COVID-19

[zelezo vlk]

Most states have “shelter in place” right now. I assume most of you are under that in your respective states. How truly restrictive is it? Can you still go to the store for supplies/food/Rx? Can you take walks around your neighborhood? Can you go through drive thru restaurants for pick up orders?

Just curious.

Texas here and yes to all 3.

 

[Sea Turtle]

So what's your point? That the flu with it's vaccines and FDA-approved OTC medications has a death rate of .0011% this year?

The point is that with vaccines and over one hundred years of experience with it, the flu still managed to kill way more people than Covid.

Some of you are seriously underestimating the flu.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Stop comparing it to the Flu. It's not only dangerous but detrimental to society.

Don't sleep on the flu. It's a real killer. And it kills kids as well as the elderly.

 

[TorontoGold]

Don't sleep on the flu. It's a real killer. And it kills kids as well as the elderly.

Vaccines wouldn't be developed if people didn't take the flu seriously.

 

[Irish#1]

 

[Irish#1]

Same for Ohio. They encourage you to stay home, but it's restrictive when you do go out. You can't sit in restaurants, it's take out only and in some cases drive thru only. For sit down restaurants, many with two entrances now have an "Exit Only" and "Entrance Only." I went to one last night where the doors were propped open so you don't touch them, and they had arrows taped down to the floor to show you where you stand until your food is ready. Take out orders were huddled together on a large table, all other tables in the restaurant are gone.

Stores have Entrance/Exit only too. Wal-Mart has locked all their entrances except for one, and even that has been sectioned off with carts so one sliding door is entrance only and the other is an exit. Other than that, shopping hasn't really changed. For some reason self checkouts are allowed to operate normally, people aren't 6 feet apart there.

You can go to a park to walk, but you can't do anything else. Amenities like fountains, playgrounds, picnic areas, etc have been roped off with yellow tape to keep people away. There's even a small, private park behind my house that has been roped off.

That's pretty much how Indiana is, except the governor cracked down and is more restrictive on essential businesses. Stores like JoAnn fabrics were still open. They can online take online orders now. Pickup is drive up only.

 

[IrishLax]

Most models are projecting a peak within the next two weeks and steady decline after that assuming that "social distancing" stays in effect into May. Virginia is currently June 10, which seems excessive considering the number of cases in the state.

Because of the steps taken, total deaths in the United States now projected around 80k in most models with 40k on the low end and 120k on the high end.

 

[Irishize]

Same for Ohio. They encourage you to stay home, but it's restrictive when you do go out. You can't sit in restaurants, it's take out only and in some cases drive thru only. For sit down restaurants, many with two entrances now have an "Exit Only" and "Entrance Only." I went to one last night where the doors were propped open so you don't touch them, and they had arrows taped down to the floor to show you where you stand until your food is ready. Take out orders were huddled together on a large table, all other tables in the restaurant are gone.

Stores have Entrance/Exit only too. Wal-Mart has locked all their entrances except for one, and even that has been sectioned off with carts so one sliding door is entrance only and the other is an exit. Other than that, shopping hasn't really changed. For some reason self checkouts are allowed to operate normally, people aren't 6 feet apart there.

You can go to a park to walk, but you can't do anything else. Amenities like fountains, playgrounds, picnic areas, etc have been roped off with yellow tape to keep people away. There's even a small, private park behind my house that has been roped off.

So I live in Arkansas and we are one of the last 8 states to not issue statewide “stay at home” orders but it sounds like semantics b/c we have the same restrictions as everyone that has responded to my original question.

Even Wal-Mart limits how many people can be inside at once so there are sometimes lines outside. All restaurants/bars are closed other than pick up/drive thru orders. We can have food delivered and specify how to receive it beforehand to minimize human contact.

Parks & school grounds (track, fields, courts, etc) are prohibited from the public. Most non-COVID cases are treated via Tele-medicine. Non-essential stores are closed.

 

[wizards8507]

Most states have “shelter in place” right now. I assume most of you are under that in your respective states. How truly restrictive is it? Can you still go to the store for supplies/food/Rx? Can you take walks around your neighborhood? Can you go through drive thru restaurants for pick up orders?

