2025 CFB Polls and Rankings

[NewEnglandGuy]

Yeah and 6-3 Tennessee is….by comparison:
Lost at home to Georgia by 3 in OT
Lost at Bama by 17
Lost at home to Oklahoma by 6
Wins OOC Syracuse, ETSU, and UAB
SEC wins - 3 vs Arkansas, 7 in OT vs Miss St, 12 vs Kentucky
- without impressive wins, 3 of the bottom 5 teams in their conference

Pitt 7-2
Lost at WV by 7 in OT
Lost at home to Louisville by 7
Wins OOC Duquesne, Central Mich
ACC wins - 41 vs BC, 3 vs FSU, 17 vs Syracuse, 19 vs NC st, 15 vs Stanford
-also without impressive wins, 4 of the bottom 5 teams in their conference. Best is 5-4 NC St who just beat top 10 undefeated G Tech
Arkansas, Miss St, Kentucky don’t have a win like NC St does

Common opponent Tenn W by 19, Pitt by 17
Angeli was healthy vs Tenn, Pitt saw back up QB
Tenn was at home, Pitt was on road

Pitt winning 4 games by more than 2 scores
Tenn with 1 win by 2 scores

Since Pitts QB change, they are 5-0
AP has Tenn #23 and Pitt is #28 per other votes
Next highest 3 loss team is actually SMU at #32.

Summary of their resumes, Tenn played Georgia close in a loss, their loss to Oklahoma is similar to Pitt loss to Louisville. And Bama beat them up. They should be 25th-26th. 3 ranked losses. 2 close. Pitt should be there also 25th-26th.

Not surprisingly the SEC team gets a 2-3 spot boost and the ACC gets a 2-3 spot drop.
Instead of being neck and neck, they’re 5 spots and 171 vs 35 votes apart.

 

[NumbersGuy0520]

SP+ updated

Team	Rating	Offense	Defense	Spec Tms	Rk Chg
1. Ohio St. (8-0)	29.8	39.4 (8)	9.6 (1)	0.0 (81)	+1
2. Indiana (9-0)	29.5	40.7 (1)	11.8 (2)	0.5 (14)	-1
3. Oregon (7-1)	27.1	38.9 (10)	12.1 (3)	0.3 (36)	+0
4. Texas Tech (8-1)	24.3	39.0 (9)	14.7 (8)	0.0 (80)	+0
5. Texas A&M (8-0)	21.8	40.6 (2)	18.9 (21)	0.1 (61)	+0
6. Utah (7-2)	21.4	35.6 (19)	14.3 (7)	0.2 (49)	+1
7. Notre Dame (6-2)	21.4	39.4 (7)	18.1 (18)	0.0 (68)	-1
8. Oklahoma (7-2)	20.2	32.7 (39)	12.9 (4)	0.4 (18)	+0
9. Ole Miss (8-1)	19.7	38.2 (11)	19.1 (22)	0.6 (2)	+1
10. Alabama (7-1)	19.5	36.6 (15)	17.1 (14)	0.0 (76)	-1
11. Georgia (7-1)	18.7	36.1 (17)	18.0 (17)	0.6 (1)	+1
12. USC (6-2)	18.4	40.4 (3)	22.4 (43)	0.4 (28)	+4
13. Miami (6-2)	18.2	35.4 (20)	17.7 (15)	0.5 (13)	-2
14. Texas (7-2)	18.1	31.6 (43)	13.7 (5)	0.2 (46)	-1
15. Missouri (6-2)	18.1	34.3 (27)	15.9 (10)	-0.4 (116)	-1
16. BYU (8-0)	17.2	34.6 (25)	18.0 (16)	0.5 (6)	+3
17. Iowa (6-2)	17.1	30.9 (50)	14.0 (6)	0.2 (43)	+0
18. Vanderbilt (7-2)	16.8	37.9 (12)	21.6 (37)	0.5 (7)	-3
19. Washington (6-2)	16.0	36.2 (16)	19.9 (27)	-0.3 (107)	+3
20. Tennessee (6-3)	15.9	40.0 (5)	24.5 (57)	0.4 (20)	-2
21. Michigan (7-2)	15.6	31.7 (41)	15.8 (9)	-0.3 (101)	+0
22. Penn St. (3-5)	15.0	34.1 (30)	19.5 (25)	0.5 (10)	-2
23. Louisville (7-1)	14.1	33.2 (35)	19.1 (23)	0.0 (71)	+1
24. Florida St. (4-4)	13.6	33.9 (31)	20.5 (30)	0.2 (44)	+10
25. Illinois (6-3)	13.5	36.9 (14)	23.9 (51)	0.5 (9)	+5
26. LSU (5-3)	13.3	30.3 (54)	17.0 (12)	0.0 (69)	+0
27. Pittsburgh (7-2)	13.1	33.7 (32)	21.0 (33)	0.5 (11)	+1

