ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Booslum31]

Stanford 11

 

[BobbyMac]

...and the crowd goes crazy. The Irish own Chicago!

 

[stlnd01]

Oklahoma 7 is scary... Beating OSU and TCU will give the committee a lot to look at.. I think ND has to dominate Stanford.. Really make a statement

Said this in the other thread, but I'd be surprised if TCU is ranked at season's end. And, other than beat TCU, Oklahoma State has done what, exactly? Lots of close games against middling Big 12 competition. Wouldn't be surprised if they end with two losses.
Obviously it helps if we win in convincing fashion. But the Big 12 round robin may not look as tough when it's through.

 

[irish4ever]

Oklahoma 7 is scary... Beating OSU and TCU will give the committee a lot to look at.. I think ND has to dominate Stanford.. Really make a statement

Oklahoma 17. Texas. 24
Norte Dame 38. Texas. 3

Need to discuss further?

 

[wizards8507]

Oklahoma 17. Texas. 24
Norte Dame 38. Texas. 3

Need to discuss further?

Common opponent is ONE criterion, not the only one.

 

[phork]

Common opponent is ONE criterion, not the only one.

But if you are looking at ND with a loss by 2 points in the last second on the road with a QB starting his first road game at the #1 team in the country and a crushing win over a team that ran for over 300 yards that beat Oklahoma... How do you pick Oklahoma?

 

[Irish YJ]

Common opponent is ONE criterion, not the only one.

when it comes to deciding CFB conference champions, it is number 2, after head to head match up. it's pretty much the same across every sport. I know we should not assume the committee will embrace, but it does provide some comfort....

 

[johnnycando]

when it comes to deciding CFB conference champions, it is number 2, after head to head match up. it's pretty much the same across every sport. I know we should not assume the committee will embrace, but it does provide some comfort....

And ultimately, there is no championship game in the Big XII.

Just another feather in our cap.

No extra game.

 

[IrishinSyria]

when it comes to deciding CFB conference champions, it is number 2, after head to head match up. it's pretty much the same across every sport. I know we should not assume the committee will embrace, but it does provide some comfort....

Yeah, but the argument for that in other sports and in conference play is stronger because you're confident that the teams played more or less the same schedule, so you can cancel out all the common wins. Not so true in CFB.

To put it in concrete terms, if North Carolina beats Clemson in the ACC CG, our entire fanbase is going to do a complete 180 on the subject of how much you should compare common opponents.


edit: I actually do think NC will have a shot too. Their offense is fire, and Clempson's been known to give up some big plays.

 

[Cogs]

UNC is scary good and will probably beat Clemson. They havent even had a close game since the first week. Also, BC scares me. One of the best defenses in the country

 

[GATTACA!]

UNC is scary good and will probably beat Clemson. They havent even had a close game since the first week. Also, BC scares me. One of the best defenses in the country

I think it goes

1 Clemson/UNC
2 Alabama/Florida
3 13-0 OSU/13-0 Iowa/ 12-1 MSU
4 12-0 OKST
5 11-1 ND
6 11-1 OU

UNC beating Clemson in the championship game IMO comes far too late to actually effect our SOS so negatively that we would drop essentially two spots since UNC would be taking #4. I think people are putting far too much weight into the idea that the close loss at Clemson is the reason we are ranked so highly. Same goes for OSU MSU Iowa whoever wins the Big10 is in and the rest fall out.

The only help we need is OKST dropping a game somewhere. Personally I think they are likely to drop the next two.

 

[dublinirish]

UNC is scary good and will probably beat Clemson. They havent even had a close game since the first week. Also, BC scares me. One of the best defenses in the country

their offense is terrible though, they'd be better off punting on every down

 

[GoldenDomer]

UNC is not, "probably gonna beat Clemson". I think the Tigers win by 14. UNC has played 2 teams who play a physical brand of football; SC and GT. They lost to South Carolina and needed a big comeback to beat GT. They dont like getting hit in the mouth, and Clemson will.

 

[gkIrish]

I don't think UNC will get in if they win out. The committee does not respect them at all by putting them at #17 right now.

 

[ickythump1225]

I'm torn on UNC. They represent a potential doomsday scenario for us. If the win out it will be very hard for the committee to put us in over a 12-1 Clemson with the head to head win over us, but at the same time how would they keep out a 12-1 team that has a victory over the team we lost to? I'd rather avoid that and I'm just hoping UNC loses at some point.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I'm torn on UNC. They represent a potential doomsday scenario for us. If the win out it will be very hard for the committee to put us in over a 12-1 Clemson with the head to head win over us, but at the same time how would they keep out a 12-1 team that has a victory over the team we lost to? I'd rather avoid that and I'm just hoping UNC loses at some point.

