Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2018

[BGIF]

Disturbance 1

Disturbance 1

located due south of Louisiana, it's estimated that it could be become a Tropical Depression in the next 48 - 60 hours. Even if it doesn't reach puberty, it's still expected to dump a lot of rain in Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana.

 

[BGIF]

Tropical Storm Issac

Tropical Storm Issac

is still east of the Leeward Islands. It's cone includes Jamaica to the north and Honduras to the south. The 5 day cone has it heading toward Yucatan.

 

[BGIF]

Hurricane Helene

Hurricane Helene

is heading toward the Irish Sea between Ireland and England, both are in the 5 day cone.

 

[MNIrishman]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hurricane-florence-could-flood-north-carolina-s-hog-manure-pits-n908726

Hurricane Florence could flood North Carolina's hog manure pits, taint drinking water
It's happened before: When Hurricane Floyd struck in 1999, carcasses of hogs, chickens and other drowned livestock bobbed in a soup of toxic fecal matter.
by Associated Press / Sep.12.2018 / 8:34 AM ET

I don't understand how this could be an issue. If you operate a company in an area that routinely gets weather like this, you are responsible for handling it. It's happened before----why is it a remote possibility now? That's horrifically negligent. If these open waste pits cannot safely accommodate the weather of the Carolinas, then that industry doesn't belong there.

 

[BGIF]

Subtropical Storm Joyce

Subtropical Storm Joyce

is headed toward the Azores.

 

[BGIF]

Hurricane Oliva

Hurricane Oliva

https://wtop.com/national/2018/09/tropical-storm-dumps-rain-on-hawaii-while-crossing-state/

Tropical storm dumps rain on Hawaii while crossing state
By The Associated Press
September 13, 2018 3:22 am

HONOLULU (AP) — Heavy rain and winds from a tropical storm downed trees, knocked out power and prompted evacuations of several homes on Hawaii’s Maui island but spared the state widespread damage before continuing out to sea.

Tropical Storm Olivia crossed the state Wednesday, making landfall on Maui and Lanai islands along the way.

Weather forecasters warned heavy rains would continue through Thursday but Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa said he was hopeful the effects of the storm would be limited.

“It’s been an ordeal but we’re coming through this fairly well,” Arakawa said at a news conference. “I’m not seeing any really large areas of damage, no homes destroyed or flooded to any kind of extreme measures as we did in previous storms.”

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Olivia was more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) southwest of Honolulu late Wednesday. It was moving west with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), just barely strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm.

The hurricane center said Olivia will likely weaken further and become a tropical depression by Thursday.

Maui County said several homes in Lahaina had to be evacuated because of rising waters in a nearby river. Another home in Waihee Valley was evacuated.

Kahulu Peltier-Yaw said she saw gushing water from an overflowing river blocking at least one part of eastern Molokai’s only highway. She said it’s common for the highway to become impassable when there’s heavy rain.

A flash flood warning was issued for Molokai island and Maui. A wind gust of 51 mph (82 kph) was recorded at the airport on the island of Lanai.

A rain gauge recorded 9 inches (22 centimeters) of rain at West Wailua Iki on Maui.

The storm, which was a hurricane earlier in the week, slowly lost power as it neared the state.

Forecasters cancelled a tropical storm warning for Oahu and Maui late Wednesday after the storm moved far enough south to put the islands out of range for stronger winds.

Matthew Foster, a meteorologist with the hurricane center, said moisture from Olivia will linger through Friday even though the wind threat has died. This, combined with an upper level system, may trigger heavy rain and possibly thunderstorms on Kauai, Oahu and possibly Molokai, he said.

Honolulu’s H-1 freeway flooded under similar circumstances two years ago after Tropical Storm Darby passed the state and dissipated, he noted.

Hawaii Gov. David Ige and Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell both said they were keeping an eye on the leftover moisture.

“We’re all being cautious. We all do need to be very cautious until tomorrow,” Caldwell said.

Schools, courts and government offices were closed in Maui County in preparation for the storm.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency sent emergency teams and supplies to Maui ahead of the storm. The National Guard has mobilized personnel and trucks to the east side of Maui.

