CFB Playoff

[Guest]

Because an 8 versus 1 matchup means a big pile of bullshit can happen. Does anyone really think that Michigan State is better than Alabama? I doubt it. But what if they beat them in the first round on some flukey plays? That loss for Alabama because more important than their loss earlier in the year to Ole Miss, and that's not how college football is supposed to work. EVERY game matters.

If #1 cannot beat #8, then they aren't the best. The best team has to win consistently and when it needs to. If you cannot beat the #8 team in a playoff, you don't deserve to be a champion.

 

[koonja]

But they've theoretically earned that advantage. And that would give the "best" teams a better chance of winning the whole thing (wizards' concern).

I'd take 8 teams though.

Do you honestly think Oregon would have earned a bye over FSU? I definitely don't snd this would be an issue every year.

 

[Guest]

This requires a huge amount of top-down meddling, whether it's the NCAA or whatever apparatus the power five try to install. You'd need uniform conferences and conference rules. You'd lose independent scheduling and traditional rivalries.

Then there should not be a national champion. Your statement points to the flaws in the system, lack of consistent rules and the continual inability to crown a champion everyone can agree on. That is the problem with the system as it currently stands.

 

[wizards8507]

The number of games won by itself does not tell you who the best team is.

Exactly! Just like it can't tell you who the best team is, it can't tell you who the best 4, 6, 8, or 16 teams are. There just aren't enough games, aren't enough common opponents, aren't enough advanced analytics in the world to crown a "true" national champion when you have 100+ contestants and a teeny tiny sample size. I'm not saying I have a perfect "system" to choose the one true champion, I'm saying the very quest to crown "one, true national champion" is an exercise in futility.

Ironically, the Big 12 is the only conference with a legitimate champion and their system is what's keeping them out of the national picture.

 

[NCND]

I don't like that, before the first 4 team lineup was even announced, the national conversation is already focused on "We need to expand the number of teams"

Agree. At least let the first season of it play out.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Do you honestly think Oregon would have earned a bye over FSU? I definitely don't snd this would be an issue every year.

Could be. I still love that we're arguing over who should be 4 instead of who should be 2. I think this system is better than it has ever been.

 

[wizards8507]

If #1 cannot beat #8, then they aren't the best.

Alabama couldn't beat Ole Miss.
Oregon couldn't beat Arizona.
Ohio State couldn't beat Virgina Tech.

The "best" team doesn't win every single time. That's why you need "body of work" criteria, not single game outcomes.

The best team has to win consistently and when it needs to.

The "when" is what I have a problem with. It's completely arbitrary that a game in January should carry more weight than a game in November.

 

[T Town Tommy]

This requires a huge amount of top-down meddling, whether it's the NCAA or whatever apparatus the power five try to install. You'd need uniform conferences and conference rules. You'd lose independent scheduling and traditional rivalries.

It's gonna be difficult until we get all five power conferences included in a playoff somehow. What if Mizzou had beaten Alabama Saturday? Arguably the best conference in the country and not be represented in a playoff. That would be hard to square with most fans - conference allegiance aside. How would Delaney be acting today if OSU hadn't made it in? It's going to be controversy until they get all five represented. And I still think the setup is terribly difficult for ND to ever make it.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Exactly! Just like it can't tell you who the best team is, it can't tell you who the best 4, 6, 8, or 16 teams are. There just aren't enough games, aren't enough common opponents, aren't enough advanced analytics in the world to crown a "true" national champion when you have 100+ contestants and a teeny tiny sample size. I'm not saying I have a perfect "system" to choose the one true champion, I'm saying the very quest to crown "one, true national champion" is an exercise in futility.

Ironically, the Big 12 is the only conference with a legitimate champion and their system is what's keeping them out of the national picture.

So if they called it the playoff champion, would that make you feel better? Because it seems to me you are hung up on the definition of national champion given the set up. This would quell that, though the perception would still be NC.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Exactly! Just like it can't tell you who the best team is, it can't tell you who the best 4, 6, 8, or 16 teams are. There just aren't enough games, aren't enough common opponents, aren't enough advanced analytics in the world to crown a "true" national champion when you have 100+ contestants and a teeny tiny sample size. I'm not saying I have a perfect "system" to choose the one true champion, I'm saying the very quest to crown "one, true national champion" is an exercise in futility.

Ironically, the Big 12 is the only conference with a legitimate champion and their system is what's keeping them out of the national picture.

