COVID-19

[Greenore]

The week I got Covid:

Monday - woke up with congestion and sinus-related issues
Tuesday - congestion becomes runny nose, sinuses already doing better, very mild cough
Wednesday - runny nose, mildest cough ever, starting to lose sense of taste and smell
Thursday - runny nose, cough already gone, completely lose sense of taste and smell (on Thanksgiving, dammit!)
Friday - runny nose, no taste or smell
Saturday - no taste or smell
Sunday - no taste or smell
Monday 2 - get taste and smell back, mostly
Tuesday 2 - symptom free



This is the weirdest part, for me. Not being able to taste or smell is already strange, but then it's like your body teases you by giving you hits here and there of 'salty' or 'sweet' or 'savory,' depending on what it is. It's like the virus attacks very specific taste buds for intricate flavors, but the general sense of salty/sweet/savory/umami remains.

When my wife made Thanksgiving dinner, I could taste the saltiness of the potatoes and the gravy, and could taste the oil on the butter... but couldn't taste the actual turkey, bread, stuffing, veggies, etc.

Many thanks for the response IrishLion.

Cheers and Go Irish!!

 

[RDU Irish]

I think you guys are getting the Moderna vaccine. Hospitals are getting Pfizer because they're harder to store correctly. CVS/Walgreens has the Moderna contract, and they're distributing to the post-acute sector and the general community.

Then again, maybe that's only in Hawaii.

My wife got the Pfizer. Making me dress up like Bill Gates and everyone has to use Internet Explorer and Bing now.

 

[RDU Irish]

Curious where the surges are. The field hospital in Raleigh was never used, taken down in July. Milwaukee fair grounds hospital never used. All reports I see are hospitals well below normal for this time of year.

Anecdotally, I have known more people who tested positive in the last month than the previous 9 months combined. Thankfully nobody serious and most got tested out of some sense of obligation or curiosity, not some actual concern of severity of their case.

 

[BilboBaggins]

Resting Heart rate in the 100's? holy cow. Mine is normally 55-60 bpm.

I'll lay on the couch and I'll be in the 60s. But I've noticed if I even watch a gripping movie, by HR will be in the 90s. When I get the groceries I'm in the 130s.

The blood work and heart monitors came back normal. No inflammation, no electrical issues. I went to see one of the best cardiologists in the area and he said "covid did *something* to you, but you'll just have to wait it out and let your body heal it." He said he has college distance runners that had covid in May and still aren't back to normal.

 

[Legacy]

Curious where the surges are. The field hospital in Raleigh was never used, taken down in July. Milwaukee fair grounds hospital never used. All reports I see are hospitals well below normal for this time of year.

Anecdotally, I have known more people who tested positive in the last month than the previous 9 months combined. Thankfully nobody serious and most got tested out of some sense of obligation or curiosity, not some actual concern of severity of their case.

Currently Hospitalized by State

Change in Currently Hospitalized

Federal Data Reveal Which Hospitals Are Dangerously Full This Week. Is Yours? (interactive map broken down into areas within states)
- "No ICU beds" may mean no staff capacity for any bed availability.

More people died in December from Covid (65k) than the number of deaths in twenty years of the Vietnam War (58k).
Colorado has the first reported case of the more contagious variant of Covid.

 

[IrishLax]

Congressman Luke Letlow just died of COVID. He was 41 and in good shape... leaves behind two young children.

Posting this because it’s newsworthy, especially with vaccine distribution underway and elected officials being prioritized. Any comments on his politics, position on masks, rallies, etc. will be deleted.

 

[RDU Irish]

Currently Hospitalized by State

Change in Currently Hospitalized

Federal Data Reveal Which Hospitals Are Dangerously Full This Week. Is Yours? (interactive map broken down into areas within states)
- "No ICU beds" may mean no staff capacity for any bed availability.

More people died in December from Covid (65k) than the number of deaths in twenty years of the Vietnam War (58k).
Colorado has the first reported case of the more contagious variant of Covid.

First link lost me at "WITH" qualifier. My wife (I guess technically) treated two Covid patients last week - they were only there to give birth but I guarantee they count as Covid hospitalizations. They have had more of those cases in the last month than they had YTD - all signs point to more prevalence in our area right now.

Second link is interesting if nothing else - at least you get a feel for if it is better or worse but only relative to the previous week. No context for if it is high or low on an absolute basis and no context yet again on hospitalized WITH vs FOR.

