2024 Fall Camp Thread

[Some Irish Bloke]

Facts. Even Nick Saban said he thinks it’s an advantage for Notre Dame. He pointed out that Notre Dame actually does get a bye since they don’t have to play in a conference championship game, so they can rest that week and get ready for a home or road playoff game. Makes sense and you have to listen to the goat of college football coaching.

The "join a conference" idiots will never change their tune. I couldn't agree more.

 

[arndtjc]

Yes, I think ND makes out very well in the current structure. A top 5 ND gets the weakest overall seed (in South Bend) followed by the #4 conference champ. It may even be an advantage over a first round bye.

Except the committee has come out and already said the seeding after the top four doesn't matter, and they'll seed and slot to make for good matchups, attendance, and storylines.

An 11-1 ND getting LSU at home would be really hard for the networks and everyone involved with the CFP to pass up

 

[stlnd01]

Except the committee has come out and already said the seeding after the top four doesn't matter, and they'll seed and slot to make for good matchups, attendance, and storylines.

An 11-1 ND getting LSU at home would be really hard for the networks and everyone involved with the CFP to pass up

Really? That's kind of crappy (especially considering 4 and maybe even 3 will probably be lesser teams than several of the 5-8 seeds). They should reward the best teams with the better seeds.

As for us, I think if we are undefeated or one-loss (and clearly making the tournament) the current setup benefits us.
I worry if we're two-loss and on the bubble competing with conference teams for the later at-large spots, being independent will, frankly, hurt our chances. Too much money on the line for the conferences, and too easy to yell "but they don't play a conference title game Pawwlll!"

 

[IrishLax]

Except the committee has come out and already said the seeding after the top four doesn't matter, and they'll seed and slot to make for good matchups, attendance, and storylines.

An 11-1 ND getting LSU at home would be really hard for the networks and everyone involved with the CFP to pass up

When did they say this?

 

[a mike]

Except the committee has come out and already said the seeding after the top four doesn't matter, and they'll seed and slot to make for good matchups, attendance, and storylines.

Wait a minute--you mean to say people running around taking generic playoff projections included in offseason speculative sausage-filled articles as gospel for how the playoff selection/formatting works and thinking Swarbrick gamed the entire rest of the NCAA and the B10/SEC powerbrokers is all just an echochamber circle jerk fantasy?

 

[arndtjc]

When did they say this?

I can't find the exact quote, but someone on the committee said they would be open to moving things around to get the best matchups, attendance, etc

 

[HouseofPain]

Really? That's kind of crappy (especially considering 4 and maybe even 3 will probably be lesser teams than several of the 5-8 seeds). They should reward the best teams with the better seeds.

As for us, I think if we are undefeated or one-loss (and clearly making the tournament) the current setup benefits us.
I worry if we're two-loss and on the bubble competing with conference teams for the later at-large spots, being independent will, frankly, hurt our chances. Too much money on the line for the conferences, and too easy to yell "but they don't play a conference title game Pawwlll!"

If ND is a two loss with that schedule it has 0% chance of doing well in the playoffs

 

[Huntr]

• The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and will receive a first-round bye. The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings. Non-conference champions ranked in the top four will be seeded beginning at No. 5. Because of this, the seeding, 1 through 12, could look different than the final rankings.

• The College Football Playoff bracket will follow the selection committee’s rankings, with no modifications made to avoid rematches between teams that may have played during the regular season or are from the same conference.

From the horse's mouth

 

[greyhammer90]

Wait a minute--you mean to say people running around taking generic playoff projections included in offseason speculative sausage-filled articles as gospel for how the playoff selection/formatting works and thinking Swarbrick gamed the entire rest of the NCAA and the B10/SEC powerbrokers is all just an echochamber circle jerk fantasy?

From the horse's mouth

wAiT a MiNuTe -- you mean to say you're just an asshole?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

If ND is a two loss with that schedule it has 0% chance of doing well in the playoffs

I get this sentiment but we haven't played out the season yet. GT just beat FSU, they could be legit this year. let's see what FSU does the rest of the way. I those are two 9-10 win programs (might be a stretch, but for the sake of argument) our schedule all of a sudden looks top notch.

