2020 Season and Predictions

[NewEnglandGuy]

Game week after the holiday, figured I would fire up the start of the season.

Here are the updates to the schedule since the nice infographic released by the ACC on 8/6:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The wait is over.<br><br>More info » <a href="https://t.co/yJUXpEhokA">https://t.co/yJUXpEhokA</a> <a href="https://t.co/W3LJACMP8r">pic.twitter.com/W3LJACMP8r</a></p>— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/ACCFootball/status/1291359479506833409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 6, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Here are the schedule changes so far:

The Boston College Eagles now have a bye in the opening week and a non-conference game in the third week (technically week number four).
The Clemson Tigers added a non-conference opponent in week three.
The Florida State Seminoles have a bye in week three and a non-conference opponent in week five.
The North Carolina Tar Heels added a non-conference opponent in week three.
The NC State Wolfpack now have a bye in the opening week and will visit Virginia Tech in week four.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish replaced their non-conference opponent in week three.
The Pittsburgh Panthers replaced their non-conference opponent in week two.
The Virginia Cavaliers lost their non-conference opponent in week two and scheduled a new one in week twelve.
The Virginia Tech Hokies had to move the NC State game from week two to week four, resulting in an opening week bye.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons replaced their non-conference opponent in week six.

https://www.cardiachill.com/2020/9/8/21425929/revised-2020-acc-football-schedule-analysis


ESPN came out with their season predictions this morning, and Mark Schlabach to my surprise said this:

Clemson's long ACC winning streak ends at, ahem, Notre Dame:
The Tigers, who have won five straight ACC titles, bring a 22-game winning streak against conference foes into the 2020 season. By the time Clemson travels to Notre Dame on Nov. 7, that winning streak will stand at 28 in a row, one shy of the ACC record set by Florida State from 1992 to 1995. The Tigers' streak will end in the most 2020 way possible, against the Fighting Irish, who are playing an ACC schedule this season because of the pandemic. The Tigers will get their revenge against the Irish in the ACC championship game.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...redictions-awards-storylines-every-conference

But in the same article, also picked Pitt and UNC to upset ND.

Prior to the weekend, the ACC media released their preseason poll and awards:

https://theacc.com/news/2020/9/4/clemson-leads-2020-acc-preseason-football-selections.aspx

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Dabo Swinney: “Two people picked Notre Dame to win the ACC! Nobody believes in little old Clemson.” (probably) <a href="https://t.co/hjtF9Ds3cU">https://t.co/hjtF9Ds3cU</a></p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1301868984455827456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 4, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Most outlets have similar predictions with ND commonly ranked second. ACC championship game is definitely the expectation and anything less, maybe besides that Clemson upset, will be a disappointing year.

With a 10 game schedule, and 14 opponents for the respective 15 member league in 2020, there are 4 teams each will not play. For end of the year positioning in the final rankings to make the Conference championship game, considering tie breakers, here are the top teams schedules for opponents missed (every team is moved up one ranking when it ranked lower then the team in question. For example, ND is the #1 ACC team Clemson can play).

Clemson:
#2, #3, #10, #11 (misses UNC, Louisville, NC St, Duke)

Notre Dame:
#4, #5, #8, #10 (misses V Tech, Miami, UVA, NC St)

UNC:
#1, #3, #7, #14 (misses Clemson, Louisville, Pitt, GT)

Louisville:
#1, #3, #10, #11 (misses Clemson, UNC, NC St, Duke)

Virginia Tech:
#2, #6, #13, #14 (misses ND, FSU, Syracuse, GT)

Miami:
#2, #11, #12, #13 (misses ND, Duke, BC, Syracuse)

Florida St:
#5, #9, #12, #13 (misses V Tech, WF, BC, Syracuse)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The ACC announces a 10-game league schedule for Notre Dame, including home dates with Clemson and Florida State. <br><br>Irish eligible to play in the ACC Championship game on Dec. 12 or Dec. 19. <a href="https://t.co/719VKIUr03">https://t.co/719VKIUr03</a></p>— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1288574111736836101?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Take Aways:
-UNC and Louisville both benefit from not playing each other or Clemson, two of the top 4 teams in the league. ND playing them both will most likely be a data point for a tiebreaker.
-If ND loses to Clemson and either Louisville OR North Carolina, at 8-2 in the league, to make the championship ND would need the Louisville or UNC winner to be 7-3 (which according to the rankings would mean that if they WON the ND game, they would need to be upset 3 times)
-Clemson's other tough games besides ND are @ V Tech, @ FSU, and home vs Miami. V Tech is one of the few conference teams to not name their starter for opening week although it is likely Hendon Hooker
https://richmond.com/sports/college...cle_d1a7a467-7327-53fa-a922-2571299fe442.html
-Miami and FSU will have a big impact on the outcome of the leagues with a top transfer at QB and a new coach respectively in 2020. Miami plays 9 of the top 10 teams and FSU plays 7 of the top 8. Their schedules are two of the toughest in conference for 2020.