Third link headline is just retarded. No context for total hospital capacity - just the percent of patients that are covid positive. Well if you shut down or reduce elective procedures to focus on treating Covid patients at 20% capacity you will be over 50% and look horrible even if there are only 10 patients in your 50 bed hospital of which 5 are covid positive mothers giving birth (an example of the flawed logic, not a claim for any actual location). Yet again - WITH vs FOR covid has zero context. If all pregnant ladies entering the birthing center test C19 positive your numbers look bad but the reality is they all present with a head cold and leave on a normal maternity schedule.

So in total - your bevy of fear porn links did nothing to tell me which hospitals are bursting at the seams, above normal capacity utilization and featuring these problems as a function induced by covid, not merely including it.

 

[NorthDakota]

My mom and younger older sister have both got the vaccine. I'm assuming I'm at the back of the line in terms of getting the vaccine. Most of my friends have either gotten the vaccine or the rona already so if I make it through New Years without getting it, I suspect I'll be in the clear lol

 

[SonofOahu]

Got my first Pfizer shot, yesterday. I was expecting pain, but I guess our IP nurse is still skilled with the needle because I didn't even feel it. Shoulder is slightly sore, today, but it's nothing worse than what you experience with post-workout pain.

My kidneys feel a little taxed, but that's about it. I felt "fuzzy" on the inside for a little while, yesterday (like when you're having an allergic reaction) but it was fine. I hear the second shot could be a little more painful.

 

[SonofOahu]

Congressman Luke Letlow just died of COVID. He was 41 and in good shape... leaves behind two young children.

Posting this because it’s newsworthy, especially with vaccine distribution underway and elected officials being prioritized. Any comments on his politics, position on masks, rallies, etc. will be deleted.

This is what is so bad about this virus. It's not a complete disaster for most, but when it hits the right person, it's lights out. Soon, we're going to see actual death panels go into operation. LA County is right on the brink of activating their triage plan. That's when you'll see death counts skyrocket.

 

[NorthDakota]

This is what is so bad about this virus. It's not a complete disaster for most, but when it hits the right person, it's lights out. Soon, we're going to see actual death panels go into operation. LA County is right on the brink of activating their triage plan. That's when you'll see death counts skyrocket.

Our local soccer coach...maybe 40 years old? Spent a month on a vent. Just got over things in the past couple weeks or so. Was pretty bizarre.

 

[Legacy]

First link lost me at "WITH" qualifier. My wife (I guess technically) treated two Covid patients last week - they were only there to give birth but I guarantee they count as Covid hospitalizations. They have had more of those cases in the last month than they had YTD - all signs point to more prevalence in our area right now.

Second link is interesting if nothing else - at least you get a feel for if it is better or worse but only relative to the previous week. No context for if it is high or low on an absolute basis and no context yet again on hospitalized WITH vs FOR.

Third link headline is just retarded. No context for total hospital capacity - just the percent of patients that are covid positive. Well if you shut down or reduce elective procedures to focus on treating Covid patients at 20% capacity you will be over 50% and look horrible even if there are only 10 patients in your 50 bed hospital of which 5 are covid positive mothers giving birth (an example of the flawed logic, not a claim for any actual location). Yet again - WITH vs FOR covid has zero context. If all pregnant ladies entering the birthing center test C19 positive your numbers look bad but the reality is they all present with a head cold and leave on a normal maternity schedule.

So in total - your bevy of fear porn links did nothing to tell me which hospitals are bursting at the seams, above normal capacity utilization and featuring these problems as a function induced by covid, not merely including it.

Sorry to hear that. You probably know best what you want and will find it.

 

[BilboBaggins]

This is what is so bad about this virus. It's not a complete disaster for most, but when it hits the right person, it's lights out. Soon, we're going to see actual death panels go into operation. LA County is right on the brink of activating their triage plan. That's when you'll see death counts skyrocket.

Covid is a pretty slow illness. Like 22 day average from start to finish. If patients can't be moved to other cities, something is wrong IMO. What was the point of the CARES Act if we can't fund transporting patients?

 

[yankeehater]

This is what is so bad about this virus. It's not a complete disaster for most, but when it hits the right person, it's lights out. Soon, we're going to see actual death panels go into operation. LA County is right on the brink of activating their triage plan. That's when you'll see death counts skyrocket.

This state is a complete joke especially LA County. They wonder why cases aren't going down!?!? They are in an all hands on deck mode. What does that mean? Assymptomatic health care workers who are covid positive or have had direct contact are required to come into work. I kid you not! My college buddy's daughter is positive and his wife is a nurse at a major So Cal hospital. His company required him to self quarantine for 10 days. His wife who is a nurse has not been allowed to miss a shift. We all shit ourselves when he told us this.

