COVID-19

[Circa]

You don't see how one begets the other? Most people get the flu and they don't even call their doctor, let alone go to the emergency room. They buy a case of Gatorade and try to sleep as much as possible. Now, you get the flu and you're all "OH MY GOD I'M GOING TO FUCKING DIE!" and you admit to the hospital for two weeks. The fear-mongering is causing (in part) the run on the hospitals.

Never thought I'd say It... But you are absolutely correct.

I've been saying something similar and It's about as grotesque a subject anyone wants to face. All deaths shouldn't be contributed to Covid.
How many people have died because they were going to die anyway? They will not report those numbers anymore.

 

[koonja]

I'm kind of with Wiz that the fear mongering and pull to chalk up deaths to COVID is likely over stating the death toll.

I still want to slap every single person who ran in to get tested and was negative. 90% of tests are NEGATIVE based on last I heard. F those people who are using limited tests in front of others who may need it.

My friend is pretty sure he had it a few weeks ago. He's had a FLU shot and it felt like he had the FLU. He'll never know because he stayed home as he should and let it do it's thing. He's 100% fine now.

But back to attributing deaths. While I agree with Wiz on the inflation (not to mention the vast under selling of cases with no death), there is an argument for counting deaths against COVID.

If a young, healthy person has a car crash and survives, that's great.

If an elderly person who loses blood quicker has the same crash but ends up dying due to loss of blood, I think the triggering event is still the car crash, not "being old".

 

[wizards8507]

...particularly when the alternative likely means sacrificing 1.5-2% of our most vulnerable citizens.

But that's where we get into the mortality statistics and fuzzy math. It's not "sacrificing" someone if the person was going to die anyways.

 

[TorontoGold]

From your perspective perhaps. We're around 3-4 weeks of restrictions right now, so it's not like those in a nursing home haven't seen anyone in months. The nursing home where my MIL is is helping them with Facetime sessions to stay in touch. We have kids on both sides of us and while they don't leave their yards, they are out playing, laughing and getting on each other everyday. Some people aren't getting married, but I've seen plenty of examples on TV where they are. Besides, as soon as this passes they can get married. The only sad part is not being able to conduct a normal funeral for our loved ones.

I don't find this to be incredibly destructive, but more of a giant pain in the butt that we know will end if we all use common sense.

Amen. Sacrificing some comforts is a small price to pay so the medically vulnerable don't get wiped out and we can get a handle on things.

If you're an otherwise healthy person, I think the sensible thing is to want this dealt with swiftly so that if you have an unforeseen trauma you can get the medical attention necessary.

At the end of the day the question is, are you comfortable sacrificing some of your comforts so that a less fortunate person (health/wealth) can get through this. As well you need to know that safety nets are there from your government to allow you to do this ie. don't have to sacrifice too much so that you can't recover from it.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Another big downward adjustment by the IHME projection today.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">IHME U.S. death toll numbers have fallen the past week from 93,000 to 81,000 to roughly 60,000 today. That's more than a 30% drop in a short span. Hopefully the trend continues. One would think this would be top story on the news but seems hard to find:<a href="https://t.co/rxr6tZK3Ld">https://t.co/rxr6tZK3Ld</a></p>— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/1247878128082583553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[zelezo vlk]

Wiz speaking for all the old folks

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2skSiPIpB2s?start=45" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Circa]

Death isn't something to joke about or take lightly. I hope everyone on planet Earth stays healthy and lives a long prosperous life..
Now I must say, In case I die of natural causes in the next couple of days It's not correlated to Corona, altho I'm sure would be the first in my area. I died because I probably drank too much worrying about this virus and NDFB... My ex-women come first but let's not talk of those scoundrels......

On my tombstone should say... died of natural causes during the world's try at tyranny through scare tactics...

 

[Whiskeyjack]

But that's where we get into the mortality statistics and fuzzy math. It's not "sacrificing" someone if the person was going to die anyways.

