COVID-19

[317Irish]

Anyone seen the stuff going around SM about Dean Koontz's 1981 book calling for a Wuhan 400 virus in 2020? Not a perfect like for like for sure, but strange as hell.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...d-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

Per the article, the part about the disease occurring in 2020 isn’t from his book. Instead it is from a 2008 book by a different author. So basically he somewhat nailed the Wuhan portion, but only in a second version put out in 1989.
Arguably, his prediction is still impressive, but I wanted to clarify some of the additional misinformation being spread after reading that article.

 

[koonja]

Stocks dropped again today. Just bought another $3K a few minutes ago.

Thanks Corona freakers #Billions

 

[ACamp1900]

Anyone seen the stuff going around SM about Dean Koontz's 1981 book calling for a Wuhan 400 virus in 2020? Not a perfect like for like for sure, but strange as hell.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...d-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

Nothing will ever top Futility coming out years before the Titanic sailed. I’m still fascinated with that one.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

If you have nothing of any educational value to add to this thread, quit posting. Seriously. The amount of bullshit I've had to read is unbelievable.

This is more contagious than the flu. More deadly than the flu. Not enough people are getting tested. We don't have any vaccine or "Tamiflu" type treatment. IF this country looks anything like Germany or Italy in the next month or two, our healthcare system will have serious complications.

THIS ISN'T ABOUT YOU. It's about the high risk people you may spread it to who's immune systems cannot handle being compromised. And if/when enough of these people end up in the hospital or ICU, not all of them will be able to receive treatments. STOP being short sighted and selfish.

 

[Irish#1]

A quick recap after a little googling. Seems we get better at minimizing deaths. I wonder how we would have reacted in 2009 if SM media was as prevalent? Twitter and FB were in their infancy and Instagram didn't launch until 2010.

The Spanish flu 1918, resulted in an estimated fifty million deaths, 675,000 deaths in the U.S.

The Asian Flu 1957, resulted in an estimated one million to four million deaths, 70,000 deaths in the U.S.

The Hong Kong flu 1968, resulted in an estimated one million to four million deaths, 34,000 deaths in the U.S.

The Swine flu 2009, resulted in an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 deaths, 4,000 deaths in the U.S.

 

[NDohio]

So, with sports being cancelled for the foreseeable future, how many babies will be born in ~40 weeks?

 

[koonja]

If you have nothing of any educational value to add to this thread, quit posting. Seriously. The amount of bullshit I've had to read is unbelievable.

This is more contagious than the flu. More deadly than the flu. Not enough people are getting tested. We don't have any vaccine or "Tamiflu" type treatment. IF this country looks anything like Germany or Italy in the next month or two, our healthcare system will have serious complications.

THIS ISN'T ABOUT YOU. It's about the high risk people you may spread it to who's immune systems cannot handle being compromised. And if/when enough of these people end up in the hospital or ICU, not all of them will be able to receive treatments. STOP being short sighted and selfish.

These two sentences fly directly in the face of each other.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Stocks dropped again today. Just bought another $3K a few minutes ago.

Thanks Corona freakers #Billions

You posted this before the bell rang?

 

[NDdomer2]

So, with sports being cancelled for the foreseeable future, how many babies will be born in ~40 weeks?

I asked a guy at work - are we going to see a baby boom or a need for more divorce lawyers?

The social norm in households is changing rapidly.

 

[NDBoiler]

Stocks dropped again today. Just bought another $3K a few minutes ago.

Thanks Corona freakers #Billions

But you lost out when you spent that other money yesterday instead of today

 

[koonja]

You posted this before the bell rang?

But you lost out when you spent that other money yesterday instead of today

Huh? Or is this just another one of your drive bys?

Hah, I certainly did. It was a couple of dollars cheaper today than yesterday.

 

[NDdomer2]

These two sentences fly directly in the face of each other.

not to mention 1) it is far to early to put any reliance on statistical data 2) there will never been a full data set to analyze due to a variety of factors

If you are looking for nothing but educational discussion on an infectious disease, im not sure a college football forum is the best place to be looking...

 

[irishnd31]

If you are looking for nothing but educational discussion on an infectious disease, im not sure a college football forum is the best place to be looking...

Yeah, I was just thinking this. This isn't the CDC website. This is a Norte Dame chat board.

 

[GATTACA!]