President Donald Trump has signed a disaster declaration for Hawaii, which will help FEMA respond, the governor said.

Hawaiian Airlines cancelled flights by its commuter airline, Ohana by Hawaiian.

Public schools on the Big Island, Oahu and Kauai were open.

Tourists, like Randy McQuay from Texas, weren’t letting the storm dampen their vacations. “No, coming from Houston we’re used to storms and hurricanes,” he said. “Didn’t expect to find one in Hawaii, but yeah we’re used to it.”

Solana Miller, who lives on Oahu’s North Shore, said she wasn’t too worried about Olivia.

She has leftover preparations from when Hurricane Lane passed near the state last month.

“We kind of just kept all the water and the cans of food and stuff,” she said, “so if anything really hits we’ll be fine.”

 

[BGIF]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/13/us/hurricane-florence-waffle-house-storm-center-trnd/index.html

By Faith Karimi, CNN

Updated 3:41 AM ET, Thu September 13, 2018

How the Waffle House is used to determine a hurricane's fury

Waffle House helps FEMA assess storm damage 01:20
(CNN)As the monstrosity that's Hurricane Florence moves closer to the Carolinas, the Waffle House is joining the list of agencies and businesses tracking the storm's every twist and turn.

The Southern breakfast chain, which is open 24 hours a day all year, activated a storm center to monitor the Category 2 hurricane. Waffle House restaurants are known for staying open during natural disasters, and federal officials use them to determine the severity of a hurricane, tornado or other hazards on a local area.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency coined the term "Waffle House Index" to measure the effect of a natural disaster on an area. If a Waffle House shuts down or limits its menu after such hazards, federal officials conclude the community took a major hit.
"The Waffle House test just doesn't tell us how quickly a business might rebound — it also tells how the larger community is faring," FEMA said in a 2011 blog post when Craig Fugate was administrator.
"The sooner restaurants, grocery and corner stores, or banks can re-open, the sooner local economies will start generating revenue again — signaling a strong recovery for that community.

In a 2016 interview with NPR, Fugate described how FEMA applied the Waffle House test.

"They are open most of the time. And that was the index. If a Waffle House is closed because there's a disaster, it's bad. We call it red. If they're open but have a limited menu, that's yellow," he said. "If they're green, we're good, keep going. You haven't found the bad stuff yet."
​

Waffle House spokesman Pat Warner said Fugate came up with the test during the 2004 hurricane season in Florida.
"If we are open quickly after the storm, that means the community is coming back and folks are out, we are getting back to that sense of normalcy," Warner told CNN's Brooke Baldwin on Wednesday. "After a storm, they're really looking to us to be there to help them out because they're used to us being there the rest of the year."

Waffle House is headquartered in Georgia, and has more than 2,000 restaurants, most of them in the South.[/QUOTE]

 

[BGIF]

Florence Cone

Florence Cone

5am NHC Advisory. Florence continues to move slightly to the north

Expected storm track moved North of Wrightsville Beach. Landfall target near Shell Island Resort then west toward the aptly named Country Culb of Landfall. Then onto the junction of N. College Road and US 17 continuing west and crossing the Cape Fear River by the Isabel Holmes Bridge, US 74.

Continues to the vicinity of Bolton then goes S.W. bisecting Lake Waccamaw and heading into S.Carolina. About 10 miles below Columbia, Florence is expected to turn NW toward the far end of N. Carolina, S.E. of Asheville. There it turns N.E. headed for Charleston, W.V. and points north.

 

[BGIF]

Florence

Florence

If this storm continues to trend toward the north, landfall could be north of I-140 which would put most of Wilmington on the backside of the storm's rotation. They're still gonna get a shitload of rain but they be on the less powerful side of the storm.

 

[RDU Irish]

6-8 foot storm surge is no joke - especially if timed with the tide but that is way down from the 20' talk. Any semi-modern beach front house can withstand that.

Looks to me like Emerald Isle down to Wilmington will be impacted to that level with Topsail in the crosshairs. Inland flooding will provide quite the reminder of where the floodplains are but should not be too much news relative to Matthew hitting the same area two years ago with 20" inches of rain.

