BCS Rankings: 2012

[ACamp1900]

"TheExperts" on espn just noted that Notre Dame hasn't been to the BCS in a decade.......................

 

[ab2cmiller]

Oregon's defense is absolutely decimated with injuries. Even if they survive against Stanford, most teams probably don't get healthier after playing the trees. I think the chances of Oregon losing one of their last three is actually quite good.

It also appears that Kstate could also have some injuries to some key players (Lockett and Zimmerman) that could keep them out. Lockett is their main deep threat and can really stretch the field keeping defenses honest. He's also one of the top kickoff/punt returners in the nation and is key to having the best starting field position in the nation. Lockett's backup is also potentially out. Kstate is expected to remain tight lipped, but most of the fans on the Kstate message board don't think either will play.

 

[ACamp1900]

They also keep fumbling which conference champ goes to which bowl..."experts"?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I need a break from all this, it's making my head spin. Hopefully K-State or even better Oregon dump on Saturday, so we can at least not feel completely helpless like I do now.........

 

[GoldenIsThyFame]

‏@KegsnEggs
Via @predictmachine, the chances of the top 3 finishing undefeated: Kansas State 72%, Notre Dame 61%, Oregon 59%

 

[PraetorianND]

‏@KegsnEggs
Via @predictmachine, the chances of the top 3 finishing undefeated: Kansas State 72%, Notre Dame 61%, Oregon 59%

I see it more like:

ND 72%
KState 61%
Oregon 50%

 

[Whiskeyjack]

‏@KegsnEggs
Via @predictmachine, the chances of the top 3 finishing undefeated: Kansas State 72%, Notre Dame 61%, Oregon 59%

Chances of all three finishing undefeated: 26%.

 

[PraetorianND]

Chances of all three finishing undefeated: 26%.

How about the chances of KSU and UO finishing undefeated? 42.48%?

 

[Martibhoy]

Feck it, let the chips fall where they may. We will still be in the National Championship!!!

I said it in Dublin

 

[phork]

NCAA Bowl Predictions

 

[Seanthornton]

In my opinion, I think we will be overlooked. My prediction is we play Nebraska in the Rose Bowl. Everything that is being said about ND by the experts ... we will not get the love we deserve.












KEEP THE FAITH !!!!

GO !!! IRISH !!! GO !!!

 

[IrishLax]

‏@KegsnEggs
Via @predictmachine, the chances of the top 3 finishing undefeated: Kansas State 72%, Notre Dame 61%, Oregon 59%

That's really stupid consider Vegas puts the odds of KSU losing THIS WEEK to Baylor at 22%... more realistic odds are probably something like:

Kansas State = 52% (giving them 67% odds against Texas)
Notre Dame = 56% (giving us 60% odds against USC)
Oregon = 74% (giving them 90% odds against Oregon State and either USC or UCLA considering they're getting nearly 92% odds against Stanford)

Odds of everyone going undefeated: somewhere around ~20%

 

[Seanthornton]

Anyone have a link to Mike Golic this morning talking about ND he made some great points:

Some of them:
In the last 11 years, only seven FBS defenses have allowed fewer points per game than the Irish are currently allowing.

Of the 10 defenses #NotreDame offense has faced this year, 5 ranked in top 20 at time of game



Mike Greenberg‏@Espngreeny

Golic is hopelessly biased, but he's right. Numbers say #ND should be number one. If they get left out, it will be completely unfair.

Yes !! he was on fire this morning !! good to hear him sound off !!






KEEP THE FAITH !!!!


GO !!! IRISH !!! GO !!!

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Kansas State's schedule:

FCS Missouri State (3-7, 3-4 MVC)

Miami (5-5, 4-3 ACC)

North Texas (4-6, 3-3 Sun Belt)

@Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1 Big 12)

Kansas (1-9, 0-7 Big 12)

@Iowa State (5-5, 2-5 Big 12)

@West Virginia (5-4, 2-4 Big 12)

Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3 Big 12)

Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2 Big 12)

@TCU (6-4, 3-4 Big 12)
_____________________________

@Baylor (4-5, 1-5 Big 12)

Texas (8-2, 5-2 Big 12)


Opponents' Composite Record: 49-44
Big 12 Opponents' Composite Record: 37-30
Big 12 Opponents' Composite Conference Record: 20-26

