Offensive Coordinator Search

[BeauBenken]

Alright so I ran some things because this thread is becoming annoying...but I thought for a second that Koon might be right.

I didn't do this based on YPA but rather defensive passing efficiency (so the overall quality of pass defense) and Ian's QBR.

The average pass defense efficiency ranking of the teams in the first 7 games was 77th, and in the last 6 games it was 71st. Book's average QBR in the first 7 games was 155.9 and his average in the last 6 games was 164.42.

So there was some improvement in the second half of the season.

I would post the whole thing here but the formatting screws up copying it from the google spreadsheet.

 

[IrishLion]

Can we get a separate thread for Koons molten hot takes and leave the actual OC discussion in here?

That's the problem... there is nothing to discuss!

My theory is that programs with vacancies AND coaches potentially filling vacancies were waiting on the conclusion of the CFP to see how the dust is going to settle once the on-field stuff is done.

My fan-fiction is that ND is going to hire Joe Brady to work with Ian Book the way he worked with Joe Burrow, but Brady wouldn't accept an interview until after the CFP (even though he said he's staying at LSU).

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Alright so I ran some things because this thread is becoming annoying...but I thought for a second that Koon might be right.

I didn't do this based on YPA but rather defensive passing efficiency (so the overall quality of pass defense) and Ian's QBR.

The average pass defense efficiency ranking of the teams in the first 7 games was 77th, and in the last 6 games it was 71st. Book's average QBR in the first 7 games was 155.9 and his average in the last 6 games was 164.42.

So there was some improvement in the second half of the season.

I would post the whole thing here but the formatting screws up copying it from the google spreadsheet.

Beau:

QBR is already opponent adjusted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

There are six steps to building QBR:
Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA)
Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured.
If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass
There is a discount on garbage time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game.
Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa.
QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average.

 

[TheRealLynch51]

That's the problem... there is nothing to discuss!

My theory is that programs with vacancies AND coaches potentially filling vacancies were waiting on the conclusion of the CFP to see how the dust is going to settle once the on-field stuff is done.

My fan-fiction is that ND is going to hire Joe Brady to work with Ian Book the way he worked with Joe Burrow, but Brady wouldn't accept an interview until after the CFP (even though he said he's staying at LSU).

Big if true

 

[BeauBenken]

Beau:

QBR is already opponent adjusted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

Well clearly I'm not a big stats guy. I didn't realize they were opponent adjusted. hah

But, I think the defensive passing efficiency point is still notable. Koon has been arguing that we played terrible defenses in the second half of the season, but we played a better passing defense on average.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

That's the problem... there is nothing to discuss!

My theory is that programs with vacancies AND coaches potentially filling vacancies were waiting on the conclusion of the CFP to see how the dust is going to settle once the on-field stuff is done.

My fan-fiction is that ND is going to hire Joe Brady to work with Ian Book the way he worked with Joe Burrow, but Brady wouldn't accept an interview until after the CFP (even though he said he's staying at LSU).

Yeah, I think announcements have held off for the CFP.

The SI article (yeah, I know) on Brady says he's signed a letter of agreement but not yet the full contract. I don't know what that means so far as binding him to LSU but it strongly suggests his intention is to stay there.

At this point, I'm assuming Moorhead sees a better fit at Oregon because why wouldn't he? I'm also not sure I should be unhappy about that. I don't think ND needs a system guy as much as they need somebody who can adapt to personnel. I would love an NFL OC (Monken) for exactly that reason.

 

[TheRealLynch51]

Yeah, I think announcements have held off for the CFP.

The SI article (yeah, I know) on Brady says he's signed a letter of agreement but not yet the full contract. I don't know what that means so far as binding him to LSU but it strongly suggests his intention is to stay there.

At this point, I'm assuming Moorhead sees a better fit at Oregon because why wouldn't he? I'm also not sure I should be unhappy about that. I don't think ND needs a system guy as much as they need somebody who can adapt to personnel. I would love an NFL OC (Monken) for exactly that reason.

Inb4 people start hating the Monken hire as Kelly getting the boys back together.

 

[koonja]

Alright so I ran some things because this thread is becoming annoying...but I thought for a second that Koon might be right.

I didn't do this based on YPA but rather defensive passing efficiency (so the overall quality of pass defense) and Ian's QBR.

The average pass defense efficiency ranking of the teams in the first 7 games was 77th, and in the last 6 games it was 71st. Book's average QBR in the first 7 games was 155.9 and his average in the last 6 games was 164.42.

