Oct 26 | Michigan

[IrishLax]

Circa Sports out of Vegas just came out with a line of MI -4.

About what I expected. I called Michigan -3. The style matchup is not favorable towards us, and its on the road. Basically a toss up.

 

[Wingman Ray]

I mean, ND is most likely going to be ranked 7th or 8th going into this week, so they aren't really in the discussion at this point unless some significant chaos ensues.

That being said, who has Ohio State played who is of consequence? Michigan State? Their defense is very good, but their offense may be the best defense in college football. Cincinnati? A feel-good story, but they are very fortunate to be in the East division of the AAC. It is far and away the weakest division. They dodge Navy, Tulane and SMU, and only have to play Memphis before the championship game.

Their two biggest games are Wisconsin and Penn State, both home games and both are fairly overrated.

I shouldn't have used OSU as a comparison as you are right. They haven't played anyone. However, the year they beat Bama in the NC they didn't play anyone either yet they still beat Bama.

I just meant that until ND is at a place where playing very middle teams like Michigan isn't a major concern for season derail, then confidence being able to run a legit playoff appearance shouldn't be discussed.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

About what I expected. I called Michigan -3. The style matchup is not favorable towards us, and its on the road. Basically a toss up.

Eh I’d take this type of game over a USC with speedy/elite receivers all over the field or a problematic mobile QB. As long as we don’t get overly cute on defense and stick to our base defense we’ll slow them down. Our Oline has been aces in pass protection all season, I think the crossing routes with our TE’s and big bodied receivers will cause Don Brown fits and well move the ball while adding in some back shoulder fades against the 1-1 match ups. I’m also hoping we’ve figured out our run game plus the added dimension of Jafar will give us some explosion.

Maybe I’m too optimistic but I think ND wins by 7-10.

 

[arrowryan]

About what I expected. I called Michigan -3. The style matchup is not favorable towards us, and its on the road. Basically a toss up.

Can you go into further detail about the unfavorable style matchup? Michigan’s pass offense stinks.

I’m not saying Notre Dame wins, but it seems that Michigan had one good half on offense against PSU and now the sky is falling.

 

[ndbroski]

We need turnovers to win this game. We are #2 in TO margin while Michigan is tied for #84 (EDIT: we're #1 in turnover ratio per game). Our D will probably allow 20-30 pts like they always do, but with TO's we can afford to be sleepy on O and still win comfortably.

I don't think we'll be able to rely on Jones Jr. and the run game this week. Michigan's D is susceptible over the top but that's our weakest facet of our pass game. Michigan's D matches up well against our O. If we can't create turnovers and capitalize off of them then we're in for a frustrating, ugly loss and will have to put up with the insufferablility of Michigan till the end of the season/end of time.

 

[Lepresean]

Did anyone catch Griese saying that Notre Dame didn't want to play Michigan anymore when talking about the matchup?

 

[ulukinatme]

Michigan had 26 first downs to PSU's 14. This alone is so stark nothing else needs to be noted. But..

Michigan also dominated them in total yards, 417 to 283.

Michigan had both more rushing and passing yards.

Michigan dominated the TOP, 37 to 22.

If you can't see how Michigan outplayed PSU and any PSU fan with half of a brain feels lucky to have gotten the W, we don't have to talk football anymore.

If they played again on a neutral field Michigan would be favored over PSU.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup?gameId=401112226

The Hillary argument, ... "But I won the election"

But LOST HOW THE GAME IS SCORED.

FINAL PSU 28 UM 21

Shea is not better than Book. How many losses does Shea have on his career? If the team plays at the same level they did against Georgia, we should win. Why? Michigan is not better than Georgia. Sanford Stadium is louder than the Big Toilet Bowl. We're healthier now than we were when we played Georgia. We've had a Bye week to prepare and rest. Michigan is coming off a grueling defeat at the hands of Penn State. We may not be favored, but we should be imo. I think we win this one.

 

[NDinMI]

Now already down to MI -2.5.

 

[IrishLax]

Can you go into further detail about the unfavorable style matchup? Michigan’s pass offense stinks.

I’m not saying Notre Dame wins, but it seems that Michigan had one good half on offense against PSU and now the sky is falling.

They only stink in terms of production. As in: yes, they have sucked all year, and that's undeniable. But they have a ton of talent, and have shown glimpses of improvement on a weekly basis. That latter part of the PSU game showed how dangerous they are when they just let their WRs make plays. And USC's quick hitting offense was a load for our defense to handle.