If they beat Baylor:
Opponents' Composite Record: 53-50
Big 12 Opponents' Composite Record: 41-36
Big 12 Opponents' Composite Conference Record: 21-31

Wins over BCS-Ranked Opponents:
#12 Oklahoma
#24 Oklahoma State
#25 Texas Tech

OSU and TT play each other on Saturday, so one will drop out. Okie State then plays Oklahoma the next week (11/24). Texas Tech's last game is against Baylor. If OSU beats Tech, then Oklahoma wins Bedlam... that will leave only Oklahoma as a ranked victory for Kansas State heading into the Dec. 1 showdown with Texas (ND will be done by then).

Just look at that schedule. I know some of our opponents have flamed out and/or not been as good as advertised. But come on, guys. What is so impressive about that schedule? We topped their win over OU, and the shared victories over Miami are basically even. Why is no one talking about this?

Maddening, to say the least.

 

[peoriairish]

What could really help us in the SOS is a Michigan win over OSU at the end of the season. Anything is possible in this game and I can just hope Denard is back in the saddle for it.

 

[PraetorianND]

What could really help us in the SOS is a Michigan win over OSU at the end of the season. Anything is possible in this game and I can just hope Denard is back in the saddle for it.

It won't matter. The stuff that has happened in the past is gone in terms of voting. It doesn't matter anymore or we'd already be ranked higher.

KSU or UO have to lose or we're out.

 

[ab2cmiller]

As far as the BCS rankings, I will not be doing any rooting for or against certain teams in hopes of boosting our SOS and lowering KSU or OU's SOS. I could be wrong, but I don't think we could see enough movement in the BCS calc to help us jump either of those two teams. The only hope is that one of them lose.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

As far as the BCS rankings, I will not be doing any rooting for or against certain teams in hopes of boosting our SOS and lowering KSU or OU's SOS. I could be wrong, but I don't think we could see enough movement in the BCS calc to help us jump either of those two teams. The only hope is that one of them lose.

To put it bluntly, you are wrong.

1. Kansas State .9674
2. Oregon .9497 (-.0177)
3. Notre Dame .9396 (-.0278)

For reference:

4. Alabama .8534 (-.1140)
5. Georgia .8328 (-.1346)
6. Florida .7955 (-.1679)

The difference between the top three is miniscule. Alabama has more than 4x as big a gap from #1 as the Irish. We are getting jobbed in the human polls. Every single vote counts, especially since if Oregon keeps winning against their tough remaining schedule, it will take points away from K-State (and ND in the computers, of course... but not at all in the human polls because NO ONE has us ahead of Oregon except Brian Kelly).

I'm not fully aware of how those decimals are calculated, but from a post Lax made the other day I think the fact that coaches and some Harris voters are placing us 4th and 5th is hurting us a lot more than anyone thinks.

This is also why I disagree with the "style points don't matter" crowd. We are so close to cracking that top two. If huge wins over Pitt, BC (and Wake) could have earned us just a few more points in the human polls, it would matter.

If someone can explain exactly how the averages work for the Harris and Coaches polls, I would be glad to do some number-crunching and see what it would take for us to jump into the top two.

EDIT: A team's score in the Harris poll will be divided by 2,875, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 115 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 2,875 / 2,875 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 115 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

A team's score in the USA Today poll will be divided by 1,475, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 59 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 1,475 / 1,475 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 59 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

Those people voting us all the way down at #4 and #5 (and I've even heard #6) are doing this to keep us out of the top 2. We are talking slim margins here.

Coaches Poll:
1. Oregon 1460 (.98983)
2. Kansas State 1427 (.96746)
3. Notre Dame 1346 (.91254)

Harris Poll:
1. Oregon 2844 (.98922)
2. Kansas State 2774 (.96487)
3. Notre Dame 2634 (.91617)

Note that Alabama is still getting a #1 vote in the Harris Poll. This is the bias we are up against.

For those of you don't like numbers, look at it this way. We are .05492 behind K-State in the Coaches, and .0487 behind K-State in the Harris. In the overall BCS Rankings, we are ONLY .0278 behind K-State!!!

 

[ab2cmiller]

To put it bluntly, you are wrong.