 

[MNIrishman]

Live cam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

 

[tadman95]

My son and his wife finally bugged out today. Had to threaten him. LOL

Actually, I meant to text " Quit screwing around and pack up and leave. Don't make me come down there". What I actually sent was "Quit screwing and pack up etc".

So then I said "Well, when your done, Pack up and etc."

 

[drayer54]

Live cam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

That flag has seen better days.

 

[loomis41973]

I've been in 2 hurricanes, multiple named winter storms, a few tornadoes and an earthquake.

This wall to wall coverage is over the top on all of them. Is this what qualifies for journalism these days?

We all hope it turns out well but those not in the direct path don't really need to hear about it 24/7 for days on end.

 

[Old Man Mike]

People actually DIE from these things and you're griping about inconvenience? He!l man, turn the channel to sportscenter or some other "fun" channel.

 

[loomis41973]

People actually DIE from these things and you're griping about inconvenience? He!l man, turn the channel to sportscenter or some other "fun" channel.

Guess you miss the point...their is no inconvenience. It's just over the top sensational reporting, 100 fold.

Everyone needs to evacuate.... but we got guys standing right on the beach reporting the conditions.

People actually die from many things...they do not receive wall to wall coverage. It's likely more will die on the weekend in Chicago or Baltimore than in this hurricane...guess that's not sensational enough for our "journalists"


Hurricane reporting is the worst. I went through a couple, one in Jamaica and one in Mexico. Was hard to find any good info since it wasn't hitting the USA...and both were way more serious.

 

[MNIrishman]

People actually DIE from these things and you're griping about inconvenience? He!l man, turn the channel to sportscenter or some other "fun" channel.

People also die because they become desensitized to threats through exaggeration. It's not just annoying, it's deadly.

 

[loomis41973]

People also die because they become desensitized to threats through exaggeration. It's not just annoying, it's deadly.

Amen.

 

[Irish YJ]

Let's be honest, it's ratings. But I'm OK with the ratings chase if it educates folks and saves lives. Listening to the TWC, CNN, and Fox though today, and there is a lot of drama that's not needed by the reporters. The facts are scary enough. But truthfully its like driving past an accident. It's hard not to look/watch.

 

[loomis41973]

Let's be honest, it's ratings. But I'm OK with the ratings chase if it educates folks and saves lives. Listening to the TWC, CNN, and Fox though today, and there is a lot of drama that's not needed by the reporters. The facts are scary enough. But truthfully its like driving past an accident. It's hard not to look/watch.

Actually it's easy not to watch when they sensationalize it and don't have up to date reporting because the situation is getting better. Reporting 120 mph wind when they were actually much less for 4+ hours before they updated the reporting.

Give people REAL, UP TO DATE information...don't chase views and clicks. Anyone who in harms way should be watching anything but MSM....there are far better resources out there.

 

[BGIF]

11 pm NHC has Florence still coming through the Masonboro Island Reserve and making landfall around Peden Point at the end of Maple Grove's Piner Road. Crossing over the Tregembo Animal Park before crossing Cape Fear.

The revised track holds Florence will pass through 12 states, NC, SC, back to NC, TN, VA, KY, WV, OH, PA, NY, VT, NH, and ME and perhaps Canada.

Tens of millions of people are impacted. People moving inland to escape the flooding and inadvertently running into more flooding and perhaps not getting back into their homes for 2 weeks or so. This isn't a casual storm.


Perhaps that's why it gets more coverage than Jamaica or Mexico.

Who in their right mind stays in a foreign country as a tourist with an impending natural disaster on the way and complains US coverage was inadequate. It's a foreign country, it's their coverage, and their response system.

You were correct Mike. It was about inconvenience.

Somebody's vacation got messed up and they're still butt hurt because the U.S. National Weather Service didn't send them a text alert.

 

[BGIF]

NHC 2 am update

NHC 2 am update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING
ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

A USGS gauge at New Bern, North Carolina, on the Neuse River is currently recording 10.1 feet of inundation.


Landfall still expected Myrtle Grove area.

