSU loss. After that it was only a Oregon St loss from WK 4 on with Rising as a starter

 

[Wild Bill]

Rising wasn’t the QB for the BYU game and came up short coming in for Brewer during the SDSU loss. After that it was only a Oregon St loss from WK 4 on with Rising as a starter

Yeah they were basically a different team on offense when they made the change

 

[ulukinatme]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

I was definitely all in for missing the playoff two weeks ago. Wanted to get a good NY6 bowl win and get that monkey off our back. Now...I think anything could happen. With no Alabama, Clemson, or tOSU in the playoff I feel like anything could happen. Georgia is still the favorite of course, but with the energy we've got right now and how pissed off this team was...let's win the whole fucking thing, don't even care anymore.

 

[ACamp1900]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

I don’t even want a bowl game,… why embarrass ourselves against UTSA???????….

 

[GATTACA!]

I was definitely all in for missing the playoff two weeks ago. Wanted to get a good NY6 bowl win and get that monkey off our back. Now...I think anything could happen. With no Alabama, Clemson, or tOSU in the playoff I feel like anything could happen. Georgia is still the favorite of course, but with the energy we've got right now and how pissed off this team was...let's win the whole fucking thing, don't even care anymore.

 

[IrishLax]

Gary Barta just said that they met last night and given the continuity + promotion of Marcus Freeman that they don’t see the coaching change factoring into ND’s evaluation.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

It would be Wake, because the ACC would put us in the Coastal.

We'd presumably keep USC and Navy for tradition, Toledo as the "tune-up" game (lol), and then Cincinatti or Wisconsin as our big OOC game. We'd keep FSU as this year's cross-divisional game. So being in the ACC this year would have meant trading Purdue, Wisconsin/ Cinci, and Stanford for Pitt, Miami and Duke. That's clearly a downgrade in SoS.

Yes, we'd have the elusive 13th data point coming up in a conference title game against mighty Wake Forest, but that's not going to impress anyone. We'd still be in the same position of needing Georgia to beat 'Bama, and then at least one upset in the B1G, Big-12 or Group of 5. Absolutely not worth giving up our independence for such a marginal benefit.

Marginal benefit of making the playoff or not? That seems more than a marginal benefit, especially this year with a down field. Face it, if we were in the acc this year we'd likely be 11-1 or 12-0 and have a great shot at the playoffs regardless of the other games today.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Marginal benefit of making the playoff or not? That seems more than a marginal benefit, especially this year with a down field. Face it, if we were in the acc this year we'd likely be 11-1 or 12-0 and have a great shot at the playoffs regardless of the other games today.

I just gave you a detailed explanation of how us being 11-1 in the ACC Coastal and about to face Wake Forest in the conference championship game would not make us any more likely to make the playoff than we are currently.

But you're all in on this "Independence BAD, Conference GOOD" thing. Fortunately Swarbrick and Jenkins have a better appreciation for our history and the advantages of independence than you do.

 

[IrishTusker]

The CFP is about to expand and the argument for joining a conference will get weaker at that point. 11-1 ND is almost always in an 8 or 12 team playoff. 10-2 ND might be in an 8 team playoff and is almost always in a 12 team playoff.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I just gave you a detailed explanation of how us being 11-1 in the ACC Coastal and about to face Wake Forest in the conference championship game would not make us any more likely to make the playoff than we are currently.

But you're all in on this "Independence BAD, Conference GOOD" thing. Fortunately Swarbrick and Jenkins have a better appreciation for our history and the advantages of independence than you do.

So you think 2 loss teams would be ranked ahead of us in that scenario?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

The CFP is about to expand and the argument for joining a conference will get weaker at that point. 11-1 ND is almost always in an 8 or 12 team playoff. 10-2 ND might be in an 8 team playoff and is almost always in a 12 team playoff.

Agree. This debate was about this year.

 

[Irishize]

Didn’t realize the CCG have held to chalk so often lately. Upsets can happen but I wouldn’t bet on them

Baylor vs Okie St? Oklahoma State wins easily as Baylor struggles w/ back up QB although having the Bears starting QB didn’t help much in their regular season matchup.