"Excess mortality" suggests that Italy is underestimating, not overestimating, COVID-19 deaths:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THREAD: Might the death toll from covid-19 be higher than the official fatalities attributed to it so far? Data emerging from the worst-hit places in Europe suggest so. (1/9) <a href="https://t.co/bGMebMckI7">pic.twitter.com/bGMebMckI7</a></p>— James Tozer (@J_CD_T) <a href="https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In those northern Italian cities that seem to have achieved saturation, 1.5-2% of all citizens died, not just confirmed cases. So there's no "fuzzy math" in my suggestion about the alternative being: (1) cease social suppression measures; (2) allow the virus to reach its saturation point; and (3) reconcile ourselves to 2% of our population dying from it.

And as Koon points out above, if an elderly or immunocompromised person likely would have lived another few years but for COVID-19, it's entirely fair to attribute his death to this virus. You can't wave it away with, "Wlel, from one perspective we're all dying, so might as well open up the flood gates and let nature take its course!"

 

[Irish#1]

My great aunt, 88, contracted COVID-19 in her nursing home. They thought she was a goner and they started with the hydroxychloriquine four days ago.

Just got the call from my Grandpa (It's his sister) that she's completely turned around and is expected to be released on Friday.

Nice, very nice.

 

[Circa]

I'm kind of with Wiz that the fear mongering and pull to chalk up deaths to COVID is likely over stating the death toll.

I still want to slap every single person who ran in to get tested and was negative. 90% of tests are NEGATIVE based on last I heard. F those people who are using limited tests in front of others who may need it.

My friend is pretty sure he had it a few weeks ago. He's had a FLU shot and it felt like he had the FLU. He'll never know because he stayed home as he should and let it do it's thing. He's 100% fine now.

But back to attributing deaths. While I agree with Wiz on the inflation (not to mention the vast under selling of cases with no death), there is an argument for counting deaths against COVID.

If a young, healthy person has a car crash and survives, that's great.

If an elderly person who loses blood quicker has the same crash but ends up dying due to loss of blood, I think the triggering event is still the car crash, not "being old".

It's funny you bring this up. There are more strains of Influenza then we really understand and people that say they had the vaccine for the flu are not getting every antibody associated with all of the different strands. I got the flu "vaccine" 3-4 years ago and I ended up sicker that year then any other year of my life. (Fever-hallucinations and craziness from both ends of my body)

IMHO, this coronavirus Is very similar and why people are testing positive-then negative - than positive again seems like flu/cold antigens. The corona virus has been around for a long time and I'm no expert but 1+1 =2...
4 If your involved with the government/media these days......... they'll just add all the numbers they see and say HEY!


Hay is for horses,
Straw is for cows,
Milk is for babies
That cry out loud.

 

[ab2cmiller]

I'm kind of with Wiz that the fear mongering and pull to chalk up deaths to COVID is likely over stating the death toll.

I still want to slap every single person who ran in to get tested and was negative. 90% of tests are NEGATIVE based on last I heard. F those people who are using limited tests in front of others who may need it.

My friend is pretty sure he had it a few weeks ago. He's had a FLU shot and it felt like he had the FLU. He'll never know because he stayed home as he should and let it do it's thing. He's 100% fine now.

But back to attributing deaths. While I agree with Wiz on the inflation (not to mention the vast under selling of cases with no death), there is an argument for counting deaths against COVID.

If a young, healthy person has a car crash and survives, that's great.

If an elderly person who loses blood quicker has the same crash but ends up dying due to loss of blood, I think the triggering event is still the car crash, not "being old".

Tests are running about 80% negative

Your friend might have had COVID, but if the tests are any indicator, he probably didn't. About 80% of the people that got tested thought that they probably had COVID, turns out they didn't.

 

[AKRowdy]

Hospital administrator forcing financial ruin on others to make his life easier - why would anyone be surprised this is what happens when you make MDs king for a day?[\B] Collateral damages are very real in this "fight". Even at 240k deaths - that is less than a 10% increase in annual deaths in the US. We gotta get back to work sooner than later - wash your hands and keep your distance and we will be just fine.

No not MDs but businessmen who think they understand healthcare/ disease processes. This is the real problem in our country, too many business people in healthcare who have no clue about what is going on. There are too many administrators in healthcare and they’re the ones telling MDs how to do their job or should get people out quicker for the sake of a dollar.

