Path to the CFP?

[Irishnuke]

This just isn't the year, guys. Even if we win out, which we probably will, we don't deserve to get in based on our shitty schedule. If we do somehow get in we'll get fucking killed.

 

[Dale]

GA is only dominant on D and is living off of turnovers. Their offense is not top 20. Defenses do win championships (just ask Oklahoma). I guess that also means no chance for us since our D especially sans KH has sucked against a good offense.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/tomfornelli/status/1453044074940964871?s=21[/TWEET]

That’s from 10/26. Saying they live off turnovers is thinking of yesterday only

 

[ab2cmiller]

When the most points that they have given up in a game is 13 points, not sure it matters.

 

[greyhammer90]

This just isn't the year, guys. Even if we win out, which we probably will, we don't deserve to get in based on our shitty schedule. If we do somehow get in we'll get fucking killed.

Agree with this. I get the desire to get in and add another notch to the belt, but we really aren't a top 4 team this year. Our schedule sucks and we've looked largely just OK against it. Sucks that prime Kyren and Hamilton came on a rebuilding year, but it is what it is.

 

[NDdomer2]

Pretty good write up on ESPN+ on the one loss teams. Shitty SOS isn't just an ND problem but there's only a very very slim chance we get in.

 

[rtrn2glory]

Hard pass on the playoffs this year. And I've never said that before.

Just give me a favorable Fiesta Bowl match up so I can see the boys win one here finally.

Be careful, I caught hell for saying this a week or so ago.

 

[Free Manera]

UGA would hold ND to <15 points. Take away Kyren and the intermediate stuff because Coan can’t throw deep balls. That’s it. That’s all that has to happen. If ND can’t out muscle you with the line and can’t rely on superior skill position athleticism there is no answer. You can’t beat great defenses without threats at every level.

I just don’t need to see this again. Win the Fiesta and that is progress. Build on it.

 

[notredomer23]

I'd rather be 5 or 6 at 11-1 so we can bitch about the 4 seed getting smoked and how ND would have put up a better fight.

 

[CHIDomer9]

If ever there was a year that ND wouldn't get demolished by all 3 of the other playoff teams it would be this year.

If UGA can beat Alabama and somehow OSU can stay stuck at 5, what other defense in the top 10 scares you besides UGA? I think every other team in the top 10 would be favored against ND, but it wouldn't look like Alabama (x2) or Clemson.

Making the playoff, regardless of result, will always be better than not making the playoff. With the very top of the CFB food chain being such a small group over the last 10 years, it would be a great thing for the program to reach its third playoff in the first eight years of playoff existence.

If the name of the game stacking good recruiting classes on top of one another until you reach the mountaintop, consider that UGA stacked 5 top 5 classes from 2017-2021.

 

[NDPhilly]

OSU may have put up a lot of "style points" over the last month against mediocre teams but realistically who is their best win? A floundering PSU team at home?

 

[Dale]

OSU may have put up a lot of "style points" over the last month against mediocre teams but realistically who is their best win? A floundering PSU team at home?

they’ll theoretically have Michigan, Michigan st and say Wisconsin by seasons end. They won’t be in when the rankings come out but pretty clear path to move up, which the committee knows

 

[Irish du Nord]

they’ll theoretically have Michigan, Michigan st and say Wisconsin by seasons end. They won’t be in when the rankings come out but pretty clear path to move up, which the committee knows

Are we confident they’ll win all three? I am not

 

[Dizzyphil]

Latest Bowl Projections based on this past weekend's games:

CBS Sportsline - Fiesta / KY VS ND
College Football News - Peach / MeeChicken VS ND
247 Sports - Peach / WF VS ND
Athlon - Fiesta / OK ST vs ND

 

[zelezo vlk]

No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

 

[Dizzyphil]

No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

I think because of each of the opponents listed - it will probably be totally someone else. KY is the only team with the schedule like ND to win out. OK ST has OK, and WF still has UNC and Clemson.... I find it hard that they beat both; could be wrong but UNC is bitter right now and the game is this weekend.

 

[Dizzyphil]

No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

And... Michigan is going to lose again... O$U curse will get'm

 

[ab2cmiller]

No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.

 

[zelezo vlk]

I am continually shocked that Irish fans would give the time of day to Michigan. Michigan's D is good, and without Hamilton the secondary is very vulnerable. I don't really like the matchup and I was against the series being renewed. 2014 was the perfect send off, you could not top that and it should never have been attempted.