I agree my comments are simplistic in nature and this is very complicated. But I think that's also what I'm wondering as far as is two weeks too simplistic. Considering the lack of any real data on the number actually infected, and the inability to ever test everyone we would need to do any comprehensive tracing of exposure. (See Ohio governor's estimate on actual infected and requirements needed for actual testing). At around 2.2 infection rate (vs 1.1 for influenza) that 100k in Ohio is about 1.6m in ~ two weeks time. The curve may already be on the lift hill climb so to speak.



I understand how it's passed for sure by not being at work or school doesn't exactly stop the general public from being in people's proximity. For instance if I was a college kid getting 3 weeks spring break and not getting to go to Florida I'm creating spring break where I currently reside.

As to kids just a random outside the box thought-Wouldn't infecting individuals with lower contagion rates be ideal for curve flattening though? I'm not proposing infecting the world's youth as a solution.

It's not a perfect solution, there isn't really one other than going all out like China did and forcefully quarantining everyone which would never happen here.

Like I said in another post this isn't going to "stop" the virus. We'll all still get it at some point over the next few years. The social distancing going on right now is just meant to ensure that we don't all get it in 4-6 weeks which would be a national crisis.

To your second point idk. As far as I know we don't really know yet what type of immunity getting the virus gives you in the future. Also even if you were immunized from already having contracted the virus in the past you can still be a carrier infecting others. Also it's not just that kids don't get seriously ill from this, they aren't contracting it at all. So if you exposed a school full of children only 2% are even going to b infected. The rest are just going to pass it along to mom, dad, or grandma and grandpa who all can actually contract it.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

These two sentences fly directly in the face of each other.

Are you serious? You do realize this is happening in other countries and it's being studied by all kinds of epidemiologists and agencies, right?

It's not being tested enough in our own country. By use of data in other countries they're able to approximate ranges for the death rate. Even the most conservative number of 1% (with the understanding that it's probably lower given that many people aren't being tested) it's STILL higher than the death rate of the flu by 10x.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

not to mention 1) it is far to early to put any reliance on statistical data 2) there will never been a full data set to analyze due to a variety of factors

If you are looking for nothing but educational discussion on an infectious disease, im not sure a college football forum is the best place to be looking...

This forum offers a multitude of topics that provide serious discussion. This is a serious topic and a lot of people on this site are posting like it's Facebook.

 

[GowerND11]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tarahaelle/2020/03/13/why-everything-is-closing-for-coronavirus-its-called-flattening-the-curve/#464ceaf46e2b

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Are you serious? You do realize this is happening in other countries and it's being studied by all kinds of epidemiologists and agencies, right?

It's not being tested enough in our own country. By use of data in other countries they're able to approximate ranges for the death rate. Even the most conservative number of 1% (with the understanding that it's probably lower given that many people aren't being tested) it's STILL higher than the death rate of the flu by 10x.

Anyway, we don't need to calculate individual percentages based off our incomplete data. Is Lombardy expanded to the whole of the U.S. an acceptable outcome that warrants no countermeasures?

 

[koonja]

Are you serious? You do realize this is happening in other countries and it's being studied by all kinds of epidemiologists and agencies, right?

It's not being tested enough in our own country. By use of data in other countries they're able to approximate ranges for the death rate. Even the most conservative number of 1% (with the understanding that it's probably lower given that many people aren't being tested) it's STILL higher than the death rate of the flu by 10x.

I'm not an expert but I'm very aware of what's going on. I'm solely responsible for any/all phamacy operations over a population of 9 million members across 36 states.

Although I'm not a disease expert, I meet about this daily with people who actually know what their talking about (Twice with the CMO this week).

Everyone's bet is this is wildly underreported and we need to wait it out but look the part.

If you want to panic, panic. But I won't because Im having very candid conversations with people who know way more than me and they're not worried about this in the grand scheme of diseases.

 

[NDdomer2]

It's not a perfect solution, there isn't really one other than going all out like China did and forcefully quarantining everyone which would never happen here.

Like I said in another post this isn't going to "stop" the virus. We'll all still get it at some point over the next few years. The social distancing going on right now is just meant to ensure that we don't all get it in 4-6 weeks which would be a national crisis.

To your second point idk. As far as I know we don't really know yet what type of immunity getting the virus gives you in the future. Also even if you were immunized from already having contracted the virus in the past you can still be a carrier infecting others. Also it's not just that kids don't get seriously ill from this, they aren't contracting it at all. So if you exposed a school full of children only 2% are even going to b infected. The rest are just going to pass it along to mom, dad, or grandma and grandpa who all can actually contract it.

Do we actually know this? Using Legacy's post below, I wonder if kids are actually contagious if the bolded is true. I would consider infected kids as mild infections if they are having such drastic differences in infection rates and symptoms. Something to consider.