Louisville could easily be 9-3 with a talented roster coming back in '24. Could Purdue surprise and get to 7 or 8 wins? And most importantly, what if Elko quickly resurrects a sleeping giant in College Station after a major roster overhaul in the portal?

TL'DR: we have no idea how 10-2 will look for ND. I do know this, brand and ratings matter and they don't get much better than the Irish for $$$$

 

[stlnd01]

From the horse's mouth

Yeah. That's not "we're going to engineer the matchups so that LSU plays at Notre Dame because ratings." That's "If Georgia's #1 and SEC champ, and Bama's #3 and runner-up, Bama's going to be the 5 seed b/c they didn't win their conference."

 

[a mike]

If ND is a two loss with that schedule it has 0% chance of doing well in the playoffs

Yes because zero chance of getting into playoffs equals zero chance of doing well in the playoffs.

August 31 looms large for Freeman--a must win because he has otherwise shown thus far there will inevitably be another toe stubbing/egg laying at some point during the year such as 2022 Marshall/Stanford/USC, 2023 Ville/Clemson, and moreorless 2023 Duke. All the talking heads are baking one into their season predictions because of the propensity.

Lose the only difficult game of the year and drop another against such as easy schedule and it's highly unlikely ND makes the playoffs.

 

[lcaps20]

Yes because zero chance of getting into playoffs equals zero chance of doing well in the playoffs.

August 31 looms large for Freeman--a must win because he has otherwise shown thus far there will inevitably be another toe stubbing/egg laying at some point during the year such as 2022 Marshall/Stanford/USC, 2023 Ville/Clemson, and moreorless 2023 Duke. All the talking heads are baking one into their season predictions because of the propensity.

Lose the only difficult game of the year and drop another against such as easy schedule and it's highly unlikely ND makes the playoffs.

The games you listed are just so wildly different in year 2 than the Marshall or Stanford game in year 1 that it makes me convinced you're absolutely trolling. You can't just pick every loss and say its a toe stubbing/egg laying game.

Oh yeah and throwing more or less Duke in there is just objectively ignorant.

 

[NDohio]

I can't find the exact quote, but someone on the committee said they would be open to moving things around to get the best matchups, attendance, etc

I would love to see that quote. They have even said that no modifications will be made to avoid rematches.

 

[Terry Jillery]

Facts. Even Nick Saban said he thinks it’s an advantage for Notre Dame. He pointed out that Notre Dame actually does get a bye since they don’t have to play in a conference championship game, so they can rest that week and get ready for a home or road playoff game. Makes sense and you have to listen to the goat of college football coaching.

Agree and if this is a two loss team we aren’t winning a championship regardless of playoff or not. If we aren’t going to win the whole thing I personally don’t care if we make it or not. I’d take 11-1 or 12-0 and a break before the first round.

 

[a mike]

The games you listed are just so wildly different in year 2 than the Marshall or Stanford game in year 1 that it makes me convinced you're absolutely trolling. You can't just pick every loss and say its a toe stubbing/egg laying game.

Oh yeah and throwing more or less Duke in there is just objectively ignorant.

Losing to less talented teams is by nature toe stubbing/egg laying, no?

Obviously losing 2022 OSU and 2023 OSU games were understandable/legitimate. Those were very very talented teams--much more so than ND.

But none of the others were particularly remarkable. 2023 Clemson just generally muddled around against all their opponents and have been a program on a clearly defined downward trajectory since 2021. Let's not sit around and disingenuously pretend it was the same team/program as the mid/late 2010s.

I think you're failing to cast an objective eye here and admit that thus far in his career Freeman has showed a propensity to lay eggs.

If he would have just held court the 2022 and 2023 seasons would have easily both been 11-1 or 10-2.

As of now he's basically contributing about a -1.5 wins to what ND's baseline results should be yielding.

