ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[aubeirish]

Someone tell me how a 1-loss Oklahoma deserves to be in over us when we'll likely have 4 top 25 wins (Stanford, USC, Temple, Navy), with Stanford being more impressive than OK's best win, and they'll have had 3 top 25 wins (TCU, OK ST, Baylor), and a much uglier loss (to a team we throttled 38-3).

No way. You lose to Texas badly, you're out. That's the only argument needed. It doesn't matter if you win against teams of your conference the rest of the way that are unproven outside of your conference. Big 12 wanted to be taken seriously, they should have scheduled teams from other power 5 conferences. Texas has and it didn't worked out real well for them. Oklahoma played an inconsistent Tennessee team and almost lost. That's the only outside of conference resume they have. Not enough IMO, and that is why all their teams are ranked so low.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

If we were to make the playoffs, I think the proceeding month off could do wonders for this team. We are a very good team and are so close to being an elite team. For example. Our defense is very good. There have been very few times teams have produced long sustaining drives on us to score. Allot of it has been big plays caused by missed assignments. Those mistakes can be corrected. Athletically and size wise we match up with anyone. On offense we are averaging 7.1 yards a play! 5th best in the nation and that's against good competition (1.Baylor, 2.UNC, 3.TCU, 4.WKU all with easier schedule strengths). Red zone efficiency has been our downfall here due to INTs. This is also a very correctable mistake. All I'm saying is this team has not played to it's full potential yet... Which is quite scary IMO.

 

[shalom]

I think the committee has deferred in ranking them very high because they are not a complete team. It's not a coincidence that all of the Big 12 schools aren't ranked very high. Schedule certainly plays into that, but going off of last year, it appears to me the committee also wants the most complete teams. Utah has no chance of getting into the top four after the pasting they took unless they win out 75-0 in their remaining games. Our SOS may take a hit for a couple of weeks, but we're already a top four team in the committee's eyes and I don't see us getting punished very hard for that.

You do have a point that Baylor does not look like a complete team. In contrast the intangibles definitely have worked in ND's favor as a 1 loss team. The injuries, the quality of the loss have been major stated factors in ND's current position. But I think the larger issue is that the Committee isn't really isn't sure how good Baylor's offense is. Could they put up 50 versus a really stout defense? There's no way to know because they haven't played anyone. On the other side, Baylor's defense has looked suspect in many games where they could allow a bunch of points. Do they have what it takes to make a key stop when they have to? Again no way to know, that inability to gauge is the larger issue influencing the other questions. So they wait.

Utah's chances are slim, agreed. I actually don't think Baylor is going to make it undefeated through the next 3 games, but the point is ND's fate isn't in its own hands. What they need to do is keep playing, get help from other teams, win out and see what happens.

 

[Legacy]

2015 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

Statistically, we've moved up from fifth to third behind Clemson and Alabama. Ohio State is fifth, Baylor is eleventh, and Iowa is seventeenth.

 

[phork]

2015 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

Statistically, we've moved up from fifth to third behind Clemson and Alabama. Ohio State is fifth, Baylor is eleventh, and Iowa is seventeenth.

Link Fail.

 

[BobbyMac]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OVERALL COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS

Link fixed

 

[NorthDakota]

No way. You lose to Texas badly, you're out. That's the only argument needed. It doesn't matter if you win against teams of your conference the rest of the way that are unproven outside of your conference. Big 12 wanted to be taken seriously, they should have scheduled teams from other power 5 conferences. Texas has and it didn't worked out real well for them. Oklahoma played an inconsistent Tennessee team and almost lost. That's the only outside of conference resume they have. Not enough IMO, and that is why all their teams are ranked so low.

Yeah TLDR, you lose to Texas this year... You aren't playing in the playoffs.

 

[koonja]

Yeah TLDR, you lose to Texas this year... You aren't playing in the playoffs.

Agree but only because we beat them. VT last year isn't that far off from Texas this year. VT finished 7-6.

 

[ickythump1225]

You do have a point that Baylor does not look like a complete team. In contrast the intangibles definitely have worked in ND's favor as a 1 loss team. The injuries, the quality of the loss have been major stated factors in ND's current position. But I think the larger issue is that the Committee isn't really isn't sure how good Baylor's offense is. Could they put up 50 versus a really stout defense? There's no way to know because they haven't played anyone. On the other side, Baylor's defense has looked suspect in many games where they could allow a bunch of points. Do they have what it takes to make a key stop when they have to? Again no way to know, that inability to gauge is the larger issue influencing the other questions. So they wait.

Utah's chances are slim, agreed. I actually don't think Baylor is going to make it undefeated through the next 3 games, but the point is ND's fate isn't in its own hands. What they need to do is keep playing, get help from other teams, win out and see what happens.

I do like this feature of the committee. They seem to look for complete teams and that is nice. I hate that most pollsters completely fall in love with big offenses and forget about defense entirely it seems. Look at Florida for instance this year. They remind me of a poor man's version of the 2012 Irish: great defense and questionable offense. If that was the reserve they would definitely get more love right now than they do. Even the 2012 Irish had a hard time climbing the rankings because we weren't sexy. It bothers me that great defense never really seems to get it's due.

