BCS Rankings: 2012

[timm3117]

At this point I'm not entirely sure what the argument is that K-State is better than us. They scored a bunch of points against Texas Tech and West Virginia? Is that all?
I can see 'Bama and Oregon. But I'm not sure how we're not #3 at this point.

There is a great chance we will be 3 tomorrow. The computers hate Oregon since they have played nobody! I'd be surprised if we don't pass them.

 

[PraetorianND]

1. Bama
2. ND

 

[IrishLax]

Would be shocked if we're not at least #3... and I personally think we should be ranked above Kansas State and #2. We've played a much tougher slate of games and our win against Oklahoma was far more impressive than their win.

 

[ulukinatme]

#4 Oregon has played one of the toughest high school schedules in the country.

Truer words haven't been spoken.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

#4 Oregon has played one of the toughest high school schedules in the country.

Their schedule has definitely been soft thus far, but I'd honestly rather play 'Bama than Oregon. Their offensive is f*cking terrifying.

 

[PraetorianND]

Their schedule has definitely been soft thus far, but I'd honestly rather play 'Bama than Oregon. Their offensive is f*cking terrifying.

I agree completely. I have only watched a little bit of Oregon but what I did watch I couldn't believe. Their efficiency is outrageous. D Thomas is a freak athlete.

 

[ulukinatme]

Their schedule has definitely been soft thus far, but I'd honestly rather play 'Bama than Oregon. Their offensive is f*cking terrifying.

I agree that I'd rather take Bama than Oregon in a championship...but people said the same thing about us not being able to hold back OU's and Miami's offenses and I think we did a decent job of bottling up both. That doesn't necessarily mean we'd hold Oregon back as well, but I do agree that I like our chances against stopping Alabama's offense rather than stopping Oregon's. On the flip side...it would be some hard fought points to score on Bama.

 

[BGIF]

BSC 10/21 Rankings with 10/27 Results

BSC 10/21 Rankings with 10/27 Results

The down arrow indicates the losers this week.

RK	TEAM	10/21	10/28	
1	ALA	7-0	8-0	Won #11 MSS 38-7
2	UF	7-0	7-1 ↓	Lost UGA 17-9
3	KSU	7-0	8-0	Won TT 55-24
4	ORE	7-0	8-0	Won CU 70-14
5	ND	7-0	8-0	Won #8OU 30-13
6	LSU	7-1	7-1	BYE
7	ORS	6-0	6-1 ↓	Lost UW 20-17
8	OU	5-1	5-2 ↓	Lost #5 ND 30-13
9	USC	6-1	6-2 ↓	Lost AZ 39-36
10	UGA	6-1	7-1 	Won UF 17-9
11	MSS	7-0	6-1 ↓	Lost#1 ALA 38-7
12	FSU	7-1	8-1	Won Duk 48-7
13	SCA	6-2	7-2	Won UTN 38-35
14	TT	6-1	6-2 ↓	Lost KSU 55-24
15	RU	7-0	7-1 ↓	Lost Kent 35-23
16	UL	7-0	8-0	Won UC 34-31 OT
17	SU	5-2	6-2	Won WSU 24-17
18	CL	6-1	7-1	Won WF 42-13
19	WVU	5-2	5-2	BYE
20	A&M	5-2	6-2	Won AUB 63-21
21	BSU	6-1	7-1	Won WY 45-14
22	UM	5-2	5-3	Lost NEB 23-9
23	UTX	5-2	6-2	Won KU 21-17
24	OH	7-0	7-1 ↓	Lost MOH 23-20
25	WIS	6-2	6-3 ↓	Lost MSU 16-13

 

[Whiskeyjack]

We've gotta be #2 now. Oregon torching the worst FBS team in the nation isn't going to improve their stock at all, and we topped the best win on KSU's resume convincingly.

 

[Black Irish]

ND certainly jumps 1 spot due to Florida's loss. Maybe they jump 2 spots if the BCS isn't that impressed with Oregon's NES Tecmo Bowl numbers against a 1 win team. It's hard to see the Irish going to number 2 no matter how this win versus OU may make them NC game legit. We'll see.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Notre Dame
Navy (5-3)
Purdue (3-4)
Michigan State (5-4)
Michigan (5-3)
Miami (4-4)
Stanford (6-2) (ranked)
BYU (5-4)
Oklahoma (5-2) (ranked)

Kansas State
Missouri State (n/a)
Miami (4-4)
North Texas (3-5)
Oklahoma (5-2) (ranked)
Kansas (1-7)
Iowa State (5-3)
West Virginia (5-2) (ranked)
Texas Tech (6-2) (likely ranked)

Oregon
Arkansas State (n/a)
Fresno State (6-3)
Tennessee Tech (n/a)
Arizona (5-3) (likely ranked)
Washington State (2-6)
Washington (4-4)
Arizona State (5-3)
Colorado (1-7)

It's tough to make a case for Oregon to be ahead of Kansas State or Notre Dame.