I apologize reality isn't squaring with you.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Losing to less talented teams is by nature toe stubbing/egg laying, no?

 

[stlnd01]

Agree and if this is a two loss team we aren’t winning a championship regardless of playoff or not. If we aren’t going to win the whole thing I personally don’t care if we make it or not. I’d take 11-1 or 12-0 and a break before the first round.

Seriously?

Winning the playoffs (for us beating four straight top 10-ish teams) is going to be very hard, no matter our regular season record. But making the playoff is quite achievable, and it will be the measure of a successful season for every major program going forward. It'll have all sorts of ramifications in terms of recruiting, coaching stability, desirability for transfers (and fending off poachers), etc. Basically, it'll define who matters. Even if you're 10-2 and the 11 seed, you are vastly better off on the right side of that line.

And then who knows what happens, maybe you win a game or even two depending on the matchups.

 

[arndtjc]

I would love to see that quote. They have even said that no modifications will be made to avoid rematches.

Look I can’t find it anywhere but I swear on my last three bottles of Jameson that there was a quote from a committee member saying they would tweak seeds if necessary for matchups in the last month or so

 

[NDohio]

Look I can’t find it anywhere but I swear on my last three bottles of Jameson that there was a quote from a committee member saying they would tweak seeds if necessary for matchups in the last month or so

Oooh boy, that's a bold statement.

 

[GrangerIrish24]

Oooh boy, that's a bold statement.

is that like the last three from today?

 

[arndtjc]

Oooh boy, that's a bold statement.

There’s a few folks here who know how truly bold that is coming from me

 

[arndtjc]

is that like the last three from today?

Three bottles are always behind a ‘break glass in case of emergency’ extinguisher cabinet

 

[Irish#1]

There’s a few folks here who know how truly bold that is coming from me

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

There’s a few folks here who know how truly bold that is coming from me

 

[IrishLax]

I can't find the exact quote, but someone on the committee said they would be open to moving things around to get the best matchups, attendance, etc

Yeah that tracks, they have provisions like that in almost all college sports, the main thing is to avoid rematches or stupid travel. They aren’t just gonna stick an undefeated team #12 though for the heck of it.

 

[LifelongFan]

The only real moving I could see is if a small college town just couldn't host in that short of time, but I think all P4+ND teams should easily be able to. It could be if like Appalachian State was on the cusp of hosting. Teams would rebel if they were clearly the 5 seed and had to play the 6 seed, which probably would only marginally improve tv ratings.

 

[IrishLax]

The only real moving I could see is if a small college town just couldn't host in that short of time, but I think all P4+ND teams should easily be able to. It could be if like Appalachian State was on the cusp of hosting. Teams would rebel if they were clearly the 5 seed and had to play the 6 seed, which probably would only marginally improve tv ratings.

Usually what happens is this:
-Auburn and Alabama play last game of the season, Bama wins but then loses SEC Chanpionship game, gets #6 seed.
-Auburn is like 9-3 and slotted for the #11 seed, would be a rematch with Bama. They move them down to #12 to avoid the rematch.

What occasionally happens:
-Small school gets bumped from hosting for logistical or political reasons.
-Rather than make Oklahoma State (#10) fly to Oregon (#7) they have them play at Oklahoma instead when OU is the #6 seed.

What virtually never happens:
-Team that should be in gets left out
-Team well above the cut line (#8/9) that should host gets bumped down the pecking order multiple spots

They want to give themselves wiggle room though for situations like if the SEC gets 5 teams in.

 

[NDohio]

The only real moving I could see is if a small college town just couldn't host in that short of time, but I think all P4+ND teams should easily be able to. It could be if like Appalachian State was on the cusp of hosting. Teams would rebel if they were clearly the 5 seed and had to play the 6 seed, which probably would only marginally improve tv ratings.

There is a provision in the rules for the host team to schedule the game at a larger facility of their choice.

 

[irishff1014]

I own up when I m wrong.

I am glad to see that Freeman said this was the healthiest fall camp in years.