Path to the CFP?

[Bishop2b5]

I don't think Bama would be in unless it's a ~34-31 all timer. You don't have two losses and you're last impression is one of those and make the playoffs IMO.

You gotta remember, Bama with 2 losses is #4. They're going to just rematch them right away? No way.

I think the committee has some leeway to seed the four teams to avoid such an immediate or awkward rematch. Even if they felt Bama was #4, they could seed us at #3 to avoid the immediate rematch. At least that's my understanding.

 

[IrishRazor82]

I think the committee has some leeway to seed the four teams to avoid such an immediate or awkward rematch. Even if they felt Bama was #4, they could seed us at #3 to avoid the immediate rematch. At least that's my understanding.

But how would you justify that at #3 when half the committee likely doesn't think they should be in at all?

Only 2 loss team, coming off of a loss, and they not only get in but jump Cinci/ND/Ok State who either didn't play or just won - and all having 1 fewer losses?

 

[IrishRazor82]

I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?

 

[BabyIrish]

My gut is that Georgia wins, and fairly easy. If its a close Alabama win then expect them both in.

If Alabama Wins:

1. OSU
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Cincy/ND

If Alabama loses:

1. Georgia
2. OSU
3./4. Cincy/ND

Cincy could very well fall victim to the "on paper" or "better team now" arguement.

Handle our business with Stanford (Remember they KO'd Oregon) with style points, 49-0 sounds about right.

A one loss Big 12 champ probably jumps us. We need the winner of Bedlham to lose in the championship game. Still a lot of help needed for the Irish to get in.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Does Oklahoma get in if they win out?

 

[Rogue219]

I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?

No.

 

[Bishop2b5]

But how would you justify that at #3 when half the committee likely doesn't think they should be in at all?

Only 2 loss team, coming off of a loss, and they not only get in but jump Cinci/ND/Ok State who either didn't play or just won - and all having 1 fewer losses?

Not trying to justify anything. Just noting that IF that was to happen, I believe the committee has the power to seed teams to avoid such an immediate rematch.

 

[Rockin’Irish]

I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?

Slim to none…….Auburn lost their starting QB a week ago and they just lost to South Carolina. It would take a monumental upset at this point to knock off the Tide.

 

[IrishRazor82]

If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.

 

[irishtrooper]

I’m sorry but Bama (if they lose)just isn’t getting in over multiple one loss teams, particularly ones that won their CCG. It just isn’t happening. ESPN talking heads trying to will it into existence won’t help. If you remember in this year’s first rankings show they all stated that ND had no chance to get in…..Well, look at their position now (obviously a Cincy loss and/or Wiscy BT title would help greatly)… Anyway, Bama already gets waaaaaay more benefit from being Bama. Their resume isn’t that great, particularly when the teams they beat keep losing (even with SEC favoritism in committee rankings). I think Bama is a great program and deserves to get some extra rope, but this team does not deserve, nor will they be the first 2 loss team in get in the playoffs. They need even more chaos than ND/Ok/Ok St. If I’m a Bama-homer, I would be making the same argument and would convince myself that they will get in just like Bishop. ND needs to worry more about Ok St/Ok winning out and getting edged out than a 2 loss Bama with a so-so resume.

I think the push to include Bama with 2 losses will be just like the silly Michigan argument over ND in 2018 or TAMU last year……. It isn’t happening and part of the reason (assuming an ND win over Stanford) is ND’s brand. Let’s face it, this is a for-profit operation and if the argument makes any sense, the committee will include an arguably deserving ND. They need eyeballs and ND brings plenty. Cincy winning out isn’t ideal, but their win over ND might make it impossible to keep them out. They would prefer the brand names get in every year. Bama, UGA, Ok, ND, OSU, Michigan (yuck) and would welcome USC/Texas/etc if they ever get their programs going again.