But the thing that the CDC/Hospitals were trying to prevent was mass overwhelming of the hospital resources. In NYC they are hooking multiple people up to 1 ventilator. Yes it’s less than 10% of annual deaths but the amount of deaths would’ve come in a span of weeks not months. This virus is not like your typical flu. Yes young people can die from the flu but they’re are young people extremely sick from this virus.

Also it’s easy to say go back to work, just keep your distance. This is easier said than done. We go back to work too soon and they whole thing will start over again and we are back to square 1.

 

[Irishize]

Tests are running about 80% negative

Your friend might have had COVID, but if the tests are any indicator, he probably didn't. About 80% of the people that got tested thought that they probably had COVID, turns out they didn't.

Keep in mind that 20% of COVID tests are wrong so 1 in 5 patients may test negative but actually be positive. My boss was one of those. He & his daughter both had it and were experiencing the same symptoms. She tested positive but his test came back negative.

Luckily, the hospital where he was tested (drive through hospital testing) had a protocol to make his PCP aware. He had not been to his PCP other than yearly checkups. His doc called and asked if he was tested. When he told it was negative, the MD assessed him over the phone. Once my boss mentioned one of the symptoms was loss of taste, his doc directed him to a different hospital for testing. The 2nd test came back positive.

He & his daughter are both fully recovered.

 

[Circa]

]Keep in mind that 20% of COVID tests are wrong so 1 in 5 patients may test negative but actually be positive. My boss was one of those. He & his daughter both had it and were experiencing the same symptoms. She tested positive but his test came back negative.

Luckily, the hospital where he was tested (drive through hospital testing) had a protocol to make his PCP aware. He had not been to his PCP other than yearly checkups. His doc called and asked if he was tested. When he told it was negative, the MD assessed him over the phone. Once my boss mentioned one of the symptoms was loss of taste, his doc directed him to a different hospital for testing. The 2nd test came back positive.

He & his daughter are both fully recovered.

How do you really know the statement you posted in the bolded is a fact? That's why I've been oddly hesitant about this whole ordeal, and It seems to be picking up some traction.
But yeah... I'm just that crazy guy.

Loss of taste and smell are 1 of the weirdest symptoms there have been. I can lose all 5 of my 5 senses by eating hot wings... It's not a symptom that can be calibrated and everyone has different ideas to what they can sense.
This whole thing has gotten weirder by the day.
We can think we are blind and really be blind. It's a sense I hope us Americans don't keep losing.

 

[Irishize]

But the thing that the CDC/Hospitals were trying to prevent was mass overwhelming of the hospital resources. In NYC they are hooking multiple people up to 1 ventilator. .

Wait, I just heard it was reported that Cuomo & Deblasio both confirmed that they have more than enough ventilators now. Cuomo admitted that the original projection was too high. (BTW, that’s a good thing b/c those excess ventilators can be shipped to other needy places or go to the national stockpile so we are even more prepared for the next pandemic.) So I have no issue w/ Cuomo’s original request being too high b/c he was doing what he thought was best for his state. But that should mean that there’s not situations where multiple people are sharing a ventilator. Also, Cuomo announced that he believes NY has not lost one patient due to lack of supplies or the best efforts of their healthcare system.

 

[Irishize]

How do you really know the statement you posted in the bolded is a fact? That's why I've been oddly hesitant about this whole ordeal, and It seems to be picking up some traction.
But yeah... I'm just that crazy guy.

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

It’s not uncommon for dx tests to not be 100% accurate. This article actually says that 30% are False Negatives. The number I’ve heard reported has been 20%.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Keep in mind that 20% of COVID tests are wrong so 1 in 5 patients may test negative but actually be positive. My boss was one of those. He & his daughter both had it and were experiencing the same symptoms. She tested positive but his test came back negative.

Luckily, the hospital where he was tested (drive through hospital testing) had a protocol to make his PCP aware. He had not been to his PCP other than yearly checkups. His doc called and asked if he was tested. When he told it was negative, the MD assessed him over the phone. Once my boss mentioned one of the symptoms was loss of taste, his doc directed him to a different hospital for testing. The 2nd test came back positive.