So there was some improvement in the second half of the season.

I would post the whole thing here but the formatting screws up copying it from the google spreadsheet.

None of the stats I posted were wrong. You moved from 6 to 5 games when you dropped passing yards for YPA because VT drastically affects both metrics. All numbers I put together were for Book (because that’s all that’s relevant) and were 100% accurate. Sorry this isn’t working out for you. You’ll get em next time.

This is so hypocritical.

Here's your statement: "Then don't use just one stat, look at the entire body of work. And if you are going to use just one, use a metric that looks at a combination of efficiency and production. Like, Yds/Att. And, if you do think Yds/att is more important then you'd realize we saw a significant improvement in that metric."

No where did you say "I'm randomly excluding 1 of the final 6 games", nor did you say "I'm not counting Phil's 8 throws".

So I ran the numbers for that metric first 7 games (including Michigan) against everything after Michigan. It's 8.3 to 7.6.

So tell me, which games do you want to cherry pick out, or what plays do you not want to count so you can reverse engineer your statement into the truth?

LuckyLucci, 1/14/2020: "It's the epitome of cherry picking information to fit a narrative."

 

[IrishLax]

Beau:

QBR is already opponent adjusted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating

Yeah, BeauBenken was listing quarterback rating NOT QBR in his post. Which is confusing, because he said QBR. But I know he meant rating because QBR only goes to 100 lol

So to clarify -- in the last 5 games where Rees had input in the passing game Ian Book had a QBR average of 84.8... this would've put him 7th in the country, just behind Trevor Lawrence.

Over his first 8 games, he had a QBR of average of 66.9... which would've put him 47th in the country. So he was borderline elite with Rees coordinating the passing game, and he was a low-end P5 caliber player operating under Long's guidance.

I can't believe we still have some people truthering this.

 

[koonja]

Alright so I ran some things because this thread is becoming annoying...but I thought for a second that Koon might be right.

I didn't do this based on YPA but rather defensive passing efficiency (so the overall quality of pass defense) and Ian's QBR.

The average pass defense efficiency ranking of the teams in the first 7 games was 77th, and in the last 6 games it was 71st. Book's average QBR in the first 7 games was 155.9 and his average in the last 6 games was 164.42.

So there was some improvement in the second half of the season.

I would post the whole thing here but the formatting screws up copying it from the google spreadsheet.

Reps to Beau for being the youngest mod yet having the biggest balls.

 

[BeauBenken]

Ah ha! So I'm dumb still, but not in the way we originally thought! Lol

Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

 

[Luckylucci]

Yeah, BeauBenken was listing quarterback rating NOT QBR in his post. Which is confusing, because he said QBR. But I know he meant rating because QBR only goes to 100 lol

So to clarify -- in the last 5 games where Rees had input in the passing game Ian Book had a QBR average of 84.8... this would've put him 7th in the country, just behind Trevor Lawrence.

Over his first 8 games, he had a QBR of average of 66.9... which would've put him 47th in the country. So he was borderline elite with Rees coordinating the passing game, and he was a low-end P5 caliber player operating under Long's guidance.

I can't believe we still have some people truthering this.

I was always under the impression it was the final 5 and some of the VT game but have no idea how to quantify that.

Undoubtedly the numbers that matter, which are Book's, got considerably better down the stretch. Navy and ISU were also undoubtedly the two best offensive performances of the year. And, both had quality defensive ratings going in.

 

[irishnd31]

Don't know that I would ever put the words "young" and "balls" in the same sentence. Does that put you on some sort of watch list?

 

[koonja]

So do the mods have a source on why they're saying Rees called plays after Michigan?

I've been adamant I didn't buy that.

Mike Frank minutes ago:

"I've heard this from many people. It's a bad information that suddenly became known as fact, and it's not true.

I'm 100 percent certain Rees didn't call plays until the bowl game."

 

[koonja]

This is incorrect. Lax was the first to come out and say right after the Navy game that he was told from a source Rees was in charge. Certainly it’s internet opinion but it’s not this random made up opinion. It comes from a poster who’s proved credible on this site.

See above post.

 

[NDdomer2]

i guess i dont care if it was rees or not, there was a significant change in our passing game after michigan. If it was just Kelly telling Long to figure it the fuck out then so be it but it was much better and theres no denying that.

