IE's 2012 Pre-Spring Game Predictions

[DomeX2 eNVy]

A few people have thrown out numbers in various threads, but I couldn't find a prediction thread yet, and it is a slow Saturday . . . so, here it goes:

Overall, I think the schedule is more difficult (replacing Maryland, South Florida, and Air Force with Oklahoma, BYU, and Miami - yeah, not easier), and Stanford will not drop off much despite losing Luck.

My guess of ND's probability of winning by game:
Navy (Dublin) 88% - You never know with Navy but ND should win easy
Purdue 97% - Expect the domination to continue
@ Michigan St 55% - A slight MSU drop off, but always a tough fight & road game
Michigan 62% - Hold onto the damn ball and stop Denard, should be favored
Miami (Chicago) 85% - Depends on Miami's development, but Irish should win
Stanford 45% - They have owned us
BYU 85% - Irish are more talented; But this year's trap game
@ Oklahoma 24% - Potential top 5 team on the road - could win, but . . .
Pittsburgh 91% - Need to stay focused after OU and not repeat last year
@ Boston College 84% - Always wary of BC on the road
Wake Forest 95% - Expect the Irish to be expecting a game this time
@ USC 18% - Most difficult game of the year.

Sum this all up and it calculates to 8.29 win.

12-0 337:1
11-1 30:1
10-2 7.3:1
9-3 3.7:1
8-4 3.4:1
7-5 5.6:1
6-6 15:1
5-7 65:1
<5 wins 404:1

So, I'm going with 8-4.
Last year I had 9-3, which we have a good chance of ending at again; but more likely to drop to 7 wins than get to 10.

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

10-2... Losses to Oklahoma and USC.

 

[Irish Fam]

10-2... Losses to Oklahoma and USC.

This.

 

[SaltyND24]

10-2... Losses to Oklahoma and USC.

I would have to think that a 10-2 record would not only earn us a BCS berth (duh) but would have to put us as a favorite for a NC run in '13...Also, if this were to happen with Golson at the helm, would that set the stage for a Gunner transfer...??? I just can't see if we manage that record this season there being any kind of QB controversy moving forward...but stranger things have happened

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

Well then, let's hope we don't win 10 then so as not to **** off Gunner Kiel.

 

[SaltyND24]

Well then, let's hope we don't win 10 then so as not to **** off Gunner Kiel.

I know right? Let's go 7-5...Who all would like to see more QB controversy say yea...

 

[NDhoosier]

i dont think gunner will transfer just because he wouldnt be able to start all 4 years. I expect him to be redshirted for the 2012 season and if Golson does well in 2012, Golson will start again in 2013. If Gunner starts in 2014, he will have 3 years of eligibility left. Not many athletes start all four years at a program of Notre Dame's caliber... Gunner shouldnt expect to.

 

[SJIrish]

7-5, this team needs to get tougher and stop beating themselves. If those things happen they could be better, but they have to prove it first.

 

[NDPhilly]

Martin will not put up with the turnovers. I think our QB play with Golson will be vastly improved.

 

[OCIrish]

We've been 8-5 the last two years, I don't see any reason to not keep that trend going.

 

[notredomer23]

10-2 or 9-3. USC and Oklahoma. We need to beat Michigan.

 

[gkIrish]

9-3 losses to USC, Michigan, and ?. We shock Oklahoma but lose a random game to someone else

 

[Irish Fam]

Michigan is beatable just as they were last year. Will be a huge game and I think sets the tone for the rest of the season. If we win, we knock of USC or Oklahoma.

Michigan State lost their best defensive player, QB, and top wideout. They still will have a good running game and solid defense. Should be a close game, but edge goes to ND.

Stanford lost their QB and their leader in Andrew Luck. Their O'line also took a huge hit with their top two players going to the NFL. Their defense will be good again, but I think we have more talent than them and should win.

Oklahoma and USC will be an uphill battle. But, I think we can beat one of them if we go through the first half of our season undefeated

 

[Irish Man3]

9-3

Improved team but an inexperianced qb and a tough schedule should help us temper expectations.

