CanadianIrish
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It seems to me that whenever we land a high profile recruit, we praise the recruiting rankings and talk about his great potential. Whenever we land a 3* recruit, we talk about how Kelly dominated with 3* and will turn these kids into standouts too. People also point out that 2* and 3* kids get drafted every year, so why can’t our 3* become superstars? Quite simply, the numbers say they won’t.
The breakdown of recruits by rivals is: 5*: 26, 4*: 306, 3*: 1,541, 2*: 1,295, which is a total of 3,168 viable recruits (i.e. not 1*s) listed by rivals. As a percentage of the total, here’s how the star ratings breakdown: 5*: 0.8%, 4*: 9.7%, 3*: 48.6%, 2*: 40.9%.
4* and 5* players comprise roughly 10% of all recruits, yet if you look at recent NFL drafts, you’ll see that the vast majority of draft picks come from this group. In 2010, the last CNNSI mock draft had 22 out of 32 players being either 4* or 5*s. In 2009, in was 20 out of 32 with an average star rating of 3.59. So 90% of recruits are only able to come up with 30% of NFL prospects. Looking at it another way, in both 2009 and 2010 there were seven 5*s projected to go in the first round, which means that a 5* has roughly a 25% chance to be an NFL prospect, whereas 2* and 3* have less than a 1% chance. And the recruiting services are actually getting better at this, 2011 mock drafts are full of consensus 5* players.
Now we might say that we don’t care about NFL prospects, we are about winning. However, take a look at the 4 year average recruiting of BCS National Champions from 2005 – 2009, 3.61. Four of those five teams had two top 5 recruiting classes in the four year s leading up to their championship, and their average class recruiting rank in the four years leading up to the championship was 8th. Clearly recruiting ranking as right more often than they are wrong.
Even looking at Auburn this year, their offensive starting lineup has only two players rated 3* or less, and both are linemen. They have had five straight top 20 classes, including three top 10 classes. And the recruiting services whiffed on what might be their best player – Nick Fairley. Which brings us to an important point, when do the recruiting services get it wrong?
It’s hard to draw any pattern of busts from amongst 5* and 4* players. Typically, these kids have all the physical tools and just can’t put it together for one reason or another. But, there are clear patterns among lower star players who turn out to be big contributors. Typically, they fit into one of four categories:
1.) Players who change position: Nick Fairley was a 3* OG in high school, Prince Amukamara was a 3* RB. If you don’t see the kid at the position he’s going to play, or one very similar to it, you can’t properly judge him.
2.) TEs who Become OTs: This is really a sub-category of players who change position, but a lot of top drafted OTs started as tight ends and were moved to OT as they got bigger, like Jason Smith, Bryan Bulaga, and Nate Solder.
3.) QBs: In general, it is really hard to accurately scout a 17 year old QB. Two first overall picks in the last five years have been former 3* QBs (Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford). The reason for this is simple, it’s really hard to judge these kids, so the recruiting services don’t make many of them top prospects. In 2011, there are only five 4* or higher pro-style quarterbacks according to Rivals.
4.) Interior Linemen: Much like QBs, the recruiting services just don’t rank many of these guys highly. Rivals has sixteen 4* guards, and five 4* centers. Obviously there are going to be many more standouts than that. Often what you see instead is lower rated OTs move to the interior and become great interior linemen.
The positions where you are least likely to see a 3* make a big impression are WR and RB, where there have only been three 3*s drafted in the first round in the last three years, as compared to large numbers of 4*s and higher.
So what does this mean for the Irish? I think it’s actually a good thing.
Firstly, the odds are strongly in our favour that at least one of Lynch, Ishaq and Tuitt will develop into a top tier talent. Secondly, BK is bringing in a lot of guys and moving them around in positions. Tate Nichols (who I’m really high on) last year, and potentially Springmann (really hope so), Caricco, Hounshell or GAIII this year. This greatly improves the odds that they will out perform their star ratings. Finally, we’re bringing in good talent. We have the number 7 class on Rivals right now, and number 4 on Scout. We have nine 4*s or higher according to both Rivals and Scout, and a number of 5*s.