I guess I'm missing what you're proposing then. Can't have a champion, so why bother trying? No rankings?

 

[wizards8507]

Then there should not be a national champion. Your statement points to the flaws in the system, lack of consistent rules and the continual inability to crown a champion everyone can agree on. That is the problem with the system as it currently stands.

Right, that's my opinion. If the AP, the Coaches, ESPN, or whoever else want to release a final poll after the bowl games, they can go ahead and do that. Some folks will recognize them and others wont.

 

[wizards8507]

So if they called it the playoff champion, would that make you feel better?

Yes, actually. The Big East did this in basketball for years. The "Big East Champion" and the "Big East Tournament Champion" weren't always the same team.

*Other conferences might do this as well, but I don't follow college basketball very much.

 

[Irish#1]

No it doesn't. The games didn't matter for TCU and Baylor. What about Mich State and Miss State who both had really good years? I would take both of them over Ohio State, which I think is a fraud.

The problem with your argument is scheduling. The number of games won by itself does not tell you who the best team is. In addition, even conference championship games are flawed due to the heavyweight nature of some of the conferences themselves or where the two best teams are in the same division (SEC East, ACC Atlantic, Big10 East).

I don't care for Urban Liar or OSU, but after what they did to Wisconsin, I don't think they're a fraud. Especially when they thumped them with the third string QB. Like him or not, Meyer knows how to coach.

BTW.....Heard him on the radio talking about working to get the players weights back up in time for the playoffs. It's little details like that, that separate the great coaches from the good ones.

 

[Guest]

Alabama couldn't beat Ole Miss.
Oregon couldn't beat Arizona.
Ohio State couldn't beat Virgina Tech.

The "best" team doesn't win every single time. That's why you need "body of work" criteria, not single game outcomes.


The "when" is what I have a problem with. It's completely arbitrary that a game in January should carry more weight than a game in November.

Disagree on both points. For the second, it does matter because we are 1) dealing with kids and 2) teams mature over time. That is the beauty of a straight playoff. A loss early on does not deter you from becoming champion when you earn it on the back-end. This reflects more closely real life where early mistakes teach success for later on in life.

For the first, the body of work cannot be settled by a committee who cannot be at every game or watch every game in every conference. Small committees making decisions for entire leagues is a flawed idea to begin with. Settle it on the field.

 

[Guest]

I don't care for Urban Liar or OSU, but after what they did to Wisconsin, I don't think they're a fraud. Especially when they thumped them with the third string QB. Like him or not, Meyer knows how to coach.

BTW.....Heard him on the radio talking about working to get the players weights back up in time for the playoffs. It's little details like that, that separate the great coaches from the good ones.

Ok, but who is Wisconsin. What is their schedule? This is a terrible argument.

 

[Black Irish]

Even if the process was debatable, I like the outcome for what 4 teams are in. The narratives for the match ups are good, and, like it or not, the storylines & mythologies come into play.

Saban & Meyer may have deficiencies as human beings, but as a CFB fan, it's a draw to see the best 2 coaches in CFB square off. I'll certainly watch that game, whereas if it was 'Bama vs TCU, I could take a pass.

Oregon vs FSU. You've got last year's Heisman winning QB squaring off against this year's (very likely) Heisman winning QB. Two high octane offenses that are going to be fun to watch. The reigning National Champion taking on the perpetual bridegroom but never a bride, Oregon.

What I'm saying, is that I think the best 4 got in. And if the choice was so close between OSU, Baylor, and TCU for spot number 4, I don't have that much of a problem if OSU got the nod because they make a better story and capture more interest than the other two teams.

 

[Guest]

Right, that's my opinion. If the AP, the Coaches, ESPN, or whoever else want to release a final poll after the bowl games, they can go ahead and do that. Some folks will recognize them and others wont.

Your arguments have completely missed the point, that others have tried to make with you, that you can crown a national champion if you open up the field and play enough games. Not sure why you have consistently been so stubborn on the topic but your view appears myopic.

I'll stop engaging since you won't see opinions other than your own, lol.

 

[Guest]

It's gonna be difficult until we get all five power conferences included in a playoff somehow. What if Mizzou had beaten Alabama Saturday? Arguably the best conference in the country and not be represented in a playoff. That would be hard to square with most fans - conference allegiance aside. How would Delaney be acting today if OSU hadn't made it in? It's going to be controversy until they get all five represented. And I still think the setup is terribly difficult for ND to ever make it.

This is ok but has flaws. Where one conference is over-weighted such as where many view the SEC right now (or whatever conference is dominating).

