Bowl Predictions 2019

[GATTACA!]

Sucks we're going to probably go 10-2 and end the year with such a wet fart of a bowl game.

 

[NDRock]

Guys there are objective measures on strength of schedule. UF has the 11th best we have the 29th best. Can’t argue they shouldn’t be ahead of us, unfortunately. (Not that NDaccountant was)

That's the 11th toughest schedule in the country? No wonder that it seems everyone is playing weak teams every week. At least Florida scheduled two Power 5 teams (FSU, Miami) of their 4 OOC games. Very rare for the SEC, only South Carolina and Georgia joining them.

 

[beryirish]

That's the 11th toughest schedule in the country? No wonder that it seems everyone is playing weak teams every week. At least Florida scheduled two Power 5 teams (FSU, Miami) of their 4 OOC games. Very rare for the SEC, only South Carolina and Georgia joining them.

Who knows - Florida/Florida State is a yearly traditional rivalry game and they used to play Miami every year as well up until the late 80's then it's been a few years here and there. If it wasn't for the traditional ties I'm sure they would go easier on their schedule as well.

 

[IrishLax]

Guys there are objective measures on strength of schedule. UF has the 11th best we have the 29th best. Can’t argue they shouldn’t be ahead of us, unfortunately. (Not that NDaccountant was)

Yeah, but ND has been routinely screwed on "objective" measures in the past when they've been in ND's favor. I can't remember how many times ND has had a harder strength of schedule than the comparable team and all you hear on ESPN is "eye test."

I don't think ND should be ranked higher than Florida, but I do think the current rankings are a bit of a joke. Seems to be a LOT of bias to ensure a PAC12 team doesn't get left out of the playoffs again. There was an experiment done the other day where all of the CFB experts (i.e. the guys who come up with the advanced stats, etc.) sat down and did a mock playoff committee. The result was Florida at #12 and Notre Dame at #14. Utah was #10. Utah has ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS being ranked 7th with a loss to mediocre USC and **ZERO** quality wins. Their ranking is completely incongruent with teams like Minnesota and Baylor who also have a loss and have played a soft schedule.

Long story short -- there is a ton of bias this year. Thank god ND is not truly in the hunt, because I'm concerned that even at 12-0 ND might've gotten screwed this year. There needs to be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQs (conference champsl) + a condition where a top 10 G5 team gets an AQ + 2-3 at-large spots. Having a 4 team playoff with 5 power conferences just causes and absolute shitton of politicking.

 

[Armyirish47]

Sucks we're going to probably go 10-2 and end the year with such a wet fart of a bowl game.

As long as we win the wet fart we will finish in the top 10 and lock in a pretty fantastic 3 year run with a fresh pair of undies for next year. Probably starting in the top 5 if Book comes back.

NOICE.

 

[beryirish]

Yeah, but ND has been routinely screwed on "objective" measures in the past when they've been in ND's favor. I can't remember how many times ND has had a harder strength of schedule than the comparable team and all you hear on ESPN is "eye test."

I don't think ND should be ranked higher than Florida, but I do think the current rankings are a bit of a joke. Seems to be a LOT of bias to ensure a PAC12 team doesn't get left out of the playoffs again. There was an experiment done the other day where all of the CFB experts (i.e. the guys who come up with the advanced stats, etc.) sat down and did a mock playoff committee. The result was Florida at #12 and Notre Dame at #14. Utah was #10. Utah has ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS being ranked 7th with a loss to mediocre USC and **ZERO** quality wins. Their ranking is completely incongruent with teams like Minnesota and Baylor who also have a loss and have played a soft schedule.

Long story short -- there is a ton of bias this year. Thank god ND is not truly in the hunt, because I'm concerned that even at 12-0 ND might've gotten screwed this year. There needs to be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQs (conference champsl) + a condition where a top 10 G5 team gets an AQ + 2-3 at-large spots. Having a 4 team playoff with 5 power conferences just causes and absolute shitton of politicking.

I'm still not all-in for Conference Champion AQ's. It does nothing to raise the stakes/competition to show off to the committee. They would still schedule FCS/cupcakes and their only goal is to win the conference so they can go to the CFP. The only thing they have to worry about with the committee is seeding but they are still in the dance.

It hasn't happened yet and I'm sure it will most likely never will but FCS team matchups need to be abolished. I'm more of a fan going with the best 8 overall regardless of conference rather than AQs.

 

[stlnd01]

Florida's top three games (LSU, Georgia, Auburn) have been tougher/better than our top three games (Georgia, Michigan, Navy).