Bonus:

42. Arkansas (2-7)	9.0	39.6 (6)	31.1 (99)	0.4 (17)	-1
43. Virginia (8-1)	8.2	30.9 (48)	23.1 (46)	0.4 (26)	+9

Wild to see our offense rated basically the same as OSU’s. If our defense can figure it out and replicate last year, we’re a title team.

 

[NDPhilly]

The “most predictive” so far this year has been Dokter Entropy, who has us 4th.

Entropy Sports Rankings and Predictions

 

[SportsingHard]

Yeah and 6-3 Tennessee is….by comparison:
Lost at home to Georgia by 3 in OT
Lost at Bama by 17
Lost at home to Oklahoma by 6
Wins OOC Syracuse, ETSU, and UAB
SEC wins - 3 vs Arkansas, 7 in OT vs Miss St, 12 vs Kentucky
- without impressive wins, 3 of the bottom 5 teams in their conference

Pitt 7-2
Lost at WV by 7 in OT
Lost at home to Louisville by 7
Wins OOC Duquesne, Central Mich
ACC wins - 41 vs BC, 3 vs FSU, 17 vs Syracuse, 19 vs NC st, 15 vs Stanford
-also without impressive wins, 4 of the bottom 5 teams in their conference. Best is 5-4 NC St who just beat top 10 undefeated G Tech
Arkansas, Miss St, Kentucky don’t have a win like NC St does

Common opponent Tenn W by 19, Pitt by 17
Angeli was healthy vs Tenn, Pitt saw back up QB
Tenn was at home, Pitt was on road

Pitt winning 4 games by more than 2 scores
Tenn with 1 win by 2 scores

Since Pitts QB change, they are 5-0
AP has Tenn #23 and Pitt is #28 per other votes
Next highest 3 loss team is actually SMU at #32.

Summary of their resumes, Tenn played Georgia close in a loss, their loss to Oklahoma is similar to Pitt loss to Louisville. And Bama beat them up. They should be 25th-26th. 3 ranked losses. 2 close. Pitt should be there also 25th-26th.

Not surprisingly the SEC team gets a 2-3 spot boost and the ACC gets a 2-3 spot drop.
Instead of being neck and neck, they’re 5 spots and 171 vs 35 votes apart.

I love the breakdown, though I've got a different conclusion. Tennessee is basically ND lite in terms of being a good team whose biggest crime is playing elite opponents. If we averaged together all advanced stat rankings, ND would come out a bit ahead of A&M/Miami/Bama/Georgia/Oklahoma, who would all be bunched together, so yes, I'm labeling all five elite. Tennessee might come in around #20 and Pitt around #30. I'm not ignoring wins, but that all seems to favor Tennesse over Pitt, who lost to teams ranking #25-ish and #85-ish.

One way I can imagine advanced stats expanding in the near future is assigning every result a difficulty score. For example, in 2025, beating MSU by 10 at home would be roughly equivalent, in difficulty, to losing to Michigan by 7 at home. Thirty years ago, I would've been the guy to come up with this formula, but I've forgotten 99% of the math I learned.

Long story short, if we added together the nine difficulty scores, respectively, for UT and Pitt, I believe UT would have a significant edge.

 

[stlnd01]

Wild to see our offense rated basically the same as OSU’s. If our defense can figure it out and replicate last year, we’re a title team.

Our defense has been pretty damn good since the second half of our third game. I have more concerns about the offense, tbh.

 

[SportsingHard]

Wild to see our offense rated basically the same as OSU’s. If our defense can figure it out and replicate last year, we’re a title team.