Just curious.

Connecticut, yes we can do all of those things. And the neighbors aren't being little bitches about it either. Everyone is chatting and rolling their eyes at the whole thing. Our neighbors have been very excited to meet the baby.

My dad came to visit a few weeks ago and then when he went back in to work they sent him home for "leaving the state." So now he has a week off with pay.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Don't sleep on the flu. It's a real killer. And it kills kids as well as the elderly.

The flu is deadly, no question which is why the vaccine is so important. And yet there are millions of people in our country who think the vaccine will give them the disease or its some sort of nonsense government conspiracy.

But our health care system accommodates flu every year because its predictable in season, scope, and severity. Flu is endemic, meaning it has regular seasonal occurrence. COVID 19 is a pandemic, something our health care systems are not built to accommodate. It is not predictable. It is more transmissible. And by all accounts is more deadly.

 

[Irishize]

Interesting tweet thread on the IMHE models

https://twitter.com/yossigestetner/status/1247565334434938880?s=21

 

[ab2cmiller]

Interesting tweet thread on the IMHE models

https://twitter.com/yossigestetner/status/1247565334434938880?s=21

Thank you for that post. Was certainly an eye opener how bad the models were. I've been looking at those IMHE projections for a week or so. Sounds like New York projection was screwed.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Do we really believe the entire western world is complicit in a conspiracy that fits our own political agenda? The inconsistences in these models will be ammunition for this ridiculous political game we are constantly bombarded with in this country. This is something that is almost impossible to predict for many reasons. But we will all be subject to the talking heads calling out people in healthcare as part of some political campaign, when they are just trying to save lives. Do we all realize this virus is being studied in real time, like its never been studied before, like we don't know it's exact behavior? Maybe the warmer weather is dampening the spread. Maybe there is something inherent in Europe's population causing more susceptibility. Maybe we are better at social distancing (doubt it). Maybe the virus itself has already experienced some genetic drift, changing its transmissibility and mortality.

 

[Circa]

This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Do we really believe the entire western world is complicit in a conspiracy that fits our own political agenda? The inconsistences in these models will be ammunition for this ridiculous political game we are constantly bombarded with in this country. This is something that is almost impossible to predict for many reasons. But we will all be subject to the talking heads calling out people in healthcare as part of some political campaign, when they are just trying to save lives. Do we all realize this virus is being studied in real time, like its never been studied before, like we don't know it's exact behavior? Maybe the warmer weather is dampening the spread. Maybe there is something inherent in Europe's population causing more susceptibility. Maybe we are better at social distancing (doubt it). Maybe the virus itself has already experienced some genetic drift, changing its transmissibility and mortality.

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[NDBoiler]

Lou dropping some knowledge:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6147787830001#sp=show-clips

 

[Legacy]

As may have been mentioned before, the pathophysiology of this novel coronovirus can cause a viral pneumonia, an inflammatory response in the pulmonary system, and can trigger adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), hypoxia and sepsis.

Some of these can also be the result of severe influenza and previous coronaviruses like SARS. InKellyWeTrust has posted a number of differences above from the flu and why so many are susceptible causing the pandemic.

One significant difference is that this coronavirus can cause cardiac injury and death at a rate much higher than either. Underlying cardiovascular disease and cardiac risk factors without CV are risk factors. Physicians are now reviewing deaths previously diagnosed as due to heart attacks (MIs) even if in those patients who did not have a fever or pulmonary signs. The recommendations now are for Cardiologists to review the patient through the ER instead of previous practice of sending them straight to the cath lab. Myocardial injury due to this coronavirus present would impact the decision on placement after any procedure.

This may help explain why those with hypertension, age >65, some young people and those without health insurance and do not have access to PCPs or delays in seeking treatment are affected.

We'll know more about this if the novel coronavirus returns in the fall and we do not have a vaccine.