The middle tier of our schedule (USC, Va., Va. Tech, Louisville) is probably better than theirs (Miami and various SEC middleweights). Also USC, Va Tech and Louisville have all improved significantly over the course of the season, but have too many losses for anyone to be "impressed" by us beating them.

Bottom third of the schedule doesn't really matter in this.

Objectively it's hard to argue we're more deserving than Florida is, mainly b/c of the Michigan debacle. But it's close. And I'd love to play them. If our offense is in shape I think it'd be a really good game.

The bigger problem for us is the strict bowl tie-ins (chiefly the ridiculous ACC situation) and the lack of at-large spots this year. It's too bad b/c the way this team has bounced back from Michigan (assuming it keeps up the last two weeks) is pretty impressive and they deserve a chance at redemption in a big-time bowl.

 

[stlnd01]

I'm still not all-in for Conference Champion AQ's. It does nothing to raise the stakes/competition to show off to the committee. They would still schedule FCS/cupcakes and their only goal is to win the conference so they can go to the CFP. The only thing they have to worry about with the committee is seeding but they are still in the dance.

It hasn't happened yet and I'm sure it will most likely never will but FCS team matchups need to be abolished. I'm more of a fan going with the best 8 overall regardless of conference rather than AQs.

I'm not sure what to make of conference champion AQs in an eight-team playoff. On one hand, it could be that winning a conference title becomes everything and so you schedule easy tune-ups for your nonconference games. On the other, if you don't win your conference - and not all the good teams will - wouldn't you want the chance for a quality nonconference win or two on your resume?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I'm not sure what to make of conference champion AQs in an eight-team playoff. On one hand, it could be that winning a conference title becomes everything and so you schedule easy tune-ups for your nonconference games. On the other, if you don't win your conference - and not all the good teams will - wouldn't you want the chance for a quality nonconference win or two on your resume?

There is one conference where the champion is basically guaranteed a spot in the CFP. How is their OOC scheduling?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Guys, we dont deserve a top tier bowl this year. We had 2 games against big boy football programs, got slaughtered in one and close loss in the other. The rest of our schedule isn't going to move the needle for most even though the boys played well in stretches.

And I'm fine with this season. It's unfortunate that the casual fan only remembers we lost the 2 games that mattered on our schedule. If this is the new "low" season for Kelly coached ND then the program is in good shape.

Bring on the Camping World Bowl and an 11-2 finish. Next year sets up well without any true road games except USC.

 

[BabyIrish]

Here is an article by Driskell on our path:
https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-breaking-down-ny6-path/

"WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Of course there are a lot of different scenarios that could happen, but here is what needs to happen for Notre Dame among the most realistic options that could open up a NY6 bid for the Irish.

1. Notre Dame must dominate both Boston College and Stanford.

2. Oregon drops a regular season game and Utah wins the Pac 12 title.

3. Georgia loses to Texas A&M this weekend and LSU wins the SEC title.

4. Alabama beats Auburn.

5. Ohio State destroys Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. (Indiana beating Michigan this weekend would be icing on the cake)

6. Wisconsin beats Minnesota and gets dominated by Ohio State.

7. Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State but beats Baylor in the Big 12 title game, or Baylor loses to Texas this weekend and beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game."

 

[IrishLax]

Or just one crazy upset of Florida State over Florida probably does the trick.

 

[ulukinatme]

Here is an article by Driskell on our path:
https://www.si.com/college/notredame/football/notre-dame-football-breaking-down-ny6-path/

"WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN

Of course there are a lot of different scenarios that could happen, but here is what needs to happen for Notre Dame among the most realistic options that could open up a NY6 bid for the Irish.

1. Notre Dame must dominate both Boston College and Stanford.

2. Oregon drops a regular season game and Utah wins the Pac 12 title.

3. Georgia loses to Texas A&M this weekend and LSU wins the SEC title.

4. Alabama beats Auburn.

5. Ohio State destroys Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. (Indiana beating Michigan this weekend would be icing on the cake)

6. Wisconsin beats Minnesota and gets dominated by Ohio State.

7. Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State but beats Baylor in the Big 12 title game, or Baylor loses to Texas this weekend and beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game."

#1 is possible, but I'll believe Stanford when I see it. Seems highly impossible #2 occurs. I also don't think Georgia loses to A&M in #3, but LSU should win. Alabama probably still beats Auburn for #4. #5 and #6 are probably rock solid givens, but #7 seems like a stretch again.