The bigger issue is that their defense is good, and well suited to stop an ND offense that is reliant on running the ball right now because the passing game is a disaster. What they are vulnerable to is what Wimbush exploited last year in the first half (as did Ohio State) which is that they leave their guys on an island so you can beat them for big chunk plays. If I thought Book could throw a good deep ball or that Long was capable of doing what PSU did (getting someone like Keys or Lenzy in the slot and attacking their LBs/Safeties) then I'd feel confident... but I don't believe he can do that. I think he's likely to play right into what Michigan likes to do. And Michigan has shown repeatedly that they throttle teams that can't win their 1v1 matchups, and that they get smoked by teams that can. So I understand why Michigan is a small favorite at home, and I think ND is going to need to be uber aggressive to score 20+ points.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

We need turnovers to win this game. We are #2 in TO margin while Michigan is tied for #84 (EDIT: we're #1 in turnover ratio per game). Our D will probably allow 20-30 pts like they always do, but with TO's we can afford to be sleepy on O and still win comfortably.

I don't think we'll be able to rely on Jones Jr. and the run game this week. Michigan's D is susceptible over the top but that's our weakest facet of our pass game. Michigan's D matches up well against our O. If we can't create turnovers and capitalize off of them then we're in for a frustrating, ugly loss and will have to put up with the insufferablility of Michigan till the end of the season/end of time.

I don’t think we need turnovers more so then that we can’t commit them. Just as important as not turning the ball over is not being penalized for an excessive amount of illegal procedure penalties/ false starts. I think we’ll be fine

 

[NorthDakota]

Shea is not better than Book. How many losses does Shea have on his career? If the team plays at the same level they did against Georgia, we should win. Why? Michigan is not better than Georgia. Sanford Stadium is louder than the Big Toilet Bowl. We're healthier now than we were when we played Georgia. We've had a Bye week to prepare and rest. Michigan is coming off a grueling defeat at the hands of Penn State. We may not be favored, but we should be imo. I think we win this one.

Book is hot garbage this year. ND should win this game but the difference between these teams is not at QB

 

[Crazy Balki]

Book is hot garbage this year. ND should win this game but the difference between these teams is not at QB

If Book is hot garbage, then Patterson is a fuel-doused dumpster orbiting the surface of the Sun.

I mean, I really don't get it. When did Patterson suddenly become not-terrible?

I know Book has been disappointing, but he's still been considerably better than Patterson. That's not even remotely debatable.

 

[Irish YJ]

Q

Q

If Book is hot garbage, then Patterson is a fuel-doused dumpster orbiting the surface of the Sun.

I mean, I really don't get it. When did Patterson suddenly become not-terrible?

I know Book has been disappointing, but he's still been considerably better than Patterson. That's not even remotely debatable.

Yup. Say what you want about Book, but Patterson isn't even close. QBR wise, Book is at least top 25 while Patterson isn't even in the top 50.

 

[Irishize]

If I could swap when we played a team, i’d swap scUM for UGA. I didn’t watch the game but from reading this thread and from what Andy Staples/Nicole Auerbach said, the way Patterson put his WR in a good spot to make plays in the 2nd half to the point that they may finally flipping the switch to Gattis’ philosophy. Who knows?

 

[Irish YJ]

If I could swap when we played a team, i’d swap scUM for UGA. I didn’t watch the game but from reading this thread and from what Andy Staples/Nicole Auerbach said, the way Patterson put his WR in a good spot to make plays in the 2nd half to the point that they may finally flipping the switch to Gattis’ philosophy. Who knows?

Then I'm glad we rank about 30 spots better than Penn St in passing D

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

The key is going to be getting pressure on Patterson and let’s hope the refs throw some flags

 

[Irishize]

The key is going to be getting pressure on Patterson and let’s hope the refs throw some flags

And avoiding dumb penalties like in Athens. Have we gone one game where there wasn’t at least one false start?