COVID-19 linked to cardiac injury, worse outcomes for patients with heart conditions

Coronaviruses and the Cardiovascular System (American College of Cardiology)

Heart Damage in COVID Patients Puzzles Doctors
Up to 1 in 5 hospitalized patients have signs of heart injury. Cardiologists are trying to learn whether the virus attacks the organ


We'll also see whether those who survive the critical care no matter their age end up with permanent damage. This is much worse than influenza in this way too.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Know your audience:

Last week Alabama governor Kay Ivey issued a state-wide Stay-at-Home order and told Alabamians that if they wanted to have a better chance at a football season this year, they better take this all seriously and stay home.

 

[Irish YJ]

PR nightmare coming up. Imagine the outrage when the NBA is using tests kits on the same people over and over just to play a game while many go without getting tested.

I think availability is becoming less of an issue. A buddy's wife got tested and the results back within 24 hours (back in Indy). Guessing by the time the NBA tries to start back up, it'll be even better. I think testing availability in general will be key to getting everything opened back up.

On a good note, a HS buddy who was in the hospital, has recovered and sent home. I have another close friend I grew up with who has fever and thinks he's infected.

 

[Circa]

Know your audience:

Last week Alabama governor Kay Ivey issued a state-wide Stay-at-Home order and told Alabamians that if they wanted to have a better chance at a football season this year, they better take this all seriously and stay home.

I have a PSA for all of Alabama.
Go out and enjoy the spring, hug, love and wrap yourselves around each other. The whole separation thing Is just for everyone else.... The Tide Is and always has been beyond the rules everyone else has to play by...

Why Not?

 

[Circa]

I think availability is becoming less of an issue. A buddy's wife got tested and the results back within 24 hours (back in Indy). Guessing by the time the NBA tries to start back up, it'll be even better. I think testing availability in general will be key to getting everything opened back up.

On a good note, a HS buddy who was in the hospital, has recovered and sent home. I have another close friend I grew up with who has fever and thinks he's infected.

O yea? Well I got a friend that got a test back in 23 hours... "Na Na, Na Boo Boo. my 3 year old Is trolling again..."

 

[ulukinatme]

Lou dropping some knowledge:

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6147787830001#sp=show-clips

<script type="text/javascript" src="https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6147787830001&w=466&h=263"></script><noscript>Watch the latest video at <a href="https://www.foxnews.com">foxnews.com</a></noscript>

Hrm, guess it doesn't wanna embed. Good video though!

 

[Circa]

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[Circa]

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[Sea Turtle]

This is not directed at anyone in particular.
Do we really believe the entire western world is complicit in a conspiracy that fits our own political agenda? The inconsistences in these models will be ammunition for this ridiculous political game we are constantly bombarded with in this country. This is something that is almost impossible to predict for many reasons. But we will all be subject to the talking heads calling out people in healthcare as part of some political campaign, when they are just trying to save lives. Do we all realize this virus is being studied in real time, like its never been studied before, like we don't know it's exact behavior? Maybe the warmer weather is dampening the spread. Maybe there is something inherent in Europe's population causing more susceptibility. Maybe we are better at social distancing (doubt it). Maybe the virus itself has already experienced some genetic drift, changing its transmissibility and mortality.

Nobody thinks that. People do think, however, that the media has been hysterical about this. Once that happened, society and businesses freaked out because of fear of shortages and litigation fears

Also, this mortality rate is not a true number, which I'm sure you know. So many people have this and are asymptopatic. So many people will get this and never even know they had it.

As these models become more and more absurd and things calm down, I really think some people just don't want to believe that they bought this at face value, were taken by bad info and panicked. They want to feel justified. Which is understandable.

 

[JurDocDuLac]

Here is a Domer doing good for Covid-19 patients.

Jeffrey S., ’04 Mendoza MBA is educating physicians about how to use hospital-grade BiPAP machines as ventilators.

Think your CPAP could work as a home ventilator? Don´t do it - it spews out the virus in the immediate environment!