 

[loomis41973]

11 pm NHC has Florence still coming through the Masonboro Island Reserve and making landfall around Peden Point at the end of Maple Grove's Piner Road. Crossing over the Tregembo Animal Park before crossing Cape Fear.

The revised track holds Florence will pass through 12 states, NC, SC, back to NC, TN, VA, KY, WV, OH, PA, NY, VT, NH, and ME and perhaps Canada.

Tens of millions of people are impacted. People moving inland to escape the flooding and inadvertently running into more flooding and perhaps not getting back into their homes for 2 weeks or so. This isn't a casual storm.


Perhaps that's why it gets more coverage than Jamaica or Mexico.

Who in their right mind stays in a foreign country as a tourist with an impending natural disaster on the way and complains US coverage was inadequate. It's a foreign country, it's their coverage, and their response system.

You were correct Mike. It was about inconvenience.

Somebody's vacation got messed up and they're still butt hurt because the U.S. National Weather Service didn't send them a text alert.

LOL..Jump to conclusions much?

I was actually living in those places at the time. But hey, it's your story. It's like you
write headlines for CNN. smdh

 

[BabyIrish]

LOL..Jump to conclusions much?

I was actually living in those places at the time. But hey, it's your story. It's like you
write headlines for CNN. smdh

Who comes into a weather thread on a sports forum to complain about the reporting of a hurricane?

Your worried about the reporting, you do remember how devastating Harvey was don't you? People still aren't back in their homes in Texas 13 moths removed from that storm. The same type of destruction is possible here and your worried about sensationalism?

National news has done an excellent job of making sure everyone was aware of the situation and it looks like the experts are right. There's already wide spread flooding and the thing isn't even fully on shore yet. It's going to be a long long weekend for people in the Carolina's. Hopefully everyone can stay safe.

 

[ACamp1900]

Who comes into a weather thread on a sports forum to complain about the reporting of a hurricane?

Not sure if you're up on current events but,.... loomis41973 does.

 

[RDU Irish]

The local channel had a great report this morning - the crap on national news is just pathetic sensationalism. Showed 12 hour rainfall totals, current wind levels, expected accumulations and progression of wind. Current gusts of 40mph and probably peak of 60ish in RDU area. Kind of surprised 105 recorded gust at Wilmington airport is second highest recorded there.

Rainfall and surge combining along the Neuse river is a big problem - long ways from the storm center that gets so much attention. I don't think they saw the same amount of rain 2 years ago from Matthew that the Wilmington area got so less recent reminder for them. There is a ton of low lying area around New Bern and the Neuse - good reason smart houses are on stilts along that river. Swamp loggers was a show from that area for some perspective. I have a hard time fathoming how people can be ignorant of their flood potential there but sounds like hundreds are.

 

[RDU Irish]

Who comes into a weather thread on a sports forum to complain about the reporting of a hurricane?

Your worried about the reporting, you do remember how devastating Harvey was don't you? People still aren't back in their homes in Texas 13 moths removed from that storm. The same type of destruction is possible here and your worried about sensationalism?

National news has done an excellent job of making sure everyone was aware of the situation and it looks like the experts are right. There's already wide spread flooding and the thing isn't even fully on shore yet. It's going to be a long long weekend for people in the Carolina's. Hopefully everyone can stay safe.

I'm no expert but I can tell you if you are within 10' elevation to the Neuse River (or any decent sized river in the US, or oceanfront) you are going to have to deal with flooding at some point. You are not a victim of circumstance.

 

[ACamp1900]

 

[BabyIrish]

I'm no expert but I can tell you if you are within 10' elevation to the Neuse River (or any decent sized river in the US, or oceanfront) you are going to have to deal with flooding at some point. You are not a victim of circumstance.

So because people should be prepared ahead of time, then the media shouldn't report on the potential dangers of the storm? That makes no sense. Florence was category 4 at it's peak, that's dangerous stuff no matter how prepared you are. Couple that with the possibility of three days of hurricane force rain and it's even more dangerous. Why is that sensationalism? It's realism. No amount of preparation can save you from some dangerous conditions, and that's exactly what happened in Rockport and Houston last year and is happening in some areas now in the Carolinas.

 

[Ndaccountant]

made my day....reps