ND Coaching Changes 2016

[gkIrish]

Would you rather have Elston with Zero track record as a DC or Elko with a proven track record of being a DC as schools with less talent?

Easy choice if you ask me, give the guy what hes asking for and lets see what happens. There is a higher probability that he will succeed and maybe he will be asked to stick around when the new coach comes in (whenever that is).

I would rather have Elston for 1 year than Elko for 4.

My head hurts, I was making the same arguments when Kelly was extended and no one agreed with me so I'm clearly not going to convince anyone. I'm tapping out.

 

[PANDFAN]

In one of Loy's posts he alluded to Oregon and Florida being the main contenders for Elko.

THAT'S OLD....florida hadn't reached out to him, oregon did but went w/ jim

 

[koonja]

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website). I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago. The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

This is beautiful, I'd love to see the admin respond to this in front of an audience. They are soft. Charmin soft.

 

[bkess8]

I would rather have Elston for 1 year than Elko for 4.

My head hurts, I was making the same arguments when Kelly was extended and no one agreed with me so I'm clearly not going to convince anyone. I'm tapping out.

I understand what your saying but hear me out. What if we give Elko his 4 year contract and he comes in and shows improvement on the defensive side of the ball. When/if Kelly leaves and say Fleck comes in why wouldn't he want to keep Elko on staff knowing he showed improvement with the current players and also has 1 season of the ND environment under his belt?

 

[rocket66]

The worst argument from any ND fan is making a stink over buy outs. None of us foot the bill nor do we sign the contracts. Getting caught up in financial details is stupid imo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[IrishLax]

There's a BIG difference in fielding a top 10 defense vs. a top 30 defense. You can stare at numbers all you want but Elko can't hold Aranda's jock (btw Elko had 5 years at Bowling Green, not 3 according to WF website).

I like Elko and would not mind if he is our DC, but this guy literally was on no one's radar prior to about 2 months ago.

But now he is. He was on our radar, Florida's radar, Oregon's radar, etc. That's how these thing work. No one had even heard of Sanford on this board until ND and Ohio State went after him. No one talked about Mike MacIntyre and Colorado until a few months ago, either. When you get results you can have a meteoric rise. Everyone in the ACC was impressed as hell with what Elko did this past year, so now he's a hot name.

The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find). Wake Forest in terms of prestige is about as far from Notre Dame as you can get and we are getting pushed around by their former DC? Give me a break. We are a soft program, soft administration, and soft in every way. Man the fuck up and tell this guy to take a hike if he doesn't want to take something reasonable.

Scorching hot take. Doesn't really make sense for Elko or any coach. If you think someone is the right guy for the job, you should do whatever it takes financially to make that happen. Period. The only time you shouldn't is when such a deal would financially hamstring you and prevent you from making subsequent other moves you need to make (see: Kelly). No one at ND is going to lose sleep over $1 million dollars, which is effectively what we're talking about between 3 and 4 years.

And he has leverage, because other schools want him. We should be applauding Notre Dame opening the checkbook for who they consider the #1 option.

I guess this is what happens when you go 4-8. Nobody's start pushing you around.

No. This is what happens when you are pursuing a coach that is in demand. It's how Aranda, Chavis, Pruitt, Matt Canada, Orlando, and many other mediocre coordinators all got the deals they did in the SEC. Big boy schools need to pay big boy money. If we won't, Florida or someone else will for Elko. We are not bidding against ourselves (see: BVG making north of a million to do nothing but destroy the defense). I imagine his total compensation will ultimately be pretty close to what Van Gorder made, but with more security to protect him and ND.

 

[irish o'phile]

At least Elko comes in on a positive trajectory and is highly regarded. BVG was hired after being run out of CFB for being terrible. In retrospect, that was bound to end poorly.

 

[IrishLax]

The worst argument from any ND fan is making a stink over buy outs. None of us foot the bill nor do we sign the contracts. Getting caught up in financial details is stupid imo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly. No one should give a single shit about the money unless it affects the ability to do other things needed to help the program.

A $25mil extension for Kelly is a gut punch. A $1mil difference in what a coordinator is mosquito bite.

 

[Ndaccountant]

My point is I am not happy about this Elko guy pushing us around when this would be an absolute premier job for him. He should take 2-3 year deal and be thrilled. 4 years? GTFO here.

I have been more or less aligned with your thinking the past few 8 weeks or so. That said, I am not with you here. I agree that the perception of having a DC jerk you around and potentially impacting a head coaching move probably isn't the best. That said, defense is what truly separates the good teams from great teams in CFB.