As to the next OC. Does anyone think, that there being no history of previous coordinators going on to bigger/better things, could be hurting our ability to attract the proven talent everyone really wants?

I was just talking with a friend and he was telling me he sees no reason why Moorehead would take the job.

 

[KizerWilhelm]

For all the hand-wringing about Tommy, what's the read on Monken? It's not like his offenses at Tampa were lights out and the Browns just fired him. Are we just assuming that a bad NFL OC is still likely > a solid college OC?

 

[ThePiombino]

i guess i dont care if it was rees or not, there was a significant change in our passing game after michigan. If it was just Kelly telling Long to figure it the fuck out then so be it but it was much better and theres no denying that.

As to the next OC. Does anyone think, that there being no history of previous coordinators going on to bigger/better things, could be hurting our ability to attract the proven talent everyone really wants?

I was just talking with a friend and he was telling me he sees no reason why Moorehead would take the job.

Plenty of Kelly OCs have gone on to HC positions. Whether or not they were successful can't possibly be a reflection on Kelly. Not every coordinator hits as a HC. I would imagine many more don't than do in general. I doubt this is a deterrent for potential applicants.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

 

[Luckylucci]

i guess i dont care if it was rees or not, there was a significant change in our passing game after michigan. If it was just Kelly telling Long to figure it the fuck out then so be it but it was much better and theres no denying that.As to the next OC. Does anyone think, that there being no history of previous coordinators going on to bigger/better things, could be hurting our ability to attract the proven talent everyone really wants?

I was just talking with a friend and he was telling me he sees no reason why Moorehead would take the job.

Agreed, big picture doesn't really matter. But, I think to say Book's ascension we witnessed through the later half of the year which ended with a crescendo performance against the 22nd ranked defense, when Rees was calling plays, is just a coincidence. Seems like a reach. Something changed and it certainly had to do with Rees. Hence two P5 programs taking time to interview him for vacant OC positions. With one of those programs being a top 5 team.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Yeah, I think announcements have held off for the CFP.

The SI article (yeah, I know) on Brady says he's signed a letter of agreement but not yet the full contract. I don't know what that means so far as binding him to LSU but it strongly suggests his intention is to stay there.

At this point, I'm assuming Moorhead sees a better fit at Oregon because why wouldn't he? I'm also not sure I should be unhappy about that. I don't think ND needs a system guy as much as they need somebody who can adapt to personnel. I would love an NFL OC (Monken) for exactly that reason.

My understanding on Brady was that his "agreement" was that he wouldn't move on to another CFB job. That left the NFL open. Don't fact check me though as I may be incorrect.

 

[koonja]

Agreed, big picture doesn't really matter. But, I think to say Book's ascension we witnessed through the later half of the year which ended with a crescendo performance against the 22nd ranked defense, when Rees was calling plays, is just a coincidence. Seems like a reach. Something changed and it certainly had to do with Rees. Hence two P5 programs taking time to interview him for vacant OC positions. With one of those programs being a top 5 team.

Based on what? It's confirmed he wasn't calling plays until the bowl game.

And he won't get offered either OC job.

Perhaps it had to do with the team locking in after the biggest embarassment since 2017. Perhaps Rees locked in to give him a chance at the NFL after the embarassment. Perhaps the team got better as the November approached which is Kelly's goal. Perhaps it was playing 5 loss teams.

How can you pinpoint one person or thing and use the word "certainly".

This pushing of baseless claims with no proof has to stop.

 

[Free Manera]

Based on what? It's confirmed he wasn't calling plays until the bowl game.

And he won't get offered either OC job.

Perhaps it had to do with the team locking in after the biggest embarassment since 2017. Perhaps Rees locked in to give him a chance at the NFL after the embarassment. Perhaps the team got better as the November approached which is Kelly's goal. Perhaps it was playing 5 loss teams.

How can you pinpoint one person or thing and use the word "certainly".

Per II, you are correct about Oregon. Cristobal has no interest in a first time playcaller and the interview was probably just an exercise.

Hopefully you are right about ND too, because it means Moorhead or Monken is on board.

 

[T Town Tommy]

For all the hand-wringing about Tommy, what's the read on Monken? It's not like his offenses at Tampa were lights out and the Browns just fired him. Are we just assuming that a bad NFL OC is still likely > a solid college OC?

His two or so years at Okie St is pretty good evidence that he would be pretty solid as a college OC. Don't know much about his recruiting abilities however. But as an OC... I think he would be a solid hire for Notre Dame.