I think we're better off staying out of the NY6 this year, on the other hand it feels like the offense has turned a corner and is somewhat healthy (OL aside) for the first time all year. Maybe Book and company faces an LSU-lite team like the end of the 2017 season and gets some strong momentum heading into 2020. I'd be okay with that.

 

[KizerWilhelm]

2. Oregon drops a regular season game and Utah wins the Pac 12 title.

That seems like overthinking things. If Utah and ND are both two-loss teams, I think ND would get the benefit of the doubt based on how weak their schedule is, and the fact that they lost to USC.

Or just one crazy upset of Florida State over Florida probably does the trick.

And honestly, I don't think 6-win FSU beating 9-win UF is nearly as crazy an upset as everyone seems to think. Yes, they're bad. Bad not much worse than the Miami/Kentucky/SCAR teams UF struggled with.

3. Georgia loses to Texas A&M this weekend and LSU wins the SEC title.

The other option here is Georgia beats LSU for the SEC title, and they're both in.

6. Wisconsin beats Minnesota and gets dominated by Ohio State.

7. Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State but beats Baylor in the Big 12 title game, or Baylor loses to Texas this weekend and beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game.

Again, overthinking things. I think we'd get the benefit of the doubt over two-loss Minnesota OR three-loss Wisconsin (making the result of that game largely irrelevant), and two-loss Baylor.

 

[Irishize]

Man, there are some overrated teams out there this late in the season:

TAMU is getting by on SEC bias
UF is the same although they’re better than TAMU
PSU appeared overrated to me when I watched them struggle to put away scUM.
UGA is very good but does anyone think they can win out? I sure as hell don’t.
Utah is good but are they one of the four best? Who have they beaten?

 

[stlnd01]

There is one conference where the champion is basically guaranteed a spot in the CFP. How is their OOC scheduling?

No better/worse than anyone else’s. (Or maybe both better AND worse?)
LSU played Texas.
Auburn played Oregon.
Georgia played us.
Florida plays FSU and Miami.
A&M played Clemson
Bama got off light this year with Duke but they usually play someone legit to open the season. FSU last year (I realize FSU sucked last year but that’s not Bama’s fault).

Yes, they also feast on FCS cupcakes, and time them well, and in some cases rarely leave the South but instead schedule neutral site games in Atlanta or Dallas.
But the contenders in the SEC do make sure to notch those marquee wins.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

No better/worse than anyone else’s. (Or maybe both better AND worse?)
LSU played Texas.
Auburn played Oregon.
Georgia played us.
Florida plays FSU and Miami.
A&M played Clemson
Bama got off light this year with Duke but they usually play someone legit to open the season. FSU last year (I realize FSU sucked last year but that’s not Bama’s fault).

Yes, they also feast on FCS cupcakes, and time them well, and in some cases rarely leave the South but instead schedule neutral site games in Atlanta or Dallas.
But the contenders in the SEC do make sure to notch those marquee wins.

But they also only play 8 conference games. Last year the SEC was the only P5 conference to have, in the aggregate, more OOC games against FCS teams than P5 teams.

 

[RDU Irish]

After an utter bitch slapping in Ann Arbor (that dirty whore) we have no gripes about whatever bowl we secure. Finish 11-2 and build for next year. IMO we are a solid #10-#15 type crew just lacking enough elite talent to push much higher than that.

Lots of football to be played with a lot of good teams finishing with 3 losses. We should stay ahead of all 3 loss teams and maybe middle of the pack for 2 loss teams. Gotta beat some better teams before we can earn much more than that.

 

[NDRock]

Yeah, but ND has been routinely screwed on "objective" measures in the past when they've been in ND's favor. I can't remember how many times ND has had a harder strength of schedule than the comparable team and all you hear on ESPN is "eye test."

I don't think ND should be ranked higher than Florida, but I do think the current rankings are a bit of a joke. Seems to be a LOT of bias to ensure a PAC12 team doesn't get left out of the playoffs again. There was an experiment done the other day where all of the CFB experts (i.e. the guys who come up with the advanced stats, etc.) sat down and did a mock playoff committee. The result was Florida at #12 and Notre Dame at #14. Utah was #10. Utah has ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS being ranked 7th with a loss to mediocre USC and **ZERO** quality wins. Their ranking is completely incongruent with teams like Minnesota and Baylor who also have a loss and have played a soft schedule.