Take a look at the chart below. Of the top 15 most efficient defenses last year (Wake was 15th) only Colorado & App State has a lower talent grade than Wake. Additionally, last years performance wasn't that much statistically better or worse than Elko's career average. Again, of the top 15 efficient defenses, only 3 DC's had a smaller deviation to their career mean (Venables, Parker & Kwiatkowski). Finally, only 1 DC in the top 15 had more plays per game than Elko (thus harder to maintain efficiency) and that was Gibson at WVU (two DC's faced the same - Venables and Kwiatkowski) .

Considering the talent gap at WF, Elko got an A+ grade and the season wasn't a huge deviation from his mean. To me, this guy is up there with the best of them and ND is lucky to have him aboard, either short term or long term.

Defensive Per Play Efficiency Grades and Rankings - CFB Matrix

 

[Wingman Ray]

Watching 30 for 30 Cath vs. Convs right now, and we're not even close to a Holtz team. His leadership was unreal. We need him back. Kelly is a tier 7 coach comparatively.

"We are going to win every single game. Not some games, not most games, every single game we ever play. We're going to be perfect, or so close to it that the average person wouldn't know the difference".

It was because Holtz was the flippin MAN! I cant believe ND was so incredibly stupid to push him out. Hate it because the fans suffered but ND got exactly what they deserved, years of mediocrity and garbage football after such a stupid move.

Unfortunately, Im sure neither had any impact on that moron ND president at the time that retired to quite a cushion retirement pension.

 

[IrishLax]

I addressed that, but a couple comments. 1) It's Wake Forrest, no good player is going there when they can go to any SEC school, FSU, Clemson, etc. 2) ND sells itself if you win. Hell we have a good class and we're 4-8 with a HC who everyone knows is on the hottest seat.

Yes, Wake Forest is like Vandy in the SEC... except without quite the elite academics, no resources dedicated to football, and absolutely nothing from a development/recent success standpoint to sell. Freaking Duke will trump Wake for all local recruits. It is arguably the hardest P5 job to recruit to besides maybe Iowa State.

 

[irish o'phile]

I have been more or less aligned with your thinking the past few 8 weeks or so. That said, I am not with you here. I agree that the perception of having a DC jerk you around and potentially impacting a head coaching move probably isn't the best. That said, defense is what truly separates the good teams from great teams in CFB.

Take a look at the chart below. Of the top 15 most efficient defenses last year (Wake was 15th) only Colorado & App State has a lower talent grade than Wake. Additionally, last years performance wasn't that much statistically better or worse than Elko's career average. Again, of the top 15 efficient defenses, only 3 DC's had a smaller deviation to their career mean (Venables, Parker & Kwiatkowski). Finally, only 1 DC in the top 15 had more plays per game than Elko (thus harder to maintain efficiency) and that was Gibson at WVU (two DC's faced the same - Venables and Kwiatkowski) .

Considering the talent gap at WF, Elko got an A+ grade and the season wasn't a huge deviation from his mean. To me, this guy is up there with the best of them and ND is lucky to have him aboard, either short term or long term.

Defensive Per Play Efficiency Grades and Rankings - CFB Matrix

That chart is awesome. It makes me feel good about the potential hire.

 

[gkIrish]

I have been more or less aligned with your thinking the past few 8 weeks or so. That said, I am not with you here. I agree that the perception of having a DC jerk you around and potentially impacting a head coaching move probably isn't the best. That said, defense is what truly separates the good teams from great teams in CFB.

Take a look at the chart below. Of the top 15 most efficient defenses last year (Wake was 15th) only Colorado & App State has a lower talent grade than Wake. Additionally, last years performance wasn't that much statistically better or worse than Elko's career average. Again, of the top 15 efficient defenses, only 3 DC's had a smaller deviation to their career mean (Venables, Parker & Kwiatkowski). Finally, only 1 DC in the top 15 had more plays per game than Elko (thus harder to maintain efficiency) and that was Gibson at WVU (two DC's faced the same - Venables and Kwiatkowski) .

Considering the talent gap at WF, Elko got an A+ grade and the season wasn't a huge deviation from his mean. To me, this guy is up there with the best of them and ND is lucky to have him aboard, either short term or long term.

Defensive Per Play Efficiency Grades and Rankings - CFB Matrix

Can you provide a chart that takes into account the final two games of WF's (and everyone else's) schedule?

 

[kmoose]

None of this point makes any sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It does if you take into account that gk has been on the "Fire Kelly" bandwagon since early last season. If he's honest with himself, I would bet his opinions now are more about wanting to have been right all along, rather than wanting whatever works for Notre Dame.

 

[gkIrish]

It does if you take into account that gk has been on the "Fire Kelly" bandwagon since early last season. If he's honest with himself, I would bet his opinions now are more about wanting to have been right all along, rather than wanting whatever works for Notre Dame.