Not trying to be disrespectful to anybody. I appreciate Bishop’s fandom and almost always agree with his opinions. If Bama got in without 1) winning their conference 2) winning their last game or even looking great in the game just prior to their loss 3)no real great win over a highly ranked top 5ish team 4) with 2 losses , it would cause such an outcry/uproar that there would be a lot of pressure to modify the system (think about the pressure that led to the BCS and then the playoff after that). I say all of this assuming UGA wins, OSU or Michigan (yuck) wins the BT, and some combo of Cincy winning out/Ok or Ok St winning out and of course ND beating Stanford. IF chaos ensues, Bama would be at the top of the stack of 2 loss teams

 

[ab2cmiller]

If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.

Agreed. I don't know if OK State or Oklahoma make it into the playoff, but I know they would definitely jump us.

Things I believe in order of confidence.

Oklahoma/Oklahoma St will jump us if either wins out.

pOSU's throttling of MSU will mean they likely jump Bama this week. If not this week, then certainly the next week if they beat Michigan. If Bama drops to 3, they are far far less likely to stay in the top 4 with a loss to Georgia. This is especially true given the concern of avoiding a rematch with Georgia. Only option would be to keep them at #3 which isn't going to happen.

We aren't jumping Cincy without them losing a game. We have had zero quality opponents the second half of the year. I guess the best would've been UNC who sits at 6-5. Yes we stomped on GT. We may stomp on Stanford. Yes our defense has looked very impressive the last 3 weeks. If Cincy wins out, including a quality win against a decent Houston team in the conference championship, it will be enough to hold us off.

 

[IrishRazor82]

If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.

And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...

 

[NDohio]

And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...

If OK defeats OK St, don't they play each other again for the championship? That would be OK beating OK St and then hopeful they turn around and have OK St defeat OK in the championship game.

 

[phork]

And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...

We need OKSt and OU to get another loss. If OU wins and drops a 2nd L on OSU, it doesn't matter what Baylor does as OSU beat Baylor and OSU would play OU in the championshop and hopefully deliever a second L to OU. If OU loses and Baylor wins then it would be OSU and Baylor. With Baylor hopefully beating OSU in round 2.

 

[IrishRazor82]

Got it - makes sense. Go OU!

 

[EvilleIrish]

Not sure if media is to be relied upon, but most outlets don't seem too confident in us making it in.

 

[Wild Bill]

We need OKSt and OU to get another loss. If OU wins and drops a 2nd L on OSU, it doesn't matter what Baylor does as OSU beat Baylor and OSU would play OU in the championshop and hopefully deliever a second L to OU. If OU loses and Baylor wins then it would be OSU and Baylor. With Baylor hopefully beating OSU in round 2.

Key metrics before last Saturday's games:
Sooners ranked #13 at 9-1 - SOS: 109, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 15.5

Okie State ranked #9 at 9-1 - SOS: 43, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 15.8

ND ranked #8 at 9-1 SOS: 38, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 13.8

Sooners SOS will be better if they can win out but it'll probably be far lower than ND's with a very similar game control.

Okie State is the biggest threat to jump ND, IMO. If they can win out, they'll probalby have better numbers in every category above.

The best scenario would be both OK teams losing but I'm not sure we need the Sooners to lose.

 

[IrishRazor82]

Can we all admit the benefit of not having a conference championship game is pretty wild?

I do think ND should join a conference, but it's an insane benefit currently. The ACC opponents BYE weeks along with the future talk about requiring ND to play during the CFB playoff BYE week, even if they're #1, is insane. I also think it'd be fun to be in these conference title games, but that's just me. Also bored with always playing Stanford/USC/Navy. Rotate the Cali teams and consider dropping Navy or playing them every other as well.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Can we all admit the benefit of not having a conference championship game is pretty wild?

I do think ND should join a conference, but it's an insane benefit currently. The ACC opponents BYE weeks along with the future talk about requiring ND to play during the CFB playoff BYE week, even if they're #1, is insane. I also think it'd be fun to be in these conference title games, but that's just me. Also bored with always playing Stanford/USC/Navy. Rotate the Cali teams and consider dropping Navy or playing them every other as well.

