2020 ND Football Schedule Options

[dublinirish]

The problem with spring ball is that it's probably going to have an impact on the start of next season. I would suspect a later than normal start. I doubt the NFL moves their draft either so I can see several draft projected players from the B1G opting out in favor of preparing for the draft. Can't say I would blame them. Have we seen the last of J. Fields playing CFB?

Spring = JV league

 

[stpeteirish]

Frost has said he wants to play, but that was if they cancelled instead of postponing IIRC. Postponing the season may have taken away any leverage he had if he had any in the first place. I have no idea how those contracts work when they join a conference.

CBS sports has a story on their website about this. Seems that the league owns the TV rights so Neb will have some difficultly getting their home games on TV.

It would be funny to see Neb, who for years have played 8 home games, play a bunch of road games. The Sun Belt says they're playing. Could the Huskers make it thru the daunting road slate of App St GA Southern and Troy?

 

[T Town Tommy]

Pac12 is done

The PAC 12 has the weakest commissioner of the five conferences. He has notoriously made bad decisions during his tenure. I thought the conference was going to be on life support when the new tv contracts get done. If they vote for no fall ball, they may get there much quicker. The 37 fans the entire conference has must be used to the disappointment by now.

 

[calvegas04]

To be fair, nobody watches them anyway

Pac 12 at dark is the best way to end a Saturday night

 

[Legacy]

If I was a SEC player projected to be in the first two rounds, I'd opt out. Too risky for my health and possible loss of future earnings. What's really to play for anyway?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I assume the SEC, ACC, Big-12 and ND have realized that pulling off a successful fall season is a huge opportunity to win market share from the PAC-12 and the B1G.

 

[greyhammer90]

I may end up being wrong about this (and to be clear, I really hope I am) but the few guys pounding their chest over the B1G and Pac-12 cancelling need to explain to me how this isn't going to happen to the ACC or SEC. Looking past the dysfunctional mess that is the Pac-12, everyone appears to agree that the Big-10 is not doing this to be altruistic. That means the math is stacked against having a football season, and the math is going to be the same everywhere.

There is so much money the B1G is leaving on the table by walking away. Thinking that the people in charge of the B1G are doing it for political theater or because they haven't appropriately weighed their options seems like a tall assumption. I don't see a scenario where Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa all willingly walk away from their biggest advertising boon, piss off their big-name midwestern donors, and hurt all other sports that rely on football income without thoroughly exploring all options and coming to the conclusion that they are essentially forced to do it by the reality of the situation.

The Big Ten isn't some powderpuff organization that takes hits of a few hundred million dollars lightly. They speak money, prestige, and national brand recognition as well as any large business in the country. I find it hard to believe they made this decision without it being their only option once they looked at the information. You can argue with what the underlying cause of the math is, but like I said the math is the math.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The Big Ten isn't some powderpuff organization that takes hits of a few hundred million dollars lightly. They speak money, prestige, and national brand recognition as well as any large business in the country. I find it hard to believe they made this decision without it being their only option once they looked at the information. You can argue with what the underlying cause of the math is, but like I said the math is the math.

This begs the question, though. If "the underlying cause" is liability stemming from unreasonable risks to student athletes, then yes, those conferences/ programs still hoping to move forward look greedy and unethical.

But if it's instead a more cynical calculation about lost revenue from being unable to fill stadiums, the ability to claim insurance monies due to COVID-related cancellations, etc., then it suddenly looks much more cowardly and self-serving, particularly because it's going to hose a bunch of kids who were counting on an opportunity to compete.

 

[greyhammer90]

This begs the question, though. If "the underlying cause" is liability stemming from unreasonable risks to student athletes, then yes, those conferences/ programs still hoping to move forward look greedy and unethical.

But if it's instead a more cynical calculation about lost revenue from being unable to fill stadiums, the ability to claim insurance monies due to COVID-related cancellations, etc., then it suddenly looks much more cowardly and self-serving, particularly because it's going to hose a bunch of kids who were counting on an opportunity to compete.