 

[koonja]

Per II, you are correct about Oregon. Cristobal has no interest in a first time playcaller and the interview was probably just an exercise.

Hopefully you are right about ND too, because it means Moorhead or Monken is on board.

I know Oregon wouldn't hire him. I thought he had another interview with a 2nd team but it must just be ND.

In that case he might technically get one of the jobs, but let's hope it's Moorehead.

 

[Free Manera]

I know Oregon wouldn't hire him. I thought he had another interview with a 2nd team but it must just be ND.

In that case he might technically get one of the jobs, but let's hope it's Moorehead.

He interviewed with Northwestern awhile ago I don't know if that is what you are thinking of.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

For all the hand-wringing about Tommy, what's the read on Monken? It's not like his offenses at Tampa were lights out and the Browns just fired him. Are we just assuming that a bad NFL OC is still likely > a solid college OC?

NFL experience is good (IMO) because he starts with a massive playbook and has to boil things down to suit what he has on hand. So if he's willing to do the NFL thing then I think he at least has some experience adapting to the talent rather than vice versa.

He also has some excellent college experience. He was the passing game coordinator at Oklahoma State from 2002-2004 and returned there to serve as the outright OC and QB coach in 2011-2012. After that he spent three years with Southern Miss (going 1-11, 3-9, 9-5 and scoring a lot of points though I don't know how to put that in context). So he's got a nice track record of college success and I think ND needs a new OC to bring more of an NFL mentality to inheriting what is on hand.

The downside is that he is probably just a rental but I think he's the kind of rental that fits. The risk of a system guy coming in to be your rental is you get a reset period right at the beginning and you're maybe in a worse than usual spot if/when he leaves because it's harder to keep the thing going without him.

 

[General Colon Bowel]

For all the hand-wringing about Tommy, what's the read on Monken? It's not like his offenses at Tampa were lights out and the Browns just fired him. Are we just assuming that a bad NFL OC is still likely > a solid college OC?

Oklahoma State had its two highest scoring seasons of the Mike Gundy era (15 seasons) with Monken as OC.

Southern Miss went from 112th to 13th in points per game from the year before Monken became HC to the his last year as HC.

No one really knows about his recruiting prowess or his desire to stick in one place/stay an OC, but his collegiate results speak for themselves

 

[BabyIrish]

See above post.

I never said it was a "true" rumor. But it was more than just some random dude bringing it up. Lax is a legit and respected poster on this board who went to ND and has ties to the program. Quite frankly, I could care less whether its true or not. None of us on this board have any ability to sway the decision. Whatever happens, happens.

 

[IrishLax]

See above post.

First of all, here's what I actually said. And I said it in early November a month before it was reported anywhere that Long was going to be fired:

I don’t have this 100% confirmed, but I think Tommy has been calling or at least has had a hand in calling plays the past two weeks. I was told after Michigan that Long might lose playcalling duties because it was a “forgone conclusion” he would not be back next year and there was a lot of consternation one that side of the ball. I don’t know who called plays for VT, but I assume it was Long and maybe that was the last straw.

I later followed up to confirm Long's reduced role. And that is 100% a fact, per a source at practices.

People get hung up on the semantics of Rees "calling" plays. I can't tell you for certain what percentage of calls were off the script he put together with Kelly each week, and I can't tell you what percentage were made by Kelly, and I can't tell you what other offensive coaches had input. Only the people on the game day headsets can say that definitively. But what I can say is that he was de facto offensive coordinator and the primary driver behind the completely different passing game we saw after VT........ and that there is a reason he was "play caller" for Iowa State.

Even without any info, all you have to do is use your eyes on how little Long was involved with anything on the sideline over the last month of the season relative to the first 8 games, and then use some low level logic on what that means. And anyone who knows why Kelly has had friction with every single OC he has had from Molnar to Long will also tell you that play calling is a "collaborative" approach.

 

[koonja]

I never said it was a "true" rumor. But it was more than just some random dude bringing it up. Lax is a legit and respected poster on this board who went to ND and has ties to the program. Quite frankly, I could care less whether its true or not. None of us on this board have any ability to sway the decision. Whatever happens, happens.

I'm not posting this at you specifically, but for everyone who bought into the "Rees was calling plays, I heard it from someone" madness.

That caught way more momentum than it should have. I challenged it, shot it down, and got everyone off of that mess.