For ND/KSU it's comparing Michigan/Stanford to Texas Tech/West Virginia. I think you give the nod to Bill Snyder's crew for now.

 

[PraetorianND]

We've gotta be #2 now. Oregon torching the worst FBS team in the nation isn't going to improve their stock at all, and we topped the best win on KSU's resume convincingly.

Yep, we should be #2. Not to mention the haters can't hate anymore. The human polls should reflect that.

 

[PraetorianND]

Notre Dame
Navy (5-3)
Purdue (3-4)
Michigan State (5-4)
Michigan (5-3)
Miami (4-4)
Stanford (6-2) (ranked)
BYU (5-4)
Oklahoma (5-2) (ranked)

Kansas State
Missouri State (n/a)
Miami (4-4)
North Texas (3-5)
Oklahoma (5-2) (ranked)
Kansas (1-7)
Iowa State (5-3)
West Virginia (5-2) (ranked)
Texas Tech (6-2) (likely ranked)

Oregon
Arkansas State (n/a)
Fresno State (6-3)
Tennessee Tech (n/a)
Arizona (5-3) (likely ranked)
Washington State (2-6)
Washington (4-4)
Arizona State (5-3)
Colorado (1-7)

It's tough to make a case for Oregon to be ahead of Kansas State or Notre Dame.

For ND/KSU it's comparing Michigan/Stanford to Texas Tech/West Virginia. I think you give the nod to Bill Snyder's crew for now.

The way we beat OU is the difference.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

For ND/KSU it's comparing Michigan/Stanford to Texas Tech/West Virginia. I think you give the nod to Bill Snyder's crew for now.

Except that the best win on both ND's and KSU's resume is over the same team, and ND's win was much more convincing.

 

[KPENN]

"@JBradEdwards: My BCS projection: 1. Bama 2. KSU 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. LSU"

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

It's tough to make a case for Oregon to be ahead of Kansas State or Notre Dame.

For ND/KSU it's comparing Michigan/Stanford to Texas Tech/West Virginia. I think you give the nod to Bill Snyder's crew for now.

West Virginia sucks though. Big 12 is going down. We win at USC & we are in.

 

[BGIF]

Sagarin Ranks ND #2 in BCS ...

Sagarin Ranks ND #2 in BCS ...

behind KSU by about 2.5 pts in his Elo Chess Model which does not include Margin of Victory as required by the BCS so ND gets no extra credit for beating OU by 17 while KSU only beat them by 6.

USA TODAY

Sagarin's BCS rankings are:

1 KSU
2 ND
3 UF
4 LSU
5 OU
6 UGA
7 ALA
8 ORE
9 SCA
10 TT
11 OSU
12 ORSt
13 SU
14 WVU
15 AZ
16 A&M
17 UTX
18 UW
19 USC
20 NEB
21 ISU
22 MSSt
23 OKSt
24 UM
25 UL

 

[ThePiombino]

behind KSU by about 2.5 pts in his Elo Chess Model which does not include Margin of Victory as required by the BCS so ND gets no extra credit for beating OU by 17 while KSU only beat them by 6.

USA TODAY

Sagarin's BCS rankings are:

1 KSU
2 ND
3 UF
4 LSU
5 OU
6 UGA
7 ALA
8 ORE
9 SCA
10 TT
11 OSU
12 ORSt
13 SU
14 WVU
15 AZ
16 A&M
17 UTX
18 UW
19 USC
20 NEB
21 ISU
22 MSSt
23 OKSt
24 UM
25 UL

I would love to put all my faith in this model, but with Alabama at #7...

 

[BGIF]

I would love to put all my faith in this model, but with Alabama at #7...

Sagarin doesn't have any faith in it. He's lamented about it since the BCS took out MOV because some teams were running up 77-0 scores week after week against the Div 1aa cupcakes and Directional Schools. But he can't make further changes to it because of the terms of his contract with BCS

Sagarin's Predictor, the one of the far right is the one he claims is the most accurate. By the ELO Chess Model (the BCS no MOV) ND would be a 2.5 pt underdog to KSU but by the Predictor ND becomes a 1 pt favorite.

Check out WVU and ALA to see a huge disparity. WVU is rated 13 pts tougher under ELO Chess (BCS) than under the Predictor. Alabama on the other hand is rated 10 pts easier under ELO Chess than they are under the more accurate Predicator.