 

[yankeehater]

This is what is so bad about this virus. It's not a complete disaster for most, but when it hits the right person, it's lights out. Soon, we're going to see actual death panels go into operation. LA County is right on the brink of activating their triage plan. That's when you'll see death counts skyrocket.

Vitamin D deficiency has been a pretty strong indicator as to not only who contracts the virus, but how hard they are hit by it. I pulled this from a recent article my buddy who is a biologist sent to me.

Stay home although 66 percent of new coronavirus hospitalizations in New York were in people who had not routinely left their homes. Stay inside although there are studies echoing observations during the 1918 flu pandemic finding that people who went outside had better outcomes. A recent Spanish study showed that 80 percent of patients with COVID had low levels of vitamin D. Another study found that people with adequate vitamin D levels had a 51 percent lower risk of dying from COVID. People at risk for vitamin D deficiency include those who have dark skin, are elderly or overweight, or stay indoors. Interestingly, these groups are particularly hit hard by COVID.

 

[SonofOahu]

Our local soccer coach...maybe 40 years old? Spent a month on a vent. Just got over things in the past couple weeks or so. Was pretty bizarre.

So far, people are lucky to get that length of time on the vent. Once hospitals hit capacity, if you're one of the persons given access to the scarce service, you have ten days to show improvements or you'll be taken off so that the next person is given a chance. My wife is on the triage group at her hospital, and I'm on mine since I chair the ethics committee (imagine that!)

My wife has already broken down just doing through the triage drills, because she's clinical and sees patients on the daily. I have the luxury of not seeing the people I'd be making determinations on, but I have a feeling that should we go the triage route, my current cavalier attitude about having someone's life in my hands is quickly going to change to "holy shit, is this real life?" and I don't know how to feel about that.

Covid is a pretty slow illness. Like 22 day average from start to finish. If patients can't be moved to other cities, something is wrong IMO. What was the point of the CARES Act if we can't fund transporting patients?

Sometimes the next city over will be at capacity too -- people are sending patients out of state. Hell, we're currently so short on dialysis beds, we're transferring patients from Oahu to Maui. Imagine how thrilled a family is when you tell them not only can you not visit your loved one, we're about to ship them to another island.

I wanted to add one more point. Lateral transfers between two acute hospitals are not an easy thing. Generally, there's a lot of red-tape simply because of the payor-provider relationship (insurance companies and hospitals). Hospitals are cautious about taking a transfer before the insurance company confirms that they will pay for the patient's treatment/stay. Now, COVID-19 has introduced a lot of gray area around compliance and regulatory issues, but the difficulty with insurance companies can still present a problem.

This state is a complete joke especially LA County. They wonder why cases aren't going down!?!? They are in an all hands on deck mode. What does that mean? Assymptomatic health care workers who are covid positive or have had direct contact are required to come into work. I kid you not! My college buddy's daughter is positive and his wife is a nurse at a major So Cal hospital. His company required him to self quarantine for 10 days. His wife who is a nurse has not been allowed to miss a shift. We all shit ourselves when he told us this.

That guidance has been in place since March; it's not a California or LA thing, it's actual CDC-guidance on how to manage critical staff levels. We would do the same. Look at it this way: you're better off with a positive clinician treating you than not having a clinician at all. Seriously, when the rates are this high, the only people coming to the ED are COVID patients or heart-attacks and strokes. Ain't no one coming to the ED for heartburn or toothaches.

 

[NorthDakota]

Vitamin D deficiency has been a pretty strong indicator as to not only who contracts the virus, but how hard they are hit by it. I pulled this from a recent article my buddy who is a biologist sent to me.

Stay home although 66 percent of new coronavirus hospitalizations in New York were in people who had not routinely left their homes. Stay inside although there are studies echoing observations during the 1918 flu pandemic finding that people who went outside had better outcomes. A recent Spanish study showed that 80 percent of patients with COVID had low levels of vitamin D. Another study found that people with adequate vitamin D levels had a 51 percent lower risk of dying from COVID. People at risk for vitamin D deficiency include those who have dark skin, are elderly or overweight, or stay indoors. Interestingly, these groups are particularly hit hard by COVID.