UNC stays out in that scenario due to their weak SOS. The question them becomes does Clemson's weak SOS compensate for their close win against the Irish. I say no and the Irish would get in. The overall body of work has to count for something as well.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And, back by popular request, the “what-ifs of the week” table. Odds to win out, etc.: <a href="https://t.co/MvBfeGIIWb">https://t.co/MvBfeGIIWb</a> <a href="https://t.co/kM1mvuK6V5">pic.twitter.com/kM1mvuK6V5</a></p>— Andrew Flowers (@andrewflowers) <a href="https://twitter.com/andrewflowers/status/667353711958745088">November 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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According to fivethirtyeight, we have a 63% chance of making the playoffs if we win out.

 

[wizards8507]

According to fivethirtyeight, we have a 63% chance of making the playoffs if we win out.

I'll buy that.

 

[gkIrish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And, back by popular request, the “what-ifs of the week” table. Odds to win out, etc.: <a href="https://t.co/MvBfeGIIWb">https://t.co/MvBfeGIIWb</a> <a href="https://t.co/kM1mvuK6V5">pic.twitter.com/kM1mvuK6V5</a></p>— Andrew Flowers (@andrewflowers) <a href="https://twitter.com/andrewflowers/status/667353711958745088">November 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

According to fivethirtyeight, we have a 63% chance of making the playoffs if we win out.

So that takes into account the odds that both OSU and Oklahoma lose another game, correct? Therefore if either team wins out our chances are something south of 63%?

 

[IrishLax]

The flaw in the model is the assumption that a 1-loss Oklahoma has a 92% chance. It (basically) gives Notre Dame a slightly-better-than-null chance at getting in over either a 1-loss Oklahoma or 0-loss Oklahoma State. That's likely true for Oklahoma State. There is, on the other hand, not much evidence to support the fact that #7 Oklahoma is guaranteed to jump us if they win out.

In general, there are some pretty obvious logical flaws with what 538 is presenting. For example, a 13-0 Iowa certainly has a better chance of getting in than a 12-0 Oklahoma State. This is inarguable and obvious. Yet the model says the opposite.

 

[IrishLax]

So what happens if...

Ohio State beats MSU, and then loses to Michigan. Michigan beats Iowa in Big Ten championship.

UNC beats Clemson in ACC championship.

Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama in the SEC championship.

Who gets in?

 

[koonja]

So what happens if...

Ohio State beats MSU, and then loses to Michigan. Michigan beats Iowa in Big Ten championship.

UNC beats Clemson in ACC championship.

Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama in the SEC championship.

Who gets in?

UCONN.

 

[koonja]

So what happens if...

Ohio State beats MSU, and then loses to Michigan. Michigan beats Iowa in Big Ten championship.

UNC beats Clemson in ACC championship.

Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama in the SEC championship.

Who gets in?

ND, Clemson, Big 12, and winner of Pac 12 over Bama since Pac 12 would be the conference champ. Actually probably Michigan.

 

[gkIrish]

So what happens if...

Ohio State beats MSU, and then loses to Michigan. Michigan beats Iowa in Big Ten championship.

UNC beats Clemson in ACC championship.

Florida loses to FSU and then beats Bama in the SEC championship.

Who gets in?

Clemson
Best Big 12 Team
ND
UNC or undefeated Houston

 

[koonja]

Actually yes, GK is right. It'd be ND, Clemson (assuming the loss wasn't by like 40), UNC, and best of the B1g12.

 

[beryirish]

I'm more anxious for Sunday than I am Saturday watching ND because I hope it will paint a clearer picture of who's still in the running. A clearer picture with ND winning Saturday of course.

 

[koonja]

I'm more anxious for Sunday than I am Saturday watching ND because I hope it will paint a clearer picture of who's still in the running. A clearer picture with ND winning Saturday of course.

This week's will still come out on Tuesday I believe, the following week (conf champ week), it'll be Sunday.

 

[Irish Insanity]

UNC beats Clemson in ACC championship.

I've pondered this one a lot lately.

 

[phork]

 

[greyhammer90]

Ok so our worry is Oklahoma (assuming we don't play like shit against Stanford).