There is still so much unknown, and the panic that is setting over the country could be just as bad as some dramatic influx of patients on the health system. I wake up this morning to my mother asking me if i have cash reserves in case they close the banks to prevent bank runs. I mean come on. I'm not sure that bank runs, closing social systems creating hysteria is any better/worse than an overpopulated hospital. (obviously this is all ripe in worse case scenarios, just discussion)

A lot of good information on the natual history of COVID 19 is emerging not only looking at its epidemiology and interviews but by reseachers using PCR — polymerase chain reaction — measuring for tiny sections of the RNA of the virus. That indicates whether and how much a patient is shedding viral debris.

People with Covid-19 are emitting more than 1,000 times more virus than was emitted during peak shedding of SARS infection - and earlier. Researchers found very high levels of COVID 19 virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5 in all but two of the nine patients studied, had more serious illness. The two, who developed early signs of clinical pneumonia, continued to shed high levels of virus from the throat until about day 10 or 11.

Those who are only mildly sick are likely not still infectious by about 10 days after they start to experience symptoms. Results from interviews of those termed as asymptomatic are that it is truly rare. All patients with COVID 19 demonstrate some level of pneumonia with the lowest level being sub-clinical.

The earlier and greater peak of viral shedding may account for the rapid spread of confirmed Covid-19 cases that has already topped 125,000. With SARS, peak shedding of virus occurred later, when the virus had moved into the deep lungs. The SARS outbreak was contained after about 8,000 cases and the outbreak (as well as MERS) was mostly in hospitals.

Also, people who are infected begin to develop antibodies to the virus quickly, typically within six to 12 days. There is no evidence that people can get "re-infected". The rapid rise of antibodies may explain why about 80% of people infected with the virus do not develop severe disease.

Findings suggest measures to try to stop spread of the virus should focus on respiratory tract transmission — protecting others from the coughs and sneezes of people infected with the virus. People with mild infections can still test positive by throat swabs for days and even weeks after their illness, but are not infectious as measured by cultures.

 

[NDdomer2]

Complete side note - with the amount of losses the NCAA is about to take with no march madness, could this push them over the edge for expanded playoffs to make up for lost revenues?

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Huh? Or is this just another one of your drive bys?

Hah, I certainly did. It was a couple of dollars cheaper today than yesterday.

DJIA is up 3+% as of now

 

[Luckylucci]

Huh? Or is this just another one of your drive bys?

Hah, I certainly did. It was a couple of dollars cheaper today than yesterday.

The stock market wasn’t open at the time of you posting, is what his opening bell comment meant. The prices you saw were probably closing prices from yesterday. Hopefully you didn’t buy at the open, market opened up big.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Austin officially has 2 cases

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'm not an expert but I'm very aware of what's going on. I'm solely responsible for any/all phamacy operations over a population of 9 million members across 36 states.

Although I'm not a disease expert, I meet about this daily with people who actually know what their talking about (Twice with the CMO this week).

Everyone's bet is this is wildly underreported and we need to wait it out but look the part.

If you want to panic, panic. But I won't because Im having very candid conversations with people who know way more than me and they're not worried about this in the grand scheme of diseases.

I'm not panicking. I'm just not acting like this is a joke and brushing it off.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Complete side note - with the amount of losses the NCAA is about to take with no march madness, could this push them over the edge for expanded playoffs to make up for lost revenues?

I don't believe the NCAA runs the playoffs.

The hit is for those really small conference teams .

 

[koonja]

The stock market wasn’t open at the time of you posting, is what his opening bell comment meant. The prices you saw were probably closing prices from yesterday. Hopefully you didn’t buy at the open, market opened up big.

I see. I used yahoo finance tracker, then verified price at purchase with charles Schwab (where my account is).

I bought at these prices. If this was bad it's too late.

SWISX: $15
SWMCX: $33
SWPPX: $38
SWTSX: $42
SWSSX: $19

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The stock market wasn’t open at the time of you posting, is what his opening bell comment meant. The prices you saw were probably closing prices from yesterday. Hopefully you didn’t buy at the open, market opened up big.

Koon - sefl-described "not a financial expert" and "not a disease expert."

 

[ACamp1900]

Austin officially has 2 cases

I keep waiting for/expecting the "I'm the first IEer to be confirmed..." post... of course assuming it's gonna hit that person(s) mildly and whatnot when it does...

 

[Irishize]

Koon - sefl-described "not a financial expert" and "not a disease expert."

You think he’s the “Three Year Letterman” on Twitter?