He & his daughter are both fully recovered.

Certainly there could be some false negatives that could alter the results to some degree. But it would take a huge amount of those to alter the percentages when we are talking about over 2 million tests.

The point still remains that they are testing people that they think have COVID and the vast majority of people don't.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

It’s not uncommon for dx tests to not be 100% accurate. This article actually says that 30% are False Negatives. The number I’ve heard reported has been 20%.

Taking it a step further, this means the negative predictive value in the midst of a pandemic is...not good.

 

[BobbyMac]

My attorney's office manager died this morning of Covid.

Went to the hospital yesterday evening.

Started feeling bad Monday around lunch.

They closed the office on March 27, switching to telecommute.

I dropped papers off to her on the 20th.

55 y/o smoker in good health otherwise.

Very nice lady who was life long friends with one of my distant cousins I found out during one of our numerous talks. RIP

I've been wearing masks for over a week.

 

[yankeehater]

With all the numbers being thrown around, the one I am not seeing updated is how many of the cases are still active. We show 400k+ cases, but a number of those have beat the virus and now now longer positive or able to transmit the virus.

As I mentioned weeks back, my boss was exposed by his sister on a visit back to NY. Thankfully, she beat it and has been symptom free for weeks. As far as I know, she has never been retested and been added to a statistic of covid free.

BTW...Her husband never showed symptoms so was never tested. My boss never showed symptoms, but actually did the antibody test (85% accurate he was told) this week and came back negative so he did not bring the virus back to California.

 

[TorontoGold]

With all the numbers being thrown around, the one I am not seeing updated is how many of the cases are still active. We show 400k+ cases, but a number of those have beat the virus and now now longer positive or able to transmit the virus.

As I mentioned weeks back, my boss was exposed by his sister on a visit back to NY. Thankfully, she beat it and has been symptom free for weeks. As far as I know, she has never been retested and been added to a statistic of covid free.

BTW...Her husband never showed symptoms so was never tested. My boss never showed symptoms, but actually did the antibody test (85% accurate he was told) this week and came back negative so he did not bring the virus back to California.

Here's a good site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Circa]

My attorney's office manager died this morning of Covid.

Went to the hospital yesterday evening.

Started feeling bad Monday around lunch.

They closed the office on March 27, switching to telecommute.

I dropped papers off to her on the 20th.

55 y/o smoker in good health otherwise.

Very nice lady who was life long friends with one of my distant cousins I found out during one of our numerous talks. RIP

I've been wearing masks for over a week.

Sorry to hear that.

 

[ab2cmiller]

https://www.livescience.com/covid19-coronavirus-tests-false-negatives.html

It’s not uncommon for dx tests to not be 100% accurate. This article actually says that 30% are False Negatives. The number I’ve heard reported has been 20%.

So even if 30% of the people that actually do have COVID, come back with a false negative, that still wouldn't push that overall positive test rate over 30% (I calculated around 28%).

Obviously it's still concerning that the false negative could be that high and the implications in trying to isolate people who actually do have the virus.

 

[Circa]

I just read that these are symptoms...
Reported illnesses have ranged from people with mild symptoms to people being severely ill and dying.

Symptoms can include:

Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
They' want everyone that Isn't completely healthy on a diet of self awareness to worry. I am short of breath all of the time and this has been going on for years... I have a smokers cough too and I suffer from allergies so my eyes are starting to water and are itchy at times... and my nose Is running... Heaven forbid, I actually sneezed a few times today.

Good luck! The Idea of spring cleaning and going outside to boost your immune system that I grew up understanding has now been killed.

More people will die because of the fear mongering, than any coronavirus would ever kill. It's a shame.
When you sit in a house that recirculates your toilet air around for years on end... It'll be Ebola next.

I'm buying stock on air filters as soon as I get off the pot.

 

[wizards8507]

55 y/o smoker in good health otherwise.

Dude.

 

[Sea Turtle]

I just read that these are symptoms...
Reported illnesses have ranged from people with mild symptoms to people being severely ill and dying.

