Path to the CFP?

[Irish2155]

I’ve been preaching thus far to get in. Now however, I want it more than ever!!! Anyway or how, I don’t give a shit, just let these dudes dance.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

Michigan has a legit shot a winning it all. They are battled tested unlike the rest of those teams. Won in Madison, Lincoln and College Park and destroyed OSU. All the pressure is off them after slaying their dragon. Baylor could't run the ball against OkSt the first time they played, I don't think thats going to change. Cincy is our only hope as statiscally they match up with Houston, but schedule comparison shows Cincy much better. Hopefully the Fickel talk has everyone panicking and they lay an egg. I expect Alabama to lose.

Playing MichSt would be great if we could contain Walker (if he even plays). Their secondary is swiss cheese.

Just out of curiosity, if ND got to the playoff, who do you think would beat them? I think UM would be a good game this year. UGA would probably beat anybody at this point. However, I would put us over Cincy and OK State.

 

[arahop]

I could see them finding a way to get ND/Michigan and UGA/UC (or OKST) as the first matchup - hard to pass up.

Love our chances against skunkies.
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[ulukinatme]

People always say this but I'm not sure what it's grounded in. FEI and SP both would have had us as 3 point dogs vs KSU that season.

KSU wasn't as good as they looked. For one, the Big 12 competition is always a bit of a mystery since it's often been an offense favorable league. We would have matched up very well against either KSU or Oregon in the NCG, but unfortunately both lost in the same night and we drew Alabama instead. KSU was a paper tiger we could handle, and Oregon has notoriously folded against physical teams that punch them in the mouth like Stanford. Those two had one job, and they blew it!

 

[Wild Bill]

Finally, michigan may be a really good team and be able to beat alabama and georgia. I doubt it though. And taking care of business in the big 10 isn't that big of a deal. Outside of the midwest, people still don't really respect the conference. It's not because they don't respect good football, it's because the big 10 isn't that good.

Overall the BIG isn't great but BIG east, top to bottom, is the tough. And if Michigan can beat Iowa they will have wins over every team in the BIG worth a shit outside of Sparty. We can mock Iowa and Wiscy all we want but they are both probably finishing in second place in the SECE. It's just not a good division most years, and that's especially true this year. Georgia's best win is to nonconference clemson team that is probably the worst team they've fielded in over a decade.

I honestly think Michigan would beat up on bama if they played this weekend. They're a physical team and playing hot. Bama is barely getting by an Auburn team that lost to Penn State. Georgia will probably handle them if they play but I thought OSU would too. Makes me sick but I think those fucks have a shot this year.

Love our chances against skunkies.
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I like our chances more with Freeman than Kelly, that's for sure. Michigan is one of the hardest working and hitting teams I've seen this year. We would get throttled by them again if we didn't bring in some attitude. Almost a sure bet ND will come out with their hair on fire this year, regardless of who they play in a bowl.

 

[pumpdog20]

Call me crazy, but what if the CFP kept us at 6 because of losing BK? That way we couldn't get in if all the teams expected to win did. If they would have bumped us to 5 like they should, we were basically shoe ins. We were ahead of Ok St... is a win over Ok really worth jumping one of the hottest teams in the land? Maybe, maybe not. I got a good feeling come sunday, we'll jump back ahead of ok st regardless, and the explanation will be the coaching uncertainty was removed.

But more likely just high on MFMF euphoria right now.

 

[NDdomer2]

Call me crazy, but what if the CFP kept us at 6 because of losing BK? That way we couldn't get in if all the teams expected to win did. If they would have bumped us to 5 like they should, we were basically shoe ins. We were ahead of Ok St... is a win over Ok really worth jumping one of the hottest teams in the land? Maybe, maybe not. I got a good feeling come sunday, we'll jump back ahead of ok st regardless, and the explanation will be the coaching uncertainty was removed.

But more likely just high on MFMF euphoria right now.

i think they specifically said it had no impact on this weeks rankings but could in the future as it is part of their criteria. I would imagine its more of tie breaker of sorts. I.E. would you pick a 2 win Bama vs us without a Coach type thing.

Likely not to impact us now anyways and we still need some dominoes in front of us.

 

[BleedingGold]

I expect Oklahoma State to beat my second team Baylor (and I hate to say I don't think it will be close)
Georgia to hold the Alabama QB in check, just as Auburn did, and win a low scoring game
Michigan to beat an Iowa team that is still advertising for a consistent offense in the local paper
Houston to shock Cincy and beat them in what ends up being the best game of the weekend

The Committee:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan (what a f***ing joke)
3. Oklahoma State
4. Notre Dame

Everyone throws a fit we are in and they aren't. Crying for an offseason about the need to turn us into NFLite by expanding the playoffs. Georgia playing Oklahoma State in the Championship.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Call me crazy, but what if the CFP kept us at 6 because of losing BK? That way we couldn't get in if all the teams expected to win did. If they would have bumped us to 5 like they should, we were basically shoe ins. We were ahead of Ok St... is a win over Ok really worth jumping one of the hottest teams in the land? Maybe, maybe not. I got a good feeling come sunday, we'll jump back ahead of ok st regardless, and the explanation will be the coaching uncertainty was removed.