 

[GowerND11]

Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.

 

[zelezo vlk]

You know, I can't understand some people's thinking on this site at times (still love y'all). But absolutely none of us are as dumb as the people on r/CFB I saw claiming that there's a chance that both Michigan State and Michigan can make the playoffs this year.

 

[NDdomer2]

I think because of each of the opponents listed - it will probably be totally someone else. KY is the only team with the schedule like ND to win out. OK ST has OK, and WF still has UNC and Clemson.... I find it hard that they beat both; could be wrong but UNC is bitter right now and the game is this weekend.

I believe Wakes game against UNC this year is considered NON CONFERENCE in an effort to schedule each other more. So Wake could lose that game and still be the ACC Champ/ representative in Fiesta

 

[NDPhilly]

ESPN's playoff predictor has ND with a 17% chance to make the playoffs right now, 7th highest of any team.

 

[GATTACA!]

ESPN's playoff predictor has ND with a 17% chance to make the playoffs right now, 7th highest of any team.

538 has us with a 34% chance assuming we win out. If Cincinnati loses a game that number skyrockets to 57%.

And much to the dismay of the pusses on here ESPN has our odds at 47% if we win out. No other results factored in.

 

[Wild Bill]

You know, I can't understand some people's thinking on this site at times (still love y'all). But absolutely none of us are as dumb as the people on r/CFB I saw claiming that there's a chance that both Michigan State and Michigan can make the playoffs this year.

Unlikely, yes. Not completely inconceivabe, though. MSU runs table and win the BIG. Michgian finishes with one loss, beating OSU and PSU along the way PLUS some combination of bama losing a second game, Oregon losing a second game, Wake losing, BIG 12 canibilizing each other and Cincy losing would probably put both teams into the playoff.

I think there's a good chance chaos ensues and it opens the door for them both to get in but here's where I agree with you - it's dumb to think Michigan will beat OSU, much less both Michigan and sparty will beat them.

For the same reasons, I think ND has a shot, and it'll probably happen to torture us. We could get a layup in the Fiesta bowl. Instead, we'll back door our way into playing Georgia. JT Daniels will be be rested and fresh off of throwing 300 plus and 4 TDs against bama. Their D will be foaming at the mouth with four weeks to prepare. ESPN will run story after story about Kirby Smart being a galaxy brain game planner after they beat ND but before they lose in the title game.

That's how it's going down. Book it.

 

[tussin]

For the same reasons, I think ND has a shot, and it'll probably happen to torture us. We could get a layup in the Fiesta bowl. Instead, we'll back door our way into playing Georgia. JT Daniels will be be rested and fresh off of throwing 300 plus and 4 TDs against bama. Their D will be foaming at the mouth with four weeks to prepare. ESPN will run story after story about Kirby Smart being a galaxy brain game planner after they beat ND but before they lose in the title game.

That's how it's going down. Book it.

This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.

 

[RDU Irish]

Two SEC plus B1G plus ??? - that last question mark is Cinci if they don't screw up with ND in position to sneak in if we win out and they stumble. Coming off of four straight 200+ yard rushing games will lend to the "ND didn't have their OL figured out but now they do" narrative that ignores the poo-poo defenses we face the next four games. I don't ever want to say I don't want to be in the playoffs b/c you have to be in it to win it - however, ooooff.

 

[Wild Bill]

Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.

Bc Harbaugh is mentally ill and he'd try running the against the '85 Bears, but ND tackles more like an 85 year old woman than it does the '85 Bears so they'd probably run for 300.

 

[Wild Bill]

This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.

I agree this is the weakest frontrunner I can remember but they are still very good and would be a matchup nightmare for ND.

I think the program is far better off playing in a very winnable fiesta bowl than they are getting a shot at Georgia, and if they can somehow pull that off, playing against atteam like OSU who can hang 40 on a defense when they're having an off night.

Get a big bowl win, lock up an elite recruiting class and ride the wave into 2022.

 

[Dale]

This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.

If we had last years OL I would agree. Georgia would devour Coan/Buchner. There’s no amount of quick you can get the ball out to compensate for how bad that matchup would be

 

[Free Manera]

I would just like a major bowl win one time. Haven't won a Fiesta/Cotton/Orange bowl since what, 93?