It’s a benefit with the exception of our ability to pass Cincy. If we had a conference championship game we might have a legitimate chance to pass them.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Not sure if media is to be relied upon, but most outlets don't seem too confident in us making it in.

Stewart Mandel seems to think even a 2 loss Alabama is ahead of ND. I don't think that's going to prove correct.

OTOH, I'm pretty confident ND will be passed by a 1 loss Big 12 champion and will stay behind any and all 1 loss SEC teams.

 

[Rogue219]

So UGA has to beat Bama by two scores or more I think. Whoever wins Bedlam then needs to lose the Conference Championship Game.

Dream scenario for me is Michigan beats Ohio State somehow then loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Hilarity and chaos then ensue.

 

[phork]

If Alabama loses to Georgia, regardless of score, and assuming that the CFP gang is going to move OSU ahead of Alabama they have no reasonable basis to keep Alabama in the top4 when its all said and done. You have an undefeated team, and by the looks of it Cincy will run the table and plenty of 1 loss candidates.

And if they expand the playoff, which by all accounts it looks like its happening, ND won't need to join a conference. But I say just do a 16 team. Bye weeks for teams 1 to 4 are bullcrap. Do 8 or 16.

 

[RDU Irish]

So UGA has to beat Bama by two scores or more I think. Whoever wins Bedlam then needs to lose the Conference Championship Game.

Dream scenario for me is Michigan beats Ohio State somehow then loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Hilarity and chaos then ensue.

Bama, Cincy, Michigan and OSU all have their fate in their own hands, IMO. Win out and they are in. Mich/OSU are mutually exclusive but UGA/Bama are not, IMO. UGA probably in with a loss to Bama but not vice versa. Cincy's second toughest game of the year is their CCG vs Houston - I had hoped SMU would give Cincy a run for their money but they got shellacked. I have less confidence in Houston giving them fits after seeing SMU emasculated.

Really appreciate Oregon removing themselves from the discussion. We just need two more to follow suit and we are solid. I don't buy the Big 12 sneaking in - that conference is trash even if they manage to produce a one loss champ. Committee wants ND - I expect some mental gymnastics to validate it if necessary. Fully expect Cinci to be the sacrificial lamb if they need one.

 

[irishtrooper]

Stop listening to Espn! Bama WILL NOT get in (barring chaos) with a second loss. It isn’t happening.

 

[Dizzyphil]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1462864710106157056[/TWEET]

 

[notredomer23]

I weirdly think 1 loss OK State would jump us but 1 loss Oklahoma would not. 1 loss Oklahoma's best win would be over the same team twice. 1 loss Oklahoma State's best wins would be Oklahoma and Baylor twice. The committee hates this Oklahoma team and they haven't made that a secret.

 

[Irish#1]

Dakich finally with a reasonable take.

 

[Irish2155]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1462864710106157056[/TWEET]

Well, that settles it...if DD says their is a path, then it must not be true. Off the the Beef O'Brady bowl it is....

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I weirdly think 1 loss OK State would jump us but 1 loss Oklahoma would not. 1 loss Oklahoma's best win would be over the same team twice. 1 loss Oklahoma State's best wins would be Oklahoma and Baylor twice. The committee hates this Oklahoma team and they haven't made that a secret.

I still think one loss OU would jump us; Oklahoma St is no slouch and if you beat them twice, that's saying a lot. That's a better win than anything we have on our resume.

I see some scenarios where we get in, but I don't think a one loss Bama and One loss Big12 Champ is one of them. Our second best win is Purdue....

 

[IRISHMAN]

I still think one loss OU would jump us; Oklahoma St is no slouch and if you beat them twice, that's saying a lot. That's a better win than anything we have on our resume.

I see some scenarios where we get in, but I don't think a one loss Bama and One loss Big12 Champ is one of them. Our second best win is Purdue....

hoping that baylor will beat the winner of this weeks OU-OSU matchup in the big12 championship game.