Makes me happy we hit our peak here when people were still routinely outside. Ain't nobody going outside when its legit cold and we don't get much direct sunlight anyway

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Makes me happy we hit our peak here when people were still routinely outside. Ain't nobody going outside when its legit cold and we don't get much direct sunlight anyway

Is that North Dakota or Manhattan? Just checking haha

 

[notredomer23]

I’d say it’s a top down failure all around that only 3MM Americans have been vaccinated thus far. We knew the logistical challenges that Pfizer was going to bring, why didn’t feds or the states prepare better? Easy to cast blame from my recliner, but I’m failing to see why there wasn’t an army of volunteers ready to go to every LTC and wrap that up in a couple of days.

 

[N_D_Fighting_Irish]

I’d say it’s a top down failure all around that only 3MM Americans have been vaccinated thus far. We knew the logistical challenges that Pfizer was going to bring, why didn’t feds or the states prepare better? Easy to cast blame from my recliner, but I’m failing to see why there wasn’t an army of volunteers ready to go to every LTC and wrap that up in a couple of days.

What is the vaccine supposed to do? Didn't you get the memo. Even if everyone is vaccinated, you will still have immoral lockdown of the country. You will still have mask mandates, social distancing, and the gestapo healthcare industry killing off patients by restricting visitation.

At one time I thought we were dealing with a dangerous virus, now I have my doubts. The absurdity of reporting the rise in f'ing cases...not deaths...cases...non stop. We are told of the stress Hospitals are under...over capacity...yet hospitals are laying off and furloughing nurses. It is also interesting the symbolic language that is being used..."dark winter". Non stop every second every hour every day. At every store, a reminder..wear mask. Reminders by cell phone. Just received an "amber alert" from our county commissioner...warning us about the dangers of New Years. We are being programmed like sheep.

For anyone who has a health issue or has a family who has health issue, I pray for you. If you or your loved one is admitted to the hospital then they will become a ward of the state. You have NO rights to be there...other than to decide to end any life support. No doctor, nurse, hospital admin will care that your loved one may die in the worst circumstances possible...dying alone. The self centered doctors, nurses, and hospital admins have policies and like all good soldiers they follow orders. When you ask them why, they regurgitate talking points. When your refute them, they claim everyone is doing it. Your loved one is no longer a human but a patient. All because of a virus that the World Health Org. just announced is not the big one.

The fear of the virus is being used to change how we interact, how we work, how we care for our loved ones, how we tolerate immoral policies. Economically, we have become atomized. Now we are being atomized socially or are being reconditioned to what being human means. Many of you do not understand, but once you experience, I pray you do not, first hand the abject cruelty of the Covid policies...you will have the choice of accepting or resisting...of being cattle or human.

 

[Old Man Mike]

One out of every thousand of us is dead.

 

[NorthDakota]

Is that North Dakota or Manhattan? Just checking haha

Manhattan doesn't get cold so that should answer your question lmaooo

 

[Legacy]

Once upon a time - a hundred years or so ago - we had pandemics like cholera, yellow fever, measles, flu, TB, etc. that would ravage cities. No vaccines. No basic medical care like supplemental oxygen. People understood the importance of masks, hand-washing, etc. Cities hqd public health departments that could issue orders that were perceived as beneficial and in the public good. With all the constitutional rights BS, we are really now at point prior to that hundred years ago. Except that we have sophisticated medical care and vaccines.

I'm down for anyone who feels like their rights are being violated by a totalitarian regime of local, state or federal officials to get that supplemental oxygen, some IV fluids and sent home or put in a field hospital. The best idea for them would be to sign an advanced directives form that said they do not want to be intubated or revived if their heart stopped. Discharge them to their homes with some home oxygen to save them from having all their rights taken away by our health systems.

Save the hospital beds for those people who recognize public health measures save lives. As people did a hundred years ago.

Read this article recently that highlights the clash between basic public health measures and the rights people among nearby counties.
Live Free or Die if You Must, Say Colorado Urbanites — But Not in My Hospital

“They were basically encouraging their citizens to violate the emergency health orders … with this cowboy-esque, you know, ‘Yippee-ki-yay, freedom, Constitution forever, damn the consequences,’” said Bagley. “Their statement is, ‘Our hospitals are full, but don’t worry, we’re just going to use yours.’”

So, “for 48 hours, I trolled Weld County,” he said. Bagley asked the city council to consider an ordinance that could have restricted Weld County residents’ ability to receive care at Longmont hospitals. Bagley, who retracted his proposal the next day, said he knew it was never going to come to fruition — after all, it was probably illegal — but he wanted to prove a point.