Like I said in my post, I'm not making a judgment either way. But you know as well as I do that the risk analysis on a "deal" like this generally becomes clear once you run the numbers and have good access to the information (or lack of information). I could see the Pac-12 coming to a rash decision due to the apparent incompetence that runs to the very top and their cultural non-dependence on cfb. On the other hand, I do not see the B1G cancelling the football season if there was any way they felt they could make it work. That bodes extremely badly for all of football.

 

[IrishLax]

I may end up being wrong about this (and to be clear, I really hope I am) but the few guys pounding their chest over the B1G and Pac-12 cancelling need to explain to me how this isn't going to happen to the ACC or SEC. Looking past the dysfunctional mess that is the Pac-12, everyone appears to agree that the Big-10 is not doing this to be altruistic. That means the math is stacked against having a football season, and the math is going to be the same everywhere.

There is so much money the B1G is leaving on the table by walking away. Thinking that the people in charge of the B1G are doing it for political theater or because they haven't appropriately weighed their options seems like a tall assumption. I don't see a scenario where Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa all willingly walk away from their biggest advertising boon, piss off their big-name midwestern donors, and hurt all other sports that rely on football income without thoroughly exploring all options and coming to the conclusion that they are essentially forced to do it by the reality of the situation.

The Big Ten isn't some powderpuff organization that takes hits of a few hundred million dollars lightly. They speak money, prestige, and national brand recognition as well as any large business in the country. I find it hard to believe they made this decision without it being their only option once they looked at the information. You can argue with what the underlying cause of the math is, but like I said the math is the math.

I'm not sure the math will be the same everywhere else, because southern schools fully intend to have fans at these games. That was the main financial driver for the Big Ten.

 

[greyhammer90]

I'm not sure the math will be the same everywhere else, because southern schools fully intend to have fans at these games. That was the main financial driver for the Big Ten.

Does the ACC?

 

[T Town Tommy]

I may end up being wrong about this (and to be clear, I really hope I am) but the few guys pounding their chest over the B1G and Pac-12 cancelling need to explain to me how this isn't going to happen to the ACC or SEC. Looking past the dysfunctional mess that is the Pac-12, everyone appears to agree that the Big-10 is not doing this to be altruistic. That means the math is stacked against having a football season, and the math is going to be the same everywhere.

There is so much money the B1G is leaving on the table by walking away. Thinking that the people in charge of the B1G are doing it for political theater or because they haven't appropriately weighed their options seems like a tall assumption. I don't see a scenario where Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa all willingly walk away from their biggest advertising boon, piss off their big-name midwestern donors, and hurt all other sports that rely on football income without thoroughly exploring all options and coming to the conclusion that they are essentially forced to do it by the reality of the situation.

The Big Ten isn't some powderpuff organization that takes hits of a few hundred million dollars lightly. They speak money, prestige, and national brand recognition as well as any large business in the country. I find it hard to believe they made this decision without it being their only option once they looked at the information. You can argue with what the underlying cause of the math is, but like I said the math is the math.

I do believe you are correct when you say the B1G did their due diligence and decided that CFB this fall was too risky. But with no chance this virus is defeated before spring, who are they trying to convince that spring ball is the answer? The same underlying medical concerns will still be present. Time will give us all the answers to what the right decisions were in all this. And time is something the three remaining conferences have right now. Will CFB be played this fall? I had serious doubts before the decision by the B1G and Pac 12 today. We shall see I guess.

 

[Legacy]

Like I said in my post, I'm not making a judgment either way. But you know as well as I do that the risk analysis on a "deal" like this generally becomes clear once you run the numbers and have good access to the information (or lack of information). I could see the Pac-12 coming to a rash decision due to the apparent incompetence that runs to the very top and their cultural non-dependence on cfb. On the other hand, I do not see the B1G cancelling the football season if there was any way they felt they could make it work. That bodes extremely badly for all of football.

I doubt that the general insurance universities regularly obtains that covers the university and all students and staff is not intended to cover a large number of Covid-related illness and disabilities in their risk calculations. Whichever conference you are in, the insurance costs are being calculated and part of the equation for the decision-making.

Iowa State tested all their incoming students and reported 2.2% of their students were positive. Iowa is not suffering much of an outbreak. Not like the Sun Belt states.