 

[ACamp1900]

I believe the OU game is by far our hardest... I don't buy into SC being this elite title contender next year, their depth is just waiting to screw them... and other than the passing game, what unit of theirs is proven cream??? I think a lot of people are just assuming they'll stay healthy and the rest of the team will match the passing game.

anyway,... until ND has a season where something other happens... they won't win a 'big game'... they'll beat one or two decent teams and lose to one or two we all feel they should beat...

it is what it is, until it isn't...

Anything can happen but the safe beat is 8-9 wins...

I think the OU game could be ugly... One of the hardest teams to beat at home in ALL of sports... and OU is not the type to pull back at home if they get up big, they keep dropping points... they embarrass teams at home of all calibers often enough that anyone should know a game in Norman has 'ugly' potential for any team.

If they can win one of those two though (SC or OU) I'm happy... My wife's family are OU or Texas Alums (Including my wife... OU) and of course SC fans are doomed to hell so....

 

[UmphreakDomer]

10-2 or 9-3. USC and Oklahoma. We need to beat Michigan.

and state.

 

[Anchorman]

8-4.

USC, Oklahoma, MSU or UM, and a headscratcher.

 

[koonja]

We'll be a cute 8-4 team.

 

[Cali_domer]

7-5 or 5-7 if the wheels fall off.

 

[irishff1014]

I believe the OU game is by far our hardest... I don't buy into SC being this elite title contender next year, their depth is just waiting to screw them... and other than the passing game, what unit of theirs is proven cream??? I think a lot of people are just assuming they'll stay healthy and the rest of the team will match the passing game.

anyway,... until ND has a season where something other happens... they won't win a 'big game'... they'll beat one or two decent teams and lose to one or two we all feel they should beat...

it is what it is, until it isn't...

Anything can happen but the safe beat is 8-9 wins...

I think the OU game could be ugly... One of the hardest teams to beat at home in ALL of sports... and OU is not the type to pull back at home if they get up big, they keep dropping points... they embarrass teams at home of all calibers often enough that anyone should know a game in Norman has 'ugly' potential for any team.

If they can win one of those two though (SC or OU) I'm happy... My wife's family are OU or Texas Alums (Including my wife... OU) and of course SC fans are doomed to hell so....

Depends on what you consider a blow out. I looked at their last 2 years and picked the games they won by 20 points or more. It was 8 out of 14 1 game better then .500. Included in that 8 is Iowa State 2 times and Ball state once. I will even put Colorado on here because they have struggled the last couple years. With that said 4 of the 8 teams ar really not that good at all. I would put tulsa on this list but they beats us. One of the Iowa state games the score was 26-6 really isnt that bad. I would love t say we one 8 of our last 14 homes games by 20 but it is a little overrated.

 

[Chicago Irish Fan]

We don't know if we can turn the ball over less than 2-3 times per game, who's playing QB, who will step up at WR, who will replace Gray's production at RB, if anyone can play even half decent in the secondary, if our linebackers can properly defend the pass, or if we can have more than .3 yards per return on punts. There are way, way, way too many question marks on this team for me to hope for anything more than 8 wins. And this is coming from a guy who thought we were BCS bound last year and a huge Kelly supporter.

 

[AllGoldEverything]

8-4

With next years schedule and a first year starter at QB, I dont see us doin much better than that.

 

[returnofthemack]

My predictions: Tommy Rees starts. ND torches Navy and Purdue, narrowly beat MSU, hype builds to peak level before a night game with scUM, we come out incredibly flat, get blown out, lose to UM in Chicago, lose to Stanford, beat BYU, get absolutely pummeled by Oklahoma, Kelly finally starts Golson, and ND proceeds to beat Pitt, BC, Wake, hype builds to possibly upset USC, ND fails to stay within two TDs. 7-5.