https://www.18stripes.com/trophy-hunting-breaking-down-the-toughest-easiest-2020-acc-schedules/

Hope the season gets played in entirety, it gets kicked off:
Thursday, Sept. 10
Miami (Fla.) vs. UAB | 8 p.m. | ACC Network

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/...20-acc-football-schedule-games-dates-matchups

 

[notredomer23]

My only prediction is every game scheduled will get played.

 

[irishtrain]

This is a very good Notre Dame football team that is coached by a guy who by himself is worth a few coach wins-BUT I believe the conference is going to give blood to show the Irish your not just waltzing in here and playing in the conference championship game-it hurts to say and how I want to be wrong but I'm saying 3 losses. It will be a super bowl game each and every week for the opposition. They will do whatever it takes to keep the Irish out of the championship game-it will be interesting and how I want to be wrong.

 

[benneboy]

This is a very good Notre Dame football team that is coached by a guy who by himself is worth a few coach wins-BUT I believe the conference is going to give blood to show the Irish your not just waltzing in here and playing in the conference championship game-it hurts to say and how I want to be wrong but I'm saying 3 losses. It will be a super bowl game each and every week for the opposition. They will do whatever it takes to keep the Irish out of the championship game-it will be interesting and how I want to be wrong.

Not sure I get the logic. Conference that wants us to join as full members does everything in their power to screw us the one year we're a full member? Would think the best possible scenario would be Clemson and ND make the playoffs, ND wins the whole thing and makes us rethink independence. Not, "that sucked lest never do that again".

 

[TorontoGold]

What are the tiebreakers for seeding? If Lousiville and Clemson both have one loss (to ND, of course) who gets the #2 seed?

 

[Ndaccountant]

My prediction is that ND will be left out of the playoff in favor of 8-0 Ohio State based on the "eye test", despite ND being 1-1 vs Clemson and having more "data points". Basically, ND will get screwed over because of the ACC Championship game in an incredible stroke of irony.

 

[dad4aa]

My prediction is that ND will be left out of the playoff in favor of 8-0 Ohio State based on the "eye test", despite ND being 1-1 vs Clemson and having more "data points". Basically, ND will get screwed over because of the ACC Championship game in an incredible stroke of irony.

I thought someone posted the Big Ten is out of the CFP because they won’t have enough games to qualify.

 

[NDRock]

I’ll say 9-2. Think we’ll be very good but our lack of game breakers will keep us from being able to compete with the elite teams. Should be a fun season.

 

[tussin]

We need a poll!

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

I’ll say 9-2. Think we’ll be very good but our lack of game breakers will keep us from being able to compete with the elite teams. Should be a fun season.

Lack of game breakers?
Elite team(s?)

Other than Clemson, who is more elite on our schedule.

 

[phillyirish]

How the heck do 3 of the top 4 ACC teams (Clemson, UNC and Louisville) avoid playing each other at all? And ND has to play them all.

 

[ACamp1900]

How the heck do 3 of the top 4 ACC teams (Clemson, UNC and Louisville) avoid playing each other at all? And ND has to play them all.

Following the SEC model.

Anyway, I have ND going 0-12 (yes I know how many games they play)

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Following the SEC model.

Anyway, I have ND going 0-12 (yes I know how many games they play)

0-10 and still making the acc championship/bowl game for more losses!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

11-1. We'll play Clemson twice and win once. Playoff berth rides on whether that win comes in November or December.

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

What are the tiebreakers for seeding? If Lousiville and Clemson both have one loss (to ND, of course) who gets the #2 seed?

Tie breakers are often similar for all post season play:

In case of a tie for any place finish in the regular-season standings, the following tie-breaking procedure shall be followed in order to seed teams in the tournament bracket:

A. Two-team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.

2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of all opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.

B. Multiple-team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.
a. When comparing records against the tied teams, teams will be seeded based on winning percentage among the group, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). If all teams among the group are separated based on winning percentage, all ties are broken. If winning percentage among the group for any tied teams is equal, move to step b with those specific tied teams only (e.g. if there is a four-team tie, one team is 4-0, another is 3-1 and the last two are 2-2 among the group, the two teams that are 2-2 move to step b and the teams that are 4-0 and 3-1 assume the next two available highest seeds).
Note: Teams can be separated from the top, middle or bottom.
b. If a team or teams are separated from the group based on step a, seeding for remaining teams among the group is not determined by head-to-head record vs. the remaining teams, but rather by taking all remaining teams to next tie breaker.