 

[tussin]

I may end up being wrong about this (and to be clear, I really hope I am) but the few guys pounding their chest over the B1G and Pac-12 cancelling need to explain to me how this isn't going to happen to the ACC or SEC. Looking past the dysfunctional mess that is the Pac-12, everyone appears to agree that the Big-10 is not doing this to be altruistic. That means the math is stacked against having a football season, and the math is going to be the same everywhere.

There is so much money the B1G is leaving on the table by walking away. Thinking that the people in charge of the B1G are doing it for political theater or because they haven't appropriately weighed their options seems like a tall assumption. I don't see a scenario where Michigan/Ohio State/Penn State/Nebraska/Wisconsin/Iowa all willingly walk away from their biggest advertising boon, piss off their big-name midwestern donors, and hurt all other sports that rely on football income without thoroughly exploring all options and coming to the conclusion that they are essentially forced to do it by the reality of the situation.

The Big Ten isn't some powderpuff organization that takes hits of a few hundred million dollars lightly. They speak money, prestige, and national brand recognition as well as any large business in the country. I find it hard to believe they made this decision without it being their only option once they looked at the information. You can argue with what the underlying cause of the math is, but like I said the math is the math.

Option A: Hold season in the fall, without fans, athletic departments as a whole around the country take a revenue hit of $2B+ (cumulative ticket sales + in-stadium revenue). Fans get football, athletic department remains in financial ruin.

Option B: Kick the can down the road, hope other conferences follow. Hope that we return to business as usual in Spring 2021 with no substantial revenue hit. Athletic departments survive 2020-2021 with minimal damage.

B1G and Pac 12 took calculated risk that they could minimize losses and set the precedent for other conferences to follow with Option B. Option A still meant financial ruin either way. Regarding your question, I don't know how other conferences avoid financial ruin in Option A unless they attempt to have fans at games.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Option A: Hold season in the fall, without fans, athletic department takes a revenue hit of $2B+. Fans get football, athletic department remains in financial ruin.

Option B: Kick the can down the road, hope other conferences follow. Hope that we return to business as usual in Spring 2021 with no substantial revenue hit. Athletic departments survive 2020-2021 with minimal damage.

B1G and Pac 12 took calculated risk that they could minimize losses and set the precedent for other conferences to follow with Option B. Option A still meant financial ruin either way. Regarding your question, I don't know how other conferences avoid financial ruin in Option A unless they attempt to have fans at games.

Option B isn't going to be an option when they get there. The same underlying medical concerns will still be present. Further, lack of ticket sales won't financially ruin most P5 programs. The lack of television revenue will.

 

[IrishLax]

Does the ACC?

I guess.... half the ACC? Not really sure. ND does, and every school south of the Mason-Dixon Line I think does as well.

 

[tussin]

Option B isn't going to be an option when they get there. The same underlying medical concerns will still be present. Further, lack of ticket sales won't financially ruin most P5 programs. The lack of television revenue will.

Lack of ticket and in-stadium revenue will kill some athletic departments. It's not like they operate with fat surpluses -- more sports will need to be cut.

My prediction is that Option B will be there because this isn't actually about medical concerns. Case numbers will decrease in the next year and the media narrative regarding the acceptability of mass gatherings will shift after the election (particularly if a Dem wins), so fans will be allowed in stadiums. It really doesn't matter if the actual risk to fans or players changes between now and then. Really, the only people screwed with the current decision are the fans losing fall football and the current players losing a season.

I hate how much of a pessimist I've become but I think it's true.

 

[calvegas04]

How does everyone think this will effect recruiting considering this season wouldn't effect them.

 

[Circa]

We got Navy guys during WW2. Let's get USC guys during Covid. Make people learn more about our simple way of carrying the country.

 

[tussin]

My one question -- does the NCAA have any card to play here? Can they force the other conferences to postpone?

 

[Valpodoc85]

From what I know about this disease there should be no football this fall and probably next fall too. I think the Big10 has come to Jesus, the SEC and ACC will too. Mass gatherings are how this virus spreads and it is really contagious. The music industry is struggling to come up with a new business model. Of recent, musicians have been making money on concerts/live performance not recorded sales. The current business climate for concerts is decimated. A new paradigm will emerge. College football likewise will adapt and change. Bigger question is what that looks like...