The future is bright for this team.
The breakdown of recruits by rivals is: 5*: 26, 4*: 306, 3*: 1,541, 2*: 1,295, which is a total of 3,168 viable recruits (i.e. not 1*s) listed by rivals. As a percentage of the total, here’s how the star ratings breakdown: 5*: 0.8%, 4*: 9.7%, 3*: 48.6%, 2*: 40.9%.
4* and 5* players comprise roughly 10% of all recruits, yet if you look at recent NFL drafts, you’ll see that the vast majority of draft picks come from this group. In 2010, the last CNNSI mock draft had 22 out of 32 players being either 4* or 5*s. In 2009, in was 20 out of 32 with an average star rating of 3.59. So 90% of recruits are only able to come up with 30% of NFL prospects. Looking at it another way, in both 2009 and 2010 there were seven 5*s projected to go in the first round, which means that a 5* has roughly a 25% chance to be an NFL prospect, whereas 2* and 3* have less than a 1% chance. And the recruiting services are actually getting better at this, 2011 mock drafts are full of consensus 5* players.
Now we might say that we don’t care about NFL prospects, we are about winning. However, take a look at the 4 year average recruiting of BCS National Champions from 2005 – 2009, 3.61. Four of those five teams had two top 5 recruiting classes in the four year s leading up to their championship, and their average class recruiting rank in the four years leading up to the championship was 8th. Clearly recruiting ranking as right more often than they are wrong.
Even looking at Auburn this year, their offensive starting lineup has only two players rated 3* or less, and both are linemen. They have had five straight top 20 classes, including three top 10 classes. And the recruiting services whiffed on what might be their best player – Nick Fairley. Which brings us to an important point, when do the recruiting services get it wrong?
It’s hard to draw any pattern of busts from amongst 5* and 4* players. Typically, these kids have all the physical tools and just can’t put it together for one reason or another. But, there are clear patterns among lower star players who turn out to be big contributors. Typically, they fit into one of four categories:
1.) Players who change position: Nick Fairley was a 3* OG in high school, Prince Amukamara was a 3* RB. If you don’t see the kid at the position he’s going to play, or one very similar to it, you can’t properly judge him.
2.) TEs who Become OTs: This is really a sub-category of players who change position, but a lot of top drafted OTs started as tight ends and were moved to OT as they got bigger, like Jason Smith, Bryan Bulaga, and Nate Solder.
3.) QBs: In general, it is really hard to accurately scout a 17 year old QB. Two first overall picks in the last five years have been former 3* QBs (Matt Ryan and Sam Bradford). The reason for this is simple, it’s really hard to judge these kids, so the recruiting services don’t make many of them top prospects. In 2011, there are only five 4* or higher pro-style quarterbacks according to Rivals.
4.) Interior Linemen: Much like QBs, the recruiting services just don’t rank many of these guys highly. Rivals has sixteen 4* guards, and five 4* centers. Obviously there are going to be many more standouts than that. Often what you see instead is lower rated OTs move to the interior and become great interior linemen.
The positions where you are least likely to see a 3* make a big impression are WR and RB, where there have only been three 3*s drafted in the first round in the last three years, as compared to large numbers of 4*s and higher.
So what does this mean for the Irish? I think it’s actually a good thing.
Firstly, the odds are strongly in our favour that at least one of Lynch, Ishaq and Tuitt will develop into a top tier talent. Secondly, BK is bringing in a lot of guys and moving them around in positions. Tate Nichols (who I’m really high on) last year, and potentially Springmann (really hope so), Caricco, Hounshell or GAIII this year. This greatly improves the odds that they will out perform their star ratings. Finally, we’re bringing in good talent. We have the number 7 class on Rivals right now, and number 4 on Scout. We have nine 4*s or higher according to both Rivals and Scout, and a number of 5*s.
The future is bright for this team.