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.

Your scenario of if Louisville and Clemson are 9-1 and ND is 10-0, may be the one example of the craziest tie ever and result in a coin flip.
-they share the exact same schedule except for their one out of conference game. Both avoid UNC, NC St, and Duke in conference as well as share the same loss to an undefeated team.

For the sake a more likely scenario for the ACC championship 2020 game conversation: Clemson goes 10-0 and therefore would have beat ND, but wouldn't have played UNC or Louisville. The other team to play them in Charlotte would come down who upsets the top teams which, for a team not used to conference play, is interesting.

ND has a nice schedule, only one team has a bye the week before (UNC), but as discussed ND is also coming of a bye the same week. It starts with 3 easier games and a bye prior to the first difficult game to help iron out deficiencies from a COVID altering preseason. 3 of the 5 hardest games are also at home. From a tie breaker standpoint however, losing to UNC or Louisville in addition to Clemson would remove reaching the title game if either are also 8-2 due to the easiest of all tie breakers to calculate - head to head result.

 

[NewEnglandGuy]

We need a poll!

Agreed. Done.

 

[IrishLax]

How the heck do 3 of the top 4 ACC teams (Clemson, UNC and Louisville) avoid playing each other at all? And ND has to play them all.

Welcome to strategic conference scheduling.

 

[ACamp1900]

Welcome to strategic conference scheduling.

We
Need
To
Join
A
Conference

 

[zelezo vlk]

Wild how Louisville is a top team in the ACC a year after being considered one of the worst. Sattersfield really got them into shape

 

[ACamp1900]

Agreed. Done.

7 or less is so unsatisfying

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Wild how Louisville is a top team in the ACC a year after being considered one of the worst. Sattersfield really got them into shape

Petrino didn't cut corners when it came to mailing it in. He made sure the team performance collapsed right away so he didn't have them limping along for a few years, hollowing out the roster over time.

 

[NDRock]

Lack of game breakers?
Elite team(s?)

Other than Clemson, who is more elite on our schedule.

Yeah, just Clemson. Just think we'll be similar to the last 3 seasons. Very well coached team who will win a bunch of games but will be a step down talent wise from the elite programs. As far as game breakers. I personally don't see any 1st round (or 2nd or 3rd) talent in our WR corp and the running backs have done nothing. Hopefully the OL and TE positions will come up big and Book will take a step forward.

 

[Irish YJ]

11-1. We'll play Clemson twice and win once. Playoff berth rides on whether that win comes in November or December.

x2 on splitting with Clemson and winning the rest, but I think we make the playoffs regardless so long as we split and don't get blown out in the loss.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

x2 on splitting with Clemson and winning the rest, but I think we make the playoffs regardless so long as we split and don't get blown out in the loss.

I've followed the program closely since 2002, and have been a member of this board since 2011, and I've never felt as confident in our team heading into a season as I do right now. TIFWIW.

 

[Irish YJ]

I've followed the program closely since 2002, and have been a member of this board since 2011, and I've never felt as confident in our team heading into a season as I do right now. TIFWIW.

Ditto.

SR QB, assumed more speedy and dynamic O in general with Reesus, assumed more dynamic running backs, assumed great and deep front 7, some real play makers at DB, and Clemson at home in November.

Add on top of that, the Irish homer in me believes that ND will prepare in the Covid world better than any other contender.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Ditto.

SR QB, assumed more speedy and dynamic O in general with Reesus, assumed more dynamic running backs, assumed great and deep front 7, some real play makers at DB, and Clemson at home in November.

Add on top of that, the Irish homer in me believes that ND will prepare in the Covid world better than any other contender.

[webm]https://i.imgur.com/Othtc8l.mp4[/webm]

All aboard the hype train.

 

[Irish YJ]

All aboard the hype train.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I've followed the program closely since 2002, and have been a member of this board since 2011, and I've never felt as confident in our team heading into a season as I do right now. TIFWIW.

Pre game 1 I think this is the best team on paper since Kevin McDougal was under center.

 

[greyhammer90]

It's going to come down to the OL. If they are as good as we think, Reesus will provide.

I'm also oddly confident. The fact that our second hardest game is UNC helps.

 

[Irish YJ]

It's going to come down to the OL. If they are as good as we think, Reesus will provide.

I'm also oddly confident. The fact that our second hardest game is UNC helps.

This.

I think we've been overrated in that department the last few years. But I also think part of the OL problems were due to O scheme, so Reesus may be actually helping provide in that area too.