I like that the committee seems to take into account all aspects of the game. It's keeping the Big 12 and their flagrant lack of defense in check right now.

 

[BeatSC]

The Pitt, Navy and USC wins will need to be our signature wins for this year since Temple ate Sh&t tonight and Stanford lost. Looks like the big 12 will be self destructing. OK doesn't get in over us. Beating Baylor with the backup isn't the same by any stretch. Iowa needs to lose but they need to play a ranked team. We whooped Pitt and they didn't.

 

[WaveDomer]

The Pitt, Navy and USC wins will need to be our signature wins for this year since Temple ate Sh&t tonight and Stanford lost. Looks like the big 12 will be self destructing. OK doesn't get in over us. Beating Baylor with the backup isn't the same by any stretch. Iowa needs to lose but they need to play a ranked team. We whooped Pitt and they didn't.

Notre Dame beating Stanford on the road is still a big time win, IMHO. And does LSU getting beat hurt Bama?

 

[BeatSC]

Was thinking the same thing. By the end if the season Bama won't have a win over a ranked team

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

Was thinking the same thing. By the end if the season Bama won't have a win over a ranked team

Tennessee

 

[edgesofsanity]

Notre Dame beating Stanford on the road is still a big time win, IMHO.

Stanford still controls their destiny in the Pac12 North if they beat Cal; if Utah stumbles USC will have the tie breaker if they win out, so potentially ND will have wins over both the North and South champions in the PAC 12. So definitely still a big potential win.

 

[irishfan]

More worried about an 11-1 Big-12 team jumping us if we finish 11-1 now than I was before the weekend.

All of this is assuming Clemson, SEC Champ, and B1G Champ are locks:

Really, the only teams on our schedule who I trust to be ranked to end the year are Stanford and Navy. I don't trust USC or Pitt to win out and finish 9-3 and ranked. Temple looks like they'll lose to Memphis next week and finish unranked. They also might not win their division now.

Any 11-1 Big-12 team is a lock to have 2 top-25 wins, and a loss that won't be much better than our Clemson loss. OU had a bad loss, but at 11-1 they will have beaten four ranked teams (Tennessee is going to go 8-4 and be ranked), and three of those wins will have come on the road.

The committee last year made it pretty clear that they don't really care who you lost to, and they mainly care about top-25 wins. I think 11-1 OU would have a great argument over us if our SOS doesn't break the right way, and Baylor/TCU/OSU would have solid arguments at 11-1...especially since I can't shake the feeling that the committee might try and do a "make-up call" for leaving the Big-12 out last year. A couple teams tying at 8-1 in that conference would be huge for us though.

Someone please convince me I'm just being a pessimistic ND fan.

 

[nd_fan]

If Pitt plays well, they have a better shot of going 9-3 than USC. Temple is playing Memphis and the way Memphis played their last 2 games, they are no way that much better than Temple. As a matter of fact, currently ESPN has Temple predicted to win (not that predictions mean much). Temple can easily go 10-2 or at worst 9-3.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'm not worried about a Big 12 team jumping us at 11-1 unless it's Oklahoma. People are saying that the loss to Texas isn't much different than tOSU's loss to VT last year. In some ways I agree, but Oklahoma should get a bit more respect for the Texas loss than tOSU's loss last year simply because it was a rivalry game for the Sooners, and anything can happen in a rivalry regardless of how good or bad either team is that year. That said, I still don't expect Oklahoma to jump us, but if an 11-1 Big 12 team is going to do it, Oklahoma would have the best resume for the committee.

That said, everything is still going according to plan. Big 12 cannibalization is occurring as expected. Only Oklahoma State is really left to lose a game. Hopefully Baylor takes care of them, or Oklahoma, because Iowa State couldn't pull the upset. An OK St loss will all but solidify our spot in the playoff imo now that the PAC-12 seems to be out of it with Stanford dropping the ball against Oregon. Would have been nice for them to win out, but I think it'll still be a quality win for us if we beat them on the road to end the year. As long as OK St loses and we win, the playoff should be SEC Champ, B1G champ, Clemson I imagine, and us.

 

[EifertPower]

Dream scenarios

1. USC and Stanford both win out in the PAC-10 games and play each other in the Pac-10 championship.

2. UNC losses its final two games and Pitt wins its final games and plays Clemson in the ACC championship.

3. Navy beats Memphis and Temple beats Memphis and UCONN and Navy plays Temple in the AAC championship.

4. Texas wins its final two games and makes a bowl game.

5. Oklahoma State loses to either or both Baylor and Oklahoma

6. Iowa loses to Nebraska

7. Alabama loses to Auburn

8. Florida loses to Florida State

 

[phork]

We need Baylor to beat Okie St and Oklahoma to lose another game. Oklahoma is the only one that worries me, even though we have common opponent.

 

[wizards8507]

Ohio State could lose to either or both of Michigan or Sparty.

 

[EifertPower]

Do you think any conferences get more than 1 team in the field?