Very possible, yes, though it might help to find a healthy and reasonably consistent kicker.

 

[SportsingHard]

Our defense has been pretty damn good since the second half of our third game. I have more concerns about the offense, tbh.

In the P4, ND ranks 4th is pass efficiency and 11th in yards per carry, with a high level of ball security and a schedule-to-date that's still ranked #1 most difficult by some, and we're improving (or at least not remotely what we were in the opener.) I'm curious to hear your offensive concerns.

 

[LifelongFan]

The offense is great for about 80 of the 100 yards. Too bad the last 20 is where it really matters.

 

[IrishTusker]

In the P4, ND ranks 4th is pass efficiency and 11th in yards per carry, with a high level of ball security and a schedule-to-date that's still ranked #1 most difficult by some, and we're improving (or at least not remotely what we were in the opener.) I'm curious to hear your offensive concerns.

Red zone dead zone

 

[SDIrishFan]

Our defense has been pretty damn good since the second half of our third game. I have more concerns about the offense, tbh.

I’m with you on this. The defense has been ballin’ of late.

The offense, while it has some great stats, just doesn’t seem to gel well. Goal to go is a joke, 3rd and 4th and 1 are a joke. We seem to be too boom or bust. Untimely turnovers. When we want to line up and just punish ppl (like the end of BC), we can’t.

 

[stlnd01]

In the P4, ND ranks 4th is pass efficiency and 11th in yards per carry, with a high level of ball security and a schedule-to-date that's still ranked #1 most difficult by some, and we're improving (or at least not remotely what we were in the opener.) I'm curious to hear your offensive concerns.

We break big plays, which is great and probably helps our overall stats.
But we've struggled all season on third/fourth and short, and our lack of confidence at this point is notable.
We're down two (three w/Jagusah) starting OLs, and our RBs are kind of boom-and-bust-y. I'd love a more reliable running game.
Carr seems to have regressed a bit in the last few weeks. Big picture I'm not worried about him but he definitely hung a few up there yesterday.
And we haven't seen an elite edge rusher since A&M, given those two games I'm not yet sold on Knapp and Wagner's ability to keep the pocket clean against better teams.

These are all minor concerns, to be clear. At our best we can score plenty of points. But right now to me I feel better about the defense than I do about the offense. This is a good thing it means we are a complete team.

 

[BeatSC]

My concern is our ability to get off the field on 3rd or 4th and short. I can’t remember stopping anyone yet. USC doesn’t count because they were stupid and tried to pass the ball.

 

[SportsingHard]

The offense is great for about 80 of the 100 yards. Too bad the last 20 is where it really matters.

Red zone dead zone

While I see offense and special teams as separate things, ND is #15 in the P4 in redzone TD%. That is with Price losing fumbles 3 times inside the 10 and twice inside the 5, and he's highly unlikely to maintain that pace.

 

[SportsingHard]

The “most predictive” so far this year has been Dokter Entropy, who has us 4th.

Entropy Sports Rankings and Predictions

DE has 2-7 Arkansas at #34. As you surely know, that doesn't mean DE is dumb. That means Arkansas might be the best 2-7 team in the history of football.

 

[NDPhilly]

DE has 2-7 Arkansas at #34. As you surely know, that doesn't mean DE is dumb. That means Arkansas might be the best 2-7 team in the history of football.

lol 4-8 ND in 2016 was 32 in ESPN’s FPI.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Does SC beat Nebraska if Raiola doesn’t get hurt? Maiava had a bad outing. They have more losing in their future.

 

[ulukinatme]

I’m surprised Pitt is not in either the AP or Coaches Top 25.

Narduzzi wanted to be in the Top 25, but when he found ND was already there he said "To hell with that!"

 

[Wild Bill]

Does SC beat Nebraska if Raiola doesn’t get hurt? Maiava had a bad outing. They have more losing in their future.

Maybe. He wasn’t exactly lighting it up with 90 passing yards before he got hurt, tho

They have NW and Iowa at home and they're far better at home so hopefully they can pull those out. If they can avoid a thorough ass beating from Oregon they should be able to stay ranked for us.

 

[Guyjin37]

DE has 2-7 Arkansas at #34. As you surely know, that doesn't mean DE is dumb. That means Arkansas might be the best 2-7 team in the history of football.