“They’re going to be irresponsible? Fine. Let me propose a question,” he said. “If there is only one ICU bed left and there are two grandparents there — one from Weld, one from Boulder — and they both need that bed, who should get it?”

Easy. Send the Weld County patient home. The problem comes when the Weld County person has been following all the recommended public health measures but got the disease threatening their life from someone who refuses follow those. The anti-vaxers should step up and not violate their beliefs. More doses for those who recognize their benefits.

 

[notredomer23]

What is the vaccine supposed to do? Didn't you get the memo. Even if everyone is vaccinated, you will still have immoral lockdown of the country. You will still have mask mandates, social distancing, and the gestapo healthcare industry killing off patients by restricting visitation.

At one time I thought we were dealing with a dangerous virus, now I have my doubts. The absurdity of reporting the rise in f'ing cases...not deaths...cases...non stop. We are told of the stress Hospitals are under...over capacity...yet hospitals are laying off and furloughing nurses. It is also interesting the symbolic language that is being used..."dark winter". Non stop every second every hour every day. At every store, a reminder..wear mask. Reminders by cell phone. Just received an "amber alert" from our county commissioner...warning us about the dangers of New Years. We are being programmed like sheep.

For anyone who has a health issue or has a family who has health issue, I pray for you. If you or your loved one is admitted to the hospital then they will become a ward of the state. You have NO rights to be there...other than to decide to end any life support. No doctor, nurse, hospital admin will care that your loved one may die in the worst circumstances possible...dying alone. The self centered doctors, nurses, and hospital admins have policies and like all good soldiers they follow orders. When you ask them why, they regurgitate talking points. When your refute them, they claim everyone is doing it. Your loved one is no longer a human but a patient. All because of a virus that the World Health Org. just announced is not the big one.

The fear of the virus is being used to change how we interact, how we work, how we care for our loved ones, how we tolerate immoral policies. Economically, we have become atomized. Now we are being atomized socially or are being reconditioned to what being human means. Many of you do not understand, but once you experience, I pray you do not, first hand the abject cruelty of the Covid policies...you will have the choice of accepting or resisting...of being cattle or human.

Ok.

 

[TorontoGold]

Cleanup on aisle 4Chan, now I know that restricting visitation is actually the big killer.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

What is the vaccine supposed to do? Didn't you get the memo. Even if everyone is vaccinated, you will still have immoral lockdown of the country. You will still have mask mandates, social distancing, and the gestapo healthcare industry killing off patients by restricting visitation.

At one time I thought we were dealing with a dangerous virus, now I have my doubts. The absurdity of reporting the rise in f'ing cases...not deaths...cases...non stop. We are told of the stress Hospitals are under...over capacity...yet hospitals are laying off and furloughing nurses. It is also interesting the symbolic language that is being used..."dark winter". Non stop every second every hour every day. At every store, a reminder..wear mask. Reminders by cell phone. Just received an "amber alert" from our county commissioner...warning us about the dangers of New Years. We are being programmed like sheep.

For anyone who has a health issue or has a family who has health issue, I pray for you. If you or your loved one is admitted to the hospital then they will become a ward of the state. You have NO rights to be there...other than to decide to end any life support. No doctor, nurse, hospital admin will care that your loved one may die in the worst circumstances possible...dying alone. The self centered doctors, nurses, and hospital admins have policies and like all good soldiers they follow orders. When you ask them why, they regurgitate talking points. When your refute them, they claim everyone is doing it. Your loved one is no longer a human but a patient. All because of a virus that the World Health Org. just announced is not the big one.

The fear of the virus is being used to change how we interact, how we work, how we care for our loved ones, how we tolerate immoral policies. Economically, we have become atomized. Now we are being atomized socially or are being reconditioned to what being human means. Many of you do not understand, but once you experience, I pray you do not, first hand the abject cruelty of the Covid policies...you will have the choice of accepting or resisting...of being cattle or human.

We should require every non-healthcare worker to spend one evening shift in their local ED and one shift in the ICU. I bet everyone would be line for the COVID vaccine afterwards.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

We should require every non-healthcare worker to spend one evening shift in their local ED and one shift in the ICU. I bet everyone would be line for the COVID vaccine afterwards.

Considering many of our major cities have had to have refrigerated trucks for the dead bodies the rant you're responding borders on Holocaust denialism territory.

 

[SonofOahu]

What is the vaccine supposed to do? Didn't you get the memo. Even if everyone is vaccinated, you will still have immoral lockdown of the country. You will still have mask mandates, social distancing, and the gestapo healthcare industry killing off patients by restricting visitation.