Long story short -- there is a ton of bias this year. Thank god ND is not truly in the hunt, because I'm concerned that even at 12-0 ND might've gotten screwed this year. There needs to be an 8 team playoff with 5 AQs (conference champsl) + a condition where a top 10 G5 team gets an AQ + 2-3 at-large spots. Having a 4 team playoff with 5 power conferences just causes and absolute shitton of politicking.

That's where I'm at. I also want to see some of the playoff games to be on site. Would love to see how a southern team does in December when they have to travel to Ohio, Indiana or some place similar. I'm hoping the weather is very cold come next November 7th.

 

[RDU Irish]

I will give the SEC credit for LSU, Bama and UGA. UF and Auburn are really not that good though. Top 25ish but no business in the top 10. If they all get credit for losing to UGA then so should we. That atmosphere was 2x what it is for any other SEC game all year.

 

[NDRock]

After an utter bitch slapping in Ann Arbor (that dirty whore) we have no gripes about whatever bowl we secure. Finish 11-2 and build for next year. IMO we are a solid #10-#15 type crew just lacking enough elite talent to push much higher than that.

Lots of football to be played with a lot of good teams finishing with 3 losses. We should stay ahead of all 3 loss teams and maybe middle of the pack for 2 loss teams. Gotta beat some better teams before we can earn much more than that.

Yep, and exactly the level we recruit to. Crazy how that works.

 

[RDU Irish]

That's where I'm at. I also want to see some of the playoff games to be on site. Would love to see how a southern team does in December when they have to travel to Ohio, Indiana or some place similar. I'm hoping the weather is very cold come next November 7th.

Dead on - reward those fan bases. Reward those Bama season ticket holders who had to pay and not show up for two or three FCS games to get to pound on Utah in December. Never will happen - too much shared money involved. But if you go to an 8 team playoff - those top 4 teams deserve an advantage, IMO, and this is a good one.

 

[RDU Irish]

Yep, and exactly the level we recruit to. Crazy how that works.

If Book were more Baker Mayfield and less Ian Book we could make a leap. Would have beaten UGA and then only have a WTF no-show loss to UM. Would greatly change the conversation this year. You can win big with that talent level with proper roster management (pretty close to there now) but you have to develop difference making QBs instead of making them scared of their shadow.

 

[ACamp1900]

Well, they have played 3 games, but have won one of them.

I think out bottom 4 wins are better than their bottom four, but they clearly have the best win overall and their worst loss is a 14 point game to the #1 team in the country. UGA loss is a wash between the two.

So, yea, I think they deserve to be ahead.

My point has nothing really to do with where they are or how it sits in relation to ND... My point is they are another prime example of a shit schedule taking a pretty average team in the SEC and making them look top ten... they are not anywhere near a top ten team imo but when over half your schedule is a guaranteed win then hey...

 

[Luckylucci]

But they also only play 8 conference games. Last year the SEC was the only P5 conference to have, in the aggregate, more OOC games against FCS teams than P5 teams.

It's amazing to me that so many people gloss over this.

 

[RDU Irish]

When an entire conference has to play the #1 team for the last decade it kind of boosts everyone's SoS ranking. Then when nobody beats said #1 team... why does it matter if you play good teams if you never beat them again?

 

[ACamp1900]

When an entire conference has to play the #1 team for the last decade it kind of boosts everyone's SoS ranking. Then when nobody beats said #1 team... why does it matter if you play good teams if you never beat them again?

How many times has UGA played Bama in the last decade in terms of SOS??? Twice?? I mean these are the two kings of the conference and they've been on each other's schedule (in the same conference) I believe twice in ten years......... think about how that helps the whole narrative long term.

 

[zelezo vlk]

So who's the SEC team that will make the ACC?

 

[Blazers46]

Orange bowl, Champs Sports Bowl, Hooters Bowl...

I was at one of those ND spring brunches years ago and I asked a player “why Notre Dame?”

He said he liked the way they looked in the Sun Bowl against Miami. He thought ND was on the rise.

I thought from then on I don’t care what bowl ND goes to, just friggin win.

 

[condoms SUCk]

I may be wrong on this, I thought there was a clause where a top 10 ND team gets an automatic NY6 bowl? Not sure we'll get there this year anyway but for some reason I though this was the case. Maybe it was something that was under the old BCS system, idk.
I'm not expecting us to be in a top tier bowl so lets hit up Orlando, enjoy the sun and finish 11-2. I just hope the 2020 team (players and coaches alike) remember this years lesson, there are repercussions for "no-show" games.