What it really tells us is that a team, because it is playing better than its record, will likely bounce back big the following year. Or at least it did traditionally before the modern transfer portal/NIL. With the larger differences in team rosters from year to year nowadays, I'm curious to see if they really can bounce back next year.

 

[stlnd01]

Maybe. He wasn’t exactly lighting it up with 90 passing yards before he got hurt, tho

They have NW and Iowa at home and they're far better at home so hopefully they can pull those out. If they can avoid a thorough ass beating from Oregon they should be able to stay ranked for us.

I know they don't play as well on the road, but it'd be even better if they could actually beat Oregon.

 

[SportsingHard]

The “most predictive” so far this year has been Dokter Entropy, who has us 4th.

Entropy Sports Rankings and Predictions

Do you have a source on these rankings and which are most predictive?

 

[Huntr]

ThePredictiontracker.com

Be prepared. Tons of data there.

With links to each rater/predictor

 

[SportsingHard]

ThePredictiontracker.com

Be prepared. Tons of data there.

With links to each rater/predictor

Thanks. This site, and this screen, specifically, is why I'm asking.

ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

DE is at #7. I get why 2, 3, 5, and 6 (not rankings) don't count, but I don't know anything about the rest.

 

[Huntr]

Thanks. This site, and this screen, specifically, is why I'm asking.

ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

DE is at #7. I get why 2, 3, 5, and 6 (not rankings) don't count, but I don't know anything about the rest.

IDK. I've been on that site for a long time and my personal pet is the Donchess ratings. That guy is really good.

 

[irish4ever]

would guess the CFP rankings are something like:

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana (could see them at 1, best win)
3. A&M
4. Bama
5. Oregon (better computer ratings than Georgia)
6. Georgia
7. BYU (expecting record to matter more even though they haven't played anyone)
8. Ole Miss
9. Texas Tech (make a top 10 matchup next week, good computer polls)
10. Miami
11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame
13. Louisville (Do they put them over Miami and us?)
14. Texas (team i could see being weirdly higher than this)
15. Vanderbilt
16. Georgia Tech
17. Utah
18. Virginia
19. Missouri
20. USC
21. Michigan
22. Iowa
23. Tennessee (could see them being over the 2 loss B1G jamboree)
24. Memphis (need a G5 team in there, could see them being as high as 20)
25. Cincinnati (Washington maybe?)

No way the Irish are worse than 10th. Miami is on the big downfall and won't be any higher than 15th. Oklahoma, hahahaha. NO FRICKIN' WAY! Regardless, they have AT Bama, Mizzou and LSU 3 weeks in a row .... they WON'T sweep that line-up. This upcoming w/e, the loser of the BYU/Texas Tech game goes behind the Irish. Irish are working their way up to a top 8 ranking and a HOME playoff game! Go Irish 🍀

 

[irish4ever]

In the P4, ND ranks 4th is pass efficiency and 11th in yards per carry, with a high level of ball security and a schedule-to-date that's still ranked #1 most difficult by some, and we're improving (or at least not remotely what we were in the opener.) I'm curious to hear your offensive concerns.

Our kickers (not punter) completely fuckin' SUCK!

 

[NorthDakota]

No way the Irish are worse than 10th. Miami is on the big downfall and won't be any higher than 15th. Oklahoma, hahahaha. NO FRICKIN' WAY! Regardless, they have AT Bama, Mizzou and LSU 3 weeks in a row .... they WON'T sweep that line-up. This upcoming w/e, the loser of the BYU/Texas Tech game goes behind the Irish. Irish are working their way up to a top 8 ranking and a HOME playoff game! Go Irish 🍀

Notre Dame can't kick a PAT.

 

[TNUtoNotreDame]

Notre Dame can't kick a PAT.

We can kick it we just can’t make it

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

I think if we played today we’d beat both TAM and Miami.

 

[stlnd01]

I think if we played today we’d beat both TAM and Miami.

Miami for sure. Our offense was a mess that night and it's a lot better now.
A&M has gotten better, it feels like (as have we). Hard to say how that'd game would go now, but clearly we could have/should have won then. Would probably be roughly a tossup on a neutral field.