At one time I thought we were dealing with a dangerous virus, now I have my doubts. The absurdity of reporting the rise in f'ing cases...not deaths...cases...non stop. We are told of the stress Hospitals are under...over capacity...yet hospitals are laying off and furloughing nurses. It is also interesting the symbolic language that is being used..."dark winter". Non stop every second every hour every day. At every store, a reminder..wear mask. Reminders by cell phone. Just received an "amber alert" from our county commissioner...warning us about the dangers of New Years. We are being programmed like sheep.

For anyone who has a health issue or has a family who has health issue, I pray for you. If you or your loved one is admitted to the hospital then they will become a ward of the state. You have NO rights to be there...other than to decide to end any life support. No doctor, nurse, hospital admin will care that your loved one may die in the worst circumstances possible...dying alone. The self centered doctors, nurses, and hospital admins have policies and like all good soldiers they follow orders. When you ask them why, they regurgitate talking points. When your refute them, they claim everyone is doing it. Your loved one is no longer a human but a patient. All because of a virus that the World Health Org. just announced is not the big one.

The fear of the virus is being used to change how we interact, how we work, how we care for our loved ones, how we tolerate immoral policies. Economically, we have become atomized. Now we are being atomized socially or are being reconditioned to what being human means. Many of you do not understand, but once you experience, I pray you do not, first hand the abject cruelty of the Covid policies...you will have the choice of accepting or resisting...of being cattle or human.

Delete your account.

 

[SonofOahu]

I’d say it’s a top down failure all around that only 3MM Americans have been vaccinated thus far. We knew the logistical challenges that Pfizer was going to bring, why didn’t feds or the states prepare better? Easy to cast blame from my recliner, but I’m failing to see why there wasn’t an army of volunteers ready to go to every LTC and wrap that up in a couple of days.

It's not that easy. Like I posed awhile back, this is the largest logistical project the world has ever seen. It's not just one state, one nation, one company that is working on this, it's essentially every country (some more than others, obviously) city/state/local municipality/tribal group/etc., currently two companies with multiple production sites, all coordinating the logistics, implementation, tracking, and reporting. Also take into account the fact that this is a two-step process which requires consents, and you can see where bottlenecks will occur.

I was 100% sure we wouldn't have a vaccine by 2021, but here we are. We still have daily meetings about the vaccination effort, so it is a bit of "learn as you go" but from the downstream viewpoint, it's going about as well as we can expect. Also, don't forget that the clinicians your hospitals are struggling to keep in the game are the same clinicians needed to deliver the vaccinations.

 

[Legacy]

How Does the Coronavirus Variant Spread? Here’s What Scientists Know
Contagiousness is the hallmark of the mutated virus surfacing in the U.S. and more than a dozen other countries. (NYT)

The new variant seems to infect more people than earlier versions of the coronavirus, even when the environments are the same. It’s not clear what gives the variant this advantage, although there are indications that it may infect cells more efficiently.

It’s also difficult to say exactly how much more transmissible the new variant may be, because scientists have not yet done the kind of lab experiments that are required. Most of the conclusions have been drawn from epidemiological observations, and “there’s so many possible biases in all the available data,” cautioned Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland and a scientific adviser to the British government.

Scientists initially estimated that the new variant was 70 percent more transmissible, but a recent modeling study pegged that number at 56 percent. Once researchers sift through all the data, it’s possible that the variant will turn out to be just 10 to 20 percent more transmissible, said Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle.

Even so, Dr. Bedford said, it is likely to catch on rapidly and become the predominant form in the United States by March. Scientists like Dr. Bedford are tracking all the known variants closely to detect any further changes that might alter their behavior.

So far, at least, the variant does not seem to make people any sicker or lead to more deaths. Still, there is cause for concern: A variant that is more transmissible will increase the death toll simply because it will spread faster and infect more people.

“In that sense, it’s just a numbers game,” Dr. Rasmussen said. The effect will be amplified “in places like the U.S. and the U.K., where the health care system is really at its breaking point.”

Airborne spread allowing it to stay in the air and travel longer distances. Contagiousness before symptoms emerge. Forty percent of people are asymptomatic when they are contagious. Now a variant that is more transmissible without increasing the rate of mortality just when some hospitals have no capacity and we don't know what the flu season will be like.

Vaccine delivery and the need to adhere to precautions like social distancing, not gathering in large groups, mask-wearing, and hand hygiene have never been more important. Stay safe, my friends.