Symptoms can include:

Fever
Cough
Shortness of breath
They' want everyone that Isn't completely healthy on a diet of self awareness to worry. I am short of breath all of the time and this has been going on for years... I have a smokers cough too and I suffer from allergies so my eyes are starting to water and are itchy at times... and my nose Is running... Heaven forbid, I actually sneezed a few times today.

Good luck! The Idea of spring cleaning and going outside to boost your immune system that I grew up understanding has now been killed.

More people will die because of the fear mongering, than any coronavirus would ever kill. It's a shame.
When you sit in a house that recirculates your toilet air around for years on end... It'll be Ebola next.

I'm buying stock on air filters as soon as I get off the pot.

I agree, Circa. But I say the same stuff and I'm a 'Cat in the Hat'.

This has been one of me and many others' main
points throughout this whole thing. The worry, panic, hysteria and overreaction to this worldwide is too much. If you are old or smoke, you should certainly be concerned.
This is so close to the flu in structure and symptoms that it's giving false test results and yet we're commanded 'dont you dare compare this to a bad flu'.

 

[Sea Turtle]

It's funny you bring this up. There are more strains of Influenza then we really understand and people that say they had the vaccine for the flu are not getting every antibody associated with all of the different strands. I got the flu "vaccine" 3-4 years ago and I ended up sicker that year then any other year of my life. (Fever-hallucinations and craziness from both ends of my body)

IMHO, this coronavirus Is very similar and why people are testing positive-then negative - than positive again seems like flu/cold antigens. The corona virus has been around for a long time and I'm no expert but 1+1 =2...
4 If your involved with the government/media these days......... they'll just add all the numbers they see and say HEY!


Hay is for horses,
Straw is for cows,
Milk is for babies
That cry out loud.

And I'll just say before anybody else does: don't you dare compare this to the flu! It's dangerous and irresponsible!

 

[IrishLax]

IMHE models revised down to 60k deaths with a peak in 3 days. Good news for a May/June return to normal.

 

[TorontoGold]

I agree, Circa. But I say the same stuff and I'm a 'Cat in the Hat'.

This has been one of me and many others' main
points throughout this whole thing. The worry, panic, hysteria and overreaction to this worldwide is too much. If you are old or smoke, you should certainly be concerned.
This is so close to the flu in structure and symptoms that it's giving false test results and yet we're commanded 'dont you dare compare this to a bad flu'.

It's because the flu doesn't overrun hospitals, not sure what's so hard to understand here. A bit tough to do preventive medicine when it's all hands on deck.

Overreacting to it has always been the best course of action, literally every medical professional has advocated for a swift response to this. Sitting back and keeping the economy open as if nothing happened has decimated the countries that tried it. Boris Johnson's approach didn't really seem to go over so well.

 

[Legacy]

My attorney's office manager died this morning of Covid.

Went to the hospital yesterday evening.

Started feeling bad Monday around lunch.

They closed the office on March 27, switching to telecommute.

I dropped papers off to her on the 20th.

55 y/o smoker in good health otherwise.

Very nice lady who was life long friends with one of my distant cousins I found out during one of our numerous talks. RIP

I've been wearing masks for over a week.

Very sorry to hear this, Crusader. This is one dangerous bug. Beginning symptoms less than 48 hours prior to death, went to the hospital thirty hours later, died twelve hours or so later.

Assumptions are that she had good insurance, saw her PCP, received meds for any chronic conditions which probably were under control, "went to the ER" probably means she drove there or someone else drove her (not by ambulance) and that she was admitted to the ICU. I understand some people may not initially be in Serious condition and may be on just supplemental oxygen, then quickly deteriorate to critical and succumb.

I'm sure it's pretty shocking to remember her from two days ago and that she may have felt almost like a family member. One of our family members is home now recovering from COVID-19, but on self-isolation. She is an ICU nurse.

I imagine a lot of those who die at home that are suspicious of COVID-19 will end up classified as the cause. The revised mortality figures for them and for those being reviewed attributed to the flu or something else will only increase. I don't think we should be accused for underreporting our mortality figures though.