Some people have a 5 year mindset while others just want to do whatever it takes to win the next game.

 

[gkIrish]

This has a "well we can't fire the head coach but our fans our PISSED so let's overpay a DC to try and get us to 9 wins next year so we can keep BK yet another year" vibe to it.

I admit I sound a little crazy and I'm not explaining myself very well but I think this is going to backfire in the sense that we are diminishing our leverage in contract talks with coaching candidates in general if we give this guy 4 years.

 

[beryirish]

This has a "well we can't fire the head coach but our fans our PISSED so let's overpay a DC to try and get us to 9 wins next year so we can keep BK yet another year" vibe to it.

I admit I sound a little crazy and I'm not explaining myself very well but I think this is going to backfire in the sense that we are diminishing our leverage in contract talks with coaching candidates in general if we give this guy 4 years.

Speculating.

If it's a coach like Fleck who would come say next year, i'm sure he would be thrilled to have a proven asset like Elko.

 

[Blaise]

It's common knowledge that BK was retained this year because the buyout was too big to justify hiring anyone but a sure thing. So how can you tell me that they can validate any decision they want to make?

I disagree greatly with this.. I had the chance to talk with Eric Hansen recently and he doesn't believe keeping Kelly was buyout related at all. Jack was disappointed with this season, but Jack would most likely give Kelly another year even without the buyout..

I'm not sure if Kelly is the guy. You obviously have made up your mind years ago which is fine. But sometimes I think you say things like Common Knowledge to support your point really from coming from message boards or rumors.

I think a 9 win season next year does get Kelly another year no matter how we all feel. I think this team is set up for a 2018 run to the playoffs and 9 wins most likely convinces Jack that Kelly has them back on track for that.

Getting Elko only makes the administration more secure about their decisions

 

[Ndaccountant]

Can you provide a chart that takes into account the final two games of WF's (and everyone else's) schedule?

That was the last one the website I had. I will search to see if I can find something similar, but the iterations he had throughout the year didn't adjust Elko nor his slotting very much.

 

[STLDomer]

The guy doesn't even have a Wikipedia page (that I could find).

Yeah definitely means he's not that good of a DC

 

[IrishLion]

I would rather have Elston for 1 year than Elko for 4.

My head hurts, I was making the same arguments when Kelly was extended and no one agreed with me so I'm clearly not going to convince anyone. I'm tapping out.

This has a "well we can't fire the head coach but our fans our PISSED so let's overpay a DC to try and get us to 9 wins next year so we can keep BK yet another year" vibe to it.

I admit I sound a little crazy and I'm not explaining myself very well but I think this is going to backfire in the sense that we are diminishing our leverage in contract talks with coaching candidates in general if we give this guy 4 years.

I think I understand your concern, in that it's setting a bad precedent in terms of future negotiations and leverage, and those future negotiations are inevitable, in your view, because Kelly is probably gone next year regardless of the DC unless he wins 10+ games.

LAX kind of hit on it above, but I think your concern with the DC money isn't actually a huge issue. You're right about the bolded, in that you saw the potential hazards of "settling" on Kelly too soon with big money, but you shouldn't let that weigh heavily on your opinion of the DC situation.

Spending big money on a head coach, and doing so too soon, is a huge financial road block for future issues, as we are seeing now. However, even if you're paying a potential DC "big" money for a long initial contract (4 years), that's not going to be a roadblock at all if future changes need to be made before the contract is up, because DC money is essentially throw-away money in the eyes of an admin that wants to make big changes, regardless of the terms of the contract.

If Elko were to get a four-year deal for big money, but then Kelly gets fired next year and you also have to let go of Elko for some reason, you're essentially just paying an extra years' worth of BK's buyout to get them both out of the door... and that's a drop in the bucket when you consider the money already being spent to make the change.

 

[IrishLax]

I disagree greatly with this.. I had the chance to talk with Eric Hansen recently and he doesn't believe keeping Kelly was buyout related at all. Jack was disappointed with this season, but Jack would most likely give Kelly another year even without the buyout..

I'm not sure if Kelly is the guy. You obviously have made up your mind years ago which is fine. But sometimes I think you say things like Common Knowledge to support your point really from coming from message boards or rumors.

I think a 9 win season next year does get Kelly another year no matter how we all feel. I think this team is set up for a 2018 run to the playoffs and 9 wins most likely convinces Jack that Kelly has them back on track for that.

Getting Elko only makes the administration more secure about their decisions

Eric Hansen knows less about the innerworkings of ND football than at least 20 posters on this board.

As an aside, he also blocked GK on Twitter for like... I don't even remember. It was absurd though. So, just thought it was funny that in a discussion with GK that's the guy brought up haha...