 

[Valpodoc85]

We can’t do the rush 3 and sit back. It will be a long day. Patterson needs time to process. Have to keep the pressure on. Gimme some Jafar/Kmet how do you like me now

 

[Valpodoc85]

Early weather is high 53 low 37. Rain on Friday and Sunday

 

[IrishLax]

We can’t do the rush 3 and sit back. It will be a long day. Patterson needs time to process. Have to keep the pressure on. Gimme some Jafar/Kmet how do you like me now

Yeah, to me it looked like when they had success in the second half they just went to quick-hitting, single read stuff because Michigan's line could not handle the blitzes and Patterson has no pocket presence.

 

[Irishize]

Yeah, to me it looked like when they had success in the second half they just went to quick-hitting, single read stuff because Michigan's line could not handle the blitzes and Patterson has no pocket presence.

Watching the replay now. Patterson has shown nice arm strength but you’re right...he looks sketchy at the first sight of pressure in the pocket. He’s struggling what Book was struggling with earlier this season.

 

[loomis41973]

Bring a consistent blitz and this won't be close.

2 biggest bets of the past 5 years for me. I see an easy 2-3 score win for the Irish.

ND+4
ND ML

 

[Irish#1]

They're better at WR, but 3x over. Shea is also better than Book against teams that matter. I expect Shea to be the best QB QB Saturday night.

They're also much better at corner. Their #1 is better than our #1 and their #2 is better than ours.

Their front 7 I dont know well enough at an individual level, I just watch them and they get penetration and play really fast. I think their front 7 is as good as Georgia's.

You forgot

Their cheerleaders are better
Their band is better
Their professor of World History is better.

 

[koonja]

Can someone share the advanced stats that rank units (i.e., #15 defense)? I'd like to look at how we stack up and different units nationally compared to scUM now that there's some real data points.

 

[Irish#1]

This is going to be a close game because it is at scUM. However, we should win this game. We are good at avoiding TO's and we don't get many big penalties. Those are always a key when you're on the road.

I don't expect Lea top use the same defense that he did against UGA. He may thrown it in there once in a while, but I think he's going to give his base defense a shot before he gets a little gimmicky.

What scUM did against PSU has no bearing on this game.

 

[koonja]

Can someone share the advanced stats that rank units (i.e., #15 defense)? I'd like to look at how we stack up and different units nationally compared to scUM now that there's some real data points.

According to FEI, PSU has a better offense, better special teams, and a better defense than ND, and they had Michigan at home.

So what's the basis for "PSU sucks" compared to ND?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef/2019

 

[ND88]

According to FEI, PSU has a better offense, better special teams, and a better defense than ND, and they had Michigan at home.

So what's the basis for "PSU sucks" compared to ND?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef/2019

Bias and the fact that they usually lay a turd with either MI and/or OSU. They rarely amount to a hill of beans by the end of the season and outside of OSU, the Big 10 is pretty much a big meh fest. I don’t know much about FEI, but based on the eye test, our D looked stronger. However, their offense looked more explosive on the long ball and their QB did a better job exploiting MI over the top than Book has shown he can do.

 

[irishtrooper]

According to FEI, PSU has a better offense, better special teams, and a better defense than ND, and they had Michigan at home.

So what's the basis for "PSU sucks" compared to ND?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef/2019

I don’t agree that PSU sucks either, but I would posit that they have played one decent team (outside of Michigan) in Iowa and looked very average. I’ve watched PSU 4 times this season and at least a half dozen times each of the previous 2 seasons (family friend is a huge fan). I think you are waaaay overrating them. They are extremely inconsistent. I’d argue they are more explosive, but they go very long stretches where they do absolutely nothing. My friend follows them very closely and even he believes that they are overrated. Metrics are one thing, but watch the game. I’m just not sure we should be scared that this Michigan team is going to beat us because they LOST to PSU. I get that they are home and we’re on the road against PSU. They were also home against Army and Iowa, how was Michigan’s offense then? I think we’ll have to play poorly to lose and Michigan will have to play clean (something they struggle with).

Go watch the Army, Iowa or Wisconsin games if you want to feel confident. Heck throw the Illinois game in there too. They have really not been impressive at all this year except LOSING to PSU. I think we’re better by varying margins in pretty much every spot (save WR). If we switched results with Michigan this season, everyone here would be positive they would crush us.

 

[irish4ever]

You forgot

Their cheerleaders are better
Their band is better
Their professor of World History is better.

michigan has World History?!? Hmmmm, didn't know that.

 

[ACamp1900]

I mean, I pretend to be the punch drunk wuss of a fan so y'all don't have to do it for reals............