Jan 9 | Penn State

[Wild Bill]

ND offensive penalties stopped more drives against Georgia than Georgia's defense. I don’t mean that as a slight to Georgia’s defense - they are really good and talented, but all they really had to do was wait for ND to commit a penalty and then clamp down to force a punt.

First drive, Leonard double throw – punt. False start kills the second drive – punt. No penalties on the third possession – field goal. No penalties on the fourth possession doesn't end in points but they flip field and pin Georgia so they are able to score points on penalty free fifth possession. The last three drives of the game - holding call brought back a big run, and they turned it over on downs, illegal motion forced them to kick a field goal rather than continue the drive and last possession an illegal formation forced a punt.

They didn't convert a single first down after committing a penalty on offense. They did kick a FG after a penalty, but they were already in range, and the penalty took away a first down that may have ended in a TD.

I see this game being similar. ND offense isn't pretty, but it's efficient and will put up 30+ if they play a clean game. If they don't, PSU defense is good enough to shut them down when they're not on schedule with down/distance.

 

[Kingbish01]

Walked into work today and a few UGA buddies all said "PSU is going to Kill you guys" and I said "Wow, so you guys really feel PSU is that much better than UGA, I'm shocked but I get it" The stuttering that followed couldn't have been acted out better in a movie.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

To be honest, I dont think we have had to show too much to offensively to win the games which is remarkable. If you told me that we would have only 90 passing yards and Love would only have 4-5 carries, and we won Id have laughed. Were in control of IU from the start and the game was never really in question against UGA the way our D was playing. Incredible stuff.

I think you're right. When ND got the ball following the Oben sack/fumble they scored in one play on a slant 15-16 yards downfield. I'm not sure they tried anything that deep the rest of the night (excepting the "free play" on that Georgia offsides that should have been caught). They spent the entire second half with a double digit lead.

I'm optimistic that ND has been building up and sitting on quite a bit in the passing game.

 

[forkbeard3777]

I think if Leonard can have an effective passing day, ND should expect to score 3 offensive touchdowns. They gave up 40 or whatever to Oregon. 30 to USC and 20 to OSU but that could have been much worse (Howard fumble, ran out clock on most of 4Q)

PSU has more talent than past on D for sure but Diaz to Allen was a large downgrade

I think Leonard has to have an effective passing day. I'm not implying he must go out and resemble Burrow and 2019 LSU, but throwing for 90 yards just can't continue to work. It puts too much pressure on the offensive line, running game, and defense. A complimentary passing game (shit, just get around 170 yards and no turnovers) will make the rushing attack that much more lethal. The Indiana game (sans the interception) was perfect - around 200 yards, TD pass, and a nice long pass to Faison.

 

[stlnd01]

Just because he was at the trophy presentation doesn't mean the injury isn't that bad. Go back and watch that and he barely moves that arm and holds up the trophy with only his right/non-injured arm.

No, I know. I saw that clip. But having had a couple of full shoulder dislocations myself, it's not the sort of thing where you're in the mood to lift any trophies for awhile. And he wasn't in a sling.

 

[Dale]

Franklin is not transparent at all with injuries. I don’t trust a thing he says or does one way or another with regards to Carter

 

[Katzenboyer]

Random q for those going/with knowledge of Hard Rock Stadium - is there decent tailgating in the yellow lots? Ended up snagging one of those parking passes - but wondering if it would be worth it to upgrade to the orange lots via stubhub. Definitely way more $, but the tailgating in 2012 was epic so if getting into orange is the way to recreate that, I think it would be worth it!

Buy the Orange Lot pass. Thank me later.

 

[NDPhilly]

ND jumped from -1.5 to -2.5 today on DraftKings. Wonder if that’s Abdul carter related.

 

[Katzenboyer]

Rewatching some PSU defensive highlights and something that stands out is the overall lack of team speed.

Some of those guys on the back end are slooooooooow.

 

[forkbeard3777]

Franklin is not transparent at all with injuries. I don’t trust a thing he says or does one way or another with regards to Carter

That guy is a rat. I was in grad school at Vanderbilt when he was there...many of the Vandy boosters (who are all pretty stand up, genuine people) hated how he departed. That guy used the Penn State 18-wheeler to haul his shit out of Nashville.

James Franklin addresses exit from Vanderbilt
On the Betrayal of James Franklin

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I think you're right. When ND got the ball following the Oben sack/fumble they scored in one play on a slant 15-16 yards downfield. I'm not sure they tried anything that deep the rest of the night (excepting the "free play" on that Georgia offsides that should have been caught). They spent the entire second half with a double digit lead.

I'm optimistic that ND has been building up and sitting on quite a bit in the passing game.

Right. I bet they when into field position and clock killing to shorten the game and used RL when needed to pick up first downs and extend the drive. All the plays were safe and vanilla. I remember in the chat so many people saying “why are we running up the middle” lol. I’d say this is a great reason why.