SEC. What if 12-1 Florida beats 11-2 Alabama in the SEC championship? If it's a close game, i worry both would get in. On the other hand, if Florida State beats Florida and Florida wins the SEC title, then would any SEC team get in? Logic says no but the SEC bias probably says yes.

B1G. What if Iowa and Ohio State are both undefeated and play each other in the Big 10 championship and Iowa wins. I worry Ohio State still gets in. Or what if Michigan State wins the Big 10 and Ohio State finishes 11-1?

ACC: What if 12-1 UNC beats 12-1 Clemson? Would both get in? My guess is UNC gets in and Clemson doesn't but the issue then is if Clemson doesn't get in at 12-1 then how can we make an argument that we get in at 11-1 when they beat us (albeit by us missing 2 2-point conversion on the road in a monsoon with 4 turnovers in the second half).

Big 12: What if two teams both go 11-1?

Does Houston have any chance of a berth?

Also, this BC game next weekend scares me stiff. It's a classic case of BC not being good but matching up perfectly against us. It's going to be a real close game--that much i know for sure.

 

[rtrn2glory]

I really feel like the committee had to put us in if we win o out due to the fact that we actually try to schedule the right way despite being an independent

We don't dance around and schedule joke teams must to get to November with a chance to get in

Yea I'm biased but I'll day reward is for doing things the right way

 

[wizards8507]

Do you think any conferences get more than 1 team in the field?

SEC. What if 12-1 Florida beats 11-2 Alabama in the SEC championship? If it's a close game, i worry both would get in. On the other hand, if Florida State beats Florida and Florida wins the SEC title, then would any SEC team get in? Logic says no but the SEC bias probably says yes.

B1G. What if Iowa and Ohio State are both undefeated and play each other in the Big 10 championship and Iowa wins. I worry Ohio State still gets in. Or what if Michigan State wins the Big 10 and Ohio State finishes 11-1?

ACC: What if 12-1 UNC beats 12-1 Clemson? Would both get in? My guess is UNC gets in and Clemson doesn't but the issue then is if Clemson doesn't get in at 12-1 then how can we make an argument that we get in at 11-1 when they beat us (albeit by us missing 2 2-point conversion on the road in a monsoon with 4 turnovers in the second half).

Big 12: What if two teams both go 11-1?

Does Houston have any chance of a berth?

Also, this BC game next weekend scares me stiff. It's a classic case of BC not being good but matching up perfectly against us. It's going to be a real close game--that much i know for sure.

No.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Notre Dame beating Stanford on the road is still a big time win, IMHO. And does LSU getting beat hurt Bama?

Bama beat a ranked MSU team this week while the other 3 top 4 didn't show out great. That and the fact that the Bama game vs LSU didn't come down to a possession or two, I don't think affects Bama.

 

[IrishLax]

As things stand, if ND wins out they'll own a win over the PAC12 champ. The problem is that the PAC12 champ will have 3 losses.

The ND vs Big 12 debate is going to get weird. You can make an argument for and against ND relative to every one of their front runners.

 

[johnnycando]

As things stand, if ND wins out they'll own a win over the PAC12 champ. The problem is that the PAC12 champ will have 3 losses.

The ND vs Big 12 debate is going to get weird. You can make an argument for and against ND relative to every one of their front runners.

They have a committee for that.

We can only worry about what we can control.

That being said, I will commit to a $200 real bet, payable on PayPal, that we will be in if we win out.

Any worriers care to bet? (not intended for you LAX. Anyone actually.)

 

[stlnd01]

As things stand, if ND wins out they'll own a win over the PAC12 champ. The problem is that the PAC12 champ will have 3 losses.

The ND vs Big 12 debate is going to get weird. You can make an argument for and against ND relative to every one of their front runners.

Yep. Didn't see the game last night but reading a lot of good buzz this AM around Oklahoma. If they beat Okie State at the end that team is going to have a strong case. Baylor and especially TCU look done though.

Also I worry the Big 12 getting shut out last year is going to come back to bite us.

 

[stlnd01]

You know what'd help us a ton: Bama and Florida each losing another game.

 

[johnnycando]

Yep. Didn't see the game last night but reading a lot of good buzz this AM around Oklahoma. If they beat Okie State at the end that team is going to have a strong case. Baylor and especially TCU look done though.

Also I worry the Big 12 getting shut out last year is going to come back to bite us.

How do?

Ohio St or Iowa will be in.

If not, then Michigan St wins it all, they won't be I don't think.

PAC XII is out.

Bama drops one they're out. But they'll win the SEC.

Life is good.

Oklahoma won't be in due to no championship game. The Big XII has no championship game. That's huge. We smoked the team they lost to in their loss.

 

[Fbolt]

A lot of football to be played. The Big 12 is cannibalizing themselves with Ok St being the only undefeated team-they will lose before the season is up. Iowa will lose before the season ends too.

It's easy to line up behind the top 4, much harder to crack it. If the Irish continue to win out, a big if with Stanford looming (that'll be a hard fought game), they have a great opportunity to stay where they are. Also, does anyone think tOSU will remain undefeated?

Win and watch.