For BCS ranking (ELO Chess) ALA would only have a 3.7 point differential over WVU. But the spread for an actual game if they met on a neutral field under Predictor makes ALA the favorite by about 27 pts.

A similar disparity also exists in the human voters. Oregon put up 70 points over hapless Colorado but but Oregon didn't score after the 3rd Q. How do the voters interpret that? ND beat OU by 17 where KSU only won by 6. Does a voter give ND a higher vote placement because of the MOV? The same MOV that the computers aren't allowed to consider. Or does a voter who saw the game say, "The game was over with the last FG. Riddick's TD in the last few minutes was a garbage score so ND and KSU beat OSU by about the same score?" It was garbage time but Riddick made some pretty moves on his 15 yd TD run through the middle of the OU DLine. KSU's margin of victory was actually a ball dropped by Landry that bounced into the OU end zone and a KSU defender dove on for a TD. Without those 7 points KSU loses. How many voters actually saw the game and know that or even read a play by play account or recap? How many just looked at the raw scores when filling out their card? It's a bizarre way to pick the "two best teams".

 

[ohara831]

My guess is we are #3, behind Bama and KSU. Think we jump Oregon.

 

[ickythump1225]

I'd love for us to jump KSU but I just don't see it. In fact I'm starting to get a little nervous that we'll be shut out of the NCG if Alabama, KSU and us are all undefeated.

 

[Fbolt]

I'd love for us to jump KSU but I just don't see it. In fact I'm starting to get a little nervous that we'll be shut out of the NCG if Alabama, KSU and us are all undefeated.

Long way to go until then.

Great discussion in this thread-thx all.

 

[In Lou I Trust]

I have no idea how Bama is still #1. They'll stay there til they lose even though they've played a pathetic schedule. Their case was just helped by beating Miss. St.... a team who had no right being ranked #11.

 

[BGIF]

Jerry Palm Projects ND 3rd Behind KSU

Jerry Palm Projects ND 3rd Behind KSU

NCAA College Football Rankings - CBSSports.com

His projections have KSU and ND tying for top ranking in the computer polls but Harris and the Coaches both placing ALA First, ORE Second, KSU Third, and ND Fourth. Combining the computers and polls he predicts will have:

1 ALA
2 KSU
3 ND
4 ORE

Keep in mind this is his projection of how the actual voting/computers will shake out today.

 

[GDomer09]

I Don't know if I've said it on here before, but me and my brothers talk about this all the time.

Looking back at the beginning of the year which scenario seemed more unlikely.

Notre Dame 8-0?

or

Notre Dame 8-0 and not #1?

I still can't believe the lack of credit we got last week and the week before in the rankings. I can't imagine us not being #2 right now. I have no doubt we are a better team than KSU!

 

[peoriairish]

I think we get some first place votes this week.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but does anyone think we can leap KSU this week?

Not a dumb question, look at the schedules. They compare well.

K State ND
@OK 24-19 @OK 30-13
Same opponent, same atmosphere. We look better here.
vs. Miami 52-13 vs. Miami 41-3
They had Miami at home, we, at a home based neutral field. Still look better.
@13 WVa 55-14 @ 10 MSU 20-3
ND looks better, both road games. MSU ranked higher. WVa had a weak schedule.
vs. 14 TTech 55-24 vs. 17 Stanford 20-13
Toss up. Maybe leaning towards KState
@ IowaST 27-21 vs. 18 UM 20-3
Obviously our win is better here.
vs. Kansas 56-16 vs. BYU 17-14
BYU is the tougher opponent here, by far.
vs. N Texas 35-21 vs. Purdue 20-17
I think this is the first year N Texas is in the FBS...
vs. Missouri St. 51-9 vs. Navy 50-10
Yeah, Missouri St. shouldn't even count.

Looking at it... We look better. Looking at the last four games, 3 out of the 4, their opponents look better (assuming we both win out.) They do have the Big12 championship game though. Based on what we've seen, I think we should be ranked ahead of them for now. Maybe not down the road.

Wow, forgot to click the "view first unread." My bad, not deleting it though.

 

[ARALOU]

Nice work. Very interesting. North Texas is SunBelt. I think they have been FBS for quite some time.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Not a dumb question, look at the schedules. They compare well.

Sagarin rates ND's SoS at 10th nationally, compared to 30th for KSU.

Given that the strongest win on both ND's and KSU's resumes is OU, and ND looked considerably better, there is virtually no argument for KSU over ND right now.

 

[Honey Nut Irish]

It's interesting, if I had to choose an opponent for ND to face in the BCS Championship I would have to say Bama or K-state. I think we match up especially well against any SEC team. I think Oregon would be the toughest challenge.

But of course, more importantly we still have a regular season to finish off.