The ultimate solution would be more complex and mirror more the pro system. Take your conference champions, take a few wildcards, and make sure conferences play each other in a healthy enough rotation that we can make valid comparisons for potential head to head match-ups (and SoS).

This is harder in college football but it could be done with proper planning. But the schools don't want to give up their individual decision making on scheduling, so the conferences cannot organize the field this way. Instead, they try to bolt-on a flawed BCS or playoff system on the end that doesn't settle all of the questions. And we continue to get mythical national champions instead of real ones.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I don't care for Urban Liar or OSU, but after what they did to Wisconsin, I don't think they're a fraud. Especially when they thumped them with the third string QB. Like him or not, Meyer knows how to coach.

BTW.....Heard him on the radio talking about working to get the players weights back up in time for the playoffs. It's little details like that, that separate the great coaches from the good ones.

You mean the same Wisconsin team that OOC beat USF, Bowling Green and Western Ill? The Wisconsin team with the best victory over Nebraska, whose best victory was over 6-6 Miami? By the way, FEI says that Wisconsin isn't a top 25 team, let alone a top 15. The whole "Wisconsin has a top defense" argument is lame too considering their defensive FEI is ranked 31st.

 

[Irish Insanity]

I think it should be a 6 team playoff.

Sign me up

Give 1 and 2 a bye. I think 8 is to many.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

You mean the same Wisconsin team that OOC beat USF, Bowling Green and Western Ill? The Wisconsin team with the best victory over Nebraska, whose best victory was over 6-6 Miami? By the way, FEI says that Wisconsin isn't a top 25 team, let alone a top 15. The whole "Wisconsin has a top defense" argument is lame too considering their defensive FEI is ranked 31st.

Hype machine was turned on high for Wisconsin, GT, and Mizzou this past weekend to build suspense.

The B1G sucked from week one and OSU just so happened to skate by into the playoffs by beating other B1G schools. I honestly preferred Baylor but since OSU blew out Wisc and had a better SOS, it's hard to argue.

You're right though, Wisconsin was not great this year. Neither was Nebraska or MSU.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Hype machine was turned on high for Wisconsin, GT, and Mizzou this past weekend to build suspense.

The B1G sucked from week one and OSU just so happened to skate by into the playoffs by beating other B1G schools. I honestly preferred Baylor but since OSU blew out Wisc and had a better SOS, it's hard to argue.

You're right though, Wisconsin was not great this year. Neither was Nebraska or MSU.

You know what is interesting though? By efficiency standards, GT is the 3rd best team in the country, largely due to having the #1 most efficient offense opponent-adjusted. They also had the 14th hardest strength of schedule (including the bowl game).

I personally thought TCU should get the nod given that of the three teams, they had the best OOC victory. From an efficiency standpoint, TCU and OSU are about the same. Baylor was a step below those two and I cannot reward a team for playing their OOC schedule.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

You know what is interesting though? By efficiency standards, GT is the 3rd best team in the country, largely due to having the #1 most efficient offense opponent-adjusted. They also had the 14th hardest strength of schedule (including the bowl game).

I personally thought TCU should get the nod given that of the three teams, they had the best OOC victory. From an efficiency standpoint, TCU and OSU are about the same. Baylor was a step below those two and I cannot reward a team for playing their OOC schedule.

I didn't know that about GT. I guess I just wrote them off because they lost three games in a pretty weak conference. Just out of curiosity, where are you getting these stats? I never know where to find them.

Baylor's OOC schedule was horrendous and of the three in discussion, they had the second worst loss. I believe their SOS was the lowest as well. They did beat TCU though, which is why I struggle with TCU being ahead of Baylor. TCU beating Minn doesn't do anything for me. I don't trust their #25 ranking, frankly because I feel the B1G got a friendly boost from the committee this year. I basically took TCU and Baylor straight up and the deciding factor is head-to-head. Overall, I'm satisfied with OSU at #4. But I'd be more satisfied if the playoffs were 8 teams instead (although, I'd be irate if Mich State at #8 got in with their bullshit resume but I digress).

 

[Huntr]

My wishes for CFP:

I have been, and still am, in favor of an 8 team playoff. No conf champ guaranteed spots, either.

