ND Coaching Changes 2016

[bkess8]

After watching Catholics vs. Convicts, there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO to retain Kelly. Like none. Guys like Tony Rice, Pat Eilars, and Pat Terrell literally would have murdered someone for Holtz and the University. "You save Jimmy Johnson's ass for me!" is the type of attitude we need coaching at ND. It's a tough place for student-athletes because of the competing demands of academics and athletics. Which is all the more reason to get someone like Holtz who recruits would go to war for.

Are you talking about my choice for HC in PJ Fleck. He can motivate and recruit!

 

[rocket66]

ND Coaching Changes 2016

He thinks the additional improvement the D will see from Elko will be enough to keep Kelly's job next year. If Elston got the job, the marginal improvement would be less and Scared Swarbrick would be less likely to retain Kelly.



Addition by subtraction.

That's crazy. I'm pretty anti-BK but I still want to see the team succeed like crazy. I hope like hell it all comes together and BK becomes a hot name again..and I think that's more likely to happen than him getting fired. I would be completely on board with this anti BK movement if recruiting was also suffering, but it looks like ND is about to land another top 10 class despite all of the issues this year.


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[gkIrish]

I mean, LSU did the exact same thing with Aranda and it worked out super well for them because it ensured he stayed put when they moved on from Miles. The more money and years the better for Elko, IMO*.

*Should not be more than a 4 year deal, and 3 would be preferable, in terms of guaranteed money.

Elko is not Aranda

It's Notre Dame. They should be handling this like the Yankees, not the Rays. Pay him and if it doesn't work, pay his buyout. No top 10 coordinator is coming for a 2 year deal. Look at what Oregon just did with Leavitt.

That's how they should have handled the coaching situation this year and didn't.

They can stroke a check out of petty cash to get rid of Elko in a heartbeat.

Lets say they give Elko 3 years at $3.6M and then Fleck hires Jimmy Lake next year instead. Here's your $2.4M, Have a nice day.

They have been gun shy about eating money since the Weis debacle. It was a big reason a HC change was not made this year.

He thinks the additional improvement the D will see from Elko will be enough to keep Kelly's job next year. If Elston got the job, the marginal improvement would be less and Scared Swarbrick would be less likely to retain Kelly.

Addition by subtraction.

Sort of. It's mainly that I don't want say $4 million tied up to a coach considering money is a big reason a change has not already been made. Say we win 8 games next year, the conversation is going to be can we eat BK's contract + Elko's contract to land someone like John Harbaugh (and pay him like 8 million) OR the conversation could be can we eat BK's contract plus like 1 million of Elston's contract. I prefer the latter situation. I simply don't want more reasons to retain BK to be on the books.

 

[BobbyMac]

Are you talking about my choice for HC in PJ Fleck. He can motivate and recruit!

Source?

 

[Rack Em]

Are you talking about my choice for HC in PJ Fleck. He can motivate and recruit!

 

[gkIrish]

That's crazy. I'm pretty anti-BK but I still want to see the team succeed like crazy. I hope like hell it all comes together and BK becomes a hot name again..and I think that's more likely to happen than him getting fired. I would be completely on board with this anti BK movement if recruiting was also suffering, but it looks like ND is about to land another top 10 class despite all of the issues this year.


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It's not about whether I want the team to succeed or not. I definitely do. It's about what I realistically think will happen, which is that we win 8-9 games no matter who the DC is.

 

[Rack Em]

It's not about whether I want the team to succeed or not. I definitely do. It's about what I realistically think will happen, which is that we win 8-9 games no matter who the DC is.

Well in that case, let's hire Troy from Swamp People.

 

[gkIrish]

Well in that case, let's hire Troy from Swamp People.

My point is I am not happy about this Elko guy pushing us around when this would be an absolute premier job for him. He should take 2-3 year deal and be thrilled. 4 years? GTFO here.

 

[ACamp1900]

Well in that case, let's hire Troy from Swamp People.

"They're tearing us apart with their quick passing game... what do we do coach?"

"CHOOT EM!!"

 

[Rack Em]

"They're tearing us apart with their quick passing game... what do we do coach?"

"CHOOT EM!!"

A simple, yet complex scheme.

 

[bkess8]

"They're tearing us apart with their quick passing game... what do we do coach?"

"CHOOT EM!!"