1. Kansas State .9674
2. Oregon .9497 (-.0177)
3. Notre Dame .9396 (-.0278)

For reference:

4. Alabama .8534 (-.1140)
5. Georgia .8328 (-.1346)
6. Florida .7955 (-.1679)

The difference between the top three is miniscule. Alabama has more than 4x as big a gap from #1 as the Irish. We are getting jobbed in the human polls. Every single vote counts, especially since if Oregon keeps winning against their tough remaining schedule, it will take points away from K-State (and ND in the computers, of course... but not at all in the human polls because NO ONE has us ahead of Oregon except Brian Kelly).

I'm not fully aware of how those decimals are calculated, but from a post Lax made the other day I think the fact that coaches and some Harris voters are placing us 4th and 5th is hurting us a lot more than anyone thinks.

This is also why I disagree with the "style points don't matter" crowd. We are so close to cracking that top two. If huge wins over Pitt, BC (and Wake) could have earned us just a few more points in the human polls, it would matter.

If someone can explain exactly how the averages work for the Harris and Coaches polls, I would be glad to do some number-crunching and see what it would take for us to jump into the top two.

EDIT: A team's score in the Harris poll will be divided by 2,875, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 115 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 2,875 / 2,875 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 115 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

II. Coaches Poll (1/3rd)
A team's score in the USA Today poll will be divided by 1,475, which is the maximum number of points any team can receive if all 59 voting members rank the same team as Number 1. Example: 1,475 / 1,475 = 1.0. If a team receives a total of 59 voting points, an average of 25th place, their BCS quotient of this component would be .04. (1.0 / 25 = 0.04).

Those people voting us all the way down at #4 and #5 (and I've even heard #6) are doing this to keep us out of the top 2. We are talking slim margins here.

LOL

I realize that the gap between us and the top two is a lot smaller then those behind us. But we are already number 1 in the computer polls. I stick with my original assumption that we can't gain enough in the computer polls to pass the top 2. If you can show me that it's possible to pass the top two based upon gains in computer polls in which we are already number 1 then I'm willing to listen.

Your thoughts about the human polls were spot on. If you wanted to argue that spreading the gap in our SOS compared to the other two would convince some human voters to change their votes, then I'm willing to listen. I'm skeptical that there are not enough human voters that are willing to listen to that argument.

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

ab2c, the only poll that matters in the final one. If we can slowly gain a few points here and there in the human polls, we can overtake K-State. I have no idea how the computer polls work, but just saying "We are already #1 in the computer" is too simple of a statement (especially since K-State is #1 in 2/6 computers). Like I said, we are talking tiny decimals here. If our opponents keep winning and K-State's opponents keep losing, that helps. If we can finish the season undefeated and gain a few points from human voters in each poll, that helps. It's not impossible. It's not as simple as saying, "Well we aren't #1 right now so we never will be."

 

[PraetorianND]

ab2c, the only poll that matters in the final one. If we can slowly gain a few points here and there in the human polls, we can overtake K-State. I have no idea how the computer polls work, but just saying "We are already #1 in the computer" is too simple of a statement (especially since K-State is #1 in 2/6 computers). Like I said, we are talking tiny decimals here. If our opponents keep winning and K-State's opponents keep losing, that helps. If we can finish the season undefeated and gain a few points from human voters in each poll, that helps. It's not impossible. It's not as simple as saying, "Well we aren't #1 right now so we never will be."

Seems logical. I wonder what we'd have to do to WF and USC to sway any human voters. I think it would have to be something like.....

 

[Whiskeyjack]

This is also why I disagree with the "style points don't matter" crowd. We are so close to cracking that top two. If huge wins over Pitt, BC (and Wake) could have earned us just a few more points in the human polls, it would matter.

The "style points don't matter" argument, at least as it pertains to our current situation, is as follows:

1. Since ND is currently ranked 1st, we can only lose ground in the computer rankings. UO and/or KSU will probably pass us as their SoS catches up with ours;
2. Historically, voters have been very reluctant to jump an undefeated major conference team over another without a loss. Since the pollsters didn't rank us ahead of KSU after we stomped OU, there's very little chance they would have done so after blow-outs over Pitt or BC. It's no coincidence that the UO > KSU > ND hierarchy mirrors their order in the preseason rankings as well.