CFP committee is fine, but they need a real statistician on it, someone who can legit model SoS and make that a factor in their considerations. Also, no rankings week to week, although I know espn won't give that up - maybe they could release their rankings every 2 weeks and not instead of every week. I'd rather they just announce the final 8 on the Sunday after conf champ games. Also, 1st round is a home game for the top 4 seeds.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I didn't know that about GT. I guess I just wrote them off because they lost three games in a pretty weak conference. Just out of curiosity, where are you getting these stats? I never know where to find them.

Baylor's OOC schedule was horrendous and of the three in discussion, they had the second worst loss. I believe their SOS was the lowest as well. They did beat TCU though, which is why I struggle with TCU being ahead of Baylor. TCU beating Minn doesn't do anything for me. I don't trust their #25 ranking, frankly because I feel the B1G got a friendly boost from the committee this year. I basically took TCU and Baylor straight up and the deciding factor is head-to-head. Overall, I'm satisfied with OSU at #4. But I'd be more satisfied if the playoffs were 8 teams instead (although, I'd be irate if Mich State at #8 got in with their bullshit resume but I digress).

Footballoutsiders.com

 

[dad4aa]

Don't know if this has been covered but I found this quote from playoff committee chairman upsetting...

"During an interview on ESPN on Sunday, selection committee chairman Jeff Long made it pretty clear that the Bears and Horned Frogs were hurt by not playing in a conference championship game."

Is this their way of getting ND to stay out of the playoff picture unless they join a conference? While both Baylor and TCU had a weak OOC schedule, they both appeared to have more quality victories and more important did not lose to a 6-6 team. Anyone have thoughts on this issue?

 

[IrishinSyria]

Don't know if this has been covered but I found this quote from playoff committee chairman upsetting...

"During an interview on ESPN on Sunday, selection committee chairman Jeff Long made it pretty clear that the Bears and Horned Frogs were hurt by not playing in a conference championship game."

Is this their way of getting ND to stay out of the playoff picture unless they join a conference? While both Baylor and TCU had a weak OOC schedule, they both appeared to have more quality victories and more important did not lose to a 6-6 team. Anyone have thoughts on this issue?

O, I got thoughts alright...

a) Without a doubt, the way it played out is bad news for ND.

b) If the committee was trying to send a message though, it was not to ND but to the BIG 12. Their attempt to hedge their bets by declaring two one true champions backfired.

c) Michigan, Stanford, and USC being down is going to kill us in years we play well but are not perfect.

d) Ohio State's loss came on the first game of the year and their schedule is actually pretty comparable to the BIG XII duo's schedule in terms of strength.

e) Silver lining in all of this may be that the 4 big money schools got in and the 2 (relatively) regional ones got left out. That's not good for the integrity of CFB, but it's great for Notre Dame.

 

[dad4aa]

O, I got thoughts alright...

a) Without a doubt, the way it played out is bad news for ND.

b) If the committee was trying to send a message though, it was not to ND but to the BIG 12. Their attempt to hedge their bets by declaring two one true champions backfired.

c) Michigan, Stanford, and USC being down is going to kill us in years we play well but are not perfect.

d) Ohio State's loss came on the first game of the year and their schedule is actually pretty comparable to the BIG XII duo's schedule in terms of strength.

e) Silver lining in all of this may be that the 4 big money schools got in and the 2 (relatively) regional ones got left out. That's not good for the integrity of CFB, but it's great for Notre Dame.

Agree with all these thoughts but with one clarification on the bolded. OSU lost the second game of the year after beating Navy in their opener.

I agree with the other part of point d that their SOS seemed comparable but the losses each team had were not and that is where the committee failed to follow what they said they would.

 

[dublinirish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Meanwhile, in Wisconsin... <a href="http://t.co/UQawS2wJv7">pic.twitter.com/UQawS2wJv7</a></p>— Eleven Warriors (@11W) <a href="https://twitter.com/11W/status/542204428539801600">December 9, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishJayhawk]

O, I got thoughts alright...

a) Without a doubt, the way it played out is bad news for ND.

b) If the committee was trying to send a message though, it was not to ND but to the BIG 12. Their attempt to hedge their bets by declaring two one true champions backfired.

c) Michigan, Stanford, and USC being down is going to kill us in years we play well but are not perfect.

d) Ohio State's loss came on the first game of the year and their schedule is actually pretty comparable to the BIG XII duo's schedule in terms of strength.

e) Silver lining in all of this may be that the 4 big money schools got in and the 2 (relatively) regional ones got left out. That's not good for the integrity of CFB, but it's great for Notre Dame.

There's irony here...

The Big XII title game would have been Baylor vs. K-State. We got that game on Saturday.