 

[gkIrish]

I disagree greatly with this.. I had the chance to talk with Eric Hansen recently and he doesn't believe keeping Kelly was buyout related at all. Jack was disappointed with this season, but Jack would most likely give Kelly another year even without the buyout..

I'm not sure if Kelly is the guy. You obviously have made up your mind years ago which is fine. But sometimes I think you say things like Common Knowledge to support your point really from coming from message boards or rumors.

I think a 9 win season next year does get Kelly another year no matter how we all feel. I think this team is set up for a 2018 run to the playoffs and 9 wins most likely convinces Jack that Kelly has them back on track for that.

Getting Elko only makes the administration more secure about their decisions

(1) Eric Hansen is a tool (2) There are posters on here I trust and sources of my own that have confirmed a move would have been made this year if there was a coach who was worth eating BK's money available. You can choose to believe it or not.

Yeah definitely means he's not that good of a DC

I never said he wasn't a good DC. I said he has no leverage yet we are acting like he does. The Wikipedia thing just illustrates that he is only a hot name right now because we are desperate not because anyone really cared about him prior to two months ago. I am still waiting for someone to show me the source saying Florida or Oregon are interviewing him.

Speculating.

If it's a coach like Fleck who would come say next year, i'm sure he would be thrilled to have a proven asset like Elko.

Why the hell would we not have hired Fleck this year then? The answer is either (a) he is not a viable option or (b) they didn't want to eat an extra $5 million of the buyout.

 

[gkIrish]

I think I understand your concern, in that it's setting a bad precedent in terms of future negotiations and leverage, and those future negotiations are inevitable, in your view, because Kelly is probably gone next year regardless of the DC unless he wins 10+ games.

Yes. Thank you for explaining it better than I did.

If Elko were to get a four-year deal for big money, but then Kelly gets fired next year and you also have to let go of Elko for some reason, you're essentially just paying an extra years' worth of BK's buyout to get them both out of the door... and that's a drop in the bucket when you consider the money already being spent to make the change.

"One year of BK's buyout" was the difference this year. That's why I'm concerned about basically adding that amount back into the total indebtedness of our coaching staff. If $4-5 million was enough to prevent action this year, why would that not be the case again next year if we were to win say 8 games?

 

[irishff1014]

I think it is funny that people asked for change and that'spossibly going to happen people are still crying.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Are "de-escalators" a thing? Pardon me if that's far from the proper term. What I mean: Do coaching contracts have clauses or language in them that reduce buyouts per certain conditions, such as winning less than 18 games over the last two years?

 

[KyfightingIrish36]

I was just stating where that information came from there has been no further acknowledgement of Florida making contact.

 

[IrishLion]

"One year of BK's buyout" was the difference this year. That's why I'm concerned about basically adding that amount back into the total indebtedness of our coaching staff. If $4-5 million was enough to prevent action this year, why would that not be the case again next year if we were to win say 8 games?

I think it was the large total buyout (~$25 million), combined with poor timing (a year removed from a NY6 bowl, whether it was a fluke or not), combined with a poor job market (some nice candidates out there, but none ready for ND quite yet).

So his buyout was the main issue, but you can't just look at the money is isolation, especially if you believe the gossip that we almost moved on from BK, even CONSIDERING the money.

The large buyout was the main factor because of it's relationship to other factors; those other factors aren't going to be there to help BK's cause if there is another poor season.

 

[kmoose]

My point is I am not happy about this Elko guy pushing us around when this would be an absolute premier job for him. He should take 2-3 year deal and be thrilled. 4 years? GTFO here.

You seem to be making a TON of assumptions in the last day or two.

I have been busy with work and haven't been able to follow the situation as closely as I normally do, but what person of authority at Notre Dame came out and announced that BK would have been fired, if only it wasn't cost-prohibitive? And who said that Elko is pushing ND around? Maybe the University just wants some stability at DC, and figures Elko is the guy who can do it? Or maybe they have already talked to some big name folks who expressed concern about the uncertainty with the Head Coach and so they decided to present "their guy" with a long term offer?

 

[gkIrish]

I think it was the large total buyout (~$25 million), combined with poor timing (a year removed from a NY6 bowl, whether it was a fluke or not), combined with a poor job market (some nice candidates out there, but none ready for ND quite yet).

So his buyout was the main issue, but you can't just look at the money is isolation, especially if you believe the gossip that we almost moved on from BK, even CONSIDERING the money.

The large buyout was the main factor because of it's relationship to other factors; those other factors aren't going to be there to help BK's cause if there is another poor season.

I guess to put it in simple terms:

2016: We are 4-8 but $5 million is too much to give up considering the coaching market.
2017: We are 8-4 so $5 million is way too much to give up considering fans aren't that pissed at us.