Derick is a great OC and I have no doubts he knows what he is doing much better than us armchair coordinators trying to figure out why he doing what he is doing.

 

[ozzman]

Jamie making me feel much better after listening to Andy and Ari thinking PSU is the second coming. Jamie is very confident

 

[Wild Bill]

ND jumped from -1.5 to -2.5 today on DraftKings. Wonder if that’s Abdul carter related.

Last I checked, about 65% of the money is on ND so the movement could simply be an attempt to even out the money.

 

[NDohio]

Just a reminder that Penn State has lost their backup QB to the portal already. If ND can get to Allar and beat him up a little bit, they have to go to their third option.

 

[forkbeard3777]

He's also an absolute head case. They don't even need to hit him if they can pick one off early and get him frustrated.

He's got a fucking perm. Of course he's a head case.

That said, he does have a big arm and can run decently well for his size. Christian Gray will need to be ready. I have a feeling they'll be throwing his direction a bunch.

 

[Newc]

He's got a fucking perm. Of course he's a head case.

That said, he does have a big arm and can run decently well for his size. Christian Gray will need to be ready. I have a feeling they'll be throwing his direction a bunch.

Do any of their receivers have the speed to challenge him though? Gray seems to only get into trouble when he is beat on the outside and needs to catch back up.

 

[forkbeard3777]

Do any of their receivers have the speed to challenge him though? Gray seems to only get into trouble when he is beat on the outside and needs to catch back up.

I'm not really too sure. Maybe someone can chime in. From what I've seen from Penn State, their TE, Warren, is definitely the receiving threat/target. Please chime in if I'm incorrect here, but I remember Gray being the primary target for USC and Georgia.

 

[PutuporShutup]

I'm not really too sure. Maybe someone can chime in. From what I've seen from Penn State, their TE, Warren, is definitely the receiving threat/target. Please chime in if I'm incorrect here, but I remember Gray being the primary target for USC and Georgia.

Evans is very fast, but he's really just a go route runner, and he does most of his damage from the slot getting lined up on a safety. We'll have Clark on him when penn state is in 3 WR looks.

 

[RDU Irish]

I have two in row 2 of section 356 if anyone is still on the fence.

 

[Free Manera]

Ohio State took Warren away almost completely. That was at a time when OSU wasn't playing all that well. They bracketed him and Allar looked bad.

ND has to stop the run, bracket Warren, and dare broccoli cut to make plays. Allar has been extremely rattle-able. When things aren't going his away he is chirping at the refs and his opponents after every play and wears his frustration on his sleeve. If he plays out of his mind and drops dimes, so be it.

 

[LifelongFan]

Penn State has avoided good defenses all year outside of Ohio State. I am hoping this will be a bit of a major culture shock for them.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I was hopeful ND would beat Georgia. I 100% expect ND to beat PSU, and I'm not drinking the kool aid. Carter or no Carter, Love or no Love.

 

[stlnd01]

Ohio State took Warren away almost completely. That was at a time when OSU wasn't playing all that well. They bracketed him and Allar looked bad.

ND has to stop the run, bracket Warren, and dare broccoli cut to make plays. Allar has been extremely rattle-able. When things aren't going his away he is chirping at the refs and his opponents after every play and wears his frustration on his sleeve. If he plays out of his mind and drops dimes, so be it.

This former Penn State OL turned VERY good football twitter analyst (who looks to have immense respect for our D) predicts we'll do just that and it will be a problem for them.

 

[IrishWayDomer]

Power hour. Jamie thinks Abdul separated his shoulder.

 

[SDIrishFan]

Power hour. Jamie thinks Abdul separated his shoulder.

No shot he's effective a week later if that's the case. First shot he takes eliminates all the recovery he had. Not to mention virtually no strength to push or pull.

This would be a much bigger loss for them than Love is for ND

 

[Huntr]

ND jumped from -1.5 to -2.5 today on DraftKings. Wonder if that’s Abdul carter related.

Since you've started checking out Prediction Tracker, look at the accuracy of the mid-week line update for the season.

I've used that site for 5 or 6 years now for my work pick ems, and that is consistently one of the best predictors for both SU and ATS.

Donchess (D Rating) and a couple of Sagarin's models are right with it, tho.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Since you've started checking out Prediction Tracker, look at the accuracy of the mid-week line update for the season.

I've used that site for 5 or 6 years now for my work pick ems, and that is consistently one of the best predictors for both SU and ATS.

Donchess (D Rating) and a couple of Sagarin's models are right with it, tho.

Are you saying mid-week updates to the line tend to be strong predictors of outcome?

 

[Huntr]

Are you saying mid-week updates to the line tend to be strong predictors of outcome?

Imagine that


edit: although my point was more about its strength relative to other predictors. I may not have made that clear.

 

[Jiggafini19Deux]

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Imagine that


edit: although my point was more about its strength relative to other predictors. I may not have made that clear.

It was an honest question. Is mid-week a better predictor than early or late movement in the line?