 

[NDRock]

I guess.... half the ACC? Not really sure. ND does, and every school south of the Mason-Dixon Line I think does as well.

I'm actually surprised ND wasn't one of the first to shut it down. I always feel they're afraid of coming across as a football school. The fact that they seem on board with playing the season is interesting.

 

[Circa]

My one question -- does the NCAA have any card to play here? Can they force the other conferences to postpone?

That's like asking If we the American people have any say In our candidates that run the country... Mysteriously financial.

 

[Irish YJ]

Pac 12 at dark is the best way to end a Saturday night

Most of the PAC games will definitely put you to sleep.

My one question -- does the NCAA have any card to play here? Can they force the other conferences to postpone?

IMO, they have a lot less than they used to. I think at some point most P5s will leave anyway to form a new league.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Thank you, I should have just looked it up before. I hadn't heard about the $ part.

The schools/NCAA literally can't give them what they're asking for with compensation and salary caps. Those demands are DOA.

The players all but admitted they knew that as well. The point was to start the process now. Their chip of sitting out to start the discussions is now gone. Bet we don't hear about it now. Strange.

But to be clear, I was talking more about the inevitable claim that would come after schools do everything in their power to preserve football. The actions taken would be so transparent that no reasonable person could claim the players are adequately compensated. The players know it now and are talking about it. This model of CFB is nearing its end.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Strep throat can mess with your heart.

Meningitis kills.

These student athletes have far better chance to be affected by these and STD's than covid.

.03%

This is all bowing down to media pressure and litigation fears. Ridiculous but understandable in the current political climate.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm actually surprised ND wasn't one of the first to shut it down. I always feel they're afraid of coming across as a football school. The fact that they seem on board with playing the season is interesting.

It’s definitely a little odd on the surface, but it makes some sense when you break it down. From everyone I’ve talked to, they had a lot of very smart people put together a plan in the spring of how to make classes/sports a fall reality. Then they executed it with incredible diligence and great results, surpassing expectations, having a 100% clear football team and 99.9% clear student populous.

So now the discussions are... we’re hitting all benchmarks, why would we would change from our path? So in a sense ND is leading by doing everything right (for now), and there isn’t anything any of the decision makers at ND can point to as justification to cancel. And that won’t change until there is a concrete reason to do so.

 

[tussin]

If the rest of the conferences cave and punt on the season, will ND put together a pseudo schedule of exhibitions? Service academies, BYU, Nebraska, maybe a rogue ACC/SEC school or two?

If ND (and other schools) pull that off it could be a big boon for their reputation and for recruiting. The ratings on those games would be huuuuuuge. Rewards almost certainly outweigh the risks.

 

[Irish YJ]

If the rest of the conferences cave and punt on the season, will ND put together a pseudo schedule of exhibitions? Service academies, BYU, Nebraska, maybe a rogue ACC/SEC school or two?

If ND (and other schools) pull that off it could be a big boon for their reputation and for recruiting. The ratings on those games would be huuuuuuge. Rewards almost certainly outweigh the risks.

A buddy and I were talking about the same over the weekend. Army, Navy, AF, BYU, SMU, TX, OK, TAMU, Nebraska, Utah, Clemson, and PU were the teams we kicked around.

Basically service academies, INDs, potential P5 rogues, religious schools, etc, based on proximity, schools we know want to play, and areas that aren't hit that hard by Covid. Word has it that TX and OK and pushing hard to play. The Big12 in general is probably the least hardest hit P5 by Covid (overall).

 

[Bluto]

If the rest of the conferences cave and punt on the season, will ND put together a pseudo schedule of exhibitions? Service academies, BYU, Nebraska, maybe a rogue ACC/SEC school or two?

If ND (and other schools) pull that off it could be a big boon for their reputation and for recruiting. The ratings on those games would be huuuuuuge. Rewards almost certainly outweigh the risks.

Play the blue gold game 12 times?