Iowa vs scUm? The score could be 31-0 or 3-0 but either way Iowa is on the losing end. They couldn’t score in a women’s prison w/ a fistful of pardons. Meatchicken living a charmed life this year. Reminds me what 2012 could’ve been for ND had Baylor or Oregon not choked and allowed Bama to sneak in the back door.

UGA vs Bama? UGA wins, Bama covers.

Cincy vs Houston? to me this is the one game most likely to be an upset. Ridder & Co need to quit turning the ball over.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I just gave you a detailed explanation of how us being 11-1 in the ACC Coastal and about to face Wake Forest in the conference championship game would not make us any more likely to make the playoff than we are currently.

But you're all in on this "Independence BAD, Conference GOOD" thing. Fortunately Swarbrick and Jenkins have a better appreciation for our history and the advantages of independence than you do.

It is an unknown but I think a 10-2 Alabama has a better chance if getting in ahead of 11-1 independent ND than 12-1 P5 conference champion ND. In the latter case it’s effectively zero, I think.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

So you think 2 loss teams would be ranked ahead of us in that scenario?

No. I think a 1-loss ND in the ACC Coastal, about to play Wake Forest for the conference championship: (1) is still ranked 5th or 6th; (2) still not in control of its own destiny, even with a win over WF; and (3) stil in need of help from some combination of Georgia, Iowa, Houston or Baylor to get in.

 

[wizards8507]

It is an unknown but I think a 10-2 Alabama has a better chance if getting in ahead of 11-1 independent ND than 12-1 P5 conference champion ND. In the latter case it’s effectively zero, I think.

We need to stop legitimizing Mercer and Murray State. Alabama doesn't have 13 data points any more than we do.

 

[BabyIrish]

We need to stop legitimizing Mercer and Murray State. Alabama doesn't have 13 data points any more than we do.

I don’t think anyone here is legitimizing those victories. I actually think most of us think that Alabama should be at its highest #4 if not worse. But it doesn’t matter what we think. The committee clearly think those wins matter and those close wins to terrible teams like Auburn and Florida are impressive.

 

[wizards8507]

I don’t think anyone here is legitimizing those victories. I actually think most of us think that Alabama should be at its highest #4 if not worse. But it doesn’t matter what we think. The committee clearly think those wins matter and those close wins to terrible teams like Auburn and Florida are impressive.

I disagree. The value of the conference championship isn't as a 13th data point, it's as a guaranteed data point against a quality opponent. Notre Dame's schedule SHOULD be good enough every year, but we have no insurance policy if USC, Stanford, and the entire ACC decide to suck at the same time.

 

[BleedingGold]

My dream finish:

Georgia, Iowa, Baylor, Cincinnati all win today.

1. Georgia
2. Cincinnati
3. Notre Dame
4. Baylor

I said this was my dream, screw Ohio State.

Baylor vs Notre Dame in the championship

 

[Dizzyphil]

Also could be argued ND being in the ACC elevates the conference perception and can impact silly things like preseason rankings (which shouldn't, but absolutely do influence CFP rankings).

The 'money' argument with the NBC contract bears no water either. ND FB made $22M as an Independent. The ACC FB teams divided up $497.2M or $43.6 each... almost double what the Irish pulled in. (based on 2019 Fiscal Year)

 

[irishff1014]

The 'money' argument with the NBC contract bears no water either. ND FB made $22M as an Independent. The ACC FB teams divided up $497.2M or $43.6 each... almost double what the Irish pulled in. (based on 2019 Fiscal Year)

So pretty much we take less money to have our own channel?

 

[Dizzyphil]

So pretty much we take less money to have our own channel?

I believe NBC would still want the money and work something out.... NBC got $43.6M out of the deal in 2019 - not bad for 36-ish hours of programming showing a football game.

 

[BleedingGold]

Doesn’t our independence also include unique control over the licensing and sale of our name?

 

[Armyirish47]

The 'money' argument with the NBC contract bears no water either. ND FB made $22M as an Independent. The ACC FB teams divided up $497.2M or $43.6 each... almost double what the Irish pulled in. (based on 2019 Fiscal Year)

Where are you pulling those numbers from?

 

[Dizzyphil]

Where are you pulling those numbers from?

https://www.espn.com/college-sports...on-2019-20-financial-year-increase-42-million

https://www.si.com/college/notredam...football-big-ten-independence-is-not-for-sale