But hospital-grade BiPAPs are common in hospitals. Jeffery decided to look into it with the aid of his company and found a way that invasive BiPAP (BiPAP with intubation) may be used to delay mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

Jeffery started up the www.COVID-BiPAPinfo.com website, and is reaching out to physicians, hospitals and government. The education is available for free so healthcare providers can learn about the additional ventilators capacity they already have in their hospitals and rto physicians how to deliver invasive BiPAP to patients.
covid-bipapinfo(dot)com

You can read more about him on WEARE.ND.EDU
https://weare.nd.edu/stories/be-the-light-domers-fighting-covid-19/#stewart

His message for the Notre Dame family?
"Through small and simple things are great things brought to pass. It doesn't matter the scale of the problem before us. If we each do our part, "impossible" tasks can be accomplished, God willing."

 

[FDNYIrish1]

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

It’s incredibly difficult to accurately count or predict what is actually going on.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

It’s incredibly difficult to accurately count or predict what is actually going on.

Wow. This is the collateral damage that is difficult to quantify. Stay safe and thanks for being on the front line.

 

[NDRock]

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-nu...ls-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths

It’s incredibly difficult to accurately count or predict what is actually going on.

We've been to a few DOAs this past week (a little more than normal). Keep in mind, my department covers a city of 45,000 (not exactly NY). I'm assuming people are just afraid to leave the house and it's not COVID related. Medics say the hospitals are actually slower than normal. Think my whole county has 25 or so confirmed cases out of 100,000+.

Obviously New York is dealing with the virus more than everyone else so many of these are probably virus related.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Nobody thinks that. People do think, however, that the media has been hysterical about this. Once that happened, society and businesses freaked out because of fear of shortages and litigation fears

Also, this mortality rate is not a true number, which I'm sure you know. So many people have this and are asymptopatic. So many people will get this and never even know they had it.

As these models become more and more absurd and things calm down, I really think some people just don't want to believe that they bought this at face value, were taken by bad info and panicked. They want to feel justified. Which is understandable.

Ok, I dont want to come across abrasive but do you understand the crisis NY is in right now? People keep obsessing over these models. But in real life NYC is struggling! FDNY just shared some statistics about the staggering number of people dying in their homes and at the scene when EMS arrive. If we allowed business to go on as usual NY would be seeing a continued exponential increase in deaths and cases until they reached that herd immunity. But herd immunity doesn't kick in until around 50-70% of the population has acquired the disease or asympomatically developed an antibody response.

Even if the mortality rate is 0.5% which is the absolute lowest rate I have seen quoted, that's still 750k dead bodies and 4-5 x that would need hospital care across the country, and this doesn't even take into account the number of those that would need ICU care or the meds to keep them paralyzed or the nurses or RTs to care for them. And this best case scenario mortality rate is assuming we can care for all those needing hospitalized and they wont die without proper care. But that's absurd to think we could create an additional 400% capacity of hospital beds and an additional 1000% capacity in ICU beds to properly care for everyone simultaneously. We have around 1 million hospital beds and a little over 100k ICU beds in this country. Play with the numbers to get it to work. It wont. Unless you assume something like 90% asymptomatic rate. Maybe once this is behind us and the numbers are calculated in total this will be the case. But this is an incredibly dangerous assumption that nobody can make or calculate at this time.

But I understand our country is very diverse demographically so it's absolutely right to say that most states are not going to be like NY. But how do you tell Ohio or Arizona or Arkansas to just go about their business as usual because "Well, we dont think it will happen to you."

Bottom line. As we get more information the picture becomes clearer. Until we are really damn sure we know what we are dealing with, nobody in the medical field is going to back down from protecting people from themselves. And I hope the extent of this is far, far less severe than the current projections. Everyone wins in that case.

 

[arrowryan]

Most models are projecting a peak within the next two weeks and steady decline after that assuming that "social distancing" stays in effect into May. Virginia is currently June 10, which seems excessive considering the number of cases in the state.

Because of the steps taken, total deaths in the United States now projected around 80k in most models with 40k on the low end and 120k on the high end.

Is the AG talking out of his ass then or what? I’m pretty sure he said this week was going to be the worst week, but it also feels like they’ve been saying that for 2 weeks now. It sucks that we haven’t seen the peak yet when most states have had travel bans and quarantined for 2+ weeks now. Maybe the social distancing idea was too good to be true.