 

[BobbyMac]

My point is I am not happy about this Elko guy pushing us around when this would be an absolute premier job for him. He should take 2-3 year deal and be thrilled. 4 years? GTFO here.

Just be a fan and understand someone else is footing the bill for your/our pleasure. ND has $10B, maybe $11B thanks to The Donald pushing the market to near 20,000. This isn't a 6 year HC's salary which requires some thought on the buyout.

Who cares if ND over pays him? It's chump change and they'll blow him out if Fleck or whoever doesn't want him.

 

[koonja]

Watching 30 for 30 Cath vs. Convs right now, and we're not even close to a Holtz team. His leadership was unreal. We need him back. Kelly is a tier 7 coach comparatively.

"We are going to win every single game. Not some games, not most games, every single game we ever play. We're going to be perfect, or so close to it that the average person wouldn't know the difference".

 

[IrishLax]

Elko is not Aranda

How is he not? He's almost a carbon copy.

Aranda... 3 years of small-timey DC success at Hawaii and Utah State before moving to a P5 school. Three years at the P5 school taking their defense from 16th to 10th then down to 29th then back up to 7th. Then signs a big deal with LSU.

Elko... 3 years of small-timey DC success at Bowling Green before moving to P5 school. Three years at the P5 school taking their defense from 34th to 37th down to 60th then up to 28th. Then signs a big deal with Notre Dame.

Aranda had a positive delta of 9 spots from taking over. Elko had a positive delta of 6 spots from taking over. Each basically maintained in year 1, had significant regression in year 2, and then significant improvement in year 3 by efficiency metrics.

Mind you, Elko's starting point of "34" is also woefully inflated as Wake Forest was completely bereft of talent and in the three years preceding 2013 they were ranked in the 80s/90s. His "average" rating of his unit over his three years relative to his predecessor is significantly better than Aranda's. Aranda inherited a team that was 27, 20, 55, 16 before he got there with a solid foundation. Wake Forest literally has the least talent of any ACC school.

And using raw/vanilla numbers instead of advanced stats is even more flattering for Elko.

 

[koonja]

Elko has never coached a 4-star player while at WF. Just want to point that out again.

 

[dublinirish]

Elko has never coached a 4-star player while at WF. Just want to point that out again.

are you implying that as a negative? it's a positive in my eyes. Means he did good things with limited raw materials.

 

[BobbyMac]

Elko has never coached a 4-star player while at WF. Just want to point that out again.

Neither had Kelly and he was in the NC game 3 years later. So...

Give Elko a 3 year deal?

 

[koonja]

are you implying that as a negative? it's a positive in my eyes. Means he did good things with limited raw materials.

Neither had Kelly and he was in the NC game 3 years later. So...

Give Elko a 3 year deal?

I'm implying it as a positive. I've heard nothing about him being a good recruiter, but winning at ND recruits itself so I don't think it'll be an issue. He plays great D with no talent. Yes, no talent. When your entire team is filled with 2-3 stars you're hoping play well, it's no talent at this level.

 

[gkIrish]

How is he not? He's almost a carbon copy.

Aranda... 3 years of small-timey DC success at Hawaii and Utah State before moving to a P5 school. Three years at the P5 school taking their defense from 16th to 10th then down to 29th then back up to 7th. Then signs a big deal with LSU.

Elko... 3 years of small-timey DC success at Bowling Green before moving to P5 school. Three years at the P5 school taking their defense from 34th to 37th down to 60th then up to 28th. Then signs a big deal with Notre Dame.

Aranda had a positive delta of 9 spots from taking over. Elko had a positive delta of 6 spots from taking over. Each basically maintained in year 1, had significant regression in year 2, and then significant improvement in year 3 by efficiency metrics.

Mind you, Elko's starting point of "34" is also woefully inflated as Wake Forest was completely bereft of talent and in the three years preceding 2013 they were ranked in the 80s/90s. His "average" rating of his unit over his three years relative to his predecessor is significantly better than Aranda's. Aranda inherited a team that was 27, 20, 55, 16 before he got there with a solid foundation. Wake Forest literally has the least talent of any ACC school.

And using raw/vanilla numbers instead of advanced stats is even more flattering for Elko.

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website). I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago. The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

 

[Irish#1]

Elko is not Aranda

He's every bit as good IMO. You drop him in at LSU with the athletes they get and he'd do every bit as good as Aranda if not better. A HC is judged on wins and losses. You don't judge a coordinator on wins and losses because he doesn't have final say in how a team is put together.