It looks like we're close enough to jump KSU with a couple big wins, but we're really not. The voters aren't going to move us up unless UO or KSU loses.

 

[ClausentoTate]

We need to be more impressive in a win over USC than KSU is over Texas. We need to show up big in the coliseum. Tons of people will be watching and they can very easily swing a few votes our way if we shut down their WRs.

I have a feeling Baylor might do better than people think this weekend. Their offense is legit.

 

[ND NYC]

just throwing this out there;

does anyone think if we didnt have the nbc contract, and espn had a deal to broadcast our games that we would be ranked #1 or #2 right now?

my hunch is we would be #1 or #2 which begs the question has this nbc deal been more trouble than its worth? i for one have no use for pretty much every announcer the have had doing the games since we signed on with nbc and every damn game is on tv right now. have we ever "opened up" the bidding for our games to espn? cbs? fox? or did the eversol connection pretty much make it an autorenewal every yr?

independence: yes!
keeping nbc deal: i could care less

 

[brandonnash]

I think NBC's HD feed of football in general looks horrible compared to the rest. I have checked thru cable, taken cable out of the loop and went old school antenna and it still looked bad. I am all for someone else picking it up.

 

[ARALOU]

I do not want to go ESPN for Irish football every week. While I agree that it "might" curtail some of the negativity. I had rather listen to it on the radio. I am telling you, the time will come when ESPN controls it all and charges a premium for watching.

 

[DillonHall]

just throwing this out there;

does anyone think if we didnt have the nbc contract, and espn had a deal to broadcast our games that we would be ranked #1 or #2 right now?

my hunch is we would be #1 or #2 which begs the question has this nbc deal been more trouble than its worth? i for one have no use for pretty much every announcer the have had doing the games since we signed on with nbc and every damn game is on tv right now. have we ever "opened up" the bidding for our games to espn? cbs? fox? or did the eversol connection pretty much make it an autorenewal every yr?

independence: yes!
keeping nbc deal: i could care less

I don't understand this

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

The "style points don't matter" argument, at least as it pertains to our current situation, is as follows:

1. Since ND is currently ranked 1st, we can only lose ground in the computer rankings. UO and/or KSU will probably pass us as their SoS catches up with ours;
2. Historically, voters have been very reluctant to jump an undefeated major conference team over another without a loss. Since the pollsters didn't rank us ahead of KSU after we stomped OU, there's very little chance they would have done so after blow-outs over Pitt or BC. It's no coincidence that the UO > KSU > ND hierarchy mirrors their order in the preseason rankings as well.

It looks like we're close enough to jump KSU with a couple big wins, but we're really not. The voters aren't going to move us up unless UO or KSU loses.

The reason I disagree with that is we didn't give any voters a reason to reconsider their rankings. We simply validated the notion that ND is by overrated under-performing against two inferior opponents in the business end of the season (plus Purdue early, and BYU as well).

K-State were not that impressive against TCU. We had a chance to plant a seed in voters' minds with a dominant win against BC. We failed to take the opportunity. Regardless, most of the damage was done against Pitt. If we had followed up the big win in Norman with two outstanding performances, people would be talking about us as a dominant team who can compete with anyone, and who will blow out inferior opponents. Instead, we've given the haters/doubters fuel to talk us down and -- most importantly -- vote us down.

I'm not going to get into an argument with you over this, since you continue to be so adamant over the "style point" argument. And that's fine. I respect your opinion. But this is how I view it:

There is no downside to blowing people out. It can only help you. The only upside to squeaking by lesser opponents is the W on the board. When you are being compared to other teams who also only have W's, everything is subjective and open to interpretation. K-State have hardly been challenged except against Oklahoma and Iowa State. We have been challenged multiple times against weak teams. If you don't think that factors into the perception of the two teams, then I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[PraetorianND]

It's so refreshing watching college hoops. If these kids play well they get to dance. If they don't make the tourney they can only blame themselves (for the most part).

 

[Rocky2820]

Chances of all three finishing undefeated: 26%.

Wasn't it like 2.9% or so two weeks ago, and something like 7.6% going into last week? Point is that while it's still only about a 1 in 4 chance, the odds have gone up considerably the past couple weeks.