But more likely just high on MFMF euphoria right now.

You are crazy.

It is possible that the only reason we dropped behind Ok St. this week was of coaching uncertainty. But in the end it doesn’t make any difference. Ok. St. would’ve jumped us with a win in the Big 12 championship anyhow even if we had no coaching uncertainty.

We still need two losses from these teams this weekend.

Bama
Michigan
Cincinnati
Ok St.

 

[Free Manera]

This is the first time in history when basically everyone is rooting for ND to be in the playoffs because the story is too good.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

This is the first time in history when basically everyone is rooting for ND to be in the playoffs because the story is too good.

Yes. I've never seen so much support and genuine good will towards ND on /r/cfb. Everyone, regardless of team affiliation--even our rivals!--love Freeman, are happy for us, and rooting for us to make the playoff.

 

[rtrn2glory]

You are crazy.

It is possible that the only reason we dropped behind Ok St. this week was of coaching uncertainty. But in the end it doesn’t make any difference. Ok. St. would’ve jumped us with a win in the Big 12 championship anyhow even if we had no coaching uncertainty.

We still need two losses from these teams this weekend.

Bama
Michigan
Cincinnati
Ok St.

That is my thinking as well....I will not go into Sunday afternoon with much hope if we don't get 2 out of those 4.

 

[Free Manera]

Yes. I've never seen so much support and genuine good will towards ND on /r/cfb. Everyone, regardless of team affiliation--even our rivals!--love Freeman, are happy for us, and rooting for us to make the playoff.

Also on r/cfb people are going nuts over the MFMF intro video, rightfully so. ND is cool now it's weird.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Also on r/cfb people are going nuts over the MFMF intro video, rightfully so. ND is cool now it's weird.

I’m guessing it’s only temporary. If we get in the playoffs I’m assuming they will return to screaming about a 13th data point and ND being arrogant in not joining a conference.

 

[1rishftw]

Our schedule is awful. This is why we should join a conference. We'd still have a shot. Don't know if it would matter though, I see us dropping another game somewhere.

Yeah, but next year we play Ohio State, Clemson, BYU and UNC.

 

[phork]

Our schedule is awful. This is why we should join a conference. We'd still have a shot. Don't know if it would matter though, I see us dropping another game somewhere.

Why would ND join a conference now? When it expands to 12, and it will just a matter of when, ND will be in the playoff every year.

 

[NDPhilly]

Also on r/cfb people are going nuts over the MFMF intro video, rightfully so. ND is cool now it's weird.

ND hasn't been this "cool" in my lifetime. Feels so odd lmao/

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Why would ND join a conference now? When it expands to 12, and it will just a matter of when, ND will be in the playoff every year.

If we were in the ACC this year we'd have a game against Wake or Pitt this weekend with an inside track at a playoff birth. If it expands it makes less of a difference, I agree, but there is a possibility of autobids for the top spots which we could potentially be blocked.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Our schedule is awful. This is why we should join a conference. We'd still have a shot. Don't know if it would matter though, I see us dropping another game somewhere.

Phil Steele's Strength of Wins/ Pain of Losses metric puts us 4th, behind only Georgia, Okie State and Michigan:

 

[Irish#1]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Phil Steele's Strength of Wins/ Pain of Losses metric puts us 4th, behind only Georgia, Okie State and Michigan:

And yet there are no marquee wins on our resume. That matters.

 

[Free Manera]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

I want the Bucs.

 

[NDdomer2]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

My opinion wasnt so much about in/out it was more id rather have the NY6 WIN than a Playoff ass beating. If those were my options.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

And yet there are no marquee wins on our resume. That matters.

It only matters if the Committee decides to ding us for it. Regardless, "lacking a marquee victory" doesn't equate to "our schedule is awful."

Lots of usually strong teams were down this year, and chaos reigned. We came out the other end looking much better than most.

 

[NDdomer2]

It only matters if the Committee decides to ding us for it. Regardless, "lacking a marquee victory" doesn't equate to "our schedule is awful."

Lots of usually strong teams were down this year, and chaos reigned. We came out the other end looking much better than most.

will be interesting to see where we fall in this post CCG's

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

It only matters if the Committee decides to ding us for it. Regardless, "lacking a marquee victory" doesn't equate to "our schedule is awful."

Lots of usually strong teams were down this year, and chaos reigned. We came out the other end looking much better than most.

Perception matters. When the best win on the schedule is an 8-4 Wisky then we will likely be hampered by our schedule. For a playoff caliber team, what difference is there in beating VTech or Stanford vs beating Tulane or UCF? It appears not much.