LSU defense averaged 323 YPG and 4.86 YPP. WK 370 YPG and 5.33 YPP. Not a significant difference between the two.

Elko's contract won't have any bearing on if BK survives next year. His performance will contribute to the outcome, but BK won't be retained simply because Elko has a 3 or 4 year contract.

 

[BobbyMac]

I'm implying it as a positive. I've heard nothing about him being a good recruiter, but winning at ND recruits itself so I don't think it'll be an issue. He plays great D with no talent. Yes, no talent. When your entire team is filled with 2-3 stars you're hoping play well, it's no talent at this level.

So you're saying he's pulled off these defensive stats with post-injury Joe Schmidt repliclones.

Then let's move to the next question:

How'd all those 3/2/0 star players get on his roster? He and his staff recruited them...

 

[Free Manera]

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website). I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago. The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

No one is getting pushed around. It is supply and demand. Elko is the best DC out there that is not already in a very good situation, i.e. Venables or Aranda. If ND doesn't give him what the market dictates, someone else will (Florida) and ND is going to promote Elston.

 

[koonja]

So you're saying he's pulled off these defensive stats with post-injury Joe Schmidt repliclones.

Then let's move to the next question:

How'd all those 3/2/0 star players get on his roster? He and his staff recruited them...

I addressed that, but a couple comments. 1) It's Wake Forrest, no good player is going there when they can go to any SEC school, FSU, Clemson, etc. 2) ND sells itself if you win. Hell we have a good class and we're 4-8 with a HC who everyone knows is on the hottest seat.

 

[gkIrish]

No one is getting pushed around. It is supply and demand. Elko is the best DC out there that is not already in a very good situation, i.e. Venables or Aranda. If ND doesn't give him what the market dictates, someone else will (Florida) and ND is going to promote Elston.

Can we take a step back? Can someone provide some sources about Mike Elko interviewing for the Florida job or something similar? I've been seeing this all over the board but Google searches are producing nothing at all saying that. I see some message board chatter about Oregon but that's it. That's why I don't get what is going on. I feel like we are bidding against ourselves.

 

[Irish#1]

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website). I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago. The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

Well there you go, no Wiki page, let's drop him like a hot potato. I have no problems in him negotiating a 4 year deal. If I was in his position I'd want as much security as possible. It's part of the dance.

 

[KyfightingIrish36]

In one of Loy's posts he alluded to Oregon and Florida being the main contenders for Elko.

 

[gkIrish]

In one of Loy's posts he alluded to Oregon and Florida being the main contenders for Elko.

Go on...

 

[bkess8]

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website). I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago. The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

Would you rather have Elston with Zero track record as a DC or Elko with a proven track record of being a DC as schools with less talent?

Easy choice if you ask me, give the guy what hes asking for and lets see what happens. There is a higher probability that he will succeed and maybe he will be asked to stick around when the new coach comes in (whenever that is).

 

[RDU Irish]

Can we take a step back? Can someone provide some sources about Mike Elko interviewing for the Florida job or something similar? I've been seeing this all over the board but Google searches are producing nothing at all saying that. I see some message board chatter about Oregon but that's it. That's why I don't get what is going on. I feel like we are bidding against ourselves.

Who cares - pay him well to get ND marked as a place that that not only pays coordinators well - but commits to more guaranteed money. If he proves to be a hot commodity you protect yourself from getting poached, if he sucks you still aren't out much in the grand scheme of things.

The endowment talk in relation to football salaries is moronic, BTW. Football is a profit center and I guarantee they can track the lost revenue as a result of sucking on the field. There is plenty of revenue into the football office to validate any decision they want to make across the board. At the same time - being able to pay does not equal being willing to pay.

 

[gkIrish]

Who cares - pay him well to get ND marked as a place that that not only pays coordinators well - but commits to more guaranteed money. If he proves to be a hot commodity you protect yourself from getting poached, if he sucks you still aren't out much in the grand scheme of things.

The endowment talk in relation to football salaries is moronic, BTW. Football is a profit center and I guarantee they can track the lost revenue as a result of sucking on the field. There is plenty of revenue into the football office to validate any decision they want to make across the board. At the same time - being able to pay does not equal being willing to pay.

It's common knowledge that BK was retained this year because the buyout was too big to justify hiring anyone but a sure thing. So how can you tell me that they can validate any decision they want to make?