 

[Who'saWildManNow]

My predictions: Tommy Rees starts. ND torches Navy and Purdue, narrowly beat MSU, hype builds to peak level before a night game with scUM, we come out incredibly flat, get blown out, lose to UM in Chicago, lose to Stanford, beat BYU, get absolutely pummeled by Oklahoma, Kelly finally starts Golson, and ND proceeds to beat Pitt, BC, Wake, hype builds to possibly upset USC, ND fails to stay within two TDs. 7-5.

No way.. that's awful. I cringed reading that.

I will avoid giving an exact prediction but my expectations have simmered for sure..

Year after year I expect the grand return to national prominence and year after year I replace tv remotes, apologize to my cat, call my dad drunk to yell and face a week after week kick to the nuts.

It's like when I was a kid and I was sure this christmas box was the Nintendo I had long been waiting for but no, it was a pair of khakis, a button-down and a tie.. and I had to go put it on immediately cause we were leaving for church in 10 minutes........ Frustration.

But this year is different. I can honestly say I don't expect the return of ND to happen in 2012.

I do, however, expect to see the players giving every single ounce of everything they have while trying to get better and win. I want to see leaders emerge on both sides of the ball and a quarterback to solidify the position.

I want to see Kelly having fun on the sidelines during a game.

I'll be happy if I can see hard work and progress. That way I can expect the return to national prominence in 2013!

 

[georgia irish]

We change QB'S and lose only 1 game.

 

[returnofthemack]

No way.. that's awful. I cringed reading that.

I will avoid giving an exact prediction but my expectations have simmered for sure..

Year after year I expect the grand return to national prominence and year after year I replace tv remotes, apologize to my cat, call my dad drunk to yell and face a week after week kick to the nuts.

It's like when I was a kid and I was sure this christmas box was the Nintendo I had long been waiting for but no, it was a pair of khakis, a button-down and a tie.. and I had to go put it on immediately cause we were leaving for church in 10 minutes........ Frustration.

But this year is different. I can honestly say I don't expect the return of ND to happen in 2012.

I do, however, expect to see the players giving every single ounce of everything they have while trying to get better and win. I want to see leaders emerge on both sides of the ball and a quarterback to solidify the position.

I want to see Kelly having fun on the sidelines during a game.

I'll be happy if I can see hard work and progress. That way I can expect the return to national prominence in 2013!

I've learned that the best thing to do is envision what I would least want to happen, and expect that. That way I'll be pleasantly surprised if they exceed my expectations. Don't even try to tell me you can't easily see the michigan game working out that way.

 

[GreatGolson]

10-2... Losses to Oklahoma and USC.

thats my best case scenario prediction, worst case 8-4 with those to losses as well as a loss to UM and our annual "wtf loss"

 

[GreatGolson]

My predictions: Tommy Rees starts. ND torches Navy and Purdue, narrowly beat MSU, hype builds to peak level before a night game with scUM, we come out incredibly flat, get blown out, lose to UM in Chicago, lose to Stanford, beat BYU, get absolutely pummeled by Oklahoma, Kelly finally starts Golson, and ND proceeds to beat Pitt, BC, Wake, hype builds to possibly upset USC, ND fails to stay within two TDs. 7-5.

that sounds exactly like a typical ND season in the modern era. i hope for all our sakes Kelly starts Golson and that he comes out and gets it done

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

My predictions: Tommy Rees starts. ND torches Navy and Purdue, narrowly beat MSU, hype builds to peak level before a night game with scUM, we come out incredibly flat, get blown out, lose to UM in Chicago, lose to Stanford, beat BYU, get absolutely pummeled by Oklahoma, Kelly finally starts Golson, and ND proceeds to beat Pitt, BC, Wake, hype builds to possibly upset USC, ND fails to stay within two TDs. 7-5.

Why does this sound so damn plausible?

 

[GowerND11]

I think I may be the only person not worried about the WR corps. I have a feeling that, with the right QB (AKA not Rees), these WRs will be able to get open in space and make some noise. I feel that the ball will be spread out much more, thereby allowing for better running lanes, AND more mismatches for Eifert to exploit.

Of course this only occurs if we have a real threat to tuck and run under center along with decreased turnovers.