Even in a chaotic year of upsets, in a conferece there will inevitably be teams which accumulate good records and thus thought of as being "good". A conference ensures you have at least a couple of those potential wins on the schedule every year. Whereas ND is at the mercy of a schedule crafted 5-10 years ahead of time.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I want to see this team in the playoffs. For all of you who would prefer a NY6, have you changed your mind, now that MFMF is the man?

My opinion wasnt so much about in/out it was more id rather have the NY6 WIN than a Playoff ass beating. If those were my options.

I think I have changed my mind. I was squarely in the NDomer2 camp given the very likely chance of a blowout loss to Georgia compared to a winnable NY6 game.

Part of the change for me is significant improvement since the bye week. Part of it does have to do with MFMF taking over. Most of which has nothing to do with how I think they will perform on the field, more about the potential storylines that would likely be pushed in the media regardless of if we win or lose. Those storylines are vastly different of what would be pushed if BK was still here.

Anything except a blowout loss to Georgia would have very positive storylines. Even a blowout loss to Georgia would seem to have minimal PR damage. If we were to beat Georgia, I can only imagine the storylines that would be pushed. The Legend of MFMF would be plastered everywhere.

If BK would still be here..... a blowout loss .... ND would be ridiculed unendingly. A close loss ..... BK can never win the big game. A win ..... obviously positive for the program, but nowhere near what we would likely see under MFMF.

Limited downside, huge huge upside, even if we wouldn't win the whole thing.

 

[NDdomer2]

I think I have changed my mind. I was squarely in the NDomer2 camp given the very likely chance of a blowout loss to Georgia compared to a winnable NY6 game.

Part of the change for me is significant improvement since the bye week. Part of it does have to do with MFMF taking over. Most of which has nothing to do with how I think they will perform on the field, more about the potential storylines that would likely be pushed in the media regardless of if we win or lose. Those storylines are vastly different of what would be pushed if BK was still here.

Anything except a blowout loss to Georgia would have very positive storylines. Even a blowout loss to Georgia would seem to have minimal PR damage. If we were to beat Georgia, I can only imagine the storylines that would be pushed. The Legend of MFMF would be plastered everywhere.

If BK would still be here..... a blowout loss .... ND would be ridiculed unendingly. A close loss ..... BK can never win the big game. A win ..... obviously positive for the program, but nowhere near what we would likely see under MFMF.

Limited downside, huge huge upside, even if we wouldn't win the whole thing.

I dont disagree with anything here really, we are playing with hosue money at this point. I would still choose the NY6 win over the CFP ass whooping because we will still get some unebleivable positive press for dealing with the change and still winning. There is certainly less negatives at play than the original scenario.

Better believe, I am certainly going to be hoping we backdoor in this weekend!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Even in a chaotic year of upsets, in a conferece there will inevitably be teams which accumulate good records and thus thought of as being "good". A conference ensures you have at least a couple of those potential wins on the schedule every year. Whereas ND is at the mercy of a schedule crafted 5-10 years ahead of time.

We played five ACC teams this year: VT (6-6), UVA (6-6), UNC (6-6), FSU (5-7) and GT (3-9). Five other ACC teams (Duke, Miami, BC, Syracuse and Louisville) had similarly bad records, and wouldn't have moved the needle at all had we played them.

That leaves Pitt, Wake, NC State and Clemson has the only other teams that we might have played in conference that had better records than the ones we beat. Three of those (Pitt, Wake and NC State) would not have given us any more credit than 8-4 Purdue and 8-4 Wisconsin. Knocking off 9-3 Clemson is the only one that might have improved our resume, but: (1) the ACC wouldn't put us in their division if we joined; and (2) doubters could still refuse to count that as a "marquee victory" since they're down this year.

This isn't the year to argue for conference membership. The ACC did us no favors, so playing more of their teams likely would have weakened our resume.

 

[Dizzyphil]

We played five ACC teams this year: VT (6-6), UVA (6-6), UNC (6-6), FSU (5-7) and GT (3-9). Five other ACC teams (Duke, Miami, BC, Syracuse and Louisville) had similarly bad records, and wouldn't have moved the needle at all had we played them.

That leaves Pitt, Wake, NC State and Clemson has the only other teams that we might have played in conference that had better records than the ones we beat. Three of those (Pitt, Wake and NC State) would not have given us any more credit than 8-4 Purdue and 8-4 Wisconsin. Knocking off 9-3 Clemson is the only one that might have improved our resume, but: (1) the ACC wouldn't put us in their division if we joined; and (2) doubters could still refuse to count that as a "marquee victory" since they're down this year.

This isn't the year to argue for conference membership. The ACC did us no favors, so playing more of their teams likely would have weakened our resume.

Funny what a year can